First Buzz: 2025 Topps Chrome football cards

[bg17]

Originally Posted by TMQ

Breakers don't get better cases they simply open incredibly large numbers of the product. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics would realize why it seems like Breakers seem to always hit big cards

Disagree. They always are ripping the best stuff on Release Day. They havent even had time to rip through the large number. I buy cases too on release day. I dont hit sh*t, hardly ever.

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[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by TMQ

Breakers don't get better cases they simply open incredibly large numbers of the product. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics would realize why it seems like Breakers seem to always hit big cards

A single breaker pulled 6 Rookie Debut Patch autos from 2025 Topps Chrome Update.

According to AI:

The odds of a single breaker pulling six of these patches in such a short window are statistically astronomical—calculated by some analysts at roughly 1 in 100 million if using standard distribution.
The "luck" of Filthbomb Breaks is even more improbable when you break down the specific odds for the format they were ripping:

Format Odds: Most of these hits came from Breaker’s Delight boxes, which have "better" odds of 1 in 446 boxes.

The Math: Even at those improved odds, pulling six patches would typically require opening 2,676 boxes (or about 223 cases).

The Outlier: Pulling three in a single three-box break—as happened during their run—carries odds of roughly 1 in 88 million.

[Zeldafanatic15]

I have BS in Math, I'm familiar with odds, I get some breakers open a ton of cases, but even I agree Topps favors some over others, and definitely gives them juiced boxes/cases. Topps knows where big hits go. They can easily control and manipulate where they go.

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[carlo16]

Originally Posted by Zeldafanatic15

I have BS in Math, I'm familiar with odds, I get some breakers open a ton of cases, but even I agree Topps favors some over others, and definitely gives them juiced boxes/cases. Topps knows where big hits go. They can easily control and manipulate where they go.

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What are the odds that anyone cares about your BS in Math?

[yoyosh]

I’m 0-18 on EQL. Feeling pretty priced out of ripping since everything went Fanatics.
Bought the max hangers on Topps drop and busted 10, verrrrry weak.
Got 5 Megas and for once I think it worked out, what do you think?

Rookie QBs and some fun Xfractors(FS xfractors have a print run of ~3500)


A light board, a relic, an auto, and some #d


And the good stuff

[NBAcardfan]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

I’m 0-18 on EQL. Feeling pretty priced out of ripping since everything went Fanatics.
Bought the max hangers on Topps drop and busted 10, verrrrry weak.
Got 5 Megas and for once I think it worked out, what do you think?

Rookie QBs and some fun Xfractors(FS xfractors have a print run of ~3500)


A light board, a relic, an auto, and some #d


And the good stuff

Nic pulls! I'd say you did very well! Is that Burrow Xfractor #'d. That Allen /50 is sweet!

[49erRCCollector]

I have an eBay saved search on the Tecmos and every time I check there's like 30 more.

I don't think these are that limited, at all, maybe even more than people thought.

The auto'd versions do seem quite limited.

[yoyosh]

Originally Posted by NBAcardfan

Nic pulls! I'd say you did very well! Is that Burrow Xfractor #'d. That Allen /50 is sweet!

Yellow X-fractors are not #d. Yea, got so lucky with the Josh Allen!!

[Tonic3]

Found some Mega boxes at Meijer today so I picked some up. Excited that I got them at $70 each and not the absurd marked up price being asked everywhere else online. Asking $150 each is just dumb, nobody should be opening at that price. $70 is bad enough

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

A single breaker pulled 6 Rookie Debut Patch autos from 2025 Topps Chrome Update.

According to AI:

The odds of a single breaker pulling six of these patches in such a short window are statistically astronomical—calculated by some analysts at roughly 1 in 100 million if using standard distribution.
The "luck" of Filthbomb Breaks is even more improbable when you break down the specific odds for the format they were ripping:

Format Odds: Most of these hits came from Breaker’s Delight boxes, which have "better" odds of 1 in 446 boxes.

The Math: Even at those improved odds, pulling six patches would typically require opening 2,676 boxes (or about 223 cases).

The Outlier: Pulling three in a single three-box break—as happened during their run—carries odds of roughly 1 in 88 million.

