Top 5 current baseball players to collect/invest

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I do think it's pretty funny the way some are trying to describe Vlad's current price. Some want to act like he's never been any good and others want to act like his on field play has nothing to do with it.

Seriously. Make a list, find the guys similar in price, age, and production to Vlad and it becomes plainly obvious that he's not really overpriced. Or underpriced. The only question becomes how much to you want to gamble on him being the guy who busts out at age 27 or 28 or 29 or 30 or 31?

Isn't it more like he already busted out at age 22 and everybody is waiting for him to get back to that age 22 season?

[GabrielCards]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

Wha?!! Most of his RC have doubled or more since Sept 30 - Continued to go up even after the World Series win. There has been no dip. Maybe a few unaware sellers?

Ohtani cards had a big spike after what some consider to be the "greatest game ever played" in October. Then - since the WS concluded - his values have come down. Examples: The 2018 Bowman Chrome Ref PSA 10 was sellng at $25K in November. Now it's back down to 18-19K. The 2018 Topps Pitching Gold PSA 10 sold for $6.5K in November. Now it's been selling at 4K to 5K.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

Ohtani cards had a big spike after what some consider to be the "greatest game ever played" in October. Then - since the WS concluded - his values have come down. Examples: The 2018 Bowman Chrome Ref PSA 10 was sellng at $25K in November. Now it's back down to 18-19K. The 2018 Topps Pitching Gold PSA 10 sold for $6.5K in November. Now it's been selling at 4K to 5K.

However low end 2018 RC and insert cards have gone up in value since the off season...some have even nearly doubled in price. So the floor has been raised while other mid to high end cards have come down in price.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by GabrielCards

Ohtani cards had a big spike after what some consider to be the "greatest game ever played" in October. Then - since the WS concluded - his values have come down. Examples: The 2018 Bowman Chrome Ref PSA 10 was sellng at $25K in November. Now it's back down to 18-19K. The 2018 Topps Pitching Gold PSA 10 sold for $6.5K in November. Now it's been selling at 4K to 5K.

I'm just tracking 2018 Base RC Sales - PSA 10s of a 499 print run is a little volatile and yeah to sell that in December is dumb. At least wait til the WBC hype gets rolling.
| Phase ************ | PSA 10 | PSA 9 | Raw |
|Pre-Playoffs (Jul–Sep) | $207.7 | $71.9 | $38.6 |
|Late Season (Oct) *** | $273.0 | $81.9 | $55.2 |
|Post-WS (Nov–Dec) ** | $398.0 | $98.8 | $77.8 |

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I'm just tracking 2018 Base RC Sales - PSA 10s of a 499 print run is a little volatile and yeah to sell that in December is dumb. At least wait til the WBC hype gets rolling.
| Phase ************ | PSA 10 | PSA 9 | Raw |
|Pre-Playoffs (Jul–Sep) | $207.7 | $71.9 | $38.6 |
|Late Season (Oct) *** | $273.0 | $81.9 | $55.2 |
|Post-WS (Nov–Dec) ** | $398.0 | $98.8 | $77.8 |

Is this just for 2018 #700?

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Is this just for 2018 #700?

Exactly.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

However low end 2018 RC and insert cards have gone up in value since the off season...some have even nearly doubled in price. So the floor has been raised while other mid to high end cards have come down in price.

This isn't true. Every base gem has fallen since the peak. However, we have a significantly higher floor from where they were in mid October.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Tim

This isn't true. Every base gem has fallen since the peak. However, we have a significantly higher floor from where they were in mid October.

This is 100% true for raw and PSA9!

[Above the Rim]

Not necessarily the true top 5, but my PC top 5:

Skubal
Skenes
Andrew Abbott
Roman Anthony
Ohtani

[seanrs1]

For those who have been collecting since like 2000 or so (the era of bowman 1sts, autos, gu)...what players have actually gone up in value and maintained value long term?

Not players that you bought low and sold high!

Off the top of my head I would think the list would include
Ichiro
Pujols
Trout
Cabrera
Verlander
Schrzer
Kershaw

Edits missed
Freddie Freemon
Bryce Harper
Jose Altuve
Manny Machado
Mookie Betts
Francisco Lindor
Jose Ramirez

Who else am I missing?

And no I am not wanting to hear about all the people that bought pre covid and sold peak covid.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

For those who have been collecting since like 2000 or so (the era of bowman 1sts, autos, gu)...what players have actually gone up in value and maintained value long term?

Not players that you bought low and sold high!

Off the top of my head I would think the list would include
Ichiro
Pujols
Trout
Cabrera
Verlander
Schrzer
Kershaw

Who am I missing?

And no I am not wanting to hear about all the people that bought pre covid and sold peak covid.

Freddie Freeman for sure. Harper started pretty high but has gone up some and still has lots of value. Altuve's Bowman and RC situation is weird but during his rookie year something like a 2010 Bowman orange /25 was like a $20 card and it's a $4,000-$5,000 card now. Pretty much anyone that's going to make the HOF and debuted before like 2015 will be like this.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

For those who have been collecting since like 2000 or so (the era of bowman 1sts, autos, gu)...what players have actually gone up in value and maintained value long term?

Not players that you bought low and sold high!

Off the top of my head I would think the list would include
Ichiro
Pujols
Trout
Cabrera
Verlander
Schrzer
Kershaw

Edits missed
Freddie Freemon
Bryce Harper
Jose Altuve
Manny Machado
Mookie Betts

Who am I missing?

And no I am not wanting to hear about all the people that bought pre covid and sold peak covid.

