Top 5 current baseball players to collect/invest

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

There are are points here (1) If you were forced to buy a card of a player and hold it for exactly 10 years then yes Ohtani will likely outperform any other active players (id prob take rare mantle over ohtani for 10 years).

(2) if you said here is $1,000 or 10,000 to spend on cards right now, turn that into as much money as possible in 10 years there is a 0% chance you would park your money into Ohtani. you would just flip guys for next 10 years and massively outperform Othani market

(3) If you said here is 1 million dollars and you are forced to spend it on baseball cards and hold those for 10 years, then yes a lot of that money would go into Ohtani.

Tbh, I actually don't agree that Ohtani will outperform any other active players. We're talking him going from age 31 to retirement; he's already peaked out. The issue is that it's hard to know which of the active players is going to be the generational guy AFTER Judge and Ohtani. BWJ is the most obvious possibility, but more likely we've got a 1st to 3rd year type that's going to erupt out of no where. Maybe Kurtz is the next Albert Pujols. Just impossible to say.

Ohtani is a much safer bet to not have the rear end fall out of his market, that part is 100% true. His status as a unique legend has been cemented already.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Also, what about the scenario where he does start his eventual decline, but it turns out the decline is a lot slower than most people expected? Like say 37 year old Ohtani still manages to put up a .260/.350/.525 triple slash with 37 HR, and makes 25 starts and posts a 3.80 ERA with 200 K's. You could make the argument that despite declining stats, his market could still increase because his decline is not as severe as most people expect.

Only three pitchers age 37-or-older started 25 games last season -- Jacob deGrom (30 GS), Justin Verlander (29 GS), and Charlie Morton (27 GS). Ohtani has only done it once in his MLB career -- 28 starts in 2022.

The highest home run total for a player age 37-or-older last season was 13 by Andrew McCutchen.

Only two players hit 37-or-more home runs in a single season over the last ten seasons (2016-2025) -- Nelson Cruz twice (2018 and 2019) and David Ortiz once (2016). Both players got busted using PEDs, coincidently. No player did it over the last five seasons.

[ThoseBackPages]

imagine comparing Ohtani to these players that
were poisoned by american culture and food

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This is for entertainment value only, but this is what Google Gemini predicts Ohtani's final MLB stats will be assuming 8 more years of play:

HR: 520
Hits: 2,200
RBI: 1,370
SB: 250
Pitching W's: 100
Pitcing K's: 1,570

If he can get to 500HR/100 wins, he's be the founding member (and likely only member ever) of that club. Ruth had 94 wins as a pitcher, so clearing Ruth in that regard would make his GOAT case even stronger.

No one cares about wins unless it's 300.

500 home runs will be noteworthy, but there are guys like Jim Thome who have way more.

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Only three pitchers age 37-or-older started 25 games last season -- Jacob deGrom (30 GS), Justin Verlander (29 GS), and Charlie Morton (27 GS). Ohtani has only done it once in his MLB career -- 28 starts in 2022.

The highest home run total for a player age 37-or-older last season was 13 by Andrew McCutchen.

Only two players hit 37-or-more home runs in a single season over the last ten seasons (2016-2025) -- Nelson Cruz twice (2018 and 2019) and David Ortiz once (2016). Both players got busted using PEDs, coincidently. No player did it over the last five seasons.

Is 37 the new 6-7?

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Also, I'm really curious how long Ohtani remains a full-time SP. I gotta think it is completely possible he transitions to primarily a reliever in his last few years, to ease the burden on his aging body as a 2-way player. If he reverts into a John Smoltz his last few years pitching, would that actually help his hobby value compared to staying a SP? Becoming a lockdown closer vs a fading SP?

I think he stops pitching altogether and becomes an exclusive DH (part-time left-fielder, perhaps). Even pitching in relief risks him blowing out his arm again. His body won't hold up long-term if he continues to take the two-way approach.

