**The Perennial MIKE TROUT Thread**

[finfangfan]

If Trout’s performance and health continue to deteriorate, he probably pulls a Chris Davis and retires a year or two early by restructuring the remainder of dollars owed on his contract over several years.

Chris Davis retired with a year left in his big dollar contract extension due to hip injury. He restructured the remaining $25 million or so left in his contract into a long-term deferred payment plan.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

That's not a bad thing to me. It just shows how prisoner of the moment many hobby participants are. Trout has a run twice as long as both Judge and Ohtani as the best player in the league (interrupted by a 2 year Josh Hamilton period), and Trout was universally recognized as the best player while Ohtani and Judge would split the argument.

So long term you would rather be holding Trout than Ohtani or Judge? Over time things change. Of course Ohtani and Judge will decline as they age. But both have better hobby moments on their resume and better peaks than Trout. Trout kills in WAR accumulation. But if he doesn't hit major longevity milestones or wins a WS ring in the future, I am not sure the hobby will support his current card prices long term. He was never as popular as Griffey Jr. So I am not exactly sure what you are trying to convey.

[daveyc1]

Trout never sniffed Griffey Jr's popularity.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Trout never sniffed Griffey Jr's popularity.

Thats my point! Long term his hobby standing is going to continue to deteriorate if he does not get to at least 500 HR or wins a WS.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So long term you would rather be holding Trout than Ohtani or Judge? Over time things change. Of course Ohtani and Judge will decline as they age. But both have better hobby moments on their resume and better peaks than Trout. Trout kills in WAR accumulation. But if he doesn't hit major longevity milestones or wins a WS ring in the future, I am not sure the hobby will support his current card prices long term. He was never as popular as Griffey Jr. So I am not exactly sure what you are trying to convey.

It's not simply comparing them apples to apples.

The question is really would I prefer to hold Ohtani at 10x Mike Trout, or Judge at 1.5x Trout?

Trout by a mile when you factor in the premium required for Ohtani or Judge.

In baseball, iconic moments matter much less than the other sports. Baseball has always *generally* been about whole careers. There isn't a baseball superbowl. This isn't soccer with iconic goal scoring. There's no potential for an Aaron Judge chasedown block in the championship.

When I think of baseball the first player that comes to mind is still Mike Trout. I do own cards of all three. Judge and Ohtani prices have gone nuclear because they play in gigantic markets. If Judge played in Minnesota his prices would be much less.

[Grave252]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Thats my point! Long term his hobby standing is going to continue to deteriorate if he does not get to at least 500 HR or wins a WS.

I've said that many times in here. It's not a dig at Trout, it's just the reality. He has no career defining moments, no postseason success, and no personality to transcend the game. On top of that, his injuries hindered him from reaching the counting stats that many had assumed he would hit. He had an elite career and carried the hobby for a decade...but I just don't really think in 20 years he's the type of player people are going to tell their kids about. Maybe I am wrong, but I think the hobby will move past Trout pretty quickly when he hangs them up. To me, his mid to higher end cards have plenty of room to fall.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by Grave252

I've said that many times in here. It's not a dig at Trout, it's just the reality. He has no career defining moments, no postseason success, and no personality to transcend the game. On top of that, his injuries hindered him from reaching the counting stats that many had assumed he would hit. He had an elite career and carried the hobby for a decade...but I just don't really think in 20 years he's the type of player people are going to tell their kids about. Maybe I am wrong, but I think the hobby will move past Trout pretty quickly when he hangs them up. To me, his mid to higher end cards have plenty of room to fall.

Unfortunately his biggest claim to fame (outside of his 3 MVPs) is being the "WAR king" of the 2010's. Which.....doesn't resonate with most fans.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

It's not simply comparing them apples to apples.

The question is really would I prefer to hold Ohtani at 10x Mike Trout, or Judge at 1.5x Trout?

Trout by a mile when you factor in the premium required for Ohtani or Judge.

In baseball, iconic moments matter much less than the other sports. Baseball has always *generally* been about whole careers. There isn't a baseball superbowl. This isn't soccer with iconic goal scoring. There's no potential for an Aaron Judge chasedown block in the championship.

