Sealed boxes for long term

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by rangeljon

I bought an NT case at $14,500. High buy right now on dealer site is $22,000. I think that's a bump.

It's also easier to double you money when the product is $500-$700 out of the gate as opposed to $3000-$4000.

Either way, I don't regret the $7500 jump. These things are still trending higher, with numerous breakers still offering a substantial amount.

You’re also one of the few who can get cases that low and possibly the 1% of the hobby who knows what dealernet is.

I know my LCS moved his case for $20K 2 months ago. I remember when the product dropped on BO it was $17K. They moved their initial small allotment for $13K a case.

I also remember when they were buying the FOTL boxes for $11K+.

Just showing the potential downside. Or that the upside isn’t as high at it used to be and it’s hard to project out what wax does when everybody hoards it.

In the end anything you can buy low and on and sell higher on will be profitable. I’m just not sure at this point wax is the move as opposed to the cards themselves. It’s definitely safer.

[Ginger Ale]

Originally Posted by kellmuff

I'm starting to look at 5+ year investments and sealed boxes seem to be a surefire bet to increase in value.

Thoughts on years/sets that aren't outrageously expensive right now?

Any big 2021 releases to try and grab?

Cheers

I would suggest buying a case of 2020-21 Prizm Basketball and sitting on it for 5 years.

[Brobocop]

People keep saying, "This product was only $X amount 18 months ago, now look at it now!!" I always keep in mind that as quickly as things can go up, they can come down. Starting to consider selling my small stash of Fanatics Prizm and Optic sets for close to $10k and calling it a day. I'd never have imagined that 12 months ago, my small $600 output would have become almost $10k. It's ridiculous.

[CoolG]

Bought my 88-89 fleer 12 box case bkb on closeout in 1991 for $300 sold it about 8 months ago for same price as the new mid engine c8 2020 corvette.
Been buying sealed wax for 30 plus years and has worked out pretty well. Some swing and misses and some massive home runs

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

People keep saying, "This product was only $X amount 18 months ago, now look at it now!!" I always keep in mind that as quickly as things can go up, they can come down. Starting to consider selling my small stash of Fanatics Prizm and Optic sets for close to $10k and calling it a day. I'd never have imagined that 12 months ago, my small $600 output would have become almost $10k. It's ridiculous.

It's all in the draft classes. The last 2 years have been an anomaly. I still think this year wont be a complete dud like people were hoping. Prices will still stay steady not like Luka and Zion but decent. Next year things are gonna heat up again with another big class so i wouldn't expect things to cool off too much. I expect it to pick right back up again.

[RogerGodahell]

There's a lot more money in the game now from influencers. They brought waves of new investors looking for alternate investments. Just look at Vegas Dave and Whatever his name is Garvy they've got millions of people interested in sports cards now.

[clocsta2323]

Don't you guys get tired of talking about the SAME THING over and over and over again?

[RogerGodahell]

Youtube helps too tremendously with people flashing $1000,$10,000, $100,000 cards like fine artwork or jewelery.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by clocsta2323

Don't you guys get tired of talking about the SAME THING over and over and over again?

No because i love it. And i've been sick for a week and i've got nothing better to do.

[PelicanFly]

Originally Posted by kobemagee29

it has nothing to do with 1/1's and other cards being pulled. it has to do with supply and demand. Once the stuff dries up, it goes up. And it only takes 1 good rc and boxes go crazy. Take a look at what just 2017-18 retail prizm now goes for. I bought a 20 box case at release i believe for around $1200, now it sell for around 20k a case.

Of course supply & demand has a lot to due with it. I'm saying demand is LESS when the goods are pulled, im NOT saying the boxes are worthless...

Do you think 18-19 Flawless would cost more or less than it does now if the Luka 1/1 and Trae 1/1 were still undiscovered?

EVERYTHING has gone up in the last year. You can't say "well look whats happening now" when OP wants to HOLD for 5 years.

[rangeljon]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

You’re also one of the few who can get cases that low and possibly the 1% of the hobby who knows what dealernet is.

I know my LCS moved his case for $20K 2 months ago. I remember when the product dropped on BO it was $17K. They moved their initial small allotment for $13K a case.

I also remember when they were buying the FOTL boxes for $11K+.

Just showing the potential downside. Or that the upside isn’t as high at it used to be and it’s hard to project out what wax does when everybody hoards it.

In the end anything you can buy low and on and sell higher on will be profitable. I’m just not sure at this point wax is the move as opposed to the cards themselves. It’s definitely safer.

I bought my case off, not on, Dealernet. But these could be had for similar price to anyone ahead of launch. $12-$15 were a lot of early-presale prices.

Last eBay case sale was $21,999.99. That's still a solid return a few months over if initial case buyer was able to secure in that range.

Nothing compares to 13-14, 17-18, and 18-19 near-ish term.

But I'm gonna continue to hold my case for as long as I can because I still see these eventually being $10k per box.

That's me, though. I'm not a short-term investor.

