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| FOOTBALL Post your Football Cards Hobby Talk |
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#19501 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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2. What you did was virtually the same as going all-in or dumping the majority of your liquid assets into BTC. Say dumping 50k cash into BTC in 2017 when it was 2k-10k a coin, and then selling at 100-120k. You took an extreme risk, got lucky, won, and are not only gloating about it, but pretending you had some master plan. 3. The SP500 point proves this, I'm assuming you're just going off 8-10% average returns annually, but if you're smashing those returns in 1/3rd, 1/4th the time horizon then obviously what you did was inherently a massive risk. 4. Another layer of extreme luck, even beyond Mahomes/Curry winning multiple titles + perofrmance each after assumed purchase dates, is choosing a random card/set. You may pretend or think you had some grand plan, but there is no real rhyme or reason why Prizm flagship is worth this much. Panini sucks, everyone hates them. This was pumped. You and TJ are actively pumping too here, clearly, whether you even realize it or not. Maybe following Basketball pumps is the only logical and cunning explanation here other than dumb luck. There is no reason why "first year" or 2nd/3rd year Prizm 2012-2014 is worth this much for example when a 2017 Brady Stained Glass Gold Mojo /10 is up currently for 25k and probably ends at 40k-50k tops v.s. the second year 2013 gold Brady going for 99k a few days ago. No one can explain this. The only logical explanation is a pump, perceived value, FOMO, because stained glass is a rare insert and this is a gold /10 of that first year issue of that cool design insert, for example. Just an aside. Prizm is sought after, correct. But it was probably pumped. And you were lucky to choose it over other equal/better sets in terms of appreciation. 5. Your last point kind of sums it all up. This is your identity. You identify as this mastermind high end card investor. Patrick Mahomes liked your video. Cool. You made a lot of money off your card investment, cool. This may be true, but it's not mutually exclusive from the other facts that you got extremely lucky and took an extremely stupid risk for having a family of 5. So like I said, I don't care to be negative. But you were trying to talk down to me. I don't broadcast my wealth or what I have here. I'm significantly younger than you and I have more money than you did when you made that post asking for advice. I don't care to say that, it's d-bag esque. But since you're thinking you're some mastermind here. In reality you got very, very lucky. What you did could have easily swung the other way. Which is why I personally only allocate maybe 2-3% tops of my wealth into cards. If your ~50-100k in cards pre-covid didn't do so well you'd be absolutely boned on your 55k salary with 3 kids. Lucky they pumped prizm and Mahomes/Curry performed/won titles and the FED printed a ton of money for you. That's the truth. Good luck from there, hope you don't high risk 50% assets again. |
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#19502 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 10,856
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#19503 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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#19504 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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A lot of it has to do with manipulation, marketing, pumping, and corruption essentially in the high end card space. But some of it is clearly nostalgia, popularity, exposure, high end sets, desirable sets. You can go get any crappy 1/1 for around 1k or so. I almost got a gold vinyl for 750-1200 dollars 1/1 multiple times this summer/fall I recall. But it was a Panini National or VIP or something, it wasn't "desireable" even though it was a "gold" and 1/1. Certain sets and inserts/parallels get hyped up and desirable "for some reason". Obviously they're pumped in some cases. So if you're confused based on that? It makes sense. The goat kid had a semi-decent point about the /250 Champ Ticket for example. 2001 playoff Brady is legitimately rare. A silver /400 and a gold /100 and a Sample (which I own) that has a total graded pop count of 12. There were only two sets in 2001 Brady appeared in, Playoff Preferred and UD F/X. Both are high end companies and good+ sets. So there is no logical reason why you can get a 2002 Champ Ticket - the next sequential copy to the most iconic 2000 Rookie/Champ Ticket, for roughly the price of a 2014 silver Prizm or Select prizm (I own both). It doesn't quite make sense that the 2001 psuedo-rookie card which is the first iteration of National Treasures that I know of, for Brady certainly, and the Silver print run is obviously way lower than a prizm and the Gold is /100 but you'd have to imagine not many survived packs. The Sample is literally sub 15-20 pop total graded. So why would these sell for a rate also similar or less than a 2014 (3rd year Prizm, 2nd year Select) Silver Brady? At the end of the day this is a very corrupt space full of marks. Some people think they cracked a code - maybe they have. But I think a lot of people simply prospected/bought cards prior to a massive boom. Some were legit collectors who had big pieces that suddenly 10x'd, 50x'd overnight. Brady rookies aren't the end all be all, but I also think chasing "high end" cards is dangerous as they're pretty obviously manipulated. You got Logan Paul pumping and Kevin O'Leary pumping, Rubin is a rat tooth and Fanatics is ironically using Brady to pump, selling a refractor to Wahlberg, they're going full force marketing. And at the high end, there's whales - rich asians, saudi princes, rich Americans, whoever. And massive auction houses who have an incentive to create hype and FOMO and create excitement for the next thing. Which just happened to be gold prizms, gold select, gold anything, fake colored foil. Is what it is. |
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#19505 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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#19506 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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There is so much info and layers that I’m not in a position to analyze. But it’s all very interesting
In baseball is pretty much first bowman and Topps chrome/Topps heritage ROA rookies as the most desirable options. Pokémon if you all the way back is 1st edition base set. Football and basketball as I’m learning has so many different options and types of rookies Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#19507 |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2024
Posts: 537
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It’s all about gold /10 an black finite 1/1 of the “Base” Prizm card…no one really cares about Panini national sets, nor golds of inserts…whether it’s fomo or manipulation, that’s what the chase is now …either go with it or fall behind …the real reason behind most chases are lineage and rarity …Prizm is the flag ship set for a long time now ..there’s no denying that …high end folks like owning stuff that are rare but recognizable (iconic in a sense)…no one wants to own a 1/1 that no one knows about ..cards are now a “dic@“ measuring stick now a days for some
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#19508 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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In terms of Pokemon, I know vintage. There's a lot of valuable/desired sets outside of base set I. Expedition/Aquapolis/Skyridge for example has some high value cards. I guess within Pokemon my example of a very cool, scarce set where the values are so low it doesn't make sense would be the "Best of Game" Winner set. I own a Mewtwo Winner. That is the last WotC set they ever made, cool designs, "winner" gold stamp, very low pop. So I'm not sure what you're asking here but yeah there's a ton of variety clearly and it gets complicated. For Football? Panini era - the top sets are/were National Treasures, Flawless, Immaculate/etc and the mid-high end desireable sets were - Contenders, Prizm, Select. With more nuance thrown in like Optic Contenders, Black, One/Encased?, whatever. Then prior to Poopnini? Pumpednini? Well, now we're opening a can of worms but Contenders, NT, UD exquisite, UD ultimate, Topps Finest, Topps Chrome, Bowman Chrome, etc, etc, etc. SP Authentic/BC are top value Brady rookies for a reason even though they're /1250 and 10k+ graded pop respectively. At the end of the day bro, I collect what I like. But I also don't burn money and buy stupid s-. So while I push back on the gold prizm lords, I do own quite a bit of Prizm refractors/silvers/colors, I own Select prizm, I own Finest refractors. I have a 2002 Champ ticket, a 2001 sample, etc. Just collect what you like and make sure it's a half decent set/brand I'd say. If you're super concerned about appreciation and value, well I don't think anyone could have predicted the 2020+ Covid boom. That's where most of the value gained by genius card investors came from. And I don't think Brady is going to win any more MVPs or SBs, or appreciate greatly from zero to 3 SB like Mahomes did from 2017-2024. So, really you're just riding the total market w/Brady, and maybe his prices jump if Mahomes fails (which they arguably just did post ACL tear). |
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#19509 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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But it's the same exact reason why a bowman chrome Brady is worth so much even though there's over 10k copies graded probably. But at the same time: https://www.fanaticscollect.com/mark..._v1_price_desc - This doesn't quite make sense to me, that a 2012 PSA 10 Silver Prizm Brady is at 15.5k currently on Fanatics and the Pristine 10 (better grade) BGS Bowman Chrome is at 13k. Like, at that point come on. This is where I see the market manip/pump/fomo clear as day. 2012 might be the first year for Panini Prizm, but who gives a flying F-? Panini sucks. It's not a liked era of cards. 2012 is Brady's 13th season. And while the silver has a graded pop of maybe 120 total? It's watered down by base + all other color prizms. You can argue BC has paper watering it down I guess? Different set though, it's pop is high, but it's a rookie card. Not to go off on a tangent here, but this is a D measuring contest FOMO manipulation - So when Topps gets the NFL license, is Mahomes' 10th season first year Finest refractor going to be going for more than his 2017 Silver Prizm? Because that is the logic here. |
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#19510 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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I don’t think I’m asking anything. More just talking out loud lol. I do agree with Pokémon. Those E-Reader sets are beautiful and then it gets even crazier when you get into trophy cards. I only mention base set 1st edition because they would technically be considered rookie cards since they are the very first set. But then an argument could be made for no rarity as well Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#19511 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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Quote:
Not to rip off on a tangent, but you know you could have bought a Tom Brady Championship Ticket for less than 2k, less than 5k even after the 4th ring? Even after the 5th ring it was still going for sub 5k-10k range. This was 2016-2017. My point being, I'd be wary of listening to any super investors in the card world. Mostly they got lucky, not to talk s- on anyone but it's just how I see it. Doesn't take a Charlie Munger or Chris Hohn or Jim Simons to buy a Tom Brady Champ Ticket at 2k-6k after 4-5 rings, probably as a fan, and then suddenly have it 100x-300x into the 600k+ sale it just did the other day. It's dumb luck. Like buying Mahomes as a fan of the Chiefs, year 1-2, then having him blossom into an all-timer, covid big bang, 3 rings, and similar concept. So, I view this as an alternative asset realm where I collect what I like. I'm definitely not going to drop thousands on Maye cards and I believe Gronk is the GOAT TE but I can't even bring myself to "waste" 250 bucks on a nice auto of his because I know the appreciation isn't there like a Brady, it is a waste. Guess I'm just talking to at this point too but those are my thoughts, I basically collect while being aware of value proposition. |
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#19512 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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I try to buy a lot of my stuff as a fan. So it’s also of Eagles cards. Mostly Jalen and Foles. When I collected baseball it was all for investment and it just wasn’t my thing. That’s not saying it isn’t for other collectors. I collect Brady because he’s the goat. It’s like if I was a fan of basketball I would collect MJ. Also I grew up watching Brady so that era is pretty much etched into my memory Who knows where his cards will end up but I’m trying to enjoy the journey as much as I can now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#19513 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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So I wanted the advice of the Brady community. Due to some life reasons I’m going to take a break from collecting. So I won’t be buying for a bit. I want to buy one last Brady before taking a break.
The three options I was thinking are these. I’m in around a 2k price range A bowman rookie A non rookie auto Tampa card What do you guys recommend? Also I will still be on here so I can keep hanging with everyone here ![]() Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#19514 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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Big Brady sale
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#19515 | |
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 1,515
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$2k gives you options. Does it have to be one card? It can be multiple nice ones for $2k. |
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#19516 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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#19517 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: maine
Posts: 2,307
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#19518 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: maine
Posts: 2,307
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also, do you have a list of rookies that you already own so we dont recommend ones you already have?
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#19519 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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I'll give you my opinion. First off, you want one single card? An auto is crossed off the list, you own the Fleer Autographics RC auto and you're not getting a better auto even later years for 2k, let alone 3k. It's tough because it's a weird price point for a single card kind. So I'm going to cheat:
Option 1: 2000 Tom Brady UD Gold Reserve - There's a BGS 9 copy up for 2.4k with best offer. Maybe you could find a deal somewhere. I don't own this card but I think it's a very good looking card + "gold". Option 2: 2017 or 2018 Tom Brady Stained Glass Prizm Option 3 / Cheat option: I own most of these cards and I think they are very cool looking and have value: 2020 Mosaic Stained Glass TB 1st year / SB year, 2014 Panini Prizm Silver, 2020 and 2021 Stained Glass Prizm. Maybe you could get a 1/1 if you searched too but it might be kind of eh. Option 4: Fleer Showcase 2000 RC, great looking card. |
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#19520 |
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Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 23,829
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Decent price for the 13th year card
__________________
"Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it’s the best thing going. Wooooo!" |
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#19521 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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#19522 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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1. TJ you only post about 2012-2013 Prizm in this thread and you own a gold 2012 BGS 9 (allegedly). Be less obvious bro.
2. https://youtu.be/wD7n8kHvySs Already knew this but grading is a scam. It is. That video isn't shocking but it is at the same time, just embarassing. Another ruse and scam because the card space is filled with not so bright people generally and gambling addicts. Grading is basically another form of gambling too, at this point, especially for TCG. Now for sports too. PSA 10 is a joke, pop controlled, and the grading companies are all jokes. Some guy has 9>10 here, amen. |
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#19523 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2024
Posts: 2,183
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I really like the idea of a nice stained glass. Didn’t think of them. I’ll look into it. Thank you! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#19524 |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2025
Posts: 826
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Yeah good luck. I saw a lot of them up over the summer for good prices, now there's barely any. Maybe you can find one on auction on ebay or Fanatics, but good luck. I do really like Stained Glass. A gold/10 just went for 26k the other day you missed your chance.
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#19525 | |
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 10,856
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