If the Dodgers let him blown out his arm again, they get what they deserve.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

imagine comparing Ohtani to these players that
were poisoned by american culture and food

how do you think aaron judge got so large and good at hitting baseballs?

mcdoubles

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by kipgen

how do you think aaron judge got so large and good at hitting baseballs?

mcdoubles

NICE!

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So at what point do you think Ohtani is going to under perform the market? Starting this year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?

What player(s) do you think will have a higher ROI going forward/long term?

Do I think you can flip cards and make money year to year...yes! I just have a hard time believing you can pick current players that will have a better ROI long term than Ohtani.

Ohtani has 8 more years on his contract. So I guess we should be able to settle this argument in like 10 years. I will take Ohtani. Which player(s) will you be picking?

First, I could simply diversify and match the market damn near perfectlly. So comparing Ohtani to the market is perfectly acceptable. In fact it's the best way, because if the market beats Ohtani, then throwning a dart is a better investment.

Second, I could just jump on Bonds or Ripken or Jeter or Mays or Aaron or Mantle. They are probably going to flow with the market, which should beat Ohtani over the long run. Heck, maybe even Trout! He's through the worst of his decline and only has milestones and retirement to look forward to. On that note deGrom/Scherzer/Verlander in the next ten years are going to get boosts from retirement and HOF induction. Maybe deGrom still has some decline to work through, but he's also the only of those three that could win the CYA next year. Mookie is going to get his 5th ring to match Jeter when/if Ohtani gets his 3rd. If you wanted me to pick one guy who might be the guy to violently overproduce his on field production in retirement, that would be my pick.

As for when Ohtani hits his decline, who knows? What I do know is the bar is now .300/55/120/XX with an OPS+ around 180 and ace level pitching and a ring. Hit that and he's not gaining much. Only go .280/45/90/XX with an OPS+ of 150 and he's losing ground. Then when he hits the hard decline, he gets crushed.

If I had to pick a group of young/prime, active players, here's where I'd start;

1) Yordan Alvarez
2) Junior Caminero

I'd want to see where Tucker signs before I add him to the list, but likely him too. Just might need to get through a downward team adjustment. And I'd take <redacted> as well. Can't spill his name yet because I'm still buying like crazy. He'll be near the top of my list in March though.

Where the real gains are to be had though are in the mid and low level guys. The guys in dark green on my spreadsheet. It's a mix of low minors, upper minors, young, and prime MLB stars. Over 30 need not apply. Even if I had to hold for 10 years I could put together a group that would crush Ohtani (ie beat the market slightly). What I'd have to do is diversify a little more to make sure my list doesn't fizzle out. Note, even in this scenario I don't get a single player the level of Ohtnai or Judge or even Betts (a guy I was on after he won a WS and an MVP and thought was still underpriced). The reason being is picking low level guys turning into mid level guys is both easier and a higher ROI than trying to pick top level guys that turn into outliers...even though when you actually get the outlier you get the biggest ROI of all.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This is for entertainment value only, but this is what Google Gemini predicts Ohtani's final MLB stats will be assuming 8 more years of play:

HR: 520
Hits: 2,200
RBI: 1,370
SB: 250
Pitching W's: 100
Pitcing K's: 1,570

If he can get to 500HR/100 wins, he's be the founding member (and likely only member ever) of that club. Ruth had 94 wins as a pitcher, so clearing Ruth in that regard would make his GOAT case even stronger.

If he only hits those numbers, he will get crushed.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Sure that's true, but then we're talking about what is the likelihood of your guessing right over the next ten years to the point where you outperform Ohtani's market versus simply holding Ohtani?

If you're allowed to sell? 100%.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Won't lie, the truly high end cards I've been buying for the last few months have mostly been Gunnar.

Atta boy!

Originally Posted by kipgen

My issue with Gunnar is, as we saw with Corbin Carroll this year, bounceback seasons don't necessarily lead to price appreciation

It takes like major, MVP contention level play to do that

I agree, but there is a second thing that can drive the price up. Do it two years in a row.