[mcwildcats]

The other big thing on holding sealed LT is you have to ensure the key cards aren't redemptions. This is not a big concern on releases like Prizm as the key cards are not the autos. Would rather the best rookies still not be redemption autos but the base silvers are the much bigger key. This is more of a concern I think for stuff like NT.

[ThoseBackPages]

wise move OP!

stick to the meat and potatoes and you'll be fine

[mr10pin]

For 19-20 BKB which would you rather have to hold for 12 months+?

Sealed Case of NT

Equivalent Value Prizm Retail (Mix of Blaster, Mega, Hanger, Cello)

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

What happens when everybody has that same mindset and nobody opens boxes though?

I don’t disagree with your premise at all. Just don’t see much wax being opened outside of the first week or two of a product’s release.

Never ever ever ever ever ever never ever happen

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

For 19-20 BKB which would you rather have to hold for 12 months+?

Sealed Case of NT

Equivalent Value Prizm Retail (Mix of Blaster, Mega, Hanger, Cello)

bolded

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

For 19-20 BKB which would you rather have to hold for 12 months+?

Sealed Case of NT

Equivalent Value Prizm Retail (Mix of Blaster, Mega, Hanger, Cello)

I'd rather have a sealed case of Prizm Hobby over NT. Just look at the price difference in sales. That's my personal preference. I had a chance to buy 4 cases of 18 NT but the guy was a thief and stole my money. But that's a long story.

[rangeljon]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I'd rather have a sealed case of Prizm Hobby over NT. Just look at the price difference in sales. That's my personal preference. I had a chance to buy 4 cases of 18 NT but the guy was a thief and stole my money. But that's a long story.

I can control myself around a case of NT.

I cannot say the same for a case of Prizm.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mr10pin

For 19-20 BKB which would you rather have to hold for 12 months+?

Sealed Case of NT

Equivalent Value Prizm Retail (Mix of Blaster, Mega, Hanger, Cello)

This and it's not close.

It's such a strange flip. Nobody 5 years ago (sans TPB) would have said retail is king and don't buy hobby. Now that's all anybody says, and they're not wrong.

Originally Posted by cardsin47

Never ever ever ever ever ever never ever happen

Some would say it's currently trending that way. There was less 19/20 wax busted (hobby) than any year prior. With card prices trending the way they have for 2020, you'd think the opposite would be true and people would be itching to scratch those lotto tickets. It hasn't been the case.

Random thought, how many 19/20 singles would be available if Panini didn't make product available at the retail level?

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by rangeljon

I can control myself around a case of NT.

I cannot say the same for a case of Prizm.

You never take them out of the box is the trick.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by PelicanFly

Of course supply & demand has a lot to due with it. I'm saying demand is LESS when the goods are pulled, im NOT saying the boxes are worthless...

Do you think 18-19 Flawless would cost more or less than it does now if the Luka 1/1 and Trae 1/1 were still undiscovered?

EVERYTHING has gone up in the last year. You can't say "well look whats happening now" when OP wants to HOLD for 5 years.

Flawless will continue to go up regardless what has already been pulled. What has been already pulled has nothing to do with it. Trout superfractor has been pulled years ago, but that hasn't stopped the huge increase every year for what the boxes are going for

[mc1]

Originally Posted by kobemagee29

Flawless will continue to go up regardless what has already been pulled. What has been already pulled has nothing to do with it. Trout superfractor has been pulled years ago, but that hasn't stopped the huge increase every year for what the boxes are going for

Value of sealed boxes is due to both the possibility of whats in the boxes and decreasing supply of those boxes.

Theres some boxes out there with junk but since theres less and less due to being stashed or opened... they continue to go up.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by mc1

Value of sealed boxes is due to both the possibility of whats in the boxes and decreasing supply of those boxes.

This is undeniably correct

[Anejo]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

People keep saying, "This product was only $X amount 18 months ago, now look at it now!!" I always keep in mind that as quickly as things can go up, they can come down. Starting to consider selling my small stash of Fanatics Prizm and Optic sets for close to $10k and calling it a day. I'd never have imagined that 12 months ago, my small $600 output would have become almost $10k. It's ridiculous.

I have been pondering this every single day, in the same boat with so much sealed wax (I've been hoarding various retail/fotl since 2017). Sold a bit mid-year which was obviously a mistake as things have gone much higher (yes profit is profit but still hate seeing money left on the table). Every day I keep thinking it can't go any higher and it does without any true dips lately.

[Anejo]

[QUOTE=GeechQuest;16806214]This and it's not close.




Some would say it's currently trending that way. There was less 19/20 wax busted (hobby) than any year prior. With card prices trending the way they have for 2020, you'd think the opposite would be true and people would be itching to scratch those lotto tickets. It hasn't been the case.

I may be wrong but I think more wax is being busted than ever before. If you go on all the social media sites you see new people every day selling spots and breaks more than ever. And most of these flippers in my opinion aren't selling to those who hold, these guys are busting.