Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[ThoseBackPages]

hahahahah!

[Rooftop]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have just now entered the greatest transfer of wealth in history and it will make the pandemic stimulus look like a dirty penny on the sidewalk. 124 trillion dollars will be inherited by 2048, and the largest chunk of that money will be going to millennials. There are undoubtedly philosophical differences in how each generation views money. I suspect many of the boomers who are leaving this money behind were rather conservative. They started accumulating wealth long before speculative investing became trendy and many simply stayed the course and decided not to take big risks. Now they are about to hand all of that money to a younger generation that isn't shy about speculative investments. What do you suppose they will do with it?

Obviously this money is coming from somewhere so there could very well be volatility from market to market. For example, if millennials are more likely to sell their parents' homes and invest that money in crypto, you could see a downturn in the housing market as inventory increases and that money moves away from real estate, while simultaneously seeing another crypto pump. If millennials instead choose to move into their parents' homes, perhaps the rental market declines as people ditch their rentals and settle into the homes their parents have already paid off. You could see bonds cashed out and put into stocks, or stocks cashed out and put into crypto, or, since this is a sports card forum, more cash now going into cards.

Either way, a whole lot of money is about to be handed to a whole lot of "bois" and that is good enough reason for me to be a permabull. Perhaps they all crap out by 2055 and the bears finally ravage the world, but I'm thinking this window of "hot" markets is far from closing.

How could inventory increase if someone buys the house?

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

How could inventory increase if someone buys the house?

I think he's saying inventory would increase as more Boomers pass away.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have just now entered the greatest transfer of wealth in history and it will make the pandemic stimulus look like a dirty penny on the sidewalk. 124 trillion dollars will be inherited by 2048, and the largest chunk of that money will be going to millennials. There are undoubtedly philosophical differences in how each generation views money. I suspect many of the boomers who are leaving this money behind were rather conservative. They started accumulating wealth long before speculative investing became trendy and many simply stayed the course and decided not to take big risks. Now they are about to hand all of that money to a younger generation that isn't shy about speculative investments. What do you suppose they will do with it?

Obviously this money is coming from somewhere so there could very well be volatility from market to market. For example, if millennials are more likely to sell their parents' homes and invest that money in crypto, you could see a downturn in the housing market as inventory increases and that money moves away from real estate, while simultaneously seeing another crypto pump. If millennials instead choose to move into their parents' homes, perhaps the rental market declines as people ditch their rentals and settle into the homes their parents have already paid off. You could see bonds cashed out and put into stocks, or stocks cashed out and put into crypto, or, since this is a sports card forum, more cash now going into cards.

Either way, a whole lot of money is about to be handed to a whole lot of "bois" and that is good enough reason for me to be a permabull. Perhaps they all crap out by 2055 and the bears finally ravage the world, but I'm thinking this window of "hot" markets is far from closing.

Several good points, but I'm thinking quite a sizeable chunk of boomers will spend much of their money on vacations/cruises, recreational vehicles, Harleys, and other miscellaneous crap long before it ever gets handed down to their kids.

[Rooftop]

Generation X will have the inheritance first, and they don’t give f*c) about anything

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by Rooftop

Generation X will have the inheritance first, and they don’t give f*c) about anything

Especially Millennials.

[jkampis]

So, any card shows this weekend?

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf

Several good points, but I'm thinking quite a sizeable chunk of boomers will spend much of their money on vacations/cruises, recreational vehicles, Harleys, and other miscellaneous crap long before it ever gets handed down to their kids.

That isn't how that generation rolls. They are savers. So yes, some will spend, but they will be the outliers. And almost none of these boomers are going to reverse mortgage their paid off homes. So even if they spend every dollar they have in the bank and retirement accounts you are still looking at close to $20 Trillion in home equity (according to google). Auctionjmm is a logical thinker, and his take is absolutely correct. And once again, actual information, reasons, and specifics are being given to show the sky has not fallen.

Lets take a glance on the other side:

BUT, BUT, BUT!!!!! Bois can't degen like this forever!!!! Fanatic's sucks and this market has already collapsed!!!! The last few years of records were never actually set and broken!!!!! You bois need to heed my warnings, I truly care about your financial future!

