Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Floridacardguy]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

GUYS...........it's almost as if Mahomes isn't broken!

Excellent game yesterday.

Makes the AFC West wide open again. Broncos could easily be 2 & 1 now instead of 1 &2, Chargers just got flat out handled yesterday and Herbie played down to the Giants, and Mahomes looked like Mahomes from a few yrs ago.

I think the only team we can remove from the equation is the Raiders. They aren't going anyplace with Geno at the wheel he's awful, if you bottle up Jeanty they got nothing

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by chiefsncards275

Where do you guys put in Mahomes in the early
MVP race? Allen is the clear #1 right now but after that I feel Mahomes isn’t too far behind.


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Originally Posted by dantheman514

It's definitely wide open with Mahomes taking a step up yesterday while Herbert took a step back.

Originally Posted by TSonn

It's Allen's to lose.

But let's check back in around week 14 when we know how the season shook out.

It's so early, but right now your top 5 in

QBR:
Jones
Allen
Mahomes
Dak
Lamar

Expected Points Added:
Dak
Allen
Mahomes
Jones
Herbert

Gives you a good indication of who's playing well.

I'd love to say Jalen Hurts, but the guy is throwing for 152 yards per game. His job is not the same as the other guys listed here.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

GUYS...........it's almost as if Mahomes isn't broken!

Excellent game yesterday.

Hopefully starting off slow provided some much needed spark and focus.

With 3 straight SB runs and 5 out 6 SB appearances it's probably easy to start slipping on little things that make a difference with prep and focus.

Adding Worthy back had a huge impact. Can't wait for Rice to rejoin.

[tjforce]

Double post...

Anyways, good day for the Oline too. Any time you don't hear Jawaan Taylor's name called is a good one.

[Rabs]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'd love to say Jalen Hurts, but the guy is throwing for 152 yards per game. His job is not the same as the other guys listed here.

Hurts completed 0 passes in the 2nd half yesterday. They still won.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Hurts completed 0 passes in the 2nd half yesterday. They still won.

That is WILD. That team is rolling. I heard they've won 20/21 games? Hurts absolutely does not get enough credit. Probably a good time to buy to be honest. At some point people won't be able to ignore it.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Rabs

Hurts completed 0 passes in the 2nd half yesterday. They still won.

Originally Posted by pejc300

That is WILD. That team is rolling. I heard they've won 20/21 games? Hurts absolutely does not get enough credit. Probably a good time to buy to be honest. At some point people won't be able to ignore it.

The bet with Hurts is that he becomes this generation's Troy Aikman.

In 70 career games he has 90 passing TDs and is averaging 188 yards passing a game. He has all the running stats too, but the credit for those get diluted too from all the tush push TDs.

But winning cures most. And his way is to just keep the machine going enough to win Super Bowls.

But he doesn't shrink in the moment the way guys like Lamar and Herbert do. Or disappear from the playoffs years at a time like Burrow does.

[Earlsnake07]

Originally Posted by wharfrat7624

Incoming…love this patch.




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Nice pickup....curious the $ range you gave. Only asking because I have a raw one (not as nice of patches).



Good game from the O and the D.

Crazy the difference 1 player and having backs against the wall - several people basically saying it was a must win game.

Hope the true believes were able to pick up a few patties while the dip happened.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It's so early, but right now your top 5 in

QBR:
Jones
Allen
Mahomes
Dak
Lamar

Expected Points Added:
Dak
Allen
Mahomes
Jones
Herbert

Gives you a good indication of who's playing well.

I'd love to say Jalen Hurts, but the guy is throwing for 152 yards per game. His job is not the same as the other guys listed here.

The EPA stat is clearly off for football then.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Tea10

The EPA stat is clearly off for football then.

Either that or you just don't understand it.

Dak has more QB action plays that the rest of those guys on the list, besides Herbert, who has 1 more than Dak does. He leads the league in passing attempts and has played pretty well. He leading the league in passing yard and completions as well, by a large margin. He's been pretty efficient too, so that kind of volume is going to result in a lot of Expected Points Added.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Earlsnake07

Nice pickup....curious the $ range you gave. Only asking because I have a raw one (not as nice of patches).



Good game from the O and the D.

Crazy the difference 1 player and having backs against the wall - several people basically saying it was a must win game.

Hope the true believes were able to pick up a few patties while the dip happened.

There was never a dip. The opposite actually -- prices have been constantly increasing ever since the Chiefs lost the super bowl. Which on the surface makes no sense except that the whole sports card market is in the middle of an insane bull run for numbered cards of superstars. Patty's market is very high (I would say way too high), but supply/demand I suppose.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Either that or you just don't understand it.

