2015 Prospect Rush Draft Hit Parade

[FunDragon]

Originally Posted by armyatc22

So let's bring up the question again....

What happens if all 5 Bryant chase cards are not pulled before the National?

Well, according to previous posted comments.

Whoever shows up at the Nationals with the winning tickets have a chance of being pick as the Winner of the Superfractor.

Every other winning ticket will have expired and voided after that drawing. ( hopefully still have claims to the winner up prizes, but there was no mention of that )

Just one guy's understand of how things were presented, correct me if I am mistaken. Or better yet, may be we can hear the real truth straight from the (......)'s mouth.

On a side note, hope my $9.01 investment/wager will land me on a Kris Bryant Slot, pull the winning ticket and get drawn. Then the rest would be history.

Sorry for my deficient English ramblings, still learning.

Good Luck to all.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Bob Loblaw

We gamble. This hobby -- we ALL gamble.

Prospecting? Gambling.
Opening wax? Gambling.
Buying autos? Gambling that they're authentic.
Buying retired players? Gambling that they don't have a "bill cosby" or drug type issue and their cards go down. This is the lowest risk in gambling -- also the lowest reward.

To be attracted to this hobby, you almost HAVE to inherently like to gamble. This release just amps up the cost, as well as the reward.

A case of Chrome is nickel slots. This is the $1 slot.

Im not disagreeing with ANY of this. What I'm asking to the people that are ripping it for not having a strong enough return (even though they just aren't paying attention that it's not meant for a single person to break) is what % return would you find "acceptable"?

[Bob Loblaw]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Im not disagreeing with ANY of this. What I'm asking to the people that are ripping it for not having a strong enough return (even though they just aren't paying attention that it's not meant for a single person to break) is what % return would you find "acceptable"?

While only about 20 boxes have been broken, I believe only one was a "winner" -- the red Schwarber. I don't think it's a % rate of return that is acceptable, I think it's simply more winners. Not every one can be a winner, of course, but better odds than 1:20 to make money. To have more winners, you can't have one huge $40k grand prize. Bit of a catch 22.

[Andrew Jones]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Im not disagreeing with ANY of this. What I'm asking to the people that are ripping it for not having a strong enough return (even though they just aren't paying attention that it's not meant for a single person to break) is what % return would you find "acceptable"?

I think NC was pretty darn close to being spot on.

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Guys, if you want to figure out ROI on a product, you have to work backwards, not forwards. Start with the total cost to the consumer, and make educated guesses as to the costs to the Company producing the goods (as well as profit margins).

Unlike when a card company has a new release, there is no added value from factory to public (for example, the value of a Moncada chrome auto to Topps is the cost to print it and the cost to acquire the auto. That value increases greatly once it hits the open market). With Prospect Rush, the value in the cards Will has purchased are likely to stay the same once they reach consumers hands (modest gains and falls only because of timing).

So it's fairly straightforward to determine what the consumer should expect. First we make a few realistic assumptions, and after you plug in the numbers, you have the expected rated of return per box. Here are my estimates as to what to expect (and how I came about them).

(1) Prospect Rush will sell out. If Prospect Rush sells out at 33 cases ($7,995) and 201 boxes ($2,750) that means the total cost to the consumer for this product is $816,585.
(2) Distributors and Re-sellers will earn a profit. Because you cannot buy directly from PR, there's a profit to be made from re-sellers and/or anyone that is buying from Prospect Rush. How does a 7.5% profit margin sound for re-sellers? Take out $61,000 in profits from middle-men, and the value in the cases is now $755,585.
(3) Prospect Rush will earn a profit. This is likely where the largest chunk gets cut from a marketable product. Will has put a ton of time into this product, would everyone be alright with a 20% profit here? $150,000 is then removed from the value within the boxes and the remaining value sits at $605,585.
(4) There will be manufacturing costs. What does it cost to create 300 custom Prospect Rush lock boxes? Pelican cases in that quantity are likely around $75 a piece then you add in the costs to fill the cases with cards, from a second party and the cost to have that party handle shipping details. Can we say $40,000 in total? Box value now $565,585
(5) There will be shipping costs. Heavy boxes to ship to distributors, retailers etc. Modest cost of $15 per case, let's knock off $4,500 here. $562,085 in value.
(6) There will be administrative costs. This is the tricky one because it's all inclusive of everything else. Wills time (which should not be included in "profit"), his flight to purchase the Bryant, his drive on ESPN, the costs for his staff, the people that have provided him sketches, his design team that put the sell sheets together etc. Licensing. It's a lot of work to put together a launch of any product, so I'm going to make what I consider to be a conservative estimate of $80,000 for this one. Product value is now $482,085.