Some names that have 2015 or earlier rookie and/or first BC auto:

Yadier Molina
Jose Ramirez
Francisco Lindor
Zack Greinke
Corey Seager
Joe Mauer
Kyle Schwarber

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

For those who have been collecting since like 2000 or so (the era of bowman 1sts, autos, gu)...what players have actually gone up in value and maintained value long term?

Not players that you bought low and sold high!

Off the top of my head I would think the list would include
Ichiro
Pujols
Trout
Cabrera
Verlander
Schrzer
Kershaw

Edits missed
Freddie Freemon
Bryce Harper
Jose Altuve
Manny Machado
Mookie Betts

Who am I missing?

And no I am not wanting to hear about all the people that bought pre covid and sold peak covid.

Most of those are down from where they once were and if they are up, they are up less than the overall market.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Most of those are down from where they once were and if they are up, they are up less than the overall market.

Players go up and down...thats ok. I am just thinking of players that have played for awhile and have a track record and long term value.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Tim

This isn't true. Every base gem has fallen since the peak. However, we have a significantly higher floor from where they were in mid October.

These are the actual eBay sales numbers for the PSA 10 of the 2018 #700 Ohtani RC - These are the average for only PSA 10 SOLD - The October sales are from Oct 17th -31st and I tried to remove the pregame sales - Ohtani was running 200-220 the week before and then sales went to $250 and up... I used those sales.

Month Avg Sold
Oct 2025 ~$348
Nov 2025 ~$395
Dec 2025 ~$400

Note the highest sale was $635 on Oct 27th and second highest was the same day at $495. This was the second Ohtani game 4-4 2 HR and 2B - looks like 22 cards were sold in a less than 48 hour window - the $635 probably sold right after he hit his 2cnd HR of the night - later 7 more sold for 399-400 within 24 hours.
Usually when I figure prices I trim the top 10% and the bottom 10% to reduce the noise - basically I'd say the high mark was a $400 card. You can BIN for $375 today, maybe a little better SO it is down 6% or more. But 10 weeks ago it was 200-220.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Isn't it more like he already busted out at age 22 and everybody is waiting for him to get back to that age 22 season?

Pretty much like Bryce Harper:

Harper:
2015 (age-22 season): 9.7 bWAR; 198 OPS+; 42 HR -- led the league in all
2016: 1.6 bWAR; 114 OPS+; 24 HR
2017: 4.7 bWAR; 156 OPS+; 29 HR
2018: 1.7 bWAR; 133 OPS+; 34 HR
2019 (age-26): 4.5 bWAR; 126 OPS+; 35 HR
Totals: 22.2 bWAR; 144 OPS+, 164 HR

Vlad Jr:
2021 (age-22): 6.5 bWAR; 167 OPS+ (led league); 48 HR (led league)
2022: 4.0 bWAR; 133 OPS+; 32 HR
2023: 1.8 bWAR; 116 OPS+; 26 HR
2024: 6.2 bWAR; 164 OPS+; 30 HR
2025 (age-26): 4.6 bWAR; 133 OPS+; 23 HR
Totals: 23.1 bWAR; 143 OPS+; 159 HR

Huh -- would you look at that.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Isn't it more like he already busted out at age 22 and everybody is waiting for him to get back to that age 22 season?

He's down more than the market since then. I'm thinking it's more like he busted out in 2021, but has been shedding value slowly since then. If he were 50-75% more (which he might be, my price is from before the playoffs), then he'd be on the avoid list.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

For those who have been collecting since like 2000 or so (the era of bowman 1sts, autos, gu)...what players have actually gone up in value and maintained value long term?

Not players that you bought low and sold high!

Off the top of my head I would think the list would include
Ichiro
Pujols
Trout
Cabrera
Verlander
Schrzer
Kershaw

Edits missed
Freddie Freemon
Bryce Harper
Jose Altuve
Manny Machado
Mookie Betts
Francisco Lindor
Jose Ramirez

Who else am I missing?

And no I am not wanting to hear about all the people that bought pre covid and sold peak covid.

Judge, Soto, Vladito, Gunnar, Tatis, Corbin Carroll, Alonso, Yelich. None of these guys are ever going to fall back to their early career prices. Basically anybody who had their prospect card in 2018 or earlier and became a star.

Judge was like $50 heading into 2017 when the big guys were Benintendi, Swanson, and my #1, Moncada.

Soto was $70 and my #3 target going into 2018 in a year where I invested in two guys.

Vlad was $70 the year before I put him in my Price Index. People were complaining about the high buy in saying he could never live up to that price!

I remember when Tatis was $20, there were instances of him selling for $8 over the previous 90 days.

Gunnar and Carroll were afterthoughts in early 2020. So much so that I tracked guys as low as $30 and neither of them made the list!

Alonso was dirt cheap ($20-$30) until he blew up in the AFL and even that only raised his price to ~$50.

Yelich danm near hit $1000 at his peak, but that came from a baseline of $20. I remember when he got to $40 everybody thought he was overpriced because he didn't have enough power and could never win an MVP. Pretty much same as Mookie, but he didn't sustain it while Mookie is still $1000.

Acuna is up like 2.5x from when he was the #1 overall prospect, which was pertty much at release. He's up over a long period but still within range of falling behind. Similar story for J-Rod.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Judge, Soto, Vladito, Gunnar, Tatis, Corbin Carroll, Alonso, Yelich. None of these guys are ever going to fall back to their early career prices. Basically anybody who had their prospect card in 2018 or earlier and became a star.

This is really the best way to think about it, yeah. Essentially any great player from before the boom.