Even in regulated markets, shady things happen. Unregulated markets is like the Wild West. This is partly why lots of big money has entered the sports card market in recent years.

[NBAcardfan]

Originally Posted by yoyosh

Yellow X-fractors are not #d. Yea, got so lucky with the Josh Allen!!

Okay thanks for the info! Yeah ripping a box now and through 3 packs I have one yellow/lime green and 2 pink ones and unfortunately not #'d lol. Again nice pulls and GL on your next rip Yoyo!

[Seahawks fan]

I saw that Cosmic Chrome Basketball is $800 for a hobby box from Fanatics and $1,100 from the big card pages. That is crazy considering it's just Topps Chrome with ugly designs. Even worse autos fall 2-3 per case. Not a good trend.

[chinesefoosball]

Originally Posted by Seahawks fan

I saw that Cosmic Chrome Basketball is $800 for a hobby box from Fanatics and $1,100 from the big card pages. That is crazy considering it's just Topps Chrome with ugly designs. Even worse autos fall 2-3 per case. Not a good trend.

Even worse, Topps EQL preorder was like $579 or something and they jacked the price up to $900 on release date.

I'd usually feel like I'd have 2 shots at a release, with release day often being $10 more than preorder pricing. Now, it's like get preorder or get screwed and based on the past few weeks, more and more releases are getting dumped into EQL. I'm pretty good at manual purchasing so this is not good for me.

[mykunsitchy]

Originally Posted by TMQ

Breakers don't get better cases they simply open incredibly large numbers of the product. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics would realize why it seems like Breakers seem to always hit big cards

I disagree with this, and as someone with an extensive understanding of statistics due to my profession, I feel I can at least comment on this. When breakers are opening cases and hitting multiple 1:4000 pack hits in individual boxes and cases constantly, while the everyday person is lucky to get even a basic hit, it most definitely is starting to look bad. If I had the time I'd love to actually go through a couple of weeks of the biggest breakers videos and do a full breakdown of hits, etc, vs product size to get a full perspective of it. The statistics argument doesn't hold up either when guys like Skattebo are getting a single box on camera and pulling a super low number auto of his team mate and the product hit, and Brady is opening a single box and doing something similar, and every other celeb who they're giving a box too, or a breaker is having on stream is opening 4 and 5 figure hits in every box.

[setcards]

Originally Posted by mykunsitchy

I disagree with this, and as someone with an extensive understanding of statistics due to my profession, I feel I can at least comment on this. When breakers are opening cases and hitting multiple 1:4000 pack hits in individual boxes and cases constantly, while the everyday person is lucky to get even a basic hit, it most definitely is starting to look bad. If I had the time I'd love to actually go through a couple of weeks of the biggest breakers videos and do a full breakdown of hits, etc, vs product size to get a full perspective of it. The statistics argument doesn't hold up either when guys like Skattebo are getting a single box on camera and pulling a super low number auto of his team mate and the product hit, and Brady is opening a single box and doing something similar, and every other celeb who they're giving a box too, or a breaker is having on stream is opening 4 and 5 figure hits in every box.

Imagine wasting advertising of a celeb break with a dud box… the marketing team just isn’t going to allow that to happen. These are for profit businesses selling product.


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[MattKC]

Somewhat interesting article today about Topps getting the license back and NFL's plan with Topps - the quote from the LCS is on point, can hardly get any product from Topps anymore with the majority allocated to breakers - mentions how upset customers are they cannot go to their local and open a box anymore when they only get allocated a single case:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/724...goodell-rubin/

[Zeldafanatic15]

Originally Posted by MattKC

Somewhat interesting article today about Topps getting the license back and NFL's plan with Topps - the quote from the LCS is on point, can hardly get any product from Topps anymore with the majority allocated to breakers - mentions how upset customers are they cannot go to their local and open a box anymore when they only get allocated a single case:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/724...goodell-rubin/

I've thought about that a lot, especially after seeing some owners discuss it online. I think Topps is trying to push retail more to LCS now, which would defeat the purpose of the hobby shop if they no longer can carry the "hobby" boxes.

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[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by setcards

Imagine wasting advertising of a celeb break with a dud box… the marketing team just isn’t going to allow that to happen. These are for profit businesses selling product.


