Michael Jordan 90's inserts by the odds

[jrfillini]

This seems like a not entirely inappropriate thread for this issue.

I'd be interested in knowing how many 1996 SPX Jordan autos are out there. I've heard estimates between 50 and 100, but I don't know what those estimates were based on. Now, there's a Jordan trade card listed on ebay: https://www.ebay.com/itm/MICHAEL-JOR...AAAOSw3QldET0Q

The back of the card lists the approximate retail value of each of the Jordan and Penny auto cards ($500 and $150, respectively). It also gives the total retail value of $450,000. The same information can be found on the back of a Penny trade card. The stated odds of pulling the Jordan trade card are 1 in 34,560 packs and the stated odds of pulling the Penny trade card are 1 in 1,345 packs.

If we can believe all of that, my math puts that at ~100 Jordan trade cards and ~2,650 Penny trade cards. Anybody want to check my math and tell me where I went wrong?

X is the number of Jordan trade cards. The number of Penny trade cards is (34,560/1,345)*X. Multiply the number of Jordan trade cards by $500 and multiply the number of Penny trade cards by $150, then add those two values together. The sum is equal to $450,000. Do a little math and it spits out X as 103.3467, which is the number of Jordan trade cards.

Now I have not done math since 2001, so I very may well be way off, but that seems plausible at least.

Thoughts (other than that I am a nerd)?

[pcptrade]

Anyone know the odds of this?

Jordan 1995 Stadium Club Warp Speed #WS1

Jordan 1995 Stadium Club Warp Speed #WS1 PSA 10 by pcp trade, on Flickr

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Anyone know the odds of this?

Jordan 1995 Stadium Club Warp Speed #WS1

Jordan 1995 Stadium Club Warp Speed #WS1 PSA 10 by pcp trade, on Flickr

Not off the top of my head. But not too tough. Think they were like 1 a box-ish, and not a huge set. Maybe 1:240 packs-ish.

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by the27guy

Not off the top of my head. But not too tough. Think they were like 1 a box-ish, and not a huge set. Maybe 1:240 packs-ish.

Thanks

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by pcptrade

Thanks

1:36 and it's a 12 card set.

https://www.beckett.com/basketball/1...ub-warp-speed/

So 1:432

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by the27guy

1:36 and it's a 12 card set.

https://www.beckett.com/basketball/1...ub-warp-speed/

So 1:432

Great! Thanks once again.

[pcptrade]

1995 Upper Deck Special Edition Gold 1:3,150

PSA 10 Pop 13

Jordan 1995 UD SE Gold PSA 10 by pcp trade, on Flickr

[6celtics33]

Nice pickup

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by 6celtics33

Nice pickup

Thank you.

[Danyo]

I have a Ionix Warp Zone BGS 9 fs if you guys are interested...just shoot me a pm.

[pcptrade]

I think this one is Series 1 with an odds of 1:27,000. Can any Jordan experts please confirm? Thanks

1996 Ultra Platinum Medallion Series 1 (odds 1:27,000) by pcp trade, on Flickr

Originally Posted by Kenfancypants

If you look at the list, the rarest top 12 (why not include the remainder 2?) non serial numbered inserts/parallels excluding patches/jersey/auto are:

#12 - 1996/97 Finest Gold Refractor 1:5,184
#11 - 1997/98 Skybox Golden Touch 1:5,400
#10 - 1997/98 Metal Championship Hardware 1:5,400
#9 - 1997/98 Ultra Ultrabilities Superstar 1:5,760
#8 - 1997/98 Ultra Star Power Supreme 1:5,760
#7 - 1997/98 Hoops Frequent Flyer Upgrade 1:7,200
#6 - 1997/98 Stadium Club Triumvirate Illuminator 1:9,216
#5 - 1997/98 E-X2001 Jambalaya 1:10,800
#4 - 1996/97 Z-Force Big Man On Court Z-Peat 1:11,200
#2/#3 - 1996/97 Ultra Platinum Medallion Series 1 1:27,000 Series 2 1:15,000
#1 - 1997/98 Ultra Stars Gold 1:28,800

[6celtics33]

Yep, that’s a monster

[6celtics33]

The edges are a little smoother than I’m comfortable with for a natural cut but it does fill up the holder. I don’t know.

Starman101 knows this card well

He might have better insight

The ultra series 1 box states less than 200 sets produced

[pcptrade]

Originally Posted by 6celtics33

Yep, that’s a monster

Originally Posted by 6celtics33

The edges are a little smoother than I’m comfortable with for a natural cut but it does fill up the holder. I don’t know.

