100 Cases - 2014 Bowman Baseball Player Auction - NO MORE BST - Page 21

uberfatty · 04-22-2014, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yellid23

Anyone know when we can expect to see some pack odds? If I could do the math based on the odds I would definitely be doing some more bidding. Will we see odds before the deadlines?

it's going to be bad for chrome non-auto color (I think last year was 1:2.5 hobby boxes for even a blue ref and production is likely way up this year), but that will be made up for by the new paper and mini color.

dthimesch · 04-22-2014, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uberfatty

it's going to be bad for chrome non-auto color (I think last year was 1:2.5 hobby boxes for even a blue ref and production is likely way up this year), but that will be made up for by the new paper and mini color.

yet, Topps says that production in 2014 products is down.

Guess we will see.

21taylor21-0911 · 04-22-2014, 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dthimesch

yet, Topps says that production in 2014 products is down.

Guess we will see.

No way possible, has to go up. With all of the additions and more autos

uberfatty · 04-22-2014, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dthimesch

yet, Topps says that production in 2014 products is down.

Guess we will see.

I hadn't heard that, and I admitedly was only going off of the increased number of prospect autos. Would be awesome if that was the case!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 21taylor21-0911

No way possible, has to go up. With all of the additions and more autos

It doesn't have to go up, but that's the most logical thought. Production decrease would mean better odds of color, and fewer base prospect autos per player signed. Crossing my fingers for that to be the case.

21taylor21-0911 · 04-22-2014, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uberfatty

I hadn't heard that, and I admitedly was only going off of the increased number of prospect autos. Would be awesome if that was the case!

It doesn't have to go up, but that's the most logical thought. Production decrease would mean better odds of color, and fewer base prospect autos per player signed. Crossing my fingers for that to be the case.

We can only hope but i dont see that happening, its all about money as we all know

biged_0 · 04-22-2014, 11:33 AM

BCAP-KP Kyle Parker 1-50 $225

BCAP-KP Kyle Parker 51-100 $225

houdini · 04-22-2014, 02:15 PM

Google Drive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...FE&usp=sharing

goblue138 · 04-22-2014, 04:01 PM

Red Wave Ref 1-50 $200

benjamincarm · 04-22-2014, 04:08 PM

BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 $80

BP37 Maikel Franco 51-100 $80

DCN12586 · 04-22-2014, 04:11 PM

BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 85
BP 37 Maikel Franco 51-100 85

21taylor21-0911 · 04-22-2014, 04:47 PM

BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 110

NeedChapmans · 04-22-2014, 04:58 PM

Assuming the total amount of cases made is ~11,000 (which would keep print runs on prospect autos the same as 2013, just with more autos) / and that none of the 70 autos is SP'ed ... the following autos would be hit per PROSPECT(per 50 cases)

Base /1900 - 8.8 autos per prospect
Refractor /500 - 2.2 autos per prospect
Blue /150 - 0.7 autos per prospect
Black /99 - 0.4 autos per prospect
Green /75 - 0.3 autos per prospect
Gold /50 - 0.2 autos per prospect
Orange /25 - 0.1 autos per prospect
Purple /10 + Red /5 + Plate /4 + Superfractor /1 - 0.1 autos per prospect.

TOTAL autos PULLED per Prospect, per 50 cases = 12.8 so on average, 1.8 color autos will be pulled per prospect.

Now if you're trying to figure out value, let's assume Player X has a base auto that sells for $10 (a guess). Using the ladder to determine value ($10 Base / $20 refractor / $40 Blue / $45 Black / $55 Green / $90 Gold / $140 Orange / $200 Purple / $400 Red / $100 Plate / $1,000 Super, the following expected value can be obtained in a 50 case break:

Base ($10)(8.8) = $88.80
Refractor ($20)(2.2) = $44.00
Blue ($40)(0.7) = $28.00
Black ($45)(0.4) = $18.00
Green ($55)(0.3) = $16.50
Gold ($90)(0.2) = $18.00
Orange ($140)(0.1) = $14.00
Purple / Red / Super / Plate ($1,700)(0.1)/4 = $42.50

TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE = $269.80

So trying to put this into perspective ... if you think a player will have the value ladder I used as an example above, the proper bid to place in this auction would be $270 per 50 cases. That's not to say you should pay more, or pay less if you want the opportunity at 50 cases; this simply gives you an idea of what you're going to get when this is all said and done.