When I think of baseball the first player that comes to mind is still Mike Trout. I do own cards of all three. Judge and Ohtani prices have gone nuclear because they play in gigantic markets. If Judge played in Minnesota his prices would be much less.

Listen, I don't really have skin in this game. I have 5 raw Trout #175 RC that I paid like $500. I have more Judge, and I have a huge Ohtani collection that I mainly accumulated from 2021-2025.

I have no idea what your situation is or how much you have of each player or how much you paid.

But you seem to be saying at today's current prices if someone were to just be entering the hobby you would tell them Trout RC cards are going to do better long term than Judge or Ohtani?

I just don't see the justification...but I guess time will tell.

[FatboyWu]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Listen, I don't really have skin in this game. I have 5 raw Trout #175 RC that I paid like $500. I have more Judge, and I have a huge Ohtani collection that I mainly accumulated from 2021-2025.

I have no idea what your situation is or how much you have of each player or how much you paid.

But you seem to be saying at today's current prices if someone were to just be entering the hobby you would tell them Trout RC cards are going to do better long term than Judge or Ohtani?

I just don't see the justification...but I guess time will tell.

I didn't see JJJ say anything about long term prices or who was the better investment. You're in the Mike Trout thread and you're surprised someone would rather have Trout cards over Ohtani or Judge. A lot of people buy cards for their collection and not their investment portfolios so they're not really worried about long term prices. I finally got my Mike Trout Gold RC at the beginning of the year, will it go down in price, probably...don't care, I've wanted that card for a decade so that's my justification. Also how did you score 5 raw Trout rc's for $500, you got a great deal.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by FatboyWu

I didn't see JJJ say anything about long term prices or who was the better investment. You're in the Mike Trout thread and you're surprised someone would rather have Trout cards over Ohtani or Judge. A lot of people buy cards for their collection and not their investment portfolios so they're not really worried about long term prices. I finally got my Mike Trout Gold RC at the beginning of the year, will it go down in price, probably...don't care, I've wanted that card for a decade so that's my justification. Also how did you score 5 raw Trout rc's for $500, you got a great deal.

Yes this is a Trout forum. But JJJ did say he would rather hold Trout long term at today's prices compared to Ohtani and Judge.

June 2025 I bought 5 raw Trout RC's for actually $450. It was a BIN! I think all 5 are at least 9's, and maybe a few have the potential to GEM. The seller said they were pack pulled. No idea on why he was willing to part with them for so cheap!

[FatboyWu]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Yes this is a Trout forum. But JJJ did say he would rather hold Trout long term at today's prices compared to Ohtani and Judge.

June 2025 I bought 5 raw Trout RC's for actually $450. It was a BIN! I think all 5 are at least 9's, and maybe a few have the potential to GEM. The seller said they were pack pulled. No idea on why he was willing to part with them for so cheap!

Wow, nice get.

[seanrs1]

As I said before...I want Trout to become productive again. I want him to hit as many milestones as possibly. Would be great to see him get traded his last few years to a WS team and win for once in his career.

But at this point all of those things don't look that attainable right now. Things could change.

To me his long term hobby standing looks pretty bleak at the moment.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Listen, I don't really have skin in this game. I have 5 raw Trout #175 RC that I paid like $500. I have more Judge, and I have a huge Ohtani collection that I mainly accumulated from 2021-2025.

I have no idea what your situation is or how much you have of each player or how much you paid.

But you seem to be saying at today's current prices if someone were to just be entering the hobby you would tell them Trout RC cards are going to do better long term than Judge or Ohtani?

I just don't see the justification...but I guess time will tell.

I'm not actually saying that because I didn't say that. I said from today forward the *safest hold imo would be Trout. Trout is the only player with a decade of already-did-it performance. The vast vast majority of Ohtani's value is speculative, and to a lesser extent Judge is speculative, but still very speculative.

Trout's market from today forward can't halve 50%. Even if he retired today it ain't crashing 50%. Ohtani's market from today on can easily crash 50% because the market cap graph is so absurdly exponentially increased right now.

[jacksonjj]

For anyone interested ALT has listed the 2011 Trout Superfractor on live auction. The true non auto Bowman rookie, not the draft version.

Insane card.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

I'm not actually saying that because I didn't say that. I said from today forward the *safest hold imo would be Trout. Trout is the only player with a decade of already-did-it performance. The vast vast majority of Ohtani's value is speculative, and to a lesser extent Judge is speculative, but still very speculative.

Trout's market from today forward can't halve 50%. Even if he retired today it ain't crashing 50%. Ohtani's market from today on can easily crash 50% because the market cap graph is so absurdly exponentially increased right now.

Last Trout 2011 US 175 PSA 10 sold for $775. If he retired today I agree it would not go down 50%, but it would for sure go down. To me Judge has the least amount of risk long term at today's prices. His cards look super cheap compared to Trout.

[finfangfan]

Here are the last 8 months of sales on COMC according to the Sales history they are temporarily providing to users…

[caflisch78]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

For anyone interested ALT has listed the 2011 Trout Superfractor on live auction. The true non auto Bowman rookie, not the draft version.

Insane card.

Alt needs to up their game, what a terrible photo for a 6 figure auction item.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I understand positional adjustment. However, there are instances where players are kept in a position for which they no longer should be playing. look at Jeter. after NY acquired ARod, there is no baseball reason jeter should have continued on as SS. but he was kept there and continued to receive the positional adjustment bump in his WAR even though he was a terrible SS. He did not deserve that bump.

same with trout in CF. he was an average CF maybe for the first half of his career. he has been below average for a number of years. yet, he continues "earning" that WAR bump.

If you are bad defender that accounts against you in WAR. You aren't given the positional adjustment and then done with defense. Another misconception about WAR.

[49ersSF]

Nobody is questioning how the formula for WAR works; they are questioning the formula itself. It's heavily flawed and should be done away with.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

If you are bad defender that accounts against you in WAR. You aren't given the positional adjustment and then done with defense. Another misconception about WAR.

Enter: Dante Bichette. 5.9 career WAR despite slashing .299/.336/.499 over a 14 year career. Yeah, Coors field and the roids era knock down his WAR, but his defense....WOOOF.

In 1999, he posted a .298/.354/.541 triple slash with 34 HR, 133 RBI, yet posted an overall -2.3 WAR. Lol

He was also literally one of the worst baserunners in baseball during the time he played too.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Nobody is questioning how the formula for WAR works; they are questioning the formula itself. It's heavily flawed and should be done away with.

I don't think people want WAR to be done away with. I think people just need to understand that its a good, but imperfect way to judge players. It seems to really boost CF and SS, and really penalizes a DH.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I don't think people want WAR to be done away with. I think people just need to understand that its a good, but imperfect way to judge players. It seems to really boost CF and SS, and really penalizes a DH.

Imagine if Ohtani had played CF during his 50/50 season and was just an average CF (put up 9.1 or 9.2 WAR according to which system you use). Would have probably posted an 11+ WAR season. And if he was actually above average? Maybe 12+ WAR.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Nobody is questioning how the formula for WAR works; they are questioning the formula itself. It's heavily flawed and should be done away with.

Many are and no. If you don't like it don't pay attention to it. Others will

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I don't think people want WAR to be done away with. I think people just need to understand that its a good, but imperfect way to judge players. It seems to really boost CF and SS, and really penalizes a DH.

How much do DHs contribute on defense compared to a CF or SS?

There are 2 components to winning a game offense and pitching/defense.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Imagine if Ohtani had played CF during his 50/50 season and was just an average CF (put up 9.1 or 9.2 WAR according to which system you use). Would have probably posted an 11+ WAR season. And if he was actually above average? Maybe 12+ WAR.

Being an average CF in MLB is a huge deal. If you aren't good enough to play center you move down the defensive spectrum, to left or right.

Is Ohtani good enougn to play CF? Probably not, but who knows with him as he does things nobody else can