Top 5 current baseball players to collect/invest

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Judge might be a better hitter but Ohtani Pitches and has two world series rings in the last two years and Judge has zero in his entire career.

I'm a huge fan of both of them but there is a reason Ohtani is the #1 guy

The Dodgers and the brand are definitely why Ohtani is Ohtani. He's not just the #1 guy - like for like, he's 4x Judge and essentially 6-7x anyone else. That gap will hold in some large capacity, but I just think there are people here being cavalier about the downside risk when someone's cards are THIS expensive and the underlying player isn't truly that far ahead of some of the comps, even though he's a brilliant, generational baseball player.

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

1. Ohtani
2. Pitchers

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

I am pretty sure I have mentioned in your threads that each of the past two years you would have done better buying Ohtani in the off season and selling during the season, then the players you did buy.

And the Ohtani market keeps on performing better than every other current baseball player.

Do you think Ohtani demand has peaked? Because this seems to be the only way his card values would not outpace the rest of the market.

One of the big things that hurts me in this discusstion is since Ohtani doesn't have any 1st Bowman, he's not in my Price Index. That said, thanks to some of the numbers bandied in this thread I can illustrate why it will be tough for Ohtani to beat the overall market in the long run.

If Ohtani is 4x Judge and Judge is $4,000, that would put Ohtani at $16,000. The closing total of the 25 guys in my Price Index as of a few weeks ago was a little over $8,000. Ohtani basically is the market at this point. And he will be until someone takes over the mantle as #1 hobby darling (which will happen). Just as Trout was the market when he was the guy...until Ohtani took over.

FWIW, a $16,000 Ohtani still has a ways to go catch peak Trout, although adjusting for the market (still down quite a bit from peak Trout) Ohtani is better. Then again, Trout was roughly 6x #2, with Ohtani only 4x.

As for demand, what else can he do to drive more demand? I mean if he pops 80 HR next year, obviously his prices will rise. Maybe a CYA? The flip side of that is what if he finishes 3rd in the MVP voting?

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

Ohtani has already done everything Trout was expected to do, and more. At this point it’s just icing on the cake for Shohei.

Originally Posted by seanrs1

The accomplishments have already occurred. 4 MVP's 2 WS rings. Even if Ohtani does not collect any more hardware going forward he is still a legend for what he has done.

These are both true statements, but everything he's already done and then some is already factored into his current price.

No matter what people think, at some point in the not too distant future (call it 0-7 years), somebody will supplant Ohtani as the best player in the game. At that point Ohtani's price will start to fall, just as Trout's did. Just as Pujols's did. Just as every single superstar throughout history has at the end of their career.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

prospecting used to be great. But now every prospect is priced out the gate like they're the next Ohtani or Juan Soto. So unless you're really going after guys that are off the radar it isn't worth it imo

This is false. The #1 prospect in the game is less than $400, he's 1.5x #2 and 3x #4. Ohtani $16,000 (est.). Judge $4,000. Soto $1,500.

I've said this 1,000 times. Prospect prices make senes when compared to the young MLB stars. The young MLB stars make sense when compared to the ATG. On the whole, everything is rational.

Maybe you're talking just at release when prices are stupid. They are just as stupid for Ohtani, Judge, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth. Just wait six months and you'll get the card you want for less than half.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by Absknicks

Judge is light years ahead of Ohtani as a bat but I guess the circus act aspect of pitching once in a while gives him a boost with the easily amused types.

Maybe one of these years Ohtani can manage to OPS within 100 points of Judge. Would be a big milestone for him.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

The only good thing is that the market IS realizing that these international names are/were incredibly overpriced. Diego Tornes is probably comparable to Pedro Pineda, but Pineda was a $50 Bowman Chrome auto in 2021, and Tornes is $20 in 2025.