You can use the formula above to plug in your own numbers if it helps.

Prospect Rush · 04-22-2014, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Assuming the total amount of cases made is ~11,000 (which would keep print runs on prospect autos the same as 2013, just with more autos) / and that none of the 70 autos is SP'ed ... the following autos would be hit per PROSPECT(per 50 cases)

Base /1900 - 8.8 autos per prospect
Refractor /500 - 2.2 autos per prospect
Blue /150 - 0.7 autos per prospect
Black /99 - 0.4 autos per prospect
Green /75 - 0.3 autos per prospect
Gold /50 - 0.2 autos per prospect
Orange /25 - 0.1 autos per prospect
Purple /10 + Red /5 + Plate /4 + Superfractor /1 - 0.1 autos per prospect.

TOTAL autos PULLED per Prospect, per 50 cases = 12.8 so on average, 1.8 color autos will be pulled per prospect.

Now if you're trying to figure out value, let's assume Player X has a base auto that sells for $10 (a guess). Using the ladder to determine value ($10 Base / $20 refractor / $40 Blue / $45 Black / $55 Green / $90 Gold / $140 Orange / $200 Purple / $400 Red / $100 Plate / $1,000 Super, the following expected value can be obtained in a 50 case break:

Base ($10)(8.8) = $88.80
Refractor ($20)(2.2) = $44.00
Blue ($40)(0.7) = $28.00
Black ($45)(0.4) = $18.00
Green ($55)(0.3) = $16.50
Gold ($90)(0.2) = $18.00
Orange ($140)(0.1) = $14.00
Purple / Red / Super / Plate ($1,700)(0.1)/4 = $42.50

TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE = $269.80

So trying to put this into perspective ... if you think a player will have the value ladder I used as an example above, the proper bid to place in this auction would be $270 per 50 cases. That's not to say you should pay more, or pay less if you want the opportunity at 50 cases; this simply gives you an idea of what you're going to get when this is all said and done.

You can use the formula above to plug in your own numbers if it helps.

Amazing post, thank you sir!

steelers · 04-22-2014, 06:36 PM

Very nice work .. Thanks for taking the time to post this info .. Do you mind sharing who you plan on bidding on so we know which lots are going to be off the table .. Lol

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

Assuming the total amount of cases made is ~11,000 (which would keep print runs on prospect autos the same as 2013, just with more autos) / and that none of the 70 autos is SP'ed ... the following autos would be hit per PROSPECT(per 50 cases)

Base /1900 - 8.8 autos per prospect
Refractor /500 - 2.2 autos per prospect
Blue /150 - 0.7 autos per prospect
Black /99 - 0.4 autos per prospect
Green /75 - 0.3 autos per prospect
Gold /50 - 0.2 autos per prospect
Orange /25 - 0.1 autos per prospect
Purple /10 + Red /5 + Plate /4 + Superfractor /1 - 0.1 autos per prospect.

TOTAL autos PULLED per Prospect, per 50 cases = 12.8 so on average, 1.8 color autos will be pulled per prospect.