(As I finished this, I failed to take out for CC and Paypal fees during step 1, because when Blowout receives payment, they only receive 97% of it, so I'm knocking off another $20,000. Should have done this at the top, but it changes the numbers slightly and it's too much work now that I've forgotten!) Running tab on value, $462,085.

To wrap this up, we have to assume that Will paid fair market value on the cards in the product. Sometimes he may have gotten a steal, sometimes he pay have overpaid. But when you work all the costs down, the actual value of the entire print run, including the Bryant tickets, sketches, and Pelican cases may just be around $460,000 (MY EDUCATED GUESS ONLY). 460,000 / 816,585, you end up with an estimated ROI of 56%.

That's not to say that Will's Prospect Rush launch will be a success or a failure from a consumer standpoint, but it is to say that the pro and con PR crowd can use their own kind of numbers to figure out what the product with ROI.

Interestedly enough, after he posted this, several people claimed his numbers were off. They claimed the ROI would be higher than 56% because his profit estimates for ML/PR were too high, he was somehow reducing costs by busting and subbing many of the cards for the product himself as opposed to buying slabs on the secondary market, etc. They may end up being right about the 56% being off, but in the opposite direction.

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

I get to sell my unscratched one for a ridiculous amount of money capitalizing on the hype

If believing makes it happen, you are all set.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by Bob Loblaw

While only about 20 boxes have been broken, I believe only one was a "winner" -- the red Schwarber. I don't think it's a % rate of return that is acceptable, I think it's simply more winners. Not every one can be a winner, of course, but better odds than 1:20 to make money. To have more winners, you can't have one huge $40k grand prize. Bit of a catch 22.

So your opinion is more small winners instead of one large winner??

Is that how others feel as well?

[darealstunna]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

If believing makes it happen, you are all set.

Yup, gonna sell it or trade it at National if I have to.

[Bob Loblaw]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

So your opinion is more small winners instead of one large winner??

Is that how others feel as well?

I'm looking at this from a box purchase standpoint, not a group buy standpoint.

If I were to spend $2800 on a box, I would rather have 15-20 chances to get $5000 back than 1 chance to get $40,000. (The math is slightly off, but you get the point)

[VinnyH]

The list has been updated at POST #1803. There are 336 member names there. Any corrections or questions, please PM me. I'm going to ask a mod to randomize it after 10pm eastern tonight. I'll be available until 9:30 or so to update if necessary.

The top 10 member names get a Pelican Case, compliments of Prospect Rush Draft.

Any last minute trades or purchases may not be caught by that time. "It is what it is"

Thanks,
Vinny

[RYBOWSKI97]

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

If believing makes it happen, you are all set.

post of the day!

[illadelf]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

I get to sell my unscratched one for a ridiculous amount of money capitalizing on the hype

What's the value up to today??

[cruiserdaddy7]

Originally Posted by illadelf

What's the value up to today??

Must be $1,250 in a land called Oz.

[sfguy115]

I guess I don't get the negativity. From a personal breaking standpoint you're getting for the most part the same return. The difference is that instead of opening up 4 cases and having that hope of hitting a monster with each pack, you're opening up 1 box with the hits already taken out and a chance at a monster. I'm not sure what I'd actually prefer. I love opening up a case, but at the same time I'd love the idea of getting players from multiple years. If you set yourself up for unrealistic expectations, you're better off just learning to buy singles at a comfortable price. If you like to gamble... only bet what you're willing to lose!

