Trevor lawrence

[Geoff868]

Im surprised his cards haven't increased all that much. Former 1st overall pick just had a great season. Is anyone high on him going forward?

[mjekase]

His second year was arguably his best, and he's been up-and-down since. He needs to repeat this past year for a few more consecutive seasons and have some playoff success before his cards go up, in my opinion.

[Tea10]

They seem pretty fair valued. I get what you're saying though. Comparatively to Allen/Jackson/Burrow perhaps they are low. I would argue the other three are inflated.

This will be the fate of most, if not all, the 2023-2026 rookie QBs who's cards are selling at unreasonably high prices too, due to prospecting.

I mean hey, does the 2023 class have any love right now? It shouldn't but, Stroud had a few bad games and is now considered a bum. Bryce Young sort of had a bounce back year. But this is what happens, people buy young QBs/prospect/gamble and they lose 99% of the time. People got lucky on Mahomes, I think he's the only real winner I can even think of outside of a 1-2 year blip.

[Scottish Punk]

Agreed, I think a lot of collectors are still burned by TLaw. He is going to have to put together a complete season with post season wins to move the needle on his cards.

As Tea10, states these QB rookie cards start out really high and then fall if there aren't MVPs and Super Bowls. This happens in all the sports and I am amazed that "we" as collectors largely fall in the same trap every year. The 2024 class is getting some love right with Caleb, Maye, and to a lesser extent Nix. We soon forgot that Daniels was the darling with all the high value. If those other three just have "good" seasons this year, their stuff will fall. I shudder to think of how much money is going to poured into Dart this off season.

[Geoff868]

Some very good replies here! Ive been collecting mostly the big 4 of 2024 qb class. I can definitely see a scenario where their cards tank unless they become studs. Might have to.baclk off a bit. Im hoping at least 1 is a future hall of famer. Regardless im having a blast anyway.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by Geoff868

Im surprised his cards haven't increased all that much. Former 1st overall pick just had a great season. Is anyone high on him going forward?

If this was in year 1 or 2, sure. I'd agree with this take. But he is going into year 6. No one is really speculating on what he might become. As he pretty much is what he is by now.

A good, but not elite QB. He will get you 4000 yards, 25 TDs and a dozen picks each season. And he will win half his games. The AFC South is not some sort of juggernaut to tamed. And yet, he is just Meh.

5 years, 1 playoff win. And even in that game, he threw 4 INTs and won by a single point.

The money is always on the new guy who *might* be the next Brady or Mahomes. After half a decade in the league, T-Law simply is not that. And his prices reflect that. Good, not great. just like him.

[Brobocop]

I really like TLaw but I'd be lying if he hasn't come to losing me here and there as a Jags fan. I think the back-half of the season last year was very promising but outside of winning a Super Bowl, and being a major driver of that win, his prices are what they are. I'm not complaining since I've been able to get a few cards here and there but never have spent more than I was willing to lose if it went to zero.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Geoff868

Some very good replies here! Ive been collecting mostly the big 4 of 2024 qb class. I can definitely see a scenario where their cards tank unless they become studs. Might have to.baclk off a bit. Im hoping at least 1 is a future hall of famer. Regardless im having a blast anyway.

Collecting all 4 gets risky and expensive. I'd be much more comfortable collecting in a perennial mvp candidate like Josh Allen if you're going to gamble.

[lisaandmattcard]

I completely agree - I've been picking up his 1/1 autographed pre-production proofs - some for like $100! INSANE! I know people don't love Leaf but $100 for a 1/1 Auto - CRAZY!!!!!! I'll be a buyer at $100 for as long as I still have money in my bank lol

[tjforce]

Look at a guy like Matt Stafford and see how cheap his stuff goes for.

Long term there's almost no value in QBs who is outside the top 3-4 of his generation. Taking a look at where Lawrence fits in among the "Mt Rushmore" of this era's QBs:

-Mahomes has a spot locked

So that leaves you:
-Allen has 1 MVP and incredible numbers
-Lamar has 2 MVP
-Hurts has 1 Super Bowl win, 2 NFC titles
-Burrow went to the Super Bowl and has the lore of a game he won 5 seasons ago which seems to never leave him
-Herbert has some great stats: 1.5 years older but 65 more TDs and 7k more yards
-Brock Purdy has been to a Super Bowl and runs Shanahans offense

Those are the somewhat established guys, then you have QBs like Maye, Caleb, Love, Daniels, Nix, and Stroud who's careers all will play out one way or another.

You'd have to make a case that Lawrence will end up having a better career and being more liked that all but 2-3 of those guys to have long term collectability. I'm not saying it's impossible, but a guy who 5 years through his career has 98 TD passes, a 35-42 record, and 1 playoff win, and plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars is already behind the 8ball, even if he is a pretty good QB.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Look at a guy like Matt Stafford and see how cheap his stuff goes for.

Long term there's almost no value in QBs who is outside the top 3-4 of his generation. Taking a look at where Lawrence fits in among the "Mt Rushmore" of this era's QBs:

-Mahomes has a spot locked

So that leaves you:
-Allen has 1 MVP and incredible numbers
-Lamar has 2 MVP
-Hurts has 1 Super Bowl win, 2 NFC titles
-Burrow went to the Super Bowl and has the lore of a game he won 5 seasons ago which seems to never leave him
-Herbert has some great stats: 1.5 years older but 65 more TDs and 7k more yards
-Brock Purdy has been to a Super Bowl and runs Shanahans offense

Those are the somewhat established guys, then you have QBs like Maye, Caleb, Love, Daniels, Nix, and Stroud who's careers all will play out one way or another.

You'd have to make a case that Lawrence will end up having a better career and being more liked that all but 2-3 of those guys to have long term collectability. I'm not saying it's impossible, but a guy who 5 years through his career has 98 TD passes, a 35-42 record, and 1 playoff win, and plays for the Jacksonville Jaguars is already behind the 8ball, even if he is a pretty good QB.

Yep, Mahomes and Lamar are pretty much locks for HOF. Mahomes already is. Lamar just needs a touch of post season success or just moving up all time stats. He will have more rushing yards than HOF rbs. Allen is pretty much the same thing. Lamar with a second MVP gives him a bit more wiggle room, imo. The rest including the fresh young crop needs hardware. Hurts may end up with Russel Wilson career path.

[KardsC1]

People act like if Herbert or Tlaw wins 1 SB, they gain big prices …just look at Hurts or any other qb with one SB win…sorry to burst your bubble ..collectors look for goats or generational guys only