First Buzz: 2020-21 Topps Merlin Chrome soccer cards

[kyle121592]

Originally Posted by RicEllis85

Sounds like topps cancelled all of the blaster preorders.


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Where you hear this?

[RicEllis85]

Originally Posted by kyle121592

Where you hear this?

My vendor told me Topps cancelled his orders. Reached out to vendor 2 and he said the same.


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[DJP73]

Originally Posted by RicEllis85

My vendor told me Topps cancelled his orders. Reached out to vendor 2 and he said the same.


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Not sure which Vendors you use. I just talked to my Dist, He said he did not hear anything. He's one of he big ones . So you would think he would know for sure.

[RicEllis85]

Originally Posted by DJP73

Not sure which Vendors you use. I just talked to my Dist, He said he did not hear anything. He's one of he big ones . So you would think he would know for sure.

If he’s one of the big ones maybe he’s still getting his fulfilled. Could be just the smaller guys.


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[DJP73]

Originally Posted by RicEllis85

If he’s one of the big ones maybe he’s still getting his fulfilled. Could be just the smaller guys.


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Sometimes the smaller guys play games also. Alot of Blasters have been sold by many retailers also. No cancellations as of now. You never know

[RicEllis85]

Originally Posted by DJP73

Sometimes the smaller guys play games also. Alot of Blasters have been sold by many retailers also. No cancellations as of now. You never know

Pretty disappointing. Hopefully you get all of yours! Good luck my man!


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[DJP73]

Well just got a email from Dist, I was cut to 3% of what I ordered on Retail for Merlin. Anyone else get this from there suppliers

[wilsonsingles]

Originally Posted by DJP73

Well just got a email from Dist, I was cut to 3% of what I ordered on Retail for Merlin. Anyone else get this from there suppliers

same for me...(

[LittleJimmies]

Was thinking a bit about this product being the only product to cover Europa League, and how that could end up being a big draw. Here's a quick list of guys who could/should be the best of the Topps RC's this year, and Merlin will be the only product to have RC of Saka, Tonali, and David. Those are some pretty big names to be limited to a single product.

Camavinga
Kulusevski
Saka
Greenwood
Tonali
Gravenberch
Rodrygo
David

Edit: And if anyone has any new news on the blasters, please share. Those seem like the clear choice with the 3 aqua refractors per.

[anm2231]

Boxes have jumped from $400 to $750...guess this has something to do with the recently dropped Merlin 95...no one seemed to be really buying this Merlin chrome til then..not that no one was buying it, but 2 weeks ago i could’ve gotten it for $290/box

[YayNJ]

$750 flol

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by anm2231

Boxes have jumped from $400 to $750...guess this has something to do with the recently dropped Merlin 95...no one seemed to be really buying this Merlin chrome til then..not that no one was buying it, but 2 weeks ago i could’ve gotten it for $290/box

The rate at which they got to $750 is surprising, but that they got there isn't. Consider all this set has going for it compared to Prizm and all the other Topps releases and $750 is pretty reasonable. Don't get me wrong, the price is crazy, just less crazy than other likely lesser products prices.

[Aultimate21]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

Was thinking a bit about this product being the only product to cover Europa League, and how that could end up being a big draw. Here's a quick list of guys who could/should be the best of the Topps RC's this year, and Merlin will be the only product to have RC of Saka, Tonali, and David. Those are some pretty big names to be limited to a single product.

Camavinga
Kulusevski
Saka
Greenwood
Tonali
Gravenberch
Rodrygo
David

Edit: And if anyone has any new news on the blasters, please share. Those seem like the clear choice with the 3 aqua refractors per.

misread

[bsnsports0605]

Boxes back down to $400

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by bsnsports0605

Boxes back down to $400

As someone who ordered a case at around $300/box and saw my hypothetical profits go up to around $5k, I don't love the price. As someone who thinks this product has huge longterm upside, I love being able to double down affordably. If Topps does us right with the checklist, can't lose at $400. Having the only Saka Topps RC alone justifies the price.

[Mitch]

I wonder how that Saka RC will be perceived? I think many are going to see it as a bit of a joke; I'd have preferred it to not have been there for some sense or order within the hobby, but I'm also sure Topps have been desperate to crowbar Arsenal and Saka into a set for a while for exactly this.

[bsnsports0605]

Originally Posted by Mitch

I wonder how that Saka RC will be perceived? I think many are going to see it as a bit of a joke; I'd have preferred it to not have been there for some sense or order within the hobby, but I'm also sure Topps have been desperate to crowbar Arsenal and Saka into a set for a while for exactly this.