Dak has more QB action plays that the rest of those guys on the list, besides Herbert, who has 1 more than Dak does. He leads the league in passing attempts and has played pretty well. He leading the league in passing yard and completions as well, by a large margin. He's been pretty efficient too, so that kind of volume is going to result in a lot of Expected Points Added.

I think it's the former.

Probably the metric isn't that good at really calculating how good a QB is. Very similar I'd imagine to how Ryan Tannehill was ranked #1 in the league by PFF in 2019.

Just like how PFF consistently rated Cousins/Carr/Tannehill/Dak (same guy) very highly. Even though none of them were ever a top 5 QB in the league, and at best some of them might, at times, have been lower end top 10 or a bit outside.

PFF consistently graded them far above their actual skill and value on the field. I've watched 3/4 Cowboys games this season, I didn't think Dak was particularly good. For whatever that's worth, but EPA and advanced stats applied to football sometimes completely suck. Hence why Dak is ranked #1.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Tea10

I think it's the former.

Probably the metric isn't that good at really calculating how good a QB is. Very similar I'd imagine to how Ryan Tannehill was ranked #1 in the league by PFF in 2019.

Just like how PFF consistently rated Cousins/Carr/Tannehill/Dak (same guy) very highly. Even though none of them were ever a top 5 QB in the league, and at best some of them might, at times, have been lower end top 10 or a bit outside.

PFF consistently graded them far above their actual skill and value on the field. I've watched 3/4 Cowboys games this season, I didn't think Dak was particularly good. For whatever that's worth, but EPA and advanced stats applied to football sometimes completely suck. Hence why Dak is ranked #1.

Dak is playing incredible so far.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

Dak is playing incredible so far.

He's played in 4 games total. Two of those games have gone to OT.

Dak is a career stat padder who's been a fringe top 10 QB on and off but also never at any point cracked the top 5 or top 6-7 credibly. He's thrown the ball more than anyone in the league this year - 166 attempts.

His AY/A (Air yards per attempt) is 20th in the league, below the league average. Which explains why he has a near 73% completion rate partially.

I don't care much for rating and QBR, I think they are flawed stats but obviously matter to an extent. He's 14th in rating and 15th in QBR.

He has a 6-3 TD-INT ratio which isn't "good" really in modern football, maybe in 1990-2006 it was. Not really since ~2008-2010 onward.

I like PFF generally, I used to follow them a lot. But there's this weird short circuit that happens when they analyze a guy like Dak or 2019 Tannehill, Cousins, Carr, etc. It's like they can't distinguish value from high comp%, not making too many mistakes, and stat padding it up relatively. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I don't think Dak has done anything special, he's played deep into two OT games.

In his other two games, 50% of a short 4 game season thus far - he has 188 yards and 0 TD + 251 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT --- in games where the offense scored 20 and 14 points total. He's your leader in EPA?

[Earlsnake07]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

There was never a dip. The opposite actually -- prices have been constantly increasing ever since the Chiefs lost the super bowl. Which on the surface makes no sense except that the whole sports card market is in the middle of an insane bull run for numbered cards of superstars. Patty's market is very high (I would say way too high), but supply/demand I suppose.

Yea...I was being facetious about the dip

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Tea10

I think it's the former.

Probably the metric isn't that good at really calculating how good a QB is. Very similar I'd imagine to how Ryan Tannehill was ranked #1 in the league by PFF in 2019.

Just like how PFF consistently rated Cousins/Carr/Tannehill/Dak (same guy) very highly. Even though none of them were ever a top 5 QB in the league, and at best some of them might, at times, have been lower end top 10 or a bit outside.

PFF consistently graded them far above their actual skill and value on the field. I've watched 3/4 Cowboys games this season, I didn't think Dak was particularly good. For whatever that's worth, but EPA and advanced stats applied to football sometimes completely suck. Hence why Dak is ranked #1.

I think of it like this at a very high level:

EPA is a more of measure of total output, QBR is a more of measure of efficiency and situational production.

An okay analogy would be comparing Points Per Game and PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and in basketball.

A guy might lead the league by averaging 30 points per game, but also play 38 minutes a night and take 22 shots on 45% shooting.

Another guy might only average 19 points a game, but do it in 24 minutes and 13 shots, making 60% of them.

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by chiefsncards275

Where do you guys put in Mahomes in the early
MVP race? Allen is the clear #1 right now but after that I feel Mahomes isn’t too far behind.