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I think it would be pretty funny if they showed Tommy B opening a pack all excited only to find base cards. Show like 2-3 more packs...all duds.

Then do a time lapse or insert a "2 hrs later" and show him getting his first hit...an auto of some random offensive lineman. Tom deadpans. Actually Peyton Manning would be good at this, too.

The video would probably go viral and give Topps good publicity anyway.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

Even in regulated markets, shady things happen. Unregulated markets is like the Wild West. This is partly why lots of big money has entered the sports card market in recent years.

Bingo. Just look at this situation for what it is.

-Fanatics operates as a monopoly in an unregulated marketplace.
-They're already accused of hand picking boxes to celebs and their chosen breakers and still sell out of almost every product they produce
-They print to the moon and still sell out
-They raise prices to the moon and still sell out

What's their incentive to play things straight? There's no government oversight. There's not enough ppl willing to speak with their wallets (I include myself in this group).

[mykunsitchy]

Hell, just look at one of the cosmic NBA boxes that backyard just opened in the last couple hours that they 'gave away'. Mind you, this is a single box with some of the hardest to hit numbered cards, autos, case hits, etc. They pulled a superfractor of a tier 1 rookie, a case hit of the top 2 rookie, an SP auto of the top 2 rookie, and a durant /5 from one box. Not from a case, from a single box. One of those in a box fits within a fair enough statistical range, 2 in a box can happen, 3 in a box is pushing it, but 4? Nah, they're getting loaded boxes and there is no way you can say otherwise. Same thing happened with Filthbomb and their NFL breaks. Single boxes with multiple case hits, and then still hitting other case hits within the same case, and then every auto in the case is top tier, numbered, etc. It's gotten absurd, and as has been pointed out, when you have an unregulated industry, this is going to happen over and over.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

I think it would be pretty funny if they showed Tommy B opening a pack all excited only to find base cards. Show like 2-3 more packs...all duds.

Then do a time lapse or insert a "2 hrs later" and show him getting his first hit...an auto of some random offensive lineman. Tom deadpans. Actually Peyton Manning would be good at this, too.

The video would probably go viral and give Topps good publicity anyway.

Which is why they wouldn't allow for it. And these "juiced" boxes and cases keep rolling. as long as someone is in front of the camera.

It is mentioned in the NY Times link above as well. But Topps had Terry Bradshaw busting a box on camera during the draft. One box, and 6 packs in he pulls a SP Jayden Daniels auto. They all made a big stink about how valuable it was, and found a Commanders fan to give it to.

TB was so "lucky" to find that needle in a haystack, in just a handful of packs. Not set up or staged at all

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by Asian62150

Bingo. Just look at this situation for what it is.

-Fanatics operates as a monopoly in an unregulated marketplace.
-They're already accused of hand picking boxes to celebs and their chosen breakers and still sell out of almost every product they produce
-They print to the moon and still sell out
-They raise prices to the moon and still sell out

What's their incentive to play things straight? There's no government oversight. There's not enough ppl willing to speak with their wallets (I include myself in this group).

It's very simple: Fanatics thinks their customer is very stupid or a gambling addict.

And they're right mostly. You can apply the same line of logic to casinos or sportsbooks that you laid out above. FanDuel inexplicably blocked me from wagering on the Nuggets to win the Finals (thanks btw) and set my max wager to 0.00

I could bet on any other team. I could make any other bet. I don't gamble for fun, I bet futures and I always profit every year in every sport I choose. I had a lot of money on the Nuggets and they were 1-0 or 1-1 at the time? and FanDuel decided to just block me from betting on them further - again thanks because they blow and lost to a depleted Wolves team. Point being, Fanatics can and will do whatever they want. Comically enough, they advertise Topps Chrome and Disney Chrome cards on their sportsbook, it's all tied into their "ecosystem" they're soulless corporate shills.

[Bob Ross]

Is everyone excited to not being able to buy mega boxes on Topps today?

[phil]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Is everyone excited to not being able to buy mega boxes on Topps today?

Indifferent since only going $90-95 on ebay.

Wouldn't mind another chance at Fanatics version, they must still be holding a lot of those.

[phil]

Soon to be going for $80 since piece of cake to buy.