I’ll perceive it just like prizm…just another card

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by bsnsports0605

I’ll perceive it just like prizm…just another card

I agree with the Prizm part, but interestingly Saka's Prizm isn't treated like just another card either. It's treated more like his RC (judged by price) even though Panini has a labelled RC for him in the previous year.

[reddragonthe]

I'm skeptical here. I still wish they'd drop in a caricature chase. We need to see a checklist but there is a lot to work with within 100 card base set and the inserts. So we could be surprised by inclusions and exclusions.

As for what would support this price? I'm probably more pessimistic than others. I also have very little coming so no big worry either way. I just don't see things here adding up to something that's a rocket ship:

They printed a lot of it.

They made add'l SKUs and opened the door for more.

It's got a zillion parallels.

If the only really "new" cards to chase are guys already in Panini products (some over the last 2 seasons) with established markets already showing us they AREN'T huge chase guys... how is that going to make this a hot commodity?

I hope it is cheap and fun, honestly. For me, that's best case. Make this the product that gets drug down to MA Chrome Bunde levels. No one wants it. It sits and sits and sits and then we can have fun again with a product just to open it. I don't think it gets to THAT level, of course, but a guy can dream.

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by reddragonthe

I'm skeptical here. I still wish they'd drop in a caricature chase. We need to see a checklist but there is a lot to work with within 100 card base set and the inserts. So we could be surprised by inclusions and exclusions.

As for what would support this price? I'm probably more pessimistic than others. I also have very little coming so no big worry either way. I just don't see things here adding up to something that's a rocket ship:

They printed a lot of it.

They made add'l SKUs and opened the door for more.

It's got a zillion parallels.

If the only really "new" cards to chase are guys already in Panini products (some over the last 2 seasons) with established markets already showing us they AREN'T huge chase guys... how is that going to make this a hot commodity?

I hope it is cheap and fun, honestly. For me, that's best case. Make this the product that gets drug down to MA Chrome Bunde levels. No one wants it. It sits and sits and sits and then we can have fun again with a product just to open it. I don't think it gets to THAT level, of course, but a guy can dream.

What are you basing how much they printed on? Right now our only info is that Merlin has about half the number of parallels beyond base refractors compared to TC.

[reddragonthe]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

What are you basing how much they printed on? Right now our only info is that Merlin has about half the number of parallels beyond base refractors compared to TC.

Merlin sell sheet only has that amount. UCL and Bunde both went over their sell sheets (by a lot). They only have a small number of Hobby exclusive - so I think that means we see a fair bit of retail here too. So you add those things up and I think we are looking at another 2,500-3,000 cases equivalent.

If you just look at listed parallel volume it is close to what 19-20 UCL had in terms of volume (100 players, ~1500 parallels plus refractors per player). And they've kept insertion rates RELATIVELY close for parallels since chrome of last year. I think Topps has stumbled upon what they think is a formula here for hit rate. That would put it at 1500 equivalent cases (which again, people argue is a small amount but that was the whole run for the flagship product a year ago).

Now you take some portion of that (I'm using the 20-21 UCL number of about 40% parallel insertion in retail for the non-exclusives of the total volume of said parallel) and expand it into a retail product with a relatively lower hit rate, and you can produce more. That gets me to a guesstimate of 2,000-2,500 equivalent cases.

That doesn't include parallels for the rookie image variations. That doesn't include any adjustment (higher or lower) in the insertion rate. And that doesn't account for add'l SKUs and parallels they've added since they produced the sell sheet.

That makes it just a question (to me) of if we see 2,500 equivalent (about 50:50 by base volume between hobby and retail) or if they add to it. And then a question of if you think 2,500 is a lot for a tertiary product raised from the dead in a year of (recently) unprecedented volume of hobby products.

But I would say FLOOR is definitely 1500 here for what we know. And given a bunch of it is retail, I think that's reasonably low.

[bsnsports0605]

I see $350 now

[netmasters]

We have a checklist and they thankfully used the Europa League license to get some new RCs in.

https://www.cardboardconnection.com/...a-league-cards

[jubei777]

LCS said Topps resolicited to them if they want to keep allocation or cancel. Price practically doubled he said but at least there’s a checklist out.

[cj828282]

Under $300 per box now. Needs to go down more! What should this be priced at? $150?