Top 5 current baseball players to collect/invest

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So at what point do you think Ohtani is going to under perform the market? Starting this year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?

What player(s) do you think will have a higher ROI going forward/long term?

Do I think you can flip cards and make money year to year...yes! I just have a hard time believing you can pick current players that will have a better ROI long term than Ohtani.

Ohtani has 8 more years on his contract. So I guess we should be able to settle this argument in like 10 years. I will take Ohtani. Which player(s) will you be picking?

He gives us regular updates on his index and performance. There is nothing stopping you from defining an Ohtani index and creating a "Sean's Ohtani Index" thread on Jan. 1st. No need to wait ten years.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Not really. I mean Skubal and Skenes are showing us the way. These two are where the point really gets driven home. Skubal is up 12x from this time two years ago. Skenes is only up 3x (once you get out of the release window).

Skenes is/was more expensive, but Skubal is/was a better bet for ROI.

Just curious if you tracked Crochet over the same period?

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I rarely buy 1st Bowmans these days, but did snag his #/499 for $60 before his hype train really took off.

I'm fine paying ~$100 for one, but there's literally only one listed for $250 right now. It's strange how few listings there are.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

He gives us regular updates on his index and performance. There is nothing stopping you from defining an Ohtani index and creating a "Sean's Ohtani Index" thread on Jan. 1st. No need to wait ten years.

rwperu34 has one of the best yearly threads on here! I read every single one. I think they add insight into the market/hobby. I also admire his hustle as I believe he buys and sells cards for a living. Basically he compares prices of BCA 1sts prices of players he tracks and then buys players he thinks are under priced or will out perform going forward. Most of these players are in the minor leagues or are young players in MLB. None of these players are long term buys and holds. Its all about making money in the short term. My point is I don't think he can pick a current player that he tracks that will out perform the ROI of Ohtani long term. That is my only point. Can he make a lot of money doing what he does. Of course.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

rwperu34 has one of the best yearly threads on here! I read every single one. I think they add insight into the market/hobby. I also admire his hustle as I believe he buys and sells cards for a living. Basically he compares prices of BCA 1sts prices of players he tracks and then buys players he thinks are under priced or will out perform going forward. Most of these players are in the minor leagues or are young players in MLB. None of these players are long term buys and holds. Its all about making money in the short term. My point is I don't think he can pick a current player that he tracks that will out perform the ROI of Ohtani long term. That is my only point. Can he make a lot of money doing what he does. Of course.

And his point was that you can pick just about any star who isn't overpriced right now and they will outperfom Ohtani's cards. Because the market will increase across the board. And his claim is that Ohtani, based on current prices relative to the market, is likely to increase less than the overall market. I think you are conflating that Ohtani will reach loftier heights as a player over that time, and have higher card prices, and assume that means higher performance relative to the market. You and rwperu are speaking different languages. Ohtani's cards are at the top of a peak in the market right now. The increase over the coming years will slow down dramatically naturally, regardless of what he does. That's just how markets work. We are in a place in the Ohtani market right now where there isn't much value in buying. As with any investment, if you look at the graph, there are points on the graph where there are buying opportunities and selling opportunities. Remove this from baseball. Just look at it in a general market sense. Because baseball is clouding your judgment. Markets are markets. They function the same way. When an asset reaches a high point in hype and production, and the price reflects that, it is a bad time to buy. Period. If we all agree that Ohtani's cards will go through a downturn in the next several years, what logical sense does it make to say he is the best investment today? He was a good investment previously, and he will be a good investment during that downturn, but no one with financial sense will say it's a good investment today.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

And his point was that you can pick just about any star who isn't overpriced right now and they will outperfom Ohtani's cards. Because the market will increase across the board. And his claim is that Ohtani, based on current prices relative to the market, is likely to increase less than the overall market. I think you are conflating that Ohtani will reach loftier heights as a player over that time, and have higher card prices, and assume that means higher performance relative to the market. You and rwperu are speaking different languages. Ohtani's cards are at the top of a peak in the market right now. The increase over the coming years will slow down dramatically naturally, regardless of what he does. That's just how markets work. We are in a place in the Ohtani market right now where there isn't much value in buying. As with any investment, if you look at the graph, there are points on the graph where there are buying opportunities and selling opportunities. Remove this from baseball. Just look at it in a general market sense. Because baseball is clouding your judgment. Markets are markets. They function the same way. When an asset reaches a high point in hype and production, and the price reflects that, it is a bad time to buy. Period. If we all agree that Ohtani's cards will go through a downturn in the next several years, what logical sense does it make to say he is the best investment today? He was a good investment previously, and he will be a good investment during that downturn, but no one with financial sense will say it's a good investment today.

I will let rwperu34 speak for himself! I get what you are saying too. You are saying if the entire baseball singles market goes up more than Ohtani prices go up those other players would have a better ROI.

But that is not what the OP mentioned.
"top current active players to buy and collect from an ROI standpoint"

This is not being compared to a theoretic market.

So maybe the OP should define ROI in the short term or long term.

When he mentions buy and collect I am taking that as long term. So maybe OP needs to add a specific time frame.

I will pick a random time frame of 10 years. The OP list seems more geared to that type of time frame, as well as others.

My list would only be #1 Ohtani and #2 Judge.

So who would rwperu34 or you pick to out perform Ohtani and Judge over the next 10 years (not against a theoretic market singles index).

My analogy....
I am not asking you to pick a stock to beat the S and P 500 over the next 10 years. I am asking you to tell me which stocks you think will perform best over the next 10 years.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

And his point was that you can pick just about any star who isn't overpriced right now and they will outperfom Ohtani's cards. Because the market will increase across the board. And his claim is that Ohtani, based on current prices relative to the market, is likely to increase less than the overall market. I think you are conflating that Ohtani will reach loftier heights as a player over that time, and have higher card prices, and assume that means higher performance relative to the market. You and rwperu are speaking different languages. Ohtani's cards are at the top of a peak in the market right now. The increase over the coming years will slow down dramatically naturally, regardless of what he does. That's just how markets work. We are in a place in the Ohtani market right now where there isn't much value in buying. As with any investment, if you look at the graph, there are points on the graph where there are buying opportunities and selling opportunities. Remove this from baseball. Just look at it in a general market sense. Because baseball is clouding your judgment. Markets are markets. They function the same way. When an asset reaches a high point in hype and production, and the price reflects that, it is a bad time to buy. Period. If we all agree that Ohtani's cards will go through a downturn in the next several years, what logical sense does it make to say he is the best investment today? He was a good investment previously, and he will be a good investment during that downturn, but no one with financial sense will say it's a good investment today.

Everything you just posted you could have also posted 1 year ago and it would have still mostly made sense. Yet, Ohtani's market soared despite coming off a historic 50/50 season /3rd MVP/WS title. Who thought his peak (at least for a while) was last November? One thing I've learned is not to underestimate Shotime.

Also, what about the scenario where he does start his eventual decline, but it turns out the decline is a lot slower than most people expected? Like say 37 year old Ohtani still manages to put up a .260/.350/.525 triple slash with 37 HR, and makes 25 starts and posts a 3.80 ERA with 200 K's. You could make the argument that despite declining stats, his market could still increase because his decline is not as severe as most people expect.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Everything you just posted you could have also posted 1 year ago and it would have still mostly made sense. Yet, Ohtani's market soared despite coming off a historic 50/50 season /3rd MVP/WS title. Who thought his peak (at least for a while) was last November? One thing I've learned is not to underestimate Shotime.

Also, what about the scenario where he does start his eventual decline, but it turns out the decline is a lot slower than most people expected? Like say 37 year old Ohtani still manages to put up a .260/.350/.525 triple slash with 37 HR, and makes 25 starts and posts a 3.80 ERA with 200 K's. You could make the argument that despite declining stats, his market could still increase because his decline is not as severe as most people expect.

Not underestimating is one of those things that works until it doesn't. It just feels like there's a lot of people that are thinking that his market has shot up so much that it means his market should keep doing the same thing. But we've seen so many times where that hasn't happened - everything to do with 2021, for instance.

What's the trigger for a bunch of people that aren't interested in buying Ohtani cards now to want to jump in at this time and price point? He could go pull a Randy Johnson/Yamamoto in next year's WS or something like that. But even with Dodgers being what they are, their odds of even coming out of the NL next year are only going to be something like 30%.

He's running out of flashy statistical things to do that don't involve pitching, and it doesn't seem like his arm is going to be able to hold up to like win a Cy Young or something like that. He had a one year peak in steals and then went back down to 20 last year, and he's never had more than 55 HR in a year, so something like 60/60 doesn't seem overly likely. He's at least 4-5 years away from 500 HR, won't ever get to 3,000 hits.

There are a bunch of things with Ohtani that are POSSIBLE from here that would cause his market to go up. But investing is done from expected value. When there's an outlier of this magnitude there are a lot more things that will bring it back into line than there are that will make it even more of an outlier. In that sense, it's not a bet I would be comfortable making if it was a purely financial choice.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

FWIW, of the guys that are too big for my bankroll Acuna and J-Rod would be the one's I'd be after. Gunnar Henderson too.

Won't lie, the truly high end cards I've been buying for the last few months have mostly been Gunnar.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Won't lie, the truly high end cards I've been buying for the last few months have mostly been Gunnar.

I think Gunnar is due for a bounceback year. It's not that he had a terrible year last year, but he just got lost in the suck that was the 2025 Orioles. Though his power outage might be of concern.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Not underestimating is one of those things that works until it doesn't. It just feels like there's a lot of people that are thinking that his market has shot up so much that it means his market should keep doing the same thing. But we've seen so many times where that hasn't happened - everything to do with 2021, for instance.

What's the trigger for a bunch of people that aren't interested in buying Ohtani cards now to want to jump in at this time and price point? He could go pull a Randy Johnson/Yamamoto in next year's WS or something like that. But even with Dodgers being what they are, their odds of even coming out of the NL next year are only going to be something like 30%.

He's running out of flashy statistical things to do that don't involve pitching, and it doesn't seem like his arm is going to be able to hold up to like win a Cy Young or something like that. He had a one year peak in steals and then went back down to 20 last year, and he's never had more than 55 HR in a year, so something like 60/60 doesn't seem overly likely. He's at least 4-5 years away from 500 HR, won't ever get to 3,000 hits.

There are a bunch of things with Ohtani that are POSSIBLE from here that would cause his market to go up. But investing is done from expected value. When there's an outlier of this magnitude there are a lot more things that will bring it back into line than there are that will make it even more of an outlier. In that sense, it's not a bet I would be comfortable making if it was a purely financial choice.

This is for entertainment value only, but this is what Google Gemini predicts Ohtani's final MLB stats will be assuming 8 more years of play:

HR: 520
Hits: 2,200
RBI: 1,370
SB: 250
Pitching W's: 100
Pitcing K's: 1,570

If he can get to 500HR/100 wins, he's be the founding member (and likely only member ever) of that club. Ruth had 94 wins as a pitcher, so clearing Ruth in that regard would make his GOAT case even stronger.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Won't lie, the truly high end cards I've been buying for the last few months have mostly been Gunnar.

That’s interesting. Is it because you like Gunnar as a player or you like his WAR relative to age?

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

This is for entertainment value only, but this is what Google Gemini predicts Ohtani's final MLB stats will be assuming 8 more years of play:

HR: 520
Hits: 2,200
RBI: 1,370
SB: 250
Pitching W's: 100
Pitcing K's: 1,570

If he can get to 500HR/100 wins, he's be the founding member (and likely only member ever) of that club. Ruth had 94 wins as a pitcher, so clearing Ruth in that regard would make his GOAT case even stronger.

He only has 39 wins banked, and I'm super dubious that he's ever going to pitch 100 innings in a season again, so I'd fade 100 career wins - but that is definitely the sort of hype event that people have been getting at could affect his prices positively if it were to happen someday.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Also, I'm really curious how long Ohtani remains a full-time SP. I gotta think it is completely possible he transitions to primarily a reliever in his last few years, to ease the burden on his aging body as a 2-way player. If he reverts into a John Smoltz his last few years pitching, would that actually help his hobby value compared to staying a SP? Becoming a lockdown closer vs a fading SP?

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by tyrith

He only has 39 wins banked, and I'm super dubious that he's ever going to pitch 100 innings in a season again, so I'd fade 100 career wins - but that is definitely the sort of hype event that people have been getting at could affect his prices positively if it were to happen someday.

While the odds are low, it's in the realm of possibility he could achieve 500 HR and 100 W's during the same game. Imagine the hysteria if he managed to pull that off. Lol
Topps Now cards up the wazoo the next day!

Also logical that switching to a closer role his last few years would allow him to pad his batting numbers more, with less wear and tear not being a starter.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

While the odds are low, it's in the realm of possibility he could achieve 500 HR and 100 W's during the same game. Imagine the hysteria if he managed to pull that off. Lol
Topps Now cards up the wazoo the next day!

Also logical that switching to a closer role his last few years would allow him to pad his batting numbers more, with less wear and tear not being a starter.

They'd have to shift the rules more to make it possible for that to work. And as a practical matter, trying to warm up and such while he might have to bat would be a logistical nightmare and make his deployment difficult. I've never really bought into the RP thing for him - seems a lot more likely he just makes 15 starts a year or something.

[kipgen]

My issue with Gunnar is, as we saw with Corbin Carroll this year, bounceback seasons don't necessarily lead to price appreciation

It takes like major, MVP contention level play to do that

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by tyrith

They'd have to shift the rules more to make it possible for that to work. And as a practical matter, trying to warm up and such while he might have to bat would be a logistical nightmare and make his deployment difficult. I've never really bought into the RP thing for him - seems a lot more likely he just makes 15 starts a year or something.

Yeah, it would likely take a rule change for the Dodgers/Ohtani to consider a full-time switch to closer (or relief pitcher). I'm sure he wants to stay a SP as long as possible.

Also, my scenario assumes he hangs it up after his current contract is up. If he decided to play another couple years after his current contract ends as a full-time DH only, who knows, maybe he'd be able to make a charge at 600 career HRs.

[BoSoxFan1999]

I'm looking at potential career benchmarks Ohtani has coming up the next few years:

2026
- 300th career HR (sitting at 280 currently)
- 50th win as a pitcher (39)

2027
(nothing too notable....hoping his 2027 stats aren't "N/A - season cancelled")

2028
- 400th HR (would need to average 40 between 2026-2028)

2029
(again, not much projected for significant career milestones)

2030
- 500th HR?

2031
- 100th career win?

2032
- 1,500 strikeouts?

2033
- swan song?

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

Just curious if you tracked Crochet over the same period?

I know the Crochet stuff I bought in early 2024 was roughly 10x last i looked (prob little less now in offseason). Tried very hard to buy the super auto also but i wouldn't pay the extra 250 or whatever sadly.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I will let rwperu34 speak for himself! I get what you are saying too. You are saying if the entire baseball singles market goes up more than Ohtani prices go up those other players would have a better ROI.

But that is not what the OP mentioned.
"top current active players to buy and collect from an ROI standpoint"

This is not being compared to a theoretic market.

So maybe the OP should define ROI in the short term or long term.

When he mentions buy and collect I am taking that as long term. So maybe OP needs to add a specific time frame.

I will pick a random time frame of 10 years. The OP list seems more geared to that type of time frame, as well as others.

My list would only be #1 Ohtani and #2 Judge.

So who would rwperu34 or you pick to out perform Ohtani and Judge over the next 10 years (not against a theoretic market singles index).

My analogy....
I am not asking you to pick a stock to beat the S and P 500 over the next 10 years. I am asking you to tell me which stocks you think will perform best over the next 10 years.

There are are points here (1) If you were forced to buy a card of a player and hold it for exactly 10 years then yes Ohtani will likely outperform any other active players (id prob take rare mantle over ohtani for 10 years).

(2) if you said here is $1,000 or 10,000 to spend on cards right now, turn that into as much money as possible in 10 years there is a 0% chance you would park your money into Ohtani. you would just flip guys for next 10 years and massively outperform Othani market

(3) If you said here is 1 million dollars and you are forced to spend it on baseball cards and hold those for 10 years, then yes a lot of that money would go into Ohtani.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

There are are points here (1) If you were forced to buy a card of a player and hold it for exactly 10 years then yes Ohtani will likely outperform any other active players (id prob take rare mantle over ohtani for 10 years).

(2) if you said here is $1,000 or 10,000 to spend on cards right now, turn that into as much money as possible in 10 years there is a 0% chance you would park your money into Ohtani. you would just flip guys for next 10 years and massively outperform Othani market

(3) If you said here is 1 million dollars and you are forced to spend it on baseball cards and hold those for 10 years, then yes a lot of that money would go into Ohtani.

Sure that's true, but then we're talking about what is the likelihood of your guessing right over the next ten years to the point where you outperform Ohtani's market versus simply holding Ohtani?

[ThoseBackPages]

some of you make this all sound like work.

like card? can afford card? buy card.

dont like card anymore? sell card.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Sure that's true, but then we're talking about what is the likelihood of your guessing right over the next ten years to the point where you outperform Ohtani's market versus simply holding Ohtani?

Its just gonna be a question of how much capital you have to deploy. If you want to mess around with $1-5k It would be very easy I would think.

If you are talking a minimum of 6-7 figures then it would be very difficult to outperform him, but once we get into 6-7 figure territory obv would be directing that capital to other asset classes if ROI only goal

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

There are are points here (1) If you were forced to buy a card of a player and hold it for exactly 10 years then yes Ohtani will likely outperform any other active players (id prob take rare mantle over ohtani for 10 years).

(2) if you said here is $1,000 or 10,000 to spend on cards right now, turn that into as much money as possible in 10 years there is a 0% chance you would park your money into Ohtani. you would just flip guys for next 10 years and massively outperform Othani market

(3) If you said here is 1 million dollars and you are forced to spend it on baseball cards and hold those for 10 years, then yes a lot of that money would go into Ohtani.

Thats kind of my point with this thread. The OP listed Ohtani and Judge 1 and 2 and mention ROI. Then mentioned a few others with short term and long term.

The time frame has to be clarified to have a better understanding of the question.

Of course if you went to a show or bought on Ebay highly liquid players at 80% of comps or below and then sold at 100% comps you would do way better and have a higher ROI. But I don't think that is what the OP had in mind with his question.