American League MVP

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

His stats are definitely worthy but playing in Cleveland hurts him from being recognized, they are the most under the radar first in their division team in Major League Baseball.

I get the whole recognition problem, but what JRam does for that team and them being in first is the text book definition of what the MVP should be about. Look at this way if JRam doesn't sign the extension and the front office decides to move him while they can for a better package, the Guards are playing Nolan Jones at 3b and probably would've moved other players in deals and not be in first by a long shot.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Ohtani is a generational talent no doubt but to say that a 2 way player has to come along and top him or he should basically be handed the MVP is a stretch.

2001 Bonds < 2022 Ohtani (because Bonds didn't pitch)

[hxcmilkshake]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Ohtani has been every bit as good as he was last year. Perhaps slightly lesser offensively, but has taken a step forward on the mound. I simply don't see how shouldn't win MVP in a landslide every single year as long as he continues to be a great player on both sides of the ball. It literally shouldn't matter what any other player does until someone else that plays both ways at a high level comes along

That's taking absolutely nothing away from Judge. He's having a historic season and has been the best hitter in the AL. But Ohtani is what, top 10 minimum best hitter in the AL this year? AND a top 5 pitcher in the AL? Pfft. It should be another blowout

It feels like we (in general) are already losing sight of how absolutely incredible it is that Ohtani is able to do what he does, and emblematic of society's tendency to so quickly move on to the next thing. I wouldn't be surprised if Judge won - Chasing 60/Maris, leading what has been perhaps the best team in baseball, New York bias. He has the headlines and attention, while Ohtani wastes away on the inept Angels, and he just had his big nationwide spotlight last year. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Ohtani wins in a blowout. The storyline last year was all about how unprecedented what Ohtani did was. And he follows that up with another season that's been just as good? Why should this year be any different?

Some Ohtani fatigue I think.

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[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by rman112

2001 Bonds < 2022 Ohtani (because Bonds didn't pitch)

IMO the whole 2 way should not come into play when talking about the MVP, overall greatness yes, MVP every season no. If Bonds were clean and still had the season he did in 01 he shouldn't be behind Ohtani for that season just because Ohtani pitched.

[rman112]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

IMO the whole 2 way should not come into play when talking about the MVP, overall greatness yes, MVP every season no. If Bonds were clean and still had the season he did in 01 he shouldn't be behind Ohtani for that season just because Ohtani pitched.

Ohtani's producing. The major difference is his competiion this year is way better.

[spuds1961]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

I get the whole recognition problem, but what JRam does for that team and them being in first is the text book definition of what the MVP should be about. Look at this way if JRam doesn't sign the extension and the front office decides to move him while they can for a better package, the Guards are playing Nolan Jones at 3b and probably would've moved other players in deals and not be in first by a long shot.

Hey if the Guardians don’t sign him I know a team in New York that would love the upgrade at the third base position. I agree take Ramirez out of the lineup the Guardian’s are a below .500 team, take Judge out of the Yankees lineup and they are .500 at best, take Ohtani out of the Angels lineup and they are a below .500 team oh wait they still are.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by rman112

Ohtani's producing. The major difference is his competiion this year is way better.

And see that is where you IMO you can't compare seasons. We just don't know competition, etc. and where did I say Ohtani isn't producing? I am just saying that the 2-way piece of the conversation shouldn't put his season above another, just for that season.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Hey if the Guardians don’t sign him I know a team in New York that would love the upgrade at the third base position. I agree take Ramirez out of the lineup the Guardian’s are a below .500 team, take Judge out of the Yankees lineup and they are .500 at best, take Ohtani out of the Angels lineup and they are a below .500 team oh wait they still are.

Sorry he signed a huge extension with a full no trade clause and very team friendly that was part of my point. I think if you take the overall team of the Guards versus Yankees and Angels, JRam is much more important to the team than the other to there team, even though Ohtani is obviously closer IMO.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Hollywood42

Ohtani has been every bit as good as he was last year. Perhaps slightly lesser offensively, but has taken a step forward on the mound. I simply don't see how shouldn't win MVP in a landslide every single year as long as he continues to be a great player on both sides of the ball. It literally shouldn't matter what any other player does until someone else that plays both ways at a high level comes along

That's taking absolutely nothing away from Judge. He's having a historic season and has been the best hitter in the AL. But Ohtani is what, top 10 minimum best hitter in the AL this year? AND a top 5 pitcher in the AL? Pfft. It should be another blowout

It feels like we (in general) are already losing sight of how absolutely incredible it is that Ohtani is able to do what he does, and emblematic of society's tendency to so quickly move on to the next thing. I wouldn't be surprised if Judge won - Chasing 60/Maris, leading what has been perhaps the best team in baseball, New York bias. He has the headlines and attention, while Ohtani wastes away on the inept Angels, and he just had his big nationwide spotlight last year. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Ohtani wins in a blowout. The storyline last year was all about how unprecedented what Ohtani did was. And he follows that up with another season that's been just as good? Why should this year be any different?

I guess it might also depend on how much we think WAR should be a metric of success, or not. Judge is >1 WAR higher than Ohtani at this point (for those trying to add Batting + Pitching, remember to remove the overlapping WAR added in Pitching). Ohtani is having a great year, and will probably finish 2nd in WAR if both he and Judge keep going on their current pace, but he'd still be 2nd.

[Trueblue]

Does anyone know which WAR metric the writers weigh the most (if any)?