I think a level headed toddler could pick the right side here.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have just now entered the greatest transfer of wealth in history and it will make the pandemic stimulus look like a dirty penny on the sidewalk. 124 trillion dollars will be inherited by 2048, and the largest chunk of that money will be going to millennials. There are undoubtedly philosophical differences in how each generation views money. I suspect many of the boomers who are leaving this money behind were rather conservative. They started accumulating wealth long before speculative investing became trendy and many simply stayed the course and decided not to take big risks. Now they are about to hand all of that money to a younger generation that isn't shy about speculative investments. What do you suppose they will do with it?

Obviously this money is coming from somewhere so there could very well be volatility from market to market. For example, if millennials are more likely to sell their parents' homes and invest that money in crypto, you could see a downturn in the housing market as inventory increases and that money moves away from real estate, while simultaneously seeing another crypto pump. If millennials instead choose to move into their parents' homes, perhaps the rental market declines as people ditch their rentals and settle into the homes their parents have already paid off. You could see bonds cashed out and put into stocks, or stocks cashed out and put into crypto, or, since this is a sports card forum, more cash now going into cards.

Either way, a whole lot of money is about to be handed to a whole lot of "bois" and that is good enough reason for me to be a permabull. Perhaps they all crap out by 2055 and the bears finally ravage the world, but I'm thinking this window of "hot" markets is far from closing.

While I don’t disagree with your conclusion, I think you’re overlooking the impact that an increasing life expectancy is going to have on this wealth transfer. Average US life expectancy is now a record 79 years. The top decile of net worth at age 50 has a life expectancy of 88 years! Living longer = spending more. Especially during that last decade of life where the need for very expensive assisted living is very real.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have just now entered the greatest transfer of wealth in history and it will make the pandemic stimulus look like a dirty penny on the sidewalk. 124 trillion dollars will be inherited by 2048, and the largest chunk of that money will be going to millennials. There are undoubtedly philosophical differences in how each generation views money. I suspect many of the boomers who are leaving this money behind were rather conservative. They started accumulating wealth long before speculative investing became trendy and many simply stayed the course and decided not to take big risks. Now they are about to hand all of that money to a younger generation that isn't shy about speculative investments. What do you suppose they will do with it?

Obviously this money is coming from somewhere so there could very well be volatility from market to market. For example, if millennials are more likely to sell their parents' homes and invest that money in crypto, you could see a downturn in the housing market as inventory increases and that money moves away from real estate, while simultaneously seeing another crypto pump. If millennials instead choose to move into their parents' homes, perhaps the rental market declines as people ditch their rentals and settle into the homes their parents have already paid off. You could see bonds cashed out and put into stocks, or stocks cashed out and put into crypto, or, since this is a sports card forum, more cash now going into cards.

Either way, a whole lot of money is about to be handed to a whole lot of "bois" and that is good enough reason for me to be a permabull. Perhaps they all crap out by 2055 and the bears finally ravage the world, but I'm thinking this window of "hot" markets is far from closing.

One problem being overlooked with real estate is many Boomers have homes that are too large with big yards. Most Gen Xer's and Millennials have smaller families and don't want the hassle of a big house. People aren't getting married anymore and they aren't having kids - that's gonna catch up with all of us eventually. Add to all of this affordability - the K economy we've been in for the past year plus shows that there are only a select few (maybe 15-20%ish of the entire population) who are truly doing well with finances. I don't see how real estate doesn't collapse simply because there are not enough out there who can afford to buy - it's just too expensive to own now with sky high property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. I personally sold my house I had owned for 25 years last year - and I'm so glad I did. My property taxes alone have almost tripled what they were last year if I had stayed.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

While I don’t disagree with your conclusion, I think you’re overlooking the impact that an increasing life expectancy is going to have on this wealth transfer. Average US life expectancy is now a record 79 years. The top decile of net worth at age 50 has a life expectancy of 88 years! Living longer = spending more. Especially during that last decade of life where the need for very expensive assisted living is very real.

Khal gets it -- the assisted living and healthcare industries are going to milk the hell out of boomer retirees. They will try to get every last drop. The sharp increases in the cost of living will make it expensive to retire.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by jkampis

So, any card shows this weekend?

