American League MVP
 

I've been updating the Judge thread with the MVP stuff, but I think this race deserves its own thread.

I think it's still Judge, but Ohtani has been giving him a serious run for his money these past few days.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392597]I've been updating the Judge thread with the MVP stuff, but I think this race deserves its own thread.

I think it's still Judge, but Ohtani has been giving him a serious run for his money these past few days.[/QUOTE]

I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.

[QUOTE=rngrdanny22;18392598]I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.[/QUOTE]

59 HR with measurable WAR lead = Ohtani

60 HR with measurable WAR lead = Judge

It’s Judge, even without 60 HRs.

[QUOTE=Skipscards;18392603]It’s Judge, even without 60 HRs.[/QUOTE]

It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392601]59 HR with measurable WAR lead = Ohtani

60 HR with measurable WAR lead = Judge[/QUOTE]

Hey, you asked, and I answered.

Truthfully, I think he has to break the AL record, so 62+. That milestone would absolutely guarantee it.

Ohtani has a good shot at Top-5 for AL Cy Young. Add in the fact that he'll likely have 30+ HR's, and that's tough for Judge to overcome with hitting alone. We saw it last year with Guerrero and Ohtani was unanimous.

As of right now, Fangraphs has Judge at 8.0 WAR to Ohtani's 6.8. They are 1-2 in the AL. If that gap closes, I think the voters give Ohtani the nod because "nobody's done this since Babe Ruth".

Both fantastic players that deserve the award in nearly any given year. This one will likely depend on the writer's opinion and logic.

That said, anyone putting down the other player just because they want the other one to win is an idiot and should just go home. 50+ homers? 200Ks and 30+ HRs? Learn to appreciate the game - what a great year in baseball!

[QUOTE=rman112;18392609]It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.[/QUOTE]

True. And Ohtani is amazing. It’s possible I’m wrong, but sometimes the writers just like to spread things around. Funny thing is, even with time missed, Trout is having a pretty great season too. It’s a shame he missed so much time or he’d be right there.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392609]It's going to be interesting if Judge ends up the WAR leader. Because the same people that used the stat for Trout all those years will be willing to overlook it for Ohtani.[/QUOTE]

Trout doesn't play two ways. Bill James was not factoring or even thinking about a two-way player when he invented the metric. I'm not saying it sways the argument either way, but it's not that straight forward.

[QUOTE=Trueblue;18392627]Trout doesn't play two ways. Bill James was not factoring or even thinking about a two-way player when he invented the metric. I'm not saying it sways the argument either way, but it's not that straight forward.[/QUOTE]

It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.

[QUOTE=rngrdanny22;18392598]I still think unless Judge gets to 60+, it's Ohtani.[/QUOTE]

It’s going to be Judge and I fully understand how valuable Ohtani is as a pitcher and hitter.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392635]It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.[/QUOTE]

Yes, clearly. What about the extra roster spot? If your belief is that it adds no value, then fair enough.

[QUOTE=Trueblue;18392637]Yes, clearly. What about the extra roster spot? If your belief is that it adds no value, then fair enough.[/QUOTE]

Not sure it's that simple. If you go that route, wouldn't you also need to view the negatives? You lose the older, injury-prone guys like Rendon and Trout if they don't play the field.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392640]Not sure it's that simple. If you go that route, wouldn't you also need to view the negatives? You lose the older, injury-prone guys like Rendon and Trout if they don't play the field.[/QUOTE]

What you're advocating/saying is also exactly what I'm saying. Do you count the replacement roster member as a replacement level player or the actual player that got added in real life? It's simply not straightforward what that's worth. Is it enough to cover -3.0 WAR in variance? Obviously not, but it's worth noting.

Two seemingly great guys, on wildly different teams (success wise), both balling. This is going to be a fun finish to the season and was mentioned, Trouty would have a seat at the table if he didn't miss so much time.

[QUOTE=Trueblue;18392650]What you're advocating/saying is also exactly what I'm saying. Do you count the replacement roster member as a replacement level player or the actual player that got added in real life? It's simply not straightforward what that's worth. Is it enough to cover -3.0 WAR in variance? Obviously not, but it's worth noting.[/QUOTE]

That would seemingly open the can of worms of considering other factors besides only that player themselves.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392635]It's still taking both his hitting and his pitching and adding them up.[/QUOTE]

Yes…and? A DH gets dinged because he doesn’t play defense, why wouldn’t Ohtani get credit for being an incredible hitter and pitcher?

[QUOTE=rman112;18392658]That would seemingly open the can of worms of considering other factors besides only that player themselves.[/QUOTE]

Isn't that what WAR is? If everyone hit .300 with 30 homers and you did the same (Assuming neutral defense), you'd have 0 WAR.

[QUOTE=atk825;18392662]Yes…and? A DH gets dinged because he doesn’t play defense, why wouldn’t Ohtani get credit for being an incredible hitter and pitcher?[/QUOTE]

How is he not?

[QUOTE=Trueblue;18392663]Isn't that what WAR is? If everyone hit .300 with 30 homers and you did the same (Assuming neutral defense), you'd have 0 WAR.[/QUOTE]

Ah, Ok. I get what you're saying.

It should be Ohtani but likely will go to Judge. Voters will want to pick someone new and Judge is Yankee.

It would be different if Ohtani was doing average at both but he is a legit Top 5 pitcher while also being a Top 25 batter in the AL.

[QUOTE=rman112;18392667]How is he not?[/QUOTE]

He is. I may be confusing your point that just adding up pitching and hitting isn’t fair.

[QUOTE=Bcr;18392675]It should be Ohtani but likely will go to Judge. Voters will want to pick someone new and Judge is Yankee.

It would be different if Ohtani was doing average at both but he is a legit Top 5 pitcher while also being a Top 25 batter in the AL.[/QUOTE]

Top 25 batter in the AL? He's Top-7 or better in the AL in OPS, OPS+, wRC, HR, RBI. I'd say he's objectively a top-10 AL hitter.

[QUOTE=atk825;18392680]He is. I may be confusing your point that just adding up pitching and hitting isn’t fair.[/QUOTE]

Nah, I wasn't trying to say that.

Judge and its not close that roadside attraction ohtani got his lucky MVP last season.