How many Luck auto RCs are left unopened in packs?

Fantazzle · 11-23-2014, 02:18 AM

Hi all,
I know there is not an exact answer to this question, but I was hoping I could get some knowledgable replies that could help.
So here goes:
I want to invest in 2012 unopened football boxes/cases mainly to find RC autos of the big names with Andrew Luck being the #1 priority (Wilson, Tannenhill, Hilton, Foles, RG3, etc). The priority is Luck (and Wilson).

Is there any info collected out there in one place OR that I could collect in several locations that could help me put some info together on VERY VERY ROUGHLY how many Luck auto's are still laying around in unopened boxes? Not to complicate much, but some weight should be put into parallel versions, diecuts, patch/material, and inserts of value (cards that have value of ~$100 or more per card, for example...don't get too hung up on this).

Should I buy Topps Chrome...or Panini Momentum....or P Certified...or etc.
Before I continue, I should point out that I'm not in this to sell the cards and make money so if I have fun and get a bunch of other nice cards, that would be pretty cool too. The thing is that Luck is obviously the #1 RC to come out of 2012 (let's not get into a debate here...) and I bought quite a few cards and I must have an auto of EVERY worthwhile RC from that year (multiples even...shoot, I must have 10 RG3 RCs...why couldn't it have been him???) EXCEPT a darn Andrew Luck auto. Figures / :

I suppose to start looking into something like this (if there isn't already sources out there for this) is to
1. Look at each set and find out how many TOTAL autos are available of Luck (and other RCs if I want to include and the other types I listed that have $100 or more in value).

2. Then begin finding out how many cards have been LISTED for each type (the only way this really could be done is looking at cards that are numbered). Even better (maybe....or at least for Panini) would be if the cards are redemptions (that are not expired).

3. I would imagine a place like Panini's blog would be a good start since they list redeemed cards shipped out. Is there some historical eBay search I could do for all cards sold of a specific type? Looking at a few other seller sites in the same way as eBay.

So...I know this isn't much, but its what I brainstormed quickly on the idea. Are there any other sources/ideas that would help? I really don't mind the time this would take AND I'm not looking for a perfect answer (that's obviously impossible given how many people don't sell or list or do anything but open a pack of cards and keep it in their collection w/out anyone knowing Collector A is the owner of card 1 of 1 Luck auto RC.

All that said, I'm looking for:
1. Expanding on what the ideas above.
2. Letting me know one or more ideas is not worth doing or even wrong.
3. Resources to check out.
4. Does anyone know with certainty that Brand X is a good bet at this point? Or that all brands are not a good bet?
5. Everything else I missed.
Please be kind of telling me I'm an idiot to try such a task. I am a rather new posting member ( :

Clarka3 · 11-23-2014, 02:36 AM

you have to figure the number is pretty high considering the price of most 2012 products remaining unopened...

unless the only 2012 product left unopened is Finest. he was scarce.

ucLAkers · 11-23-2014, 03:37 AM

You should forget about cracking boxes and just buy singles if your trying to hunt certain players.

DieHardCowboyFan33 · 11-23-2014, 07:39 AM

To be honest if you're going to invest in boxes that's a not a good decision IMO. You're much better off buying singles. But I'm a little confused because you said you want to invest but you're not looking to make money? If you're not worried about making money and just want to have fun then boxes all the way. But if you're looking for a ROI or to be guaranteed a certain card then buy singles. As far as the amout of Luck cards left I imagine it's pretty high as there was a good amount of product from 2012. Obviously Lucks most valuable card(s) from Chrome are gone so if you're looking for Supers they've already been pulled lol. But still lots of color autos available from there. Also National Treasures has his RPA as well as others but I think the Luck 1/1 NT has been pulled? (Correct me if I'm wrong.) But whatever you choose just have fun!

Coventry6546 · 11-23-2014, 07:43 AM

Unless you can find a Luck super collector who has tried to track since 2012, I would say its nearly impossible. I've been trying to track Lucks Flawless and even though I've got a good spreadsheet going, I know its not 100% accurate due to those individuals that hit for PC and never list and even those people who buy at their LCS and never touch a computer. Flawless only has just over 200 cards, imagine trying to track all the cards and sets from 2012!

Like others stated above, with the amount of time you would have to invest, odds associated with hitting from busting and the astronomical prices of 2012 boxes, you would be better off just buying the cards you want.

If you decide to do it, good luck to you, but I'm not aware of such a list.

