Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Brazenways]

Meh the sports card market is so forward looking the biggest gains are when no one is watching.

Any guesses on the bottom price for his 2017 Prizm PSA 9…I think it gets to the low 900s. Don’t think it cracks the 800s unless folks are truly worried he wont be playing the next 5 years.

[KardsC1]

It all boils down to what cards people own…if you have cards that can be readily available, those cards will drop in prices to a degree ..simply because some of those are not his fans and want to dump to move onto the next $$ making athlete …but if you are a holder of mahomes rare and sought after cards, I don’t see much of a drop off..those guys aren’t selling anytime soon…gold Prizms and Multi color patch NT or flawless are going to continue to be locked up for now

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I think they should keep Spags. the defense is well coached i think. not sure if Andy has run his course or not. he made a really questionable call last night.

i still cannot believe he went for it 4th and 2 on his own 31

The past few years is on the coaching staff and especially the OC. The game plan for these games is utterly baffling.

For instance, the Bills had one of the worst rushing defenses and Reid and Co, decide just to try to pass against the Bills...and it fell on its face. Meanwhile the Dolphins the next week decide just to rush again the Bills and Achane had over 170+ yards and they won.

The Chiefs have for too long relied on Mahomes to carry the team. O-line deficiencies? No worries, Mahomes can extend plays. Horrible run game? It's ok Mahomes can scramble and he can throw.

This year exposed every weakness the Chiefs had. When you have zero downfield threat, and a weak rushing game...all the opponents know how to defend against you. You clog the intermediate part of the field...as it clogs those middle passing attempts and if the Chiefs do decide to run, well you've got everyone there to crash against our horrible running game.

The game in general seems to have really passed by Reid and Nagy. I think they can turn it around a bit next year but they're going to have to take a really hard look at their play calling/philosophy.

And if the Chiefs continue to be stubborn and refuse to change, I'm calling it now...Mahomes will play somewhere else. That's a fact.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

The game in general seems to have really passed by Reid and Nagy. I think they can turn it around a bit next year but they're going to have to take a really hard look at their play calling/philosophy.

And if the Chiefs continue to be stubborn and refuse to change, I'm calling it now...Mahomes will play somewhere else. That's a fact.

I agree with the bolded, though, I'm struggling to think of an instance of a HoF QB in their prime demanding a trade. I remember Carson Palmer did so in Cincinnati, but Mahomes doing it would be next level.

We have a similar situation brewing here in Milwaukee with Giannis. The hard part is, the franchise has tried everything to keep the Bucks in contention, but in doing so, they were just grasping at straws (Lillard signing) and prolonging the pain with no real reward. Sometimes you dig yourself a bigger hole by "going all in" rather than taking your medicine and starting over. And like KC probably knows, if they go that route (starting from scratch), Mahomes may end up asking out. On the flipside, trying to reload with below-average talent could be just as bad. They're almost in a lose-lose scenario here.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I think they should keep Spags. the defense is well coached i think. not sure if Andy has run his course or not. he made a really questionable call last night.

i still cannot believe he went for it 4th and 2 on his own 31

Wild call.

[daveyc1]

I cannot imagine Mahomes playing anywhere other than KC, but the more i think about, I guess I can see it.

I really think that a rebuild is necessary and not doing so will just prolong the inevitable. I wonder how happy Patrick would be under a 2-4 year rebuild? I cant imagine him wanting to waste the rest of his prime that way.

usually high profile QBs will end their careers with other teams, not join them mid career.

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Wild call.

Yeah against that defense maybe just punt. Just gave them a td

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Mahomes is past Joe if he gets his fourth due to Mahomes having more league MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ha no. Montana won SBs with 2 diff head coaches and 2 different teams (same franchise). Until Mahomes wins another ring with a new HC and someone other than Kelce, Joe has it. That drive to beat Cincy in 1989 SB is still untouched in SB history. Mahomes got smoked in 2 SBs. Joe Cool is undefeated in his 4.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jbabz84]

Originally Posted by razorsharp

Well it's over for Patty. His cards are going to take an absolute bath for the next 8 months.