Starman101 knows this card well

He might have better insight

The ultra series 1 box states less than 200 sets produced

Thanks. Yes, even though they are not numbered, the estimated print run is less than 250.

https://www.cardboardconnection.com/...sketball-cards


I bought it from a member here. The back has some edge wear on the right lower side as shown below-

img251 by pcp trade, on Flickr

[Starman101]

Here's one I picked up last night with greater than 1:1000 Odds per Beckett

1995-96 SP Championship Champion Shots Gold 1:62 x 20 in set = 1:1,240





Count it

And bump to a great thread

[dev6015]

Awesome info in this thread, thanks to all for putting it together. I'm a little new over here (usually hang out more on the baseball board) but am hoping to diversity a little into some 90's MJ inserts from my childhood.

Lots of people have mentioned the counterfeits coming out of Asia. Can someone point me in the direction of the thread outlining that info? I'm interested and would like to read more about it.

Thanks dudes!

[charly41]

look here

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...ht=fakes+china

Originally Posted by dev6015

Awesome info in this thread, thanks to all for putting it together. I'm a little new over here (usually hang out more on the baseball board) but am hoping to diversity a little into some 90's MJ inserts from my childhood.

Lots of people have mentioned the counterfeits coming out of Asia. Can someone point me in the direction of the thread outlining that info? I'm interested and would like to read more about it.

Thanks dudes!

[majorflippers]

Is there a way to look up odds of inserts that are not as rare?

For example, Hot Numbers, Scoring Kings, Natural Born Thrillers, etc

Noticed they were not on the list so I am assuming the odds are better?

[Gem10collection]

Originally Posted by majorflippers

Is there a way to look up odds of inserts that are not as rare?

For example, Hot Numbers, Scoring Kings, Natural Born Thrillers, etc

Noticed they were not on the list so I am assuming the odds are better?

Becket has the pack odds posted on their site but it takes some work to find them.

[the27guy]

Bump this thread for an incoming BOLDED card from OP’s list.

[Zcardsz]

Do you need a paid subscription to find those pack odds on Beckett? Link?
Thanks.


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[Agcards85]

I had an early 90s Michael Jordan McDonalds hologram card I got in a happy meal or something. Is there any value? I believe I have 3 of them and it's a hologram of him crouching about to shoot

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[the27guy]

I posted about this one on my IG last night. This is a card that hasn't been discussed a ton, but has an interesting history. I've gotten at least ten questions on it since last night, so I thought it might be worth posting some history here since BO provides the best format for this type of information.

The 1997-98 Upper Deck Game Dated Memorable Moments insert or is it a parallel? I'm not sure. It's a parallel of just a portion of the base set.... which is unusual.



As OP indicates, these cards were inserted 1:1,500 packs. It's a 30 card set, making it a 1:45,000 pack card.... one of the most difficult pulls of all MJ inserts.... but it's not one of the highest dollar ones.... that wasn't always the case though. Check out some of the data that I've found as I've been looking through old Becketts this past few weeks.

First, check out this ad from the January 1998 Beckett for UD series one. Amazingly, in the first ever game jerseys, UD opted to highlight the "game dated" cards and their matching photographs and included the jersey cards kind of as an afterthought. Amazing.




Next, check this out. This article is in the July 1998 Beckett and shows off ALL of the MJ inserts that were over $1k and over (Grand babies... hahaha) at the time. Amazingly, there were only nine! The ninth and least expensive was the Game Dated, Memroble Moments.... and the others.... well, the others are all iconic and worth 5x-40x what they were at the time. The Game Dated on the other hand, likely because of confusion around the set, has mostly been forgotten... which is kind of amazing as it came out of the main product in maybe the most popular year of collecting....

It really is funny.

[buckunteer]

I guess I'd consider it a parallel, but it is HUGELY rare and somehow even more underrated. I love my Mitch. I got it graded and naturally it came back 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9. Really wanted it to gem but still love it. The MJ would be an insane add to any collection!

[the27guy]

Originally Posted by buckunteer

I guess I'd consider it a parallel, but it is HUGELY rare and somehow even more underrated. I love my Mitch. I got it graded and naturally it came back 9.5, 9.5, 9, 9. Really wanted it to gem but still love it. The MJ would be an insane add to any collection!

I think it's largely underrated because people don't know the difference between the Game Dated cards and the regular cards which also say Game Dated. It confused us in 1997 and it does today. Lol.

Add this set to the Triumvirate Illuminators and 1995 Finest Series 2 Mystery for sets that have - for some reason - baffled the graders. The pop reports are just ridiculously off because the graders got more wrong than right for a long period of time.