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Its been 4 games lol

Shouldn't even look at MVP race until week 10 IMO.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I think of it like this at a very high level:

EPA is a more of measure of total output, QBR is a more of measure of efficiency and situational production.

An okay analogy would be comparing Points Per Game and PER (Player Efficiency Rating) and in basketball.

A guy might lead the league by averaging 30 points per game, but also play 38 minutes a night and take 22 shots on 45% shooting.

Another guy might only average 19 points a game, but do it in 24 minutes and 13 shots, making 60% of them.

I did not think EPA was an "aggregate" statistic, I thought it was per play and more of an effciency stat "Effective points added".

If that's the case, then it makes more sense. Either way, Dak won't be #1 to end this season. I looked up the 2021 EPA rankings by PFF, not their grade but their EPA calculations - Dak was 9th that year. Jimmy G was 6th.

Rodgers, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Herbert - were top 5.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

I guess you can count out a tyreek homecoming.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Zauron

Its been 4 games lol

Shouldn't even look at MVP race until week 10 IMO.

You shouldn't.

It was 2 years ago in October that someone around here said "It's Tua's to lose!"

[TheCrow]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

I guess you can count out a tyreek homecoming.

Dang, and I thought only Gumby could do that! Tyreek is gonna feel that in the morning...

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by TheCrow

Dang, and I thought only Gumby could do that! Tyreek is gonna feel that in the morning...

Thanks to mahomes being double jointed he’ll never suffer an injury like that.

He’s Titanium Patty.

[tjforce]

Sucks for Tyreek. Obviously has his issues, but was an integral part of the Chiefs for Mahomes era, and will be one of the guys from that era to make the HOF.


If you want to go have a good time, go back to some of the takes on this thread when the Chiefs traded Tyreek a few Super Bowl wins ago:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...6928&page=1087


Looking back, I'd say most of the comments we're somewhat optimistic about what the Chiefs would look like without Tyreek and with the picks, but here are a few highlights. Others: Not so much...

Originally Posted by alphaomegas

GUYS SELL sell now if you can unless the shillers will stop the selll. Its over mchomies

Originally Posted by tconte

Bad move by KC. Great wide receivers don't grow on trees. Just ask Philly.
This will be a big short term loss for Mahomes. Anyone saying the team is better now
is crazy.

Originally Posted by Hellcat

It’s a sad day for Mahomes investors. I’m one of them so I’m not happy.

Originally Posted by Hellcat

How were the Patriots able to add these necessary players?! Oh yeah Brady was always taking way under market value. Unfortunately Patty didn’t learn from the GOATs blueprint. They lost Hill because of Patty’s half a billion dollar contract so Hill was like you break the bank I will to!

Originally Posted by Fenway55

No, it really isn't. It is a fact. Tom Brady consistently accepted less money than he could have gotten in order to help out the team with their cap situation.

As has already been pointed out in this thread, only once in the salary cap era has a QB won a Super Bowl taking up more than 13% of the cap number. Hill is absolutely a cap casualty. Let's see how it works out for KC this year.

Originally Posted by Fenway55

Yeah they will be set up very nicely in 2024 - just in time to lose his other top target, Travis Kelce.

Originally Posted by nabzy28

The AFC is just absolutely stacked with QB's/teams that are severe competition for him for the next 5+ years, according to everyone. If that remains the case, most of these guys will be lucky to GO to 2 Super Bowls, let alone win two. NFC remains WIDE open. Probably very much factored into Brady's decision.

Originally Posted by starfox

Mahomes is very good, but his time to come back down to earth is here. The Chiefs are not even the fifth best team in the league. In fact, they're probably the second or third best team in their own division. I don't hate Mahomes, but he only plays quarterback. He doesn't tackle, block, or kick field goals. He's a very important guy, but just one, nonetheless. Teams win games, not popular quarterbacks.

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[Jeter1020]

It’s seems like the whole knee essentially exploded within. How does the rest of his career look and is he definitely a hall of famer at this point?


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[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

It’s seems like the whole knee essentially exploded within. How does the rest of his career look and is he definitely a hall of famer at this point?


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-5 time first team All Pro
-2010s All Decade Team
-2024 NFL #1 Top 100 Players Ranking
-Opoy Runner up
-11,300 career receiving yards
-95 total touchdowns
-Super Bowl Champ

And if he never plays again he gets a bit of the Sterling Sharpe/Gale Sayers "Career ended too early" credit.

He's a lock.