Top 5 current baseball players to collect/invest

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am not doubting Ohtani will have a decline in production as he gets older. This happens to every great player (except Barry Bonds of course he only got better with advancing age).

So you think Ohtani prices when he is declining or when he retires will be lower than they are today?

It happens to literally every player's card market. Yes, their cards will either go through a period where they are worth less than today, or at the very least will not increase as much as the overall market does, which is still a poor ROI for that period. Even Michael Jordan and Griffey went through that period. I'm not sure why people think it won't happen for Ohtani. It took a nearly a decade after both of those two retired for their cards to skyrocket again.

[elsoblanco]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It happens to literally every player's card market. Yes, their cards will either go through a period where they are worth less than today, or at the very least will not increase as much as the overall market does, which is still a poor ROI for that period. Even Michael Jordan and Griffey went through that period. I'm not sure why people think it won't happen for Ohtani. It took a nearly a decade after both of those two retired for their cards to skyrocket again.

Sage advice from somone who has clearly seen it happen all too many times before.☝️👌

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by msink28

Here are my five:

1) Ohtani
2) Soto
3) Judge
4) J-Rod
5) Vlad. Jr.

-Ohtani is reaching MJ status so there's plenty of room across-the-board for stuff to grow.
-Soto is only 26, could easily go 40/40 three out of the next five years. At the end of the day what you look for long-term is the probability to accumulate. He stands a decent chance of a Triple Crown, winning more World Series, etc.
Plenty of upside in early Gold Refractors, Heritage autos, graded shorter print rookies, etc.
-Judge is transitioning into Yankee icon status.
-J-Rod is very cheap for his production, same with Vladdy Jr.

Soto really needs a monster season where he wins an MVP, which is tall task being in the same league as Ohtani. However, Soto really needs to add an MVP to his resume along with winning with the Mets.

[TheGZA]

Originally Posted by msink28

Here are my five:

1) Ohtani
2) Soto
3) Judge
4) J-Rod
5) Vlad. Jr.

-Ohtani is reaching MJ status so there's plenty of room across-the-board for stuff to grow.
-Soto is only 26, could easily go 40/40 three out of the next five years. At the end of the day what you look for long-term is the probability to accumulate. He stands a decent chance of a Triple Crown, winning more World Series, etc.
Plenty of upside in early Gold Refractors, Heritage autos, graded shorter print rookies, etc.
-Judge is transitioning into Yankee icon status.
-J-Rod is very cheap for his production, same with Vladdy Jr.

Mostly agree with your list....but J-Rod over Acuna? Unless you're saying Acuna stuff is priced correctly and Julio is underpriced?

[Tim]

Originally Posted by msink28

Here are my five:

1) Ohtani
2) Soto
3) Judge
4) J-Rod
5) Vlad. Jr.

-Ohtani is reaching MJ status so there's plenty of room across-the-board for stuff to grow.
-Soto is only 26, could easily go 40/40 three out of the next five years. At the end of the day what you look for long-term is the probability to accumulate. He stands a decent chance of a Triple Crown, winning more World Series, etc.
Plenty of upside in early Gold Refractors, Heritage autos, graded shorter print rookies, etc.
-Judge is transitioning into Yankee icon status.
-J-Rod is very cheap for his production, same with Vladdy Jr.

Agree completely with this list and the only change to consider is if the Yanks win the WS then Judge goes to #2. But a Mets WS or a Yankees WS with Soto or Judge leading the way will move the winner into a significantly higher stratosphere. (But still second to Ohtani.)

What so many people are missing when it comes to Ohtani is that he is actually significantly UNDERPRICED at the moment given what he has already done. The only way the answer to the OP's question isn't Ohtani in a landslide is injury, which admittedly is a viable possibility (as it is with anyone though). Should Ohtani remain mostly injury-free, there is still tremendous upside there. But the same naysayers who can't see it are the same ones who chose to pass on collecting him all along.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Tim

What so many people are missing when it comes to Ohtani is that he is actually significantly UNDERPRICED at the moment given what he has already done. The only way the answer to the OP's question isn't Ohtani in a landslide is injury, which admittedly is a viable possibility (as it is with anyone though). Should Ohtani remain mostly injury-free, there is still tremendous upside there. But the same naysayers who can't see it are the same ones who chose to pass on collecting him all along.

For what he's done on the field I don't think he's underpriced at all, unless you'd say that Aaron Judge is underpriced by about 4x as much. Even if you strip out Aaron Judge's 2017, in the 2018-2025 period Judge is up 3-5 WAR in both systems. Over the last three years he's maybe 2 WAR ahead of BWJ, whose cards cost maybe 1/10th as much as most.

There are lots of good arguments for Ohtani. He's clearly a top 2 player in the league ATM. But let's not pretend his incredibly high prices are some creation purely of his achievements. The fourth MVP award doesn't imbue a 4x price increase with it. Also, the injury thing is pretty darn real for a player whose unique value add is the fact that he pitches, when he's already had multiple major arm issues. Injury is not some phantom possibility here; he's thrown 47 regular season innings in two years.

[msink28]

I guess I'm worried about injuries at this point with Acuña which is why he didn't make the list for me. With that said I think there's plenty of value to be had there too, particularly with early refractors and some rookie stuff.

As for J-Rod, he is 24, he went 30/30 and had his third top-10 MVP finish in first four seasons, yet his cards essentially didn't move. You can get a TCU PSA 10 rookie for $40. Offers great value in my opinion.

Originally Posted by TheGZA

Mostly agree with your list....but J-Rod over Acuna? Unless you're saying Acuna stuff is priced correctly and Julio is underpriced?

[ThoseBackPages]

Ohtani is the greatest Asian MLB Player of all time, having passed Ichiro.

Aaron Judge is a great player in a long line of Amazing American Players.

Huge difference.

Nobody wants to hear it, but it's true.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by tyrith

There are lots of good arguments for Ohtani. He's clearly a top 2 player in the league ATM.

Ah, a frustrated Yankees fan. Now I get it.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by tyrith

For what he's done on the field I don't think he's underpriced at all, unless you'd say that Aaron Judge is underpriced by about 4x as much. Even if you strip out Aaron Judge's 2017, in the 2018-2025 period Judge is up 3-5 WAR in both systems. Over the last three years he's maybe 2 WAR ahead of BWJ, whose cards cost maybe 1/10th as much as most.

There are lots of good arguments for Ohtani. He's clearly a top 2 player in the league ATM. But let's not pretend his incredibly high prices are some creation purely of his achievements. The fourth MVP award doesn't imbue a 4x price increase with it. Also, the injury thing is pretty darn real for a player whose unique value add is the fact that he pitches, when he's already had multiple major arm issues. Injury is not some phantom possibility here; he's thrown 47 regular season innings in two years.

Do you collect Judge and not Ohtani? To be transparent I have a pretty large Ohtani collection and a small Judge collection. And I said previously these are the only two players I am confident will go up in value long term.

But let's not pretend Ohtani is lacking accomplishments on the field vs Judge. Sure if you go only by WAR your argument would be fair. But what about the 4 MVPs, 2 WS rings and a historic 50/50 that has never been accomplished before. Also, there is that 2vway player thing in which he was both an all star hitter and pitcher.

But it's not just about on the field accomplishments in this hobby. Ohtani is way more popular than Judge and has a global market due to being Japanese. He is super likeable on and off the field. Collectors have spoken and he is the most collected current player by dollars spent.

[ThoseBackPages]

wait.... $ean buys Ohtani?

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you collect Judge and not Ohtani? To be transparent I have a pretty large Ohtani collection and a small Judge collection. And I said previously these are the only two players I am confident will go up in value long term.

But let's not pretend Ohtani is lacking accomplishments on the field vs Judge. Sure if you go only by WAR your argument would be fair. But what about the 4 MVPs, 2 WS rings and a historic 50/50 that has never been accomplished before. Also, there is that 2vway player thing in which he was both an all star hitter and pitcher.

But it's not just about on the field accomplishments in this hobby. Ohtani is way more popular than Judge and has a global market due to being Japanese. He is super likeable on and off the field. Collectors have spoken and he is the most collected current player by dollars spent.

Sure, but let's stop pretending that Ohtani is 4x Judge because Ohtani is a dramatically better player than Judge is. There are a bunch of non-performance reasons why Ohtani is 4x Judge. As actual players Judge has been the better batter every year except 2021 and 2023, and a number of those years - especially the last two - it hasn't been particularly close.

Originally Posted by Tim

Ah, a frustrated Yankees fan. Now I get it.

I'm pretty sure the least bit of research into my posting history would demonstrate this isn't true.

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Do you collect Judge and not Ohtani? To be transparent I have a pretty large Ohtani collection and a small Judge collection. And I said previously these are the only two players I am confident will go up in value long term.

But let's not pretend Ohtani is lacking accomplishments on the field vs Judge. Sure if you go only by WAR your argument would be fair. But what about the 4 MVPs, 2 WS rings and a historic 50/50 that has never been accomplished before. Also, there is that 2vway player thing in which he was both an all star hitter and pitcher.

But it's not just about on the field accomplishments in this hobby. Ohtani is way more popular than Judge and has a global market due to being Japanese. He is super likeable on and off the field. Collectors have spoken and he is the most collected current player by dollars spent.

I do not own any cards of substance of either player. I do own some expensive Witts.

Admittedly, I see baseball from an analytical point of view. Something like 50/50 is pretty much a nothingburger to me - I don't really view it as an accomplishment that someone who watches baseball should inherently value as skill representative, even though it's certainly a cool thing to happen. Judge led Ohtani by 60 points of OBP this year and 65 points of slugging while playing the field most of the time.

So when it specifically comes to the charge of "oh, you must not be watching baseball if you don't think Ohtani is the best player" - that's something I'm going to strenuously disagree with. The most novel, unique player - sure. Those two aren't the same thing.

None of this is me even disagreeing with their relative valuations in the marketplace - but let's acknowledge WHY the gap is what it is and not sugarcoat it.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

Do you have an equivalent progression for pitchers?

Not really. I mean Skubal and Skenes are showing us the way. These two are where the point really gets driven home. Skubal is up 12x from this time two years ago. Skenes is only up 3x (once you get out of the release window).

Skenes is/was more expensive, but Skubal is/was a better bet for ROI.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am not doubting Ohtani will have a decline in production as he gets older. This happens to every great player (except Barry Bonds of course he only got better with advancing age).

So you think Ohtani prices when he is declining or when he retires will be lower than they are today?

Yes. When Ohtani hits his decline, his prices will fall. Given that for the rest of his prime it is going to be difficult for him to beat the market due the insanely high bar, IMO, that makes him a bad long term ROI bet at this point.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

It usually takes a totally off the radar guy like Cal Raleigh to get a 5x or better return within a season.

Raleigh was up 10x this year, but he wasn't the biggest gain that I tracked. That honor goes to Payton Tolle, up about 12x.

I lost the post, but an apples to apples comparison (ie my Price Index #), Judge is about 4x Witt Jr. If he's 10x on any particular cards that's due more to production increases rather than on field performance.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by TheGZA

Mostly agree with your list....but J-Rod over Acuna? Unless you're saying Acuna stuff is priced correctly and Julio is underpriced?

FWIW, of the guys that are too big for my bankroll Acuna and J-Rod would be the one's I'd be after. Gunnar Henderson too.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Not really. I mean Skubal and Skenes are showing us the way. These two are where the point really gets driven home. Skubal is up 12x from this time two years ago. Skenes is only up 3x (once you get out of the release window).

Skenes is/was more expensive, but Skubal is/was a better bet for ROI.

Crazy thing I saw other day (no idea if true) but a skubal true gold BCA auto just went for only 1k (would have bought if I knew), meanwhile same auto of Nolan McLean went for 3k

Yea, raw skubal went fir like 1k vs 3000 for psa 10 McLean lol


I guess this is good since I have healthy McLean stash and no skubal sadly

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

Crazy thing I saw other day (no idea if true) but a skubal true gold BCA auto just went for only 1k (would have bought if I knew), meanwhile same auto of Nolan McLean went for 3k

Yea, raw skubal went fir like 1k vs 3000 for psa 10 McLean lol


I guess this is good since I have healthy McLean stash and no skubal sadly

That's a pretty damn good price for Skubal Gold relative to what his other stuff has been going for. I wonder how much a 3rd straight CYA will bump his price if he can get it? Probably another 2.5x.

I just checked. It was $1280 for the Skubal, $3000 for the PSA 10 McClean. This is why, IMO, I'm not even close to being capped in my earnings potential. I would have happily hit the $1,500 BIN for that Skubal if I had enough cash. Problem is, I've been on $60 max bid for the last month!

[kipgen]

I forgot before but Roman Anthony is a guy I can see having huge gains next year as well

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

That's a pretty damn good price for Skubal Gold relative to what his other stuff has been going for. I wonder how much a 3rd straight CYA will bump his price if he can get it? Probably another 2.5x.

I just checked. It was $1280 for the Skubal, $3000 for the PSA 10 McClean. This is why, IMO, I'm not even close to being capped in my earnings potential. I would have happily hit the $1,500 BIN for that Skubal if I had enough cash. Problem is, I've been on $60 max bid for the last month!

Yea sad I missed would have happily paid that. Also the inevitable Bump when he wins World Series for dodgers I imagine

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Yes. When Ohtani hits his decline, his prices will fall. Given that for the rest of his prime it is going to be difficult for him to beat the market due the insanely high bar, IMO, that makes him a bad long term ROI bet at this point.

So at what point do you think Ohtani is going to under perform the market? Starting this year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?

What player(s) do you think will have a higher ROI going forward/long term?

Do I think you can flip cards and make money year to year...yes! I just have a hard time believing you can pick current players that will have a better ROI long term than Ohtani.

Ohtani has 8 more years on his contract. So I guess we should be able to settle this argument in like 10 years. I will take Ohtani. Which player(s) will you be picking?

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

So at what point do you think Ohtani is going to under perform the market? Starting this year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?

What player(s) do you think will have a higher ROI going forward/long term?

Do I think you can flip cards and make money year to year yes! I just have a hard time believing you can pick current players that will have a better ROI long term than Ohtani.

Ohtani has 8 more years on his contract. So I guess we should be able to settle this argument in like 10 years. I will take Ohtani. Which player(s) will you be picking?

At this point, Ohtani transcends baseball. He's entered the echelon of Jordan/Kobe/Brady. I'd argue he's even passed Mahomes (before injury). Will his prices slip at some point due to father time finally catching up with Shohei? I'm sure they will. But whether that happens 2/4/6 years down the road, even when his prices do slip with decreased performance on the field, they will still be significantly higher than current prices IMO.

And if we're talking about holding for 20+ years, it's a no-brainer to stock up on Ohtani right now.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by kipgen

I forgot before but Roman Anthony is a guy I can see having huge gains next year as well

I've been looking for 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractors (/499) to get in, but nothing has popped up in the last month or so (within my range). It's crazy.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

At this point, Ohtani transcends baseball. He's entered the echelon of Jordan/Kobe/Brady. I'd argue he's even passed Mahomes (before injury). Will his prices slip at some point due to father time finally catching up with Shohei? I'm sure they will. But whether that happens 2/4/6 years down the road, even when his prices do slip with decreased performance on the field, they will still be significantly higher than current prices IMO.

And if we're talking about holding for 20+ years, it's a no-brainer to stock up on Ohtani right now.

This is what I’ve been trying to say! High end Ohtani cards are now in the playground if the ultra wealthy. The same group that casually drops $10k-$20k on rare Jordan/Brady/Kobe/Mahomes cards. If I was looking to invest (not gamble/speculate) on any current player it would be Ohtani, and not sure if anyone is even in 2nd place. And this is coming from someone with a Judge PC.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

I've been looking for 2023 Bowman Chrome 1st Refractors (/499) to get in, but nothing has popped up in the last month or so (within my range). It's crazy.

I rarely buy 1st Bowmans these days, but did snag his #/499 for $60 before his hype train really took off.