Coventry6546 · 11-23-2014, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DieHardCowboyFan33

To be honest if you're going to invest in boxes that's a not a good decision IMO. You're much better off buying singles. But I'm a little confused because you said you want to invest but you're not looking to make money? If you're not worried about making money and just want to have fun then boxes all the way. But if you're looking for a ROI or to be guaranteed a certain card then buy singles. As far as the amout of Luck cards left I imagine it's pretty high as there was a good amount of product from 2012. Obviously Lucks most valuable card(s) from Chrome are gone so if you're looking for Supers they've already been pulled lol. But still lots of color autos available from there. Also National Treasures has his RPA as well as others but I think the Luck 1/1 NT has been pulled? (Correct me if I'm wrong.) But whatever you choose just have fun!

You are correct, all of his biggest cards, from the biggest sets have been pulled, two chrome supers, championship ticket, and shield RPA. Doesn't mean OP couldn't hit a cracked ice or gold auto, but at $200 plus for Chrome and $300 plus for Contenders, better hope you hit in the first 5-10 boxes

Fantazzle · 12-28-2014, 05:15 AM

This is a belated reply to my original post here. I had read the replies so i wanted to make sure this didn't go to waste (should have posted a mini reply earlier). I wanted to reply after I spent a little time on my own doing research and found it just about impossible unfortunately. Kinda crazy that its not even easy to get an easy number from redemption cards (of course, maybe or more likely definitely, the companies don't want to give those numbers as it may hurt sales). Of course, doing some type of summary when the redemptions expire would be very kind of them to do on their blog. Even the old Panini way (before the pt system) because at that point, they aren't selling boxes from ~2012 (or whatever just expired) and it could help boost hobby shop sales on some boxes that have a lot of cards still outstanding (of course redemptions stink....).

Anyhow, just like the answers here, I haven't found a way either and I did spend some time on this.

Oh and to answer/respond to the suggestion of just buying singles...well DieHardRavensFan52...I mean Cowboys33 is right: I am more into it for the fun of busting boxes, but I usually got a radar on certain cards I'd like to get while I bust. For example, I just started collecting again in 2012 (last time before that was 1989) and I have bought quite a few 2008 football boxes to try to get Flacco (and before the fiasco.....Ray Rice...siggggggh) cards given I'm a Ravens fan.

I appreciate everyone's time replying!
Ryan
Go CHIEFS! GO RAVENS!!!!

armyatc22 · 12-28-2014, 06:23 AM

I would say around 658 more are hiding in packs somewhere

marinocollector · 12-28-2014, 01:26 PM

I would invest in an early season Panini release. One were Russell Wilson isn't a redemption.

nera20 · 12-28-2014, 01:28 PM

I heard a rumor that during the hurricane a few years ago half of the print run of chrome got destroyed so there isn't many luck autos out there, this was the rumor how much fact there is to it not sure but have heard this said.

trixstar · 12-28-2014, 01:32 PM

I stopped reading after the "invest in boxes" line

HBMC · 12-28-2014, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by marinocollector

I would invest in an early season Panini release. One were Russell Wilson isn't a redemption.

You can still get him even if the Redemptions are "expired".

Rookies & Stars, Prestige and Elite all have higher numbered Luck Rookie autos. Same goes for Wilson. Limited, Absolute and Crown Royale also have no SP'd RPA guys.

squigsmx31 · 12-28-2014, 02:23 PM

It is too late to invest in 2012 products. They are already super expensive.

BostonNut · 12-28-2014, 03:00 PM

Thirty-Two.

JohnRyno · 12-28-2014, 03:04 PM

The exact number is Threeve.

ManInTheMirror · 12-28-2014, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BostonNut

Thirty-Two.

Nice guess. I say seventy-seven.

glen87 · 12-28-2014, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BostonNut

Thirty-Two.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnRyno

The exact number is Threeve.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ManInTheMirror

Nice guess. I say seventy-seven.

is this like one of those guess the number of jelly beans in the jar games?

if so, I think BN is low, MitM is a little high

, and no idea about JR, so i will go with 72

Fantazzle · 01-01-2015, 03:10 AM

lol, I like the number guesses. I don't know if the Topps Chrome rumor has any truth to it either, but I will say I have bought quite a few of these packs mostly in the form of non-relic blasters (which opens up another question...do u all think they are better than the non-relic since you can get auto's and a bunch of other inserts that you can't get in the relic box?). I'm talking anywhere between 100 to 150 (during and post '12). RG3 I get too many of (especially how he is performing....), Wilson is not very easy, and Luck is EXTREMELY hard.