Fangraphs (Judge 7.9, Ohtani 7.0) and Baseballreference (Judge 7.4, Ohtani 7.0) paint a slightly different picture.

[rman112]

Does anyone know the numbers on Ohtani's extra AB's this year because of the new rule?

[SupermanBrandon]

If you're a GM and you were promised both players performances from this year...which player are you taking? Not talking contracts, age, fan appeal, etc. Flat out, which player are you taking based on their stats/performance this year?

[JRX]

Ohtani is tied for 3rd in hr in al and 5th in ks among pitchers. If Judge finishes strong I still think the award is his to lose but let's not pretend what ohtani is doing is no big deal.

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[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

If you're a GM and you were promised both players performances from this year...which player are you taking? Not talking contracts, age, fan appeal, etc. Flat out, which player are you taking based on their stats/performance this year?

That would be determined by team need more than likely.

Now if you're the Yankees, the answer is both. They have Judge and offered him a very good contract for his age and they tried to trade for Ohtaini at the deadline but then the Angels took him off the block (possibly because of the sale).

The curious thing would have been if the Yankees were successful in trading for Ohtaini, depending on the package that went to the Angels, his days of DH may have been very limited to non-existent considering the Yankees like to use the DH role to rest older veterans and/or park Stanton there.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Does anyone know which WAR metric the writers weigh the most (if any)?

Fangraphs (Judge 7.9, Ohtani 7.0) and Baseballreference (Judge 7.4, Ohtani 7.0) paint a slightly different picture.

I'd have to look at it more closely, but I think Fangraphs has Ohtani's offensive WAR at 3.0. And something like ~20% of his playing days are those he pitches, where he also bats. Thus something like 0.6 of his WAR gets double counted, because Fangraphs includes the batting war on days pitched also in the pitching WAR. Thus his combined fWAR should be something like 6.3.

RE: baseball reference, remember they use OPS+ as an input to offensive WAR. And that metric tends to over value players with high SLG. In general I'd discourage using bWAR for batting. And I have no opinion on their pitching, but have heard others make similar complaints for bWAR pitching.

[Mister2Bits]

I dont know who is going to get it. There are some valid arguments for both (and really bad ones too).

Both players are the focus of my modern PC, so I'm just going to sit back and enjoy September and October. My two dudes are killing it.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by pewe

I'd have to look at it more closely, but I think Fangraphs has Ohtani's offensive WAR at 3.0. And something like ~20% of his playing days are those he pitches, where he also bats. Thus something like 0.6 of his WAR gets double counted, because Fangraphs includes the batting war on days pitched also in the pitching WAR. Thus his combined fWAR should be something like 6.3.

RE: baseball reference, remember they use OPS+ as an input to offensive WAR. And that metric tends to over value players with high SLG. In general I'd discourage using bWAR for batting. And I have no opinion on their pitching, but have heard others make similar complaints for bWAR pitching.

Hitting and pitching war use completely different stats, how is it being double counted?

[pewe]

Originally Posted by JRX

Hitting and pitching war use completely different stats, how is it being double counted?

Originally Posted by Trueblue

+1, I'm not sure why his WAR would be double counted on days he pitches.

I think the one thing that seems consensus is that WAR itself varies based on source and is very important but not 100% - everything.

fWAR pitching WAR includes the results from batting on the days pitched.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by JRX

Hitting and pitching war use completely different stats, how is it being double counted?

+1, I'm not sure why his WAR would be double counted on days he pitches.

I think the one thing that seems consensus is that WAR itself varies based on source and is very important but not 100% - everything.

[calculusdork]

My gut feeling ...

This will be the year that playoff team vs non-playoff team will matter to voters. Yankees are great, Angels are terrible.

Is it right or wrong? Not for me to say. But Judge wins in a landslide.

Just my take. Signed, Random Guy on the Interwebz

[hammertime]

It feels like they're neck-and-neck right now and it will all come down to the last month of the season, but it seems like the Vegas odds just keep diverging in Judge's favor so what do I know.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by pewe

fWAR pitching WAR includes the results from batting on the days pitched.

I don't see that anywhere in there glossary. NL pitchers do have hitting war for past seasons though the glossary is also unclear how hitting war is calculated for pitchers. My guess is that its in relation to other hitting pitchers back when they all hit.

[pete2345]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

My gut feeling ...

This will be the year that playoff team vs non-playoff team will matter to voters. Yankees are great, Angels are terrible.

Is it right or wrong? Not for me to say. But Judge wins in a landslide.

Just my take. Signed, Random Guy on the Interwebz

As it should be what value do you bring to a team when they don't even sniff the playoffs. Ohtani and trout should have 0 mvps they add no value to their team.

[jlzinck]

If the Angels had the record that the Orioles have Ohtani would be my pick.
But if the angels were to lose every remaining game with Ohtani going OFF and Judge slumps he Ohtani will win even though it makes no sense

[pewe]

Originally Posted by JRX

I don't see that anywhere in there glossary. NL pitchers do have hitting war for past seasons though the glossary is also unclear how hitting war is calculated for pitchers. My guess is that its in relation to other hitting pitchers back when they all hit.

Its possible they updated it to now exclude it, but my guess is they didn't build a custom model for Ohtani alone.

Why? To make this change will cost them real development time and effort. Given the dire financial straights I think Fangraphs has been in they will probably struggle to prioritize that time/cost for one player. And they will probably leave the existing approach in place for the time being.

That is until they do, and make a splashy announcement about it to help drive eyeballs. But until they do that splashy announcement, I'm betting they still have the old model in place.