Now if you're trying to figure out value, let's assume Player X has a base auto that sells for $10 (a guess). Using the ladder to determine value ($10 Base / $20 refractor / $40 Blue / $45 Black / $55 Green / $90 Gold / $140 Orange / $200 Purple / $400 Red / $100 Plate / $1,000 Super, the following expected value can be obtained in a 50 case break:

Base ($10)(8.8) = $88.80
Refractor ($20)(2.2) = $44.00
Blue ($40)(0.7) = $28.00
Black ($45)(0.4) = $18.00
Green ($55)(0.3) = $16.50
Gold ($90)(0.2) = $18.00
Orange ($140)(0.1) = $14.00
Purple / Red / Super / Plate ($1,700)(0.1)/4 = $42.50

TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE = $269.80

So trying to put this into perspective ... if you think a player will have the value ladder I used as an example above, the proper bid to place in this auction would be $270 per 50 cases. That's not to say you should pay more, or pay less if you want the opportunity at 50 cases; this simply gives you an idea of what you're going to get when this is all said and done.

You can use the formula above to plug in your own numbers if it helps.

NeedChapmans · 04-22-2014, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by steelers

Very nice work .. Thanks for taking the time to post this info .. Do you mind sharing who you plan on bidding on so we know which lots are going to be off the table .. Lol

I wouldn't be too worried. Only have my eye on two spots in this auction ... no autos.

lakesidez · 04-22-2014, 09:00 PM

BCAP-KM Ketel Marte 1-50 $130
BCAP-KM Ketel Marte 51-100 $130

go_steelers07 · 04-22-2014, 09:30 PM

.......................

..........................

dthimesch · 04-22-2014, 10:40 PM

BP25 Kris Bryant 1-50 $550
BP25 Kris Bryant 51-100 $550

canuhandle23 · 04-22-2014, 10:57 PM

will wait till closer

canuhandle23 · 04-23-2014, 12:51 AM

will wait till closer

tazzy13 · 04-23-2014, 09:25 AM

BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 1-50: $185
BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 51-100: $185

zeeropointzeero · 04-23-2014, 10:18 AM

BCAP-CT Chris Taylor 1-50 $130
BCAP-CT Chris Taylor 51-100 $130
BP14 Chris Taylor 1-50 $40
BP14 Chris Taylor 51-100 $40

Christillman · 04-23-2014, 11:06 AM

BP90 Manuel Margot 1-50 - $55
BP90 Manuel Margot 51-100 - $55

hester72598 · 04-23-2014, 11:09 AM

BP31 Brandon Trinkwon 1-50 $30

BP31 Brandon Trinkwon 51-100 $30

lakesidez · 04-23-2014, 11:16 AM

BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 1-50: $200
BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 51-100: $200

04-22-2014, 11:33 AM	#506
biged_0 Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Lawton, OK Posts: 780 eddiescards-78	BCAP-KP Kyle Parker 1-50 $225 BCAP-KP Kyle Parker 51-100 $225 __________________ I collect former OU Sooners http://s1202.photobucket.com/albums/bb366/biged_0/

04-22-2014, 02:15 PM	#507
houdini member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 81,458	Google Drive: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...FE&usp=sharing __________________ Descanse mi princesita 9/20/00-4/16/15

04-22-2014, 04:01 PM	#508
goblue138 Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: San Diego , Ca Posts: 2,235 itswhatyouneed	Red Wave Ref 1-50 $200 __________________ The carpet sweeper is the biggest scam perpetrated on the American public since one-hour martinizing.

04-22-2014, 04:58 PM	#512
NeedChapmans Member Join Date: Aug 2012 Location: Connecticut Posts: 31,800 ProspectCincy NeedChapmans	Assuming the total amount of cases made is ~11,000 (which would keep print runs on prospect autos the same as 2013, just with more autos) / and that none of the 70 autos is SP'ed ... the following autos would be hit per PROSPECT(per 50 cases) Base /1900 - 8.8 autos per prospect Refractor /500 - 2.2 autos per prospect Blue /150 - 0.7 autos per prospect Black /99 - 0.4 autos per prospect Green /75 - 0.3 autos per prospect Gold /50 - 0.2 autos per prospect Orange /25 - 0.1 autos per prospect Purple /10 + Red /5 + Plate /4 + Superfractor /1 - 0.1 autos per prospect. TOTAL autos PULLED per Prospect, per 50 cases = 12.8 so on average, 1.8 color autos will be pulled per prospect. Now if you're trying to figure out value, let's assume Player X has a base auto that sells for $10 (a guess). Using the ladder to determine value ($10 Base / $20 refractor / $40 Blue / $45 Black / $55 Green / $90 Gold / $140 Orange / $200 Purple / $400 Red / $100 Plate / $1,000 Super, the following expected value can be obtained in a 50 case break: Base ($10)(8.8) = $88.80 Refractor ($20)(2.2) = $44.00 Blue ($40)(0.7) = $28.00 Black ($45)(0.4) = $18.00 Green ($55)(0.3) = $16.50 Gold ($90)(0.2) = $18.00 Orange ($140)(0.1) = $14.00 Purple / Red / Super / Plate ($1,700)(0.1)/4 = $42.50 TOTAL EXPECTED VALUE = $269.80 So trying to put this into perspective ... if you think a player will have the value ladder I used as an example above, the proper bid to place in this auction would be $270 per 50 cases. That's not to say you should pay more, or pay less if you want the opportunity at 50 cases; this simply gives you an idea of what you're going to get when this is all said and done. You can use the formula above to plug in your own numbers if it helps. __________________ It is my legal right to freely profit from the notoriety of people who are actively suffering and possibly even dying and for a few hundred dollars I will gladly seek to maximize those profits.

04-22-2014, 10:40 PM	#518
dthimesch Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Gilbert, AZ Posts: 32,799	BP25 Kris Bryant 1-50 $550 BP25 Kris Bryant 51-100 $550 __________________ @dt_sportscards YouTube

04-22-2014, 04:08 PM	#509
benjamincarm Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: PHX Posts: 889 benjamincarm11	BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 $80 BP37 Maikel Franco 51-100 $80

04-22-2014, 04:11 PM	#510
DCN12586 Banned Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Daphne, Alabama Posts: 4,229 DCN12586	BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 85 BP 37 Maikel Franco 51-100 85

04-22-2014, 04:47 PM	#511
21taylor21-0911 Banned Join Date: May 2010 Location: SW VA Posts: 2,192 redskinsfan19652012	BP37 Maikel Franco 1-50 110

04-22-2014, 09:00 PM	#516
lakesidez Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 6,791	BCAP-KM Ketel Marte 1-50 $130 BCAP-KM Ketel Marte 51-100 $130

04-22-2014, 09:30 PM	#517
go_steelers07 Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Nittany Lion Country Posts: 11,168 psu98	....................... ..........................

04-22-2014, 10:57 PM	#519
canuhandle23 Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,189	will wait till closer Last edited by canuhandle23; 04-23-2014 at 12:51 AM.

04-23-2014, 12:51 AM	#520
canuhandle23 Member Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,189	will wait till closer

04-23-2014, 09:25 AM	#521
tazzy13 Member Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Lowcountry Posts: 8,907 58dscout2007	BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 1-50: $185 BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 51-100: $185 __________________ All price points will be honored for 24 hours after being posted or updated.

04-23-2014, 10:18 AM	#522
zeeropointzeero Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 857	BCAP-CT Chris Taylor 1-50 $130 BCAP-CT Chris Taylor 51-100 $130 BP14 Chris Taylor 1-50 $40 BP14 Chris Taylor 51-100 $40

04-23-2014, 11:06 AM	#523
Christillman Member Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Parrish, FL Posts: 1,671	BP90 Manuel Margot 1-50 - $55 BP90 Manuel Margot 51-100 - $55 __________________ Collecting Tom Brady, Russell Westbrook and Lebron James autos and patches

04-23-2014, 11:09 AM	#524
hester72598 Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: USA Posts: 25,935 hester72598	BP31 Brandon Trinkwon 1-50 $30 BP31 Brandon Trinkwon 51-100 $30

04-23-2014, 11:16 AM	#525
lakesidez Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: Wisconsin Posts: 6,791	BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 1-50: $200 BCAP-KM Ketel Marte- cases 51-100: $200