Maybe I will try some of these recommended by HBMC:
"Rookies & Stars, Prestige and Elite all have higher numbered Luck Rookie autos. Same goes for Wilson. Limited, Absolute and Crown Royale also have no SP'd RPA guys."

11-23-2014, 02:36 AM	#2
Clarka3 Member Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 17,877 Clarka3 Clarka3	you have to figure the number is pretty high considering the price of most 2012 products remaining unopened... unless the only 2012 product left unopened is Finest. he was scarce. __________________ Luke Kuechly Collector pending: w8lifter28 (custom), Don't ask me how much I want to offer. Come with a price in mind. If I don't want it or think it's worth that, I will let you know.

11-23-2014, 03:37 AM	#3
ucLAkers Member Join Date: May 2014 Location: CaliZona Posts: 8,606 mintrobmint Totally Sucks	You should forget about cracking boxes and just buy singles if your trying to hunt certain players. __________________ If you collect Vee & Friends you need medical assistance as theres a chance you have Blow Pop syndrom-18

11-23-2014, 07:39 AM	#4
DieHardCowboyFan33 Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Winterfell Posts: 5,166	To be honest if you're going to invest in boxes that's a not a good decision IMO. You're much better off buying singles. But I'm a little confused because you said you want to invest but you're not looking to make money? If you're not worried about making money and just want to have fun then boxes all the way. But if you're looking for a ROI or to be guaranteed a certain card then buy singles. As far as the amout of Luck cards left I imagine it's pretty high as there was a good amount of product from 2012. Obviously Lucks most valuable card(s) from Chrome are gone so if you're looking for Supers they've already been pulled lol. But still lots of color autos available from there. Also National Treasures has his RPA as well as others but I think the Luck 1/1 NT has been pulled? (Correct me if I'm wrong.) But whatever you choose just have fun! __________________ Looking to buy your Giftcards & electronics (new,used, or broken)

12-28-2014, 01:26 PM	#9
marinocollector Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Locally Posts: 8,301	I would invest in an early season Panini release. One were Russell Wilson isn't a redemption. __________________ There's 100 made! Lets hope that one of the .00000001% of the world population that actually own this card decides that today is the day they offer it for sale.

12-28-2014, 01:28 PM	#10
nera20 Member Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 35,256	I heard a rumor that during the hurricane a few years ago half of the print run of chrome got destroyed so there isn't many luck autos out there, this was the rumor how much fact there is to it not sure but have heard this said. __________________ USA SHIPPING ONLY

11-23-2014, 02:18 AM	#1
Fantazzle Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 202 fantasyfootballgames	How many Luck auto RCs are left unopened in packs? Hi all, I know there is not an exact answer to this question, but I was hoping I could get some knowledgable replies that could help. So here goes: I want to invest in 2012 unopened football boxes/cases mainly to find RC autos of the big names with Andrew Luck being the #1 priority (Wilson, Tannenhill, Hilton, Foles, RG3, etc). The priority is Luck (and Wilson). Is there any info collected out there in one place OR that I could collect in several locations that could help me put some info together on VERY VERY ROUGHLY how many Luck auto's are still laying around in unopened boxes? Not to complicate much, but some weight should be put into parallel versions, diecuts, patch/material, and inserts of value (cards that have value of ~$100 or more per card, for example...don't get too hung up on this). Should I buy Topps Chrome...or Panini Momentum....or P Certified...or etc. Before I continue, I should point out that I'm not in this to sell the cards and make money so if I have fun and get a bunch of other nice cards, that would be pretty cool too. The thing is that Luck is obviously the #1 RC to come out of 2012 (let's not get into a debate here...) and I bought quite a few cards and I must have an auto of EVERY worthwhile RC from that year (multiples even...shoot, I must have 10 RG3 RCs...why couldn't it have been him???) EXCEPT a darn Andrew Luck auto. Figures / : I suppose to start looking into something like this (if there isn't already sources out there for this) is to 1. Look at each set and find out how many TOTAL autos are available of Luck (and other RCs if I want to include and the other types I listed that have $100 or more in value). 2. Then begin finding out how many cards have been LISTED for each type (the only way this really could be done is looking at cards that are numbered). Even better (maybe....or at least for Panini) would be if the cards are redemptions (that are not expired). 3. I would imagine a place like Panini's blog would be a good start since they list redeemed cards shipped out. Is there some historical eBay search I could do for all cards sold of a specific type? Looking at a few other seller sites in the same way as eBay. So...I know this isn't much, but its what I brainstormed quickly on the idea. Are there any other sources/ideas that would help? I really don't mind the time this would take AND I'm not looking for a perfect answer (that's obviously impossible given how many people don't sell or list or do anything but open a pack of cards and keep it in their collection w/out anyone knowing Collector A is the owner of card 1 of 1 Luck auto RC. All that said, I'm looking for: 1. Expanding on what the ideas above. 2. Letting me know one or more ideas is not worth doing or even wrong. 3. Resources to check out. 4. Does anyone know with certainty that Brand X is a good bet at this point? Or that all brands are not a good bet? 5. Everything else I missed. Please be kind of telling me I'm an idiot to try such a task. I am a rather new posting member ( :