Another thing that is going to help Carroll is the triples thing. He might lead the league 10 years in a row if he stays healthy. The list is short of guys who have done it three years in a row (where he already is). The list of guys who have done it four years in a row is Lance Johnson.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

Just curious if you tracked Crochet over the same period?

I don't have Crochet from two years ago. He's up 4-5x over the last year, but some of that is changing the color of his Sox.

[quackhead]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Just want to point out this is merely market conditions. A ton of guys are down that much;

Trout, down 85%
Soto, down 55%
Acuna, down 75%
Vlad Jr., down 80%
Tatis, down 85%
Mookie, down 50%
LouBob, who even knows, probably >95%
Heck, Bobby Witt, who has been one of the biggest risers of all during that time, is only up 25%.
Harper is up 30%.
J-Rod is down 20%. I repeat. J-Rod is down 20%.
Lindor, down 40%.
Bo Bichette, down 85%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, ROTFL
Gleyebr, down >95%

Here's the instructive one. Marco Luciano, who was merely a young, top 20 prospect (although more like top 50 in my book!), was over $400. I might liken him to Luis Pena....who is $150.

Great time to buy Tatis

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Another thing that is going to help Carroll is the triples thing. He might lead the league 10 years in a row if he stays healthy. The list is short of guys who have done it three years in a row (where he already is). The list of guys who have done it four years in a row is Lance Johnson.

Triples, we're excited about triples?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Triples, we're excited about triples?

This thread is making people say some wild things. But yeah, any time you have a chance to invest in a player who could do something only Lance Johnson has done, you gotta load up on their cards!

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

First, I could simply diversify and match the market damn near perfectlly. So comparing Ohtani to the market is perfectly acceptable. In fact it's the best way, because if the market beats Ohtani, then throwning a dart is a better investment.

Second, I could just jump on Bonds or Ripken or Jeter or Mays or Aaron or Mantle. They are probably going to flow with the market, which should beat Ohtani over the long run. Heck, maybe even Trout! He's through the worst of his decline and only has milestones and retirement to look forward to. On that note deGrom/Scherzer/Verlander in the next ten years are going to get boosts from retirement and HOF induction. Maybe deGrom still has some decline to work through, but he's also the only of those three that could win the CYA next year. Mookie is going to get his 5th ring to match Jeter when/if Ohtani gets his 3rd. If you wanted me to pick one guy who might be the guy to violently overproduce his on field production in retirement, that would be my pick.

As for when Ohtani hits his decline, who knows? What I do know is the bar is now .300/55/120/XX with an OPS+ around 180 and ace level pitching and a ring. Hit that and he's not gaining much. Only go .280/45/90/XX with an OPS+ of 150 and he's losing ground. Then when he hits the hard decline, he gets crushed.

If I had to pick a group of young/prime, active players, here's where I'd start;

1) Yordan Alvarez
2) Junior Caminero

I'd want to see where Tucker signs before I add him to the list, but likely him too. Just might need to get through a downward team adjustment. And I'd take <redacted> as well. Can't spill his name yet because I'm still buying like crazy. He'll be near the top of my list in March though.

Where the real gains are to be had though are in the mid and low level guys. The guys in dark green on my spreadsheet. It's a mix of low minors, upper minors, young, and prime MLB stars. Over 30 need not apply. Even if I had to hold for 10 years I could put together a group that would crush Ohtani (ie beat the market slightly). What I'd have to do is diversify a little more to make sure my list doesn't fizzle out. Note, even in this scenario I don't get a single player the level of Ohtnai or Judge or even Betts (a guy I was on after he won a WS and an MVP and thought was still underpriced). The reason being is picking low level guys turning into mid level guys is both easier and a higher ROI than trying to pick top level guys that turn into outliers...even though when you actually get the outlier you get the biggest ROI of all.

I am very confident that you make money buying and flipping cards and I am happy for you.

So going back to the OP's question. Which 5 current players are you picking to buy and hold (not to flip, rinse and repeat) that are going to have the best ROI long term?