[Ballerskrip]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Well you are wrong on what direct buyers are paying.

That being said what % of retail would you think is fair on a re-packed product.

I understand there are people that just don't see the allure to them but when it comes down to it people here are willing to draft a 1/60 chance at getting a good hit and 59/60 chance of getting NOTHING. So seems like there are more interested than not interested.

My brain must have shut down, I thought I remembered it being closer to $2200, but was just told by a friend that they were offered spots in a draft hit at $1900, which I mistakenly used......

[Morgoth]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

I get to sell my unscratched one for a ridiculous amount of money capitalizing on the hype

Dude we know you have an unscratched card you want a bazillion dollars for, we get it. I hope the next 5 cases are have the Bryant winners so your dream of selling it dies.

[wmelchior628]

No new breaks posted on YouTube yet. Any KB winners yet?

[darealstunna]

Originally Posted by illadelf

What's the value up to today??

Originally Posted by cruiserdaddy7

Must be $1,250 in a land called Oz.

sadly my price gouging thread was taken down
fortunately I have a copy ready to repost when my box arrives

the scratch ticket is at 1k right now.....you claiming it? PM me.
tomorrow will be higher, and so on.
come National will be even higher.

2750 on a box for one shot at the Bryant and window dressing probably wasn't the brightest move I've made in this card board collecting habit. If I had it to do all over again, I would just dump 2750 in to scratchers solely.

Assuming anybody will be selling theirs....lol.....many will not sell because they can't stomach the $150 others expect them to accept so they rather scratch it and lose out completely.

[darealstunna]

Originally Posted by Morgoth

Dude we know you have an unscratched card you want a bazillion dollars for, we get it. I hope the next 5 cases are have the Bryant winners so your dream of selling it dies.

that's rude, and weird.

[ronaldo943]

His username explains it all.

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

that's rude, and weird.

As weird as asking $1,000 for a Kris Bryant Scratch Card?

[darealstunna]

Originally Posted by ronaldo943

As weird as asking $1,000 for a Kris Bryant Scratch Card?

Not asking....demanding....supply will soon solidify

[IUjapander]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

Yup, gonna sell it or trade it at National if I have to.

Since you will be at the National I think you should have a raffle for the chance at a raffle.

Speaking of which Chicago laws are pretty strict on raffles. I hope this was thought out beforehand.

"Licenses for raffles shall be issued only to bona fide religious, charitable, labor, fraternal, educational or veterans' organizations which are located within the corporate limits of the City of Chicago and which operate without profit to their members"

[valleyofsun]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

Not asking....demanding....supply will soon solidify

You're hilarious.

[wmelchior628]

Originally Posted by preakness

If anyone has multiple boxes and pulls one of the 5 Bryant cards, there is no way they announce that they pulled it.
It would lower price of the unopened they are holding... Correct?

Originally Posted by IUjapander

Since you will be at the National I think you should have a raffle for the chance at a raffle.

Speaking of which Chicago laws are pretty strict on raffles. I hope this was thought out beforehand.

"Licenses for raffles shall be issued only to bona fide religious, charitable, labor, fraternal, educational or veterans' organizations which are located within the corporate limits of the City of Chicago and which operate without profit to their members"

That's interesting, but I don't think it is a raffle done in Chicago. It is the award of a free prize to a random person. The OP has been pretty straight forward all along saying the KB scratcher is a bonus in everybox and not part of the product. I would say it's similar to buying a group break on eBay. Only instead of a signed index card, you are buying a pelican case. Enclosed are random cards as a free gift with purchase of the case.

[ronaldo943]

Originally Posted by darealstunna

Not asking....demanding....supply will soon solidify

And by then your DEMANDING price will be $2000 right? I would just chalk it up as a loss bud. I hope for your sake you're able to get atleast $1,000 for each and have a decent case that way you don't lose out too much ont your initial investment.