11-23-2014, 07:43 AM	#5
Coventry6546 Member Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Connecticut Posts: 2,764 Coventry6546	Unless you can find a Luck super collector who has tried to track since 2012, I would say its nearly impossible. I've been trying to track Lucks Flawless and even though I've got a good spreadsheet going, I know its not 100% accurate due to those individuals that hit for PC and never list and even those people who buy at their LCS and never touch a computer. Flawless only has just over 200 cards, imagine trying to track all the cards and sets from 2012! Like others stated above, with the amount of time you would have to invest, odds associated with hitting from busting and the astronomical prices of 2012 boxes, you would be better off just buying the cards you want. If you decide to do it, good luck to you, but I'm not aware of such a list.

12-28-2014, 05:15 AM	#7
Fantazzle Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 202 fantasyfootballgames	This is a belated reply to my original post here. I had read the replies so i wanted to make sure this didn't go to waste (should have posted a mini reply earlier). I wanted to reply after I spent a little time on my own doing research and found it just about impossible unfortunately. Kinda crazy that its not even easy to get an easy number from redemption cards (of course, maybe or more likely definitely, the companies don't want to give those numbers as it may hurt sales). Of course, doing some type of summary when the redemptions expire would be very kind of them to do on their blog. Even the old Panini way (before the pt system) because at that point, they aren't selling boxes from ~2012 (or whatever just expired) and it could help boost hobby shop sales on some boxes that have a lot of cards still outstanding (of course redemptions stink....). Anyhow, just like the answers here, I haven't found a way either and I did spend some time on this. Oh and to answer/respond to the suggestion of just buying singles...well DieHardRavensFan52...I mean Cowboys33 is right: I am more into it for the fun of busting boxes, but I usually got a radar on certain cards I'd like to get while I bust. For example, I just started collecting again in 2012 (last time before that was 1989) and I have bought quite a few 2008 football boxes to try to get Flacco (and before the fiasco.....Ray Rice...siggggggh) cards given I'm a Ravens fan. I appreciate everyone's time replying! Ryan Go CHIEFS! GO RAVENS!!!!

12-28-2014, 06:23 AM	#8
armyatc22 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Who knows Posts: 22,041 armyatc22	I would say around 658 more are hiding in packs somewhere

12-28-2014, 01:32 PM	#11
trixstar Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Seattle Posts: 24,196 stunner316	I stopped reading after the "invest in boxes" line

12-28-2014, 02:23 PM	#13
squigsmx31 Member Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Maryland Posts: 1,539	It is too late to invest in 2012 products. They are already super expensive. __________________ PC-Peter Boulware Also buying high end Ravens cards.

12-28-2014, 03:00 PM	#14
BostonNut Member Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 62,603	Thirty-Two. __________________ "It's true that whenever rectal issues come to mind thoughts of you aren't far behind" - HairySas September 4, 2025 "GD it. I am a doofus." - majestik101 October 16, 2025 “This is the baseball section, NN ” - Bosoxfan5990 November 25, 2025

12-28-2014, 03:04 PM	#15
JohnRyno Banned Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Fairway in Regulation Posts: 12,248 johnryno2012 johnryno	The exact number is Threeve.

01-01-2015, 03:10 AM	#18
Fantazzle Member Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 202 fantasyfootballgames	lol, I like the number guesses. I don't know if the Topps Chrome rumor has any truth to it either, but I will say I have bought quite a few of these packs mostly in the form of non-relic blasters (which opens up another question...do u all think they are better than the non-relic since you can get auto's and a bunch of other inserts that you can't get in the relic box?). I'm talking anywhere between 100 to 150 (during and post '12). RG3 I get too many of (especially how he is performing....), Wilson is not very easy, and Luck is EXTREMELY hard. Maybe I will try some of these recommended by HBMC: "Rookies & Stars, Prestige and Elite all have higher numbered Luck Rookie autos. Same goes for Wilson. Limited, Absolute and Crown Royale also have no SP'd RPA guys."