I said I am only confident in Ohtani and Judge of current players long term due to demand.

[ObanMontecristo]

Vintage is always the safest investment, as current players’ card values are dependent on performance (and health), which is impossible to predict. But I’d say look for younger guys who haven’t reached their prime yet, but reached the majors at age 20-22, have established themselves as stars at the major league level, and have a good chance to become an elite player and eventually hit some big milestones.

IMO, Vlad Jr. and Jackson Chourio aren’t too expensive and can provide a lot of ROI. I also like BWJ and Elly, although their cards aren’t as cheap so the ROI might not be as great.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If he only hits those numbers, he will get crushed.

This was assuming he doesn't play past the 2033 season/age 38. I could totally see him playing another 2-3 years as primarily a DH with reduced pitching appearances.

Just curious, what do you think he needs to hit for career milestones for him not to get "crushed"? 600 HR? 150 wins? 2,000 K's? Or say he switches to a closer in the late years, would say 550 HR/100 wins/100 saves be impressive enough? Along with 6-7 total MVPs.

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

This thread is making people say some wild things. But yeah, any time you have a chance to invest in a player who could do something only Lance Johnson has done, you gotta load up on their cards!

Indeed. Exceeding some of Babe Ruth’s achievements and matching or setting a record for MVPs in the process… that dude’s prices are getting crushed.

But the guy with a chance to match Lance Johnson in accomplishments related to triples… now we’re talking. Haha.

The Price Index guy usually has some good points though. I think he’s trying to explain the concept of ROI from penny stocks instead of just saying “it’s like penny stocks.”

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If he only hits those numbers, he will get crushed.

If Ohtani hits these career numbers plus has 4 MVPs and 2 WS rings he is not getting crushed price wise from his current prices. In fact if he hits those he will be a hobby legend and his prices will only go up!

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Indeed. Exceeding some of Babe Ruth’s achievements and matching or setting a record for MVPs in the process… that dude’s prices are getting crushed.

But the guy with a chance to match Lance Johnson in accomplishments related to triples… now we’re talking. Haha.

The Price Index guy usually has some good points though. I think he’s trying to explain the concept of ROI from penny stocks instead of just saying “it’s like penny stocks.”

I think if someone is treating Ohtani just like every other player and purely only looking at the numbers, they are missing the boat completely.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Indeed. Exceeding some of Babe Ruth’s achievements and matching or setting a record for MVPs in the process… that dude’s prices are getting crushed.

But the guy with a chance to match Lance Johnson in accomplishments related to triples… now we’re talking. Haha.

The Price Index guy usually has some good points though. I think he’s trying to explain the concept of ROI from penny stocks instead of just saying “it’s like penny stocks.”

I’m a big fan of what RWPeru does here on these forums. He shares a lot of valuable info for free! But saying that Ohtani’s prices will crash hard if he only puts up low-end historic numbers while getting 4+ MVPs, 2+ WSs, all while getting a late start… and saying Carroll’s prices could rise if he leads the league in triples for four seasons is an odd combo. I’m assuming the basis of his argument is grounded in each player’s current price point.

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

I think if someone is treating Ohtani just like every other player and purely only looking at the numbers, they are missing the boat completely.

Yup. Exactly. He’s transcended just being a baseball player at this point.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I’m a big fan of what RWPeru does here on these forums. He shares a lot of valuable info for free! But saying that Ohtani’s prices will crash hard if he only puts up low-end historic numbers while getting 4+ MVPs, 2+ WSs, all while getting a late start… and saying Carroll’s prices could rise if he leads the league in triples for four seasons is an odd combo. I’m assuming the basis of his argument is grounded in each player’s current price point.



Yup. Exactly. He’s transcended just being a baseball player at this point.

I'm telling you (not you specifically), when the pure vintage guys start stocking some Ohtani's in their display cases, you know a shift of some kind has happened.

[SaveMeTheGum]

How cute. A pitcher AND a catcher on the list...