Just want to point out this is merely market conditions. A ton of guys are down that much;

Trout, down 85%
Soto, down 55%
Acuna, down 75%
Vlad Jr., down 80%
Tatis, down 85%
Mookie, down 50%
LouBob, who even knows, probably >95%
Heck, Bobby Witt, who has been one of the biggest risers of all during that time, is only up 25%.
Harper is up 30%.
J-Rod is down 20%. I repeat. J-Rod is down 20%.
Lindor, down 40%.
Bo Bichette, down 85%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, ROTFL
Gleyebr, down >95%

Here's the instructive one. Marco Luciano, who was merely a young, top 20 prospect (although more like top 50 in my book!), was over $400. I might liken him to Luis Pena....who is $150.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Just want to point out this is merely market conditions. A ton of guys are down that much;

Trout, down 85%
Soto, down 55%
Acuna, down 75%
Vlad Jr., down 80%
Tatis, down 85%
Mookie, down 50%
LouBob, who even knows, probably >95%
Heck, Bobby Witt, who has been one of the biggest risers of all during that time, is only up 25%.
Harper is up 30%.
J-Rod is down 20%. I repeat. J-Rod is down 20%.
Lindor, down 40%.
Bo Bichette, down 85%.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, ROTFL
Gleyebr, down >95%

Where are you pulling these figures from?

Curious.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Where are you pulling these figures from?

Curious.

I've been tracking 1st Bowman Chrome Auto prices of the top players since 2017.

I post on it at the end of every year. I've got this year's finished, but haven't had time to do the review.

Price Index

[goalierb]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

prospecting used to be great. But now every prospect is priced out the gate like they're the next Ohtani or Juan Soto. So unless you're really going after guys that are off the radar it isn't worth it imo

I agree!
I've seen so many Breaks lately where almost every box contains 2-3 Kurtz cards, often even numbered!
Way too many rookie cards.

[Twalk1975]

I will admit to picking up some Skenes stuff that I thought was undervalued over the summer. I did it because of the WBC that is coming up soon. If he has a good showing in the WBC, I will probably unload half of it, and the other half at mid-season. I don't know what to expect in 2027, maybe a partially lost season at best? I can't imagine that will be good for card prices in general.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

One of the big things that hurts me in this discusstion is since Ohtani doesn't have any 1st Bowman, he's not in my Price Index. That said, thanks to some of the numbers bandied in this thread I can illustrate why it will be tough for Ohtani to beat the overall market in the long run.

If Ohtani is 4x Judge and Judge is $4,000, that would put Ohtani at $16,000. The closing total of the 25 guys in my Price Index as of a few weeks ago was a little over $8,000. Ohtani basically is the market at this point. And he will be until someone takes over the mantle as #1 hobby darling (which will happen). Just as Trout was the market when he was the guy...until Ohtani took over.

FWIW, a $16,000 Ohtani still has a ways to go catch peak Trout, although adjusting for the market (still down quite a bit from peak Trout) Ohtani is better. Then again, Trout was roughly 6x #2, with Ohtani only 4x.

As for demand, what else can he do to drive more demand? I mean if he pops 80 HR next year, obviously his prices will rise. Maybe a CYA? The flip side of that is what if he finishes 3rd in the MVP voting?

If Ohtani had a BCA 1st it would be worth way more than 16k. Most of his RC autos that are PSA10 are over 20k. I get that your price index is based on BCA 1st, but maybe this is not the best way to look at Ohtani prices. As I said before, if you had bought Ohtani in the off season the past 3 years and sold during the season you would have been better off. This off season his cards have gone up in price for the first time ever. I don't know what this means for the future.

In terms of demand you think it is going to flatten or go down? I think Ohtani has entered the realm where his demand is going to be like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, etc. It is going to go up for a lot of factors. I think every kid that is going to join the hobby in the future is going to want some of his RC cards. And his global demand is only going to go up over time. I know you think everything is already baked into his prices, but as we have seen the last two years, that is not true. It is possible he could win a few more MVP's and WS rings in the next few years...you think demand is not going to go up more. Even if doesn't add anymore hardware I still see demand going up. Especially as his stats accrue year after year.

[boxbuster7]

Diego Tornes is probably comparable to Pedro Pineda

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Use of the terms “pitching novelty” and “circus” in regards to the two way thing seem quite salty and dismissive considering his effectiveness when on the mound.

This is what I was just about to post. Guy struck out 10 in 6 scoreless with velo topping out over 100 in a game in which he hit 3 HR... IN THE PLAYOFFS! Legit ace stuff, 50HR bat and legit postseason "moments" on both the international and domestic stages and we're hearing about the "circus act aspect of pitching once in a while".

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

Diego Tornes is probably comparable to Pedro Pineda

Pineda was the #12 international prospect and signed for 2.5mm, put up modestly decent stats in the DSL at age 17, wasn't considered in the top tier of int'l prospects like Wilman Diaz, but had a projectable frame that suggested future corner outfielder with pop.

Tornes is the #15 international prospect and signed for 2.5mm, put up modestly decent stats in the DSL at age 17, wasn't considered in the top tier of int'l prospects like Josuar Gonzalez, but has a projectable frame suggesting future corner outfielder with pop.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If Ohtani had a BCA 1st it would be worth way more than 16k. Most of his RC autos that are PSA10 are over 20k. I get that your price index is based on BCA 1st, but maybe this is not the best way to look at Ohtani prices. As I said before, if you had bought Ohtani in the off season the past 3 years and sold during the season you would have been better off. This off season his cards have gone up in price for the first time ever. I don't know what this means for the future.

In terms of demand you think it is going to flatten or go down? I think Ohtani has entered the realm where his demand is going to be like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, etc. It is going to go up for a lot of factors. I think every kid that is going to join the hobby in the future is going to want some of his RC cards. And his global demand is only going to go up over time. I know you think everything is already baked into his prices, but as we have seen the last two years, that is not true. It is possible he could win a few more MVP's and WS rings in the next few years...you think demand is not going to go up more. Even if doesn't add anymore hardware I still see demand going up. Especially as his stats accrue year after year.

Just a single anecdote, but at the Philly card show I saw 1 dealer that had nearly 100% vintage baseball on display. The 1 exception? A couple of Ohtani rookie cards (nothing huge, but still).

[kipgen]

Long term, I think Ohtani and Judge could do very well. However, for me, the initial buy-in cost on those guys (maybe not Judge but Ohtani definitely) is just too high to justify. In terms of the guy whose prices are in a stable spot but have a lot of room to grow, I'd say Soto is my clear answer.

Things in his favor:
Stays healthy
Best plate discipline in the game which contributes to his overall stats
Power seems to be growing and he's entering his prime now
Has 42.6 WAR at age 26 which is far and away the best in his age group
Locked into the Mets for a long time

Things going against him:
Hasn't won an MVP (this may actually work in his favor because it's a catalyst for price increase if he can do it)
Some people don't like his personality
Bad defense (most likely future DH)

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If Ohtani had a BCA 1st it would be worth way more than 16k. Most of his RC autos that are PSA10 are over 20k. I get that your price index is based on BCA 1st, but maybe this is not the best way to look at Ohtani prices. As I said before, if you had bought Ohtani in the off season the past 3 years and sold during the season you would have been better off. This off season his cards have gone up in price for the first time ever. I don't know what this means for the future.

In terms of demand you think it is going to flatten or go down? I think Ohtani has entered the realm where his demand is going to be like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, etc. It is going to go up for a lot of factors. I think every kid that is going to join the hobby in the future is going to want some of his RC cards. And his global demand is only going to go up over time. I know you think everything is already baked into his prices, but as we have seen the last two years, that is not true. It is possible he could win a few more MVP's and WS rings in the next few years...you think demand is not going to go up more. Even if doesn't add anymore hardware I still see demand going up. Especially as his stats accrue year after year.

Buying Ohtani in the off season and selling for more during the season doesn't make him special, it's literally how the baseball market works. His cards just followed the market trends. The fact that he has gone up this off season is only more reason to avoid his cards as an investment right now. When an asset that follows market trends all of a sudden stays higher than the market trends, it's time to sell, not buy. You will be able to buy in during another off season lull in the future that is guaranteed to come. Even Jordan and Brady, who you seem to compare his market to, had that market downturn.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If you want to argue Bonds prices are equivalent or better than Ohtani and that is he is more popular hobby wise go ahead. But from this observer it is not even close.

Below is a chart of total sales on Ebay YTD. I don't see Bonds on the list. I do see KGJ.

This chart actually makes me think I should own more Brady, there's no reason for him to be that far down

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

If Ohtani had a BCA 1st it would be worth way more than 16k. Most of his RC autos that are PSA10 are over 20k. I get that your price index is based on BCA 1st, but maybe this is not the best way to look at Ohtani prices. As I said before, if you had bought Ohtani in the off season the past 3 years and sold during the season you would have been better off. This off season his cards have gone up in price for the first time ever. I don't know what this means for the future.

In terms of demand you think it is going to flatten or go down? I think Ohtani has entered the realm where his demand is going to be like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, etc. It is going to go up for a lot of factors. I think every kid that is going to join the hobby in the future is going to want some of his RC cards. And his global demand is only going to go up over time. I know you think everything is already baked into his prices, but as we have seen the last two years, that is not true. It is possible he could win a few more MVP's and WS rings in the next few years...you think demand is not going to go up more. Even if doesn't add anymore hardware I still see demand going up. Especially as his stats accrue year after year.

Everything has practically gone right for Ohtani the last couple of seasons -- 2 MVPs, 2 WS, 50-50 season, historic 3-homer, 6-shut-out-innings-pitched postseason game. The only significant things he didn't achieve was a WS MVP or CYA -- how can you compare him to Tom Brady (5x SB MVP) or Michael Jordan (6x NBA Finals MVP) when he hasn't even won a World Series MVP yet? He's unlikely to get a Cy Young Award because he won't pitch enough innings to be strongly considered -- the Dodgers would be stupid to let him.

So, he'll need to run it back again with another MVP and World Series championship to take things to another level and keep prices shooting to the moon. Otherwise, he'll settle into being merely the GOAT of this generation -- not all-time.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Long term, I think Ohtani and Judge could do very well. However, for me, the initial buy-in cost on those guys (maybe not Judge but Ohtani definitely) is just too high to justify. In terms of the guy whose prices are in a stable spot but have a lot of room to grow, I'd say Soto is my clear answer.

Things in his favor:
Stays healthy
Best plate discipline in the game which contributes to his overall stats
Power seems to be growing and he's entering his prime now
Has 42.6 WAR at age 26 which is far and away the best in his age group
Locked into the Mets for a long time

Things going against him:
Hasn't won an MVP (this may actually work in his favor because it's a catalyst for price increase if he can do it)
Some people don't like his personality
Bad defense (most likely future DH)

Soto is a great player and I think he will be a HOF one day. But to me his projection is more Miguel Cabrera than anything else. I love Miguel Cabrera, but hobby wise he is more of an after thought now. Prices are stable, but I don't see them going up more due to the lack of demand.

Soto card prices have not gone up in the past two years, despite him having excellent seasons. He would need to rack up a few MVP's as a met to get his cards to really go up in price. And he could do it. But his defense is not great and he will likely be a DH at some point in the future making it hard for him to accumulate a high enough WAR to win MVP. And as long as Ohtani is in the NL with him it will make it ever harder the next 5 years or so.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by kipgen

Long term, I think Ohtani and Judge could do very well. However, for me, the initial buy-in cost on those guys (maybe not Judge but Ohtani definitely) is just too high to justify. In terms of the guy whose prices are in a stable spot but have a lot of room to grow, I'd say Soto is my clear answer.

Things in his favor:
Stays healthy
Best plate discipline in the game which contributes to his overall stats
Power seems to be growing and he's entering his prime now
Has 42.6 WAR at age 26 which is far and away the best in his age group
Locked into the Mets for a long time

Things going against him:
Hasn't won an MVP (this may actually work in his favor because it's a catalyst for price increase if he can do it)
Some people don't like his personality
Bad defense (most likely future DH)

If he can win a World Series with the Mets and possibly an MVP (not likely with his bad defense), it would be a massive boon for his card prices.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Soto is a great player and I think he will be a HOF one day. But to me his projection is more Miguel Cabrera than anything else. I love Miguel Cabrera, but hobby wise he is more of an after thought now. Prices are stable, but I don't see them going up more due to the lack of demand.

Soto card prices have not gone up in the past two years, despite him having excellent seasons. He would need to rack up a few MVP's as a met to get his cards to really go up in price. And he could do it. But his defense is not great and he will likely be a DH at some point in the future making it hard for him to accumulate a high enough WAR to win MVP. And is long as Ohtani is in the NL with him it will make it ever harder the next 5 years or so.

Cabrera won a WS as a rookie with the Marlins (their second WS in 7 years) and didn't win one with the Tigers -- the team he's most associated with. Soto won a WS with the Nationals as a young buck, but if he were lead the Mets to a WS title, it would be a huge boon to his card prices.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

In terms of demand you think it is going to flatten or go down? I think Ohtani has entered the realm where his demand is going to be like Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, etc. It is going to go up for a lot of factors. I think every kid that is going to join the hobby in the future is going to want some of his RC cards. And his global demand is only going to go up over time. I know you think everything is already baked into his prices, but as we have seen the last two years, that is not true. It is possible he could win a few more MVP's and WS rings in the next few years...you think demand is not going to go up more. Even if doesn't add anymore hardware I still see demand going up. Especially as his stats accrue year after year.

I don't know if Ohtani is going to be seen as that kind of icon to the American audience in the future. So much of it is tied up to the international/Japanese component, and I really have no idea how that is going to go in the future. It could be even crazier than something like Brady, or it could be nothing. But I'd be surprised if he sticks around in the American zeitgeist like Jordan/Brady have in the retired years.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Soto is a great player and I think he will be a HOF one day. But to me his projection is more Miguel Cabrera than anything else. I love Miguel Cabrera, but hobby wise he is more of an after thought now. Prices are stable, but I don't see them going up more due to the lack of demand.

Soto card prices have not gone up in the past two years, despite him having excellent seasons. He would need to rack up a few MVP's as a met to get his cards to really go up in price. And he could do it. But his defense is not great and he will likely be a DH at some point in the future making it hard for him to accumulate a high enough WAR to win MVP. And as long as Ohtani is in the NL with him it will make it ever harder the next 5 years or so.

I love Soto, but he's going to be an accumulator versus the very best player in the league. He could wind up with a stupid high WAR total because he started so young and his batting eye will mean he can play forever, but it's going to be more the Adrian Beltre route to 90 WAR vs the Mike Trout route. Barring what you're saying, I agree - I don't really see a catalyst for his prices to shoot up.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by kipgen

This chart actually makes me think I should own more Brady, there's no reason for him to be that far down

You can't accurately use this chart to make an argument for hobby GOAT(s) as it's basically comparing apples to oranges to figs and non-fruits.

The types of cards (manufacturer, card attributes [auto, rare parallels, logoman/patches, inscription, etc], number of unique products, print-run, etc), particularly rookie cards as they generally have the most demand/value, differ by players/sport depending on year/license.

But it definitely makes me curious to know what autographed rookie cards (including logoman) and/or TC superfractors of MJ/Kobe would sell for as well as autographed TC/TC Sapphire/Topps Dynasty/Heritage red ink rookie cards of the former 2 plus Curry/LeBron.