This thread has gone so far off the rails I feel like we need to reboot it and start fresh again.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Khal gets it -- the assisted living and healthcare industries are going to milk the hell out of boomer retirees. They will try to get every last drop. The sharp increases in the cost of living will make it expensive to retire.

Approximately 2% of seniors reside in assisted living. While yes, it can and does wipe out some nest eggs, your point is being vastly overstated.

The average stay for a senior in assisted living is 22 months. The average monthly cost is around $5k a month. So all in, on average, you might be looking at slightly over $100,000. A lot of this is covered by different type of medical insurance and government programs too. But lets say $100k cash "out of pocket". That still barely puts a dent into the overall amount of wealth that was mentioned being transfered as the boomers move on. They own homes and businesses.

All states vary, but most states also won't touch a home if a spouse is still living. Those costs, if all other money is gone, gets absorbed by the state. So the home value is still there.

If you applied these numbers to every single living boomer, there would still be immense wealth pushed down to the next generation. My parents have never had much money, but they have a paid for house that will eventually go to myself and my siblings. They have owned the same piece of property since the 70's. It won't make me rich, but its enough to move the needle.

I don't understand why the handful here want to argue so much against reality. Every economic talking head in the country knows and has discussed the "greatest wealth transfer in history" but yet some here claim this and that will prevent it from happening. That isn't having an opinion. That is refusing to accept reality.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Approximately 2% of seniors reside in assisted living. While yes, it can and does wipe out some nest eggs, your point is being vastly overstated.

The average stay for a senior in assisted living is 22 months. The average monthly cost is around $5k a month. So all in, on average, you might be looking at slightly over $100,000. A lot of this is covered by different type of medical insurance and government programs too. But lets say $100k cash "out of pocket". That still barely puts a dent into the overall amount of wealth that was mentioned being transfered as the boomers move on. They own homes and businesses.

All states vary, but most states also won't touch a home if a spouse is still living. Those costs, if all other money is gone, gets absorbed by the state. So the home value is still there.

If you applied these numbers to every single living boomer, there would still be immense wealth pushed down to the next generation. My parents have never had much money, but they have a paid for house that will eventually go to myself and my siblings. They have owned the same piece of property since the 70's. It won't make me rich, but its enough to move the needle.

I don't understand why the handful here want to argue so much against reality. Every economic talking head in the country knows and has discussed the "greatest wealth transfer in history" but yet some here claim this and that will prevent it from happening. That isn't having an opinion. That is refusing to accept reality.

Boomers are living longer than any previous generation, experiencing way more healthcare costs as a result, and retiring in the midst of a sharp increase in the cost of living. The wealth transfer has been exaggerated. Boomers will need their children to help them in retirement -- it wont be a simple transition.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This thread has gone so far off the rails I feel like we need to reboot it and start fresh again.

There is a nice show out in New Jersey today and tomorrow that is run by my friend Rob. That's a really good show.

Hartville, OH and Strongsville, OH are Saturday and Sunday. Two very good shows for NE Ohio.

[imbluestreak23]

Medicare will only cover assisted living after the resident has been depleted of all assets

You think you’re gonna inherit that big fancy house? Sorry, going to Uncle Sam. Thats just how it works

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Medicare will only cover assisted living after the resident has been depleted of all assets

You think you’re gonna inherit that big fancy house? Sorry, going to Uncle Sam. Thats just how it works

Corporate America and the government will get theirs. They see wealth and they see an opportunity.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This thread has gone so far off the rails I feel like we need to reboot it and start fresh again.

This is a fairly regular occurrence.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Boomers are living longer than any previous generation, experiencing way more healthcare costs as a result, and retiring in the midst of a sharp increase in the cost of living. The wealth transfer has been exaggerated. Boomers will need their children to help them in retirement -- it wont be a simple transition.

Understood. The entirety of all US economic experts have got it wrong.

I'm pretty sure they know people are living longer now. Maybe they just forgot to factor that in. Its a good thing you are here to set the record straight.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Boomers are living longer than any previous generation, experiencing way more healthcare costs as a result, and retiring in the midst of a sharp increase in the cost of living. The wealth transfer has been exaggerated. Boomers will need their children to help them in retirement -- it wont be a simple transition.

Originally Posted by premium1981

Approximately 2% of seniors reside in assisted living. While yes, it can and does wipe out some nest eggs, your point is being vastly overstated.