He needs a bounce back next year.

Buy up

[TheKnicksRule]

It’s a tough reality to accept, but it increasingly seems that Patrick Mahomes has been sliding for the past two seasons. Issues like underthrown deep balls, wobbly throws, and uneasiness while standing in a clean pocket have become more frequent. What’s especially unsettling is that this slump is happening just as he should be entering the prime of his career, yet the numbers suggest regression.

For instance, over the 2023–2024 seasons, his deep-ball completion rate”dropped to under 30%, a career low for that metric. That year he threw 27 touchdowns, yet also a career-high 14 interceptions and registered a passer rating of only 92.6.

In 2024 he was slightly better in some respects (67.5 % completion, 26 TDs, 11 INTs), but the underlying indicators, especially deep-throw reliability continued to decline to a point where he is one of the worst league-wide.

This downward trend appears to have carried into 2025. Through thirteen games, his completion rate dipped to just 63.1%, with 3,398 yards, 22 TDs, and 10 INTs.

With all that being said, I have major concern to his card value. What used to be baked in as virtually guaranteed. MVP honors, record-breaking seasons, Super Bowl wins now seems increasingly speculative. Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the long-term value are likely to face continued downward pressure. And that’s where things get even more concerning.

The reality is that this roster likely needs a minimum of two full years of rebuilding, not minor tweaks. The cap is tight, the core pieces aren’t getting younger, and outside of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, the long-term offensive weapons are huge question marks. Travis Kelce is nearing the end, the WR room still lacks a true WR1, and Andy Reid’s future is uncertain. A multi-year rebuild wouldn’t just hit the team, it risks dealing a major blow to Mahomes himself. Going from “the unquestioned face of the league” to grinding through 9–8 or 10–7 seasons and fighting for wildcard berths could shake even a player of his caliber. When you combine that with clear statistical regression, lower deep-ball accuracy, declining yards per attempt, and back-to-back seasons with double-digit interceptions. The psychological impact becomes part of the equation.

And the league isn’t waiting around. Josh Allen has arguably taken the lead in the best-QB-in-football conversation, and the next wave of talent isn’t slowing down. Justin Herbert continues to put up elite numbers, Jordan Love is ascending faster than expected, and rookies like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are already flashing top-tier potential. The competition that Mahomes once seemed miles ahead of is now closing that gap rapidly.

So as bleak as it sounds, this isn’t just a temporary slump. This could be the beginning of a two-year identity reset for the Chiefs, and Mahomes may no longer be able to rely solely on raw talent to keep Kansas City afloat. The NFL is getting younger, faster, and deeper at QB, and unless the Chiefs overhaul their roster and offensive philosophy, they could easily slide from perennial No. 1 seeds to borderline wildcard contenders.

[blackandgold]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Ha no. Montana won SBs with 2 diff head coaches and 2 different teams (same franchise). Until Mahomes wins another ring with a new HC and someone other than Kelce, Joe has it. That drive to beat Cincy in 1989 SB is still untouched in SB history. Mahomes got smoked in 2 SBs. Joe Cool is undefeated in his 4.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

And the fact that Montana played in a hardened much tougher NFL Montana also got the Chiefs to the AFC championship game latter part of his career lol

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

And if the Chiefs continue to be stubborn and refuse to change, I'm calling it now...Mahomes will play somewhere else. That's a fact.

This is a dumb, hot take that can be thrown in the garbage

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by TheKnicksRule

It’s a tough reality to accept, but it increasingly seems that Patrick Mahomes has been sliding for the past two seasons. Issues like underthrown deep balls, wobbly throws, and uneasiness while standing in a clean pocket have become more frequent. What’s especially unsettling is that this slump is happening just as he should be entering the prime of his career, yet the numbers suggest regression.

For instance, over the 2023–2024 seasons, his deep-ball completion rate”dropped to under 30%, a career low for that metric. That year he threw 27 touchdowns, yet also a career-high 14 interceptions and registered a passer rating of only 92.6.

In 2024 he was slightly better in some respects (67.5 % completion, 26 TDs, 11 INTs), but the underlying indicators, especially deep-throw reliability continued to decline to a point where he is one of the worst league-wide.

This downward trend appears to have carried into 2025. Through thirteen games, his completion rate dipped to just 63.1%, with 3,398 yards, 22 TDs, and 10 INTs.

With all that being said, I have major concern to his card value. What used to be baked in as virtually guaranteed. MVP honors, record-breaking seasons, Super Bowl wins now seems increasingly speculative. Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the long-term value are likely to face continued downward pressure. And that’s where things get even more concerning.

The reality is that this roster likely needs a minimum of two full years of rebuilding, not minor tweaks. The cap is tight, the core pieces aren’t getting younger, and outside of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, the long-term offensive weapons are huge question marks. Travis Kelce is nearing the end, the WR room still lacks a true WR1, and Andy Reid’s future is uncertain. A multi-year rebuild wouldn’t just hit the team, it risks dealing a major blow to Mahomes himself. Going from “the unquestioned face of the league” to grinding through 9–8 or 10–7 seasons and fighting for wildcard berths could shake even a player of his caliber. When you combine that with clear statistical regression, lower deep-ball accuracy, declining yards per attempt, and back-to-back seasons with double-digit interceptions. The psychological impact becomes part of the equation.

And the league isn’t waiting around. Josh Allen has arguably taken the lead in the best-QB-in-football conversation, and the next wave of talent isn’t slowing down. Justin Herbert continues to put up elite numbers, Jordan Love is ascending faster than expected, and rookies like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are already flashing top-tier potential. The competition that Mahomes once seemed miles ahead of is now closing that gap rapidly.

So as bleak as it sounds, this isn’t just a temporary slump. This could be the beginning of a two-year identity reset for the Chiefs, and Mahomes may no longer be able to rely solely on raw talent to keep Kansas City afloat. The NFL is getting younger, faster, and deeper at QB, and unless the Chiefs overhaul their roster and offensive philosophy, they could easily slide from perennial No. 1 seeds to borderline wildcard contenders.

Hi, Delta!

[tmar214]

Originally Posted by pejc300

After seeing him absolutely dominate the league from 2018-2022 and after seeing him play super man in so many big playoff games, I think most of us are having a hard time believing he doesn't still possess those skills. My eye test is telling me he is headed downward - so many missed throws, terrible deep balls, bad decisions, etc. And yet, my soul just refuses to believe this is the end for him. He works his ass off in the off-season and still seems to want greatness. I think a little extra rest this season will do wonders. But time will tell!

I think mahomes is far enough ahead when it comes to stats based off his first 5 seasons that even with a relatively pedestrian second half of his career he will cruise in to the top 5 in most major passing stats. I’d say his goat status for this generation of QBs is easily secured. It’s not easy to win the super bowl and people got spoiled by Mahomes stretch of wins. You look at the betting odds each year and no team is much better than 1/10 to win the superbowl. That would put mahomes most likely winning 0-1 more. Granted they still rate to be in the mix and he can always go on a brady type run.

I’d expect his card values to stick around the same for now on higher end but even among higher end holders so much is owned by speculators. Maybe they wait a season or two but if Mahomes has another not spectacular statistical
season next year and the chiefs aren’t in the super bowl his cards could have a long way to fall.

[jjrpilot]

Originally Posted by Zauron

This is a dumb, hot take that can be thrown in the garbage

Interesting...bc if the Chiefs don't give him quality WRs, he will leave. Sunday's game he could have walked up to each of those guys and placed the ball in their hands and they would have still dropped it.

Listen, I want Mahomes to stay here in KC, but if they don't change their ways, he will leave for an organization that will get him the tools he needs. Want to piss off a QB? Surround him with unreliable receivers.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by tmar214

I think mahomes is far enough ahead when it comes to stats based off his first 5 seasons that even with a relatively pedestrian second half of his career he will cruise in to the top 5 in most major passing stats. I’d say his goat status for this generation of QBs is easily secured. It’s not easy to win the super bowl and people got spoiled by Mahomes stretch of wins. You look at the betting odds each year and no team is much better than 1/10 to win the superbowl. That would put mahomes most likely winning 0-1 more. Granted they still rate to be in the mix and he can always go on a brady type run.

I’d expect his card values to stick around the same for now on higher end but even among higher end holders so much is owned by speculators. Maybe they wait a season or two but if Mahomes has another not spectacular statistical
season next year and the chiefs aren’t in the super bowl his cards could have a long way to fall.

I think you're undervaluing the Chiefs' 2-3 year outlook. They are in cap/roster hell for the foreseeable future. Also, if Mahomes never returns to form, people will inevitably believe Reid/Spags were the primary reason for the Chiefs' success, and not Mahomes. Hell, we saw this with Brady/Belichick - and Brady had secured 6 rings at that point! It wasn't until his 7th that the narrative was solidified.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

Interesting...bc if the Chiefs don't give him quality WRs, he will leave. Sunday's game he could have walked up to each of those guys and placed the ball in their hands and they would have still dropped it.

Listen, I want Mahomes to stay here in KC, but if they don't change their ways, he will leave for an organization that will get him the tools he needs. Want to piss off a QB? Surround him with unreliable receivers.

Brady didn't have quality receivers for many years in New England.

[TheKnicksRule]

Originally Posted by tmar214

I think mahomes is far enough ahead when it comes to stats based off his first 5 seasons that even with a relatively pedestrian second half of his career he will cruise in to the top 5 in most major passing stats. I’d say his goat status for this generation of QBs is easily secured. It’s not easy to win the super bowl and people got spoiled by Mahomes stretch of wins. You look at the betting odds each year and no team is much better than 1/10 to win the superbowl. That would put mahomes most likely winning 0-1 more. Granted they still rate to be in the mix and he can always go on a brady type run.

I’d expect his card values to stick around the same for now on higher end but even among higher end holders so much is owned by speculators. Maybe they wait a season or two but if Mahomes has another not spectacular statistical
season next year and the chiefs aren’t in the super bowl his cards could have a long way to fall.

I think you may be overstating how likely Mahomes is to win another Super Bowl, especially in the near term. Even if he’s clearly the best QB of this generation, the actual probability of winning a ring in any given season is still extremely low. You mentioned that no team is meaningfully better than around 1-in-10 to win it all each year and that math works both ways. If you give Mahomes a generous ~10% chance per season, even over the next five years he’d still be more likely to win zero than to win one, just based on base rates.

Plus, the AFC is deep, margins are tiny, and Mahomes’ regression definitely doesnt help

[TheKnicksRule]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Brady didn't have quality receivers for many years in New England.

Yeah, that’s definitely true. Brady spent a lot of years in New England without anything close to elite receivers. Outside of the Moss run and later having Gronk, most of his targets were solid guys but not real No. 1 weapons.

For a long stretch he was throwing to guys like Deion Branch, David Patten, Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, Edelman before he became Edelman, Amendola, Brandon LaFell, Aaron Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins, etc. Good players, hard workers, but not the type of high-end receivers other star QBs got. It just makes what Brady did during those years even more impressive.

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Brady didn't have quality receivers for many years in New England.

Well, to be fair, Brady and Mahomes are in different stratospheres. You are comparing apples to potato chips.

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by TheKnicksRule

It’s a tough reality to accept, but it increasingly seems that Patrick Mahomes has been sliding for the past two seasons. Issues like underthrown deep balls, wobbly throws, and uneasiness while standing in a clean pocket have become more frequent. What’s especially unsettling is that this slump is happening just as he should be entering the prime of his career, yet the numbers suggest regression.

For instance, over the 2023–2024 seasons, his deep-ball completion rate”dropped to under 30%, a career low for that metric. That year he threw 27 touchdowns, yet also a career-high 14 interceptions and registered a passer rating of only 92.6.

In 2024 he was slightly better in some respects (67.5 % completion, 26 TDs, 11 INTs), but the underlying indicators, especