Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

I don’t think you watch the chiefs ..most casuals tune in randomly only…Hunt was washed, Pacheco keeps running into his people..dude has zero vision …Eric B enhanced the bears run game..I seem him doing the same here with this upgraded RB room…and about Kelce, there won’t be another Kelce..so does that mean chiefs are done? If so, what about the other 31 teams ? Chiefs will be fine even after Kelce …each teams adapts

I watch football. I'm not a casual. A casual or older person would typically point to RBs like this and talk about the run game. In reality that doesn't really matter and it's all based on OL mainly + passing threat/scheme.

The Chiefs offense was dog water last year. The OL wasn't that bad, they ranked top 10-15 in pass pro. I know Jawaan Taylor is trash but even then in pass pro he was decent. Rice/Worthy/Kelce + scrubs like Thornton who is a scrub despite making a few plays, just did not look good last season.

I never said the Chiefs were done. I'm saying they did not meaningfully add a WR or TE via the draft. Late 5th round flyer, maybe he could pan out. But in terms of roster construction, this team's WR/TE room is sneakily getting bad.

I said this all last season and I was proven right. You can say the Chiefs will be fine after Kelce...okay. Maybe. Who are they adding to fill that void? Brady in 2019 looked terrible by comparison to 2020 because that WR/TE room sucked. I'm simply saying, I think the WR/TE receiving room sneakily sucks, it's not F to D tier, but it's like a C- to C+ and it hinges on Rice being an actual WR1 and Kelce bouncing back at age 37 after clear decline - I don't believe in either happening.

[KardsC1]

I think rice , worthy are decent enough ..last year, defenses had no respect for their run game.. …other teams knew all chiefs had was a mid pass game, so that’s when they got exposed ..all defenses had to do was muddy up those mid passes , slants and the chiefs were cooked

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

I don’t think you watch the chiefs ..most casuals tune in randomly only…Hunt was washed, Pacheco keeps running into his people..dude has zero vision …Eric B enhanced the bears run game..I seem him doing the same here with this upgraded RB room…and about Kelce, there won’t be another Kelce..so does that mean chiefs are done? If so, what about the other 31 teams ? Chiefs will be fine even after Kelce …each teams adapts

Put it this way....

Hunt is still unsigned and Pacheco just got a 1 year deal that's $600k over the league minimum from the Lions. Good argument that it was the worst running back room in the league.

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by Tea10

I disagree, I think Kelce is the variable here you're missing. He was an elite TE, all-time great TE. We can't just look at "WR" solely, it's receiver generally that matters and the top guy across 2018-2024 was Kelce. He was in his prime until 2023-2024, now he's becoming washed.

Hill also was a part of the most explosive and dangerous offenses with Mahomes/KC. Even if it resulted it "only" 1 ring, and 1 SB loss. Worthy isn't him.

- Kelce had 152 targets and 1338 yards in 2022, the 2nd SB ring

- Kelce had 136 targets and 1229 yards in 2019, the 1st SB winning year

- Kelce had 121 targets and 984 yards in 2023 in 15 games, 3rd SB win. Rice had 102 targets 938 yards.

Is he still that same guy? I don't think so. And I don't buy the running game stuff either, I think Walker will be a big disappointment to those thinking running will just dominate. Not to be negative, just my take. They needed to address receiver WR/TE.

I don't think anyone on here thinks the running game will dominate; it just needs to be a productive option that is a threat to defenses. The threat of even a 10 to 15 yard rush would make a big difference, which is not something they had last year.

[jacksonjj]

Rated Rookie White Sparkle just sold for over 42k for those of us in the mid range Mahomes market like me that is truly an incredible ATH sale for a non 1/1 and not gold. Mahomes might be irrelevant on the boards right now but his cards sure aren't.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

Rated Rookie White Sparkle just sold for over 42k for those of us in the mid range Mahomes market like me that is truly an incredible ATH sale for a non 1/1 and not gold. Mahomes might be irrelevant on the boards right now but his cards sure aren't.

42k is mid-range oof

I get it, but still that's a lot for a single card.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Tea10

42k is mid-range oof

I get it, but still that's a lot for a single card.

lol it's all relative. 50+ is high end. 5-49k is mid. <5k is low range. ball park

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

lol it's all relative. 50+ is high end. 5-49k is mid. <5k is low range. ball park

You're right, it is all relative. And setting parameters is pretty arbitrary anyway...

But I'd say 40k is high end. Again subjective, but I'd probably say:

0-50 dollars = Pennies to low end
50-200 dollars = low end
200-500 dollars = low-mid
500-1000+ = mid end
5k-15k+ = mid-high end
20k+ = High end
50k+ = Super high end
100k+ = Ultra high end
500k-1M+ = oil prince/uber rich/sus territory

Using Brady if you don't mind i.e. = 2021 Prizm Gold sold for 28.2k on Fanatics this Sunday, I would say that is clearly a mid-high, high end card. Gold /10 2021 Prizm.

A decent grade Rookie Ticket say 8.5 should go for 30-35k currently, certainly a pretty mid-high to high end card to me. 9 BGS/10 Auto probably 40k-45k range, again pretty high end imo but we're not talking Champ Tickets here at 300k-500k+

Currently on Premier the 2025 TC "Legend" Superfractor auto Brady is at 170k with 9 days to go. To throw a Mahomes in here, his TC Superfractor non-auto variation 1/1 is up for 60k.

All subjective or malleable here, but I will say - the high end and super high end is manufactured imo. It's all marketing and pumping now. Who actually wants a Brady 2025 non playing day superfractor or a Mahomes variation non-auto super? Both will go for 300k+ and 100k+ easily if not much more. So the only real pushback I have is that the perception of the high end now is a complete joke because the card space is filled with lower IQ people who are manipulated by marketing/con artists, more or less.

[tjforce]

Looks like the season opener will be Monday night vs Denver.

So much for the speculation that the league will give the Chiefs and easy start to the season if true.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Looks like the season opener will be Monday night vs Denver.

So much for the speculation that the league will give the Chiefs and easy start to the season if true.

Hated seeing that and can't believe they would throw away a premier monday night game with the possibility of no Mahomes to start the season.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Tea10

All subjective or malleable here, but I will say - the high end and super high end is manufactured imo. It's all marketing and pumping now. Who actually wants a Brady 2025 non playing day superfractor or a Mahomes variation non-auto super? Both will go for 300k+ and 100k+ easily if not much more. So the only real pushback I have is that the perception of the high end now is a complete joke because the card space is filled with lower IQ people who are manipulated by marketing/con artists, more or less.

I think about this a lot with some of these ultra-modern six-figure sales. Like, who is really buying these? Or wanting them? Make it make sense.

[jacksonjj]

BO members are only 1% of the card market. There's so much money out there its beyond comprehension.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

I think about this a lot with some of these ultra-modern six-figure sales. Like, who is really buying these? Or wanting them? Make it make sense.

I agree. There is a large percentage that are fake sales.

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

BO members are only 1% of the card market. There's so much money out there its beyond comprehension.

Blowout is also pretty hardcore. This might be a niche place within a niche place, but there's a lot of hardcore collectors and higher end investors of cards here and everyone is pretty knowledgeable generally.

2/10 gold prizm Mahomes owners are in this thread as has been stated, TJForce owns a Brady 2012 gold, Davey owns a RT and Refractor Brady, I'm sure there's a lot of guys with big cards here or sold big cards and had them pre-post boom. Regardless, the Kevin OLeary's and Shynes of the world are businessmen and con-men. There's definitely some whales but how can you believe the multiple big auction houses (owned by Fanatics/PSA too) that benefit from hype and big sales and control the "sales" themselves?

[CorndogWasp]

In my world low end = $100-$1000 cards. The mid range = like $3k-10k and everything after that is high end. Something like a 100k card is like SUPER high end that i dont even really pay attention to it. I dont pay attention to yachts either.

edit: context is mahomes cards not all cards lol

[TheCrow]

I remember back in like 2021 when Mahomes prices were soaring due to his huge success and the covid boom, I got sniped in the last second in an ebay auction for this exact same card. Really wanted it because of the cool patches. It went for something like $860. I saw it come up again last week and thought I would give it a go, but not for that price. Just sold for $3050. So much for the dip...

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/Sm0AA...07/s-l1600.jpg

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Tea10

I agree. There is a large percentage that are fake sales.



Blowout is also pretty hardcore. This might be a niche place within a niche place, but there's a lot of hardcore collectors and higher end investors of cards here and everyone is pretty knowledgeable generally.

2/10 gold prizm Mahomes owners are in this thread as has been stated, TJForce owns a Brady 2012 gold, Davey owns a RT and Refractor Brady, I'm sure there's a lot of guys with big cards here or sold big cards and had them pre-post boom. Regardless, the Kevin OLeary's and Shynes of the world are businessmen and con-men. There's definitely some whales but how can you believe the multiple big auction houses (owned by Fanatics/PSA too) that benefit from hype and big sales and control the "sales" themselves?

I remember Shyne/Matt Allen sold the NT Luka Doncic RPA Logoman supposedly for $4.6M. But all he showed was an invoice and a personal check. Then he "bought it back" for $3.1M a few years later.

No way to verify that $4.6M transaction but a lot of ppl/influencers believed it.

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by Tea10

You're right, it is all relative. And setting parameters is pretty arbitrary anyway...

But I'd say 40k is high end. Again subjective, but I'd probably say:

0-50 dollars = Pennies to low end
50-200 dollars = low end
200-500 dollars = low-mid
500-1000+ = mid end
5k-15k+ = mid-high end
20k+ = High end
50k+ = Super high end
100k+ = Ultra high end
500k-1M+ = oil prince/uber rich/sus territory

Using Brady if you don't mind i.e. = 2021 Prizm Gold sold for 28.2k on Fanatics this Sunday, I would say that is clearly a mid-high, high end card. Gold /10 2021 Prizm.

A decent grade Rookie Ticket say 8.5 should go for 30-35k currently, certainly a pretty mid-high to high end card to me. 9 BGS/10 Auto probably 40k-45k range, again pretty high end imo but we're not talking Champ Tickets here at 300k-500k+

Currently on Premier the 2025 TC "Legend" Superfractor auto Brady is at 170k with 9 days to go. To throw a Mahomes in here, his TC Superfractor non-auto variation 1/1 is up for 60k.

All subjective or malleable here, but I will say - the high end and super high end is manufactured imo. It's all marketing and pumping now. Who actually wants a Brady 2025 non playing day superfractor or a Mahomes variation non-auto super? Both will go for 300k+ and 100k+ easily if not much more. So the only real pushback I have is that the perception of the high end now is a complete joke because the card space is filled with lower IQ people who are manipulated by marketing/con artists, more or less.

you have convinced me on the pumping/manufactured sales (comps) of high end/super high end modern stuff. so many social media "influencers" making huge "sales" and people are watching and eating it up.

To add, that 2025 TC "legend" superfractor Brady is not a $170k card. not even close. there is nothing special about it. they will make another next year. then the next year and so on. I can see there is "speciality" in Mahomes rookie year cards. they are not making any more of those. Same with first year Prizm Golds from 2012. TJ has convinced me those are special. I still see nothing special about say, a 2016 Prizm gold.

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Looks like the season opener will be Monday night vs Denver.

So much for the speculation that the league will give the Chiefs and easy start to the season if true.

So you're saying Patty has an extra day to be ready for week one???

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by dantheman514

So you're saying Patty has an extra day to be ready for week one???

The league rigged it to give him extra rest!!

Actually, it's not week 1 I'd be worried about rather than the 1 day rest disadvantage they'll have week 2. Regardless, looks like Vegas has the Chiefs 2.5 pt favorites at home. So they must thing he'll be back week 1.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by TheCrow

I remember back in like 2021 when Mahomes prices were soaring due to his huge success and the covid boom, I got sniped in the last second in an ebay auction for this exact same card. Really wanted it because of the cool patches. It went for something like $860. I saw it come up again last week and thought I would give it a go, but not for that price. Just sold for $3050. So much for the dip...

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/Sm0AA...07/s-l1600.jpg

mind boggling price for that.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by tjforce

The league rigged it to give him extra rest!!

Actually, it's not week 1 I'd be worried about rather than the 1 day rest disadvantage they'll have week 2. Regardless, looks like Vegas has the Chiefs 2.5 pt favorites at home. So they must thing he'll be back week 1.

rooting for the chiefs obviously but that's a crazy spread. I'm taking the broncos all day and getting 2.5

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

you have convinced me on the pumping/manufactured sales (comps) of high end/super high end modern stuff. so many social media "influencers" making huge "sales" and people are watching and eating it up.

To add, that 2025 TC "legend" superfractor Brady is not a $170k card. not even close. there is nothing special about it. they will make another next year. then the next year and so on. I can see there is "speciality" in Mahomes rookie year cards. they are not making any more of those. Same with first year Prizm Golds from 2012. TJ has convinced me those are special. I still see nothing special about say, a 2016 Prizm gold.

1. Unfortunately. Fanatics bought PWCC and PSA bought Goldin. I think Fanatics at this point only sees PSA in their way of a total vertical/dominant monopoly of the entire "sector". There's too much incentive to make profit for them not to pull shady fake sales and pump cards and create hype and interest.

2. In terms of Prizm, fair. I could make the argument that 2012 Prizm isn't special either. I think 2016 kind of is, especially if 2013 is, why not? 2016 actually had very short print runs for silvers and overall I believe, card looks nice, it's a SB winning year for Brady specifically.

What makes 2012 Prizm special outside "First year!!!" which I don't see as special per se, is the fact that it isn't watered down. The artificial scarcity isn't ridiculous. There's base, silver/prizm, green, red-die cut, and gold. That's it. There's 4 parallels beyond base, one is gold /10, one is SP/SSP Green, and one is a SP/SSP die-cut red. That's it.

Now we go to 2014 Prizm, which I do personally enjoy design wise. I like that year. But the artificial scarcity becomes absurd already and we see:

Base, Silver, Blue, Orange, Green, Red, Neon-Green-Yellow, Red/White/Blue popsicle, Purple, Pink, Tie-dye, Light blue /99, Gold /10, Red Power /125, Panini logo, NFL shield logo, Team logo (just name not emblem lol), Black finite 1/1

Base + 18 parallels

So in a two year span, Panini went from producing the 2012 Prizm product with base + 3 parallels. To producing base + 18 parallels. And it got worse and worse, so to your point yeah 2016 sucks in that sense. From what I see 2016 was Base + 17 parallels, so actually "improved" from 2014. And I believe 2014 had Walmart and Target and store specific colored prizms.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Tea10

2. In terms of Prizm, fair. I could make the argument that 2012 Prizm isn't special either. I think 2016 kind of is, especially if 2013 is, why not? 2016 actually had very short print runs for silvers and overall I believe, card looks nice, it's a SB winning year for Brady specifically.

You're thinking of 2018 Prizm, not 2016.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

You're thinking of 2018 Prizm, not 2016.

Thanks. You're right. Either way, I think it's debatable in general why 2012 Prizm is worth such a premium anyway but that's another can of worms.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Tea10

Thanks. You're right. Either way, I think it's debatable in general why 2012 Prizm is worth such a premium anyway but that's another can of worms.

You just laid out all of the reasons 2012 is worth such a premium in your post. Weirdly, you then argued against it in the same post.