The average stay for a senior in assisted living is 22 months. The average monthly cost is around $5k a month. So all in, on average, you might be looking at slightly over $100,000. A lot of this is covered by different type of medical insurance and government programs too. But lets say $100k cash "out of pocket". That still barely puts a dent into the overall amount of wealth that was mentioned being transfered as the boomers move on. They own homes and businesses.

All states vary, but most states also won't touch a home if a spouse is still living. Those costs, if all other money is gone, gets absorbed by the state. So the home value is still there.

If you applied these numbers to every single living boomer, there would still be immense wealth pushed down to the next generation. My parents have never had much money, but they have a paid for house that will eventually go to myself and my siblings. They have owned the same piece of property since the 70's. It won't make me rich, but its enough to move the needle.

I don't understand why the handful here want to argue so much against reality. Every economic talking head in the country knows and has discussed the "greatest wealth transfer in history" but yet some here claim this and that will prevent it from happening. That isn't having an opinion. That is refusing to accept reality.

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

While I don’t disagree with your conclusion, I think you’re overlooking the impact that an increasing life expectancy is going to have on this wealth transfer. Average US life expectancy is now a record 79 years. The top decile of net worth at age 50 has a life expectancy of 88 years! Living longer = spending more. Especially during that last decade of life where the need for very expensive assisted living is very real.

I think there have been actually a lot of great points and they could all be right depending on various (individual) factors. Like my parents situation, mom never worked, dad retired in his 40s, still worth millions, gives to his kids/grandkids now as well as will after they pass. They have always been savers and want to pass it on to us.

My in-laws, still working class, never had much, but as soon as they get a nickel, they spend a dime. I can see them asking for financial help from their kids, some of which they helped and others they never lifted a finger. Their goal is to spend it all before they pass.

Two different mentalities and around the same age range too. Some things need to be factored in are adults (now) without kids. I have 3 total aunts/uncles who never had kids. I know one plans on leaving some to us nieces/nephews but not sure about the other two. That is another part of the younger generation getting wealth.

As for real estate, if the house is worth it then it will retain value, but if it is a place no one wants (which I can see about 75%+ being), then the housing prices could lower a lot in many areas.

[fabiani12333]

Repeat post

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Understood. The entirety of all US economic experts have got it wrong.

I'm pretty sure they know people are living longer now. Maybe they just forgot to factor that in. Its a good thing you are here to set the record straight.

The Great Wealth Transfer

Still, the long-anticipated “great wealth transfer” may not deliver what many expect or hope for. “A large portion of Boomer wealth is likely to be consumed by healthcare and caregiving costs,” Spiegelman said. The cost of long illnesses and care, taxes, and rules requiring inherited retirement accounts to be withdrawn within 10 years mean that “net inheritance shrinks quickly. Many families will be surprised by how little remains.”

As a result, he believes the idea that this transfer will dramatically reduce inequality is a tad overstated. “While large sums will move, much of it will be absorbed,” he said. For many families, what remains may be far less than anticipated.

"Some extremes will exist, but for most families, this won’t create sudden wealth or dramatically widen divides. Instead, it’s more likely to expose how much of the system consumes wealth before it ever reaches the next generation."

https://www.newsweek.com/boomers-at-...-come-11399120

America is filled with propaganda.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by solt0131

There is a nice show out in New Jersey today and tomorrow that is run by my friend Rob. That's a really good show.

Hartville, OH and Strongsville, OH are Saturday and Sunday. Two very good shows for NE Ohio.

I applaud your effort.

Didn’t work, but a noble effort nonetheless.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This thread has gone so far off the rails I feel like we need to reboot it and start fresh again.

Boomers need assisted living and Medicare, and Gen X doesn’t want big houses… so card stonks go down?

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

https://www.newsweek.com/boomers-at-...-come-11399120

America is filled with propaganda.

You can find articles on the internet about anything. Now go do the same search and pull the opposing viewpoint that almost everyone in that field shares.

“While large sums will move, much of it will be absorbed”

From your own article. Even the article stating it will be weaker also states that large sums of wealth will still be passed down. When even the naysayers are saying it will happen, I'd say it will likely happen. The number of trillions will just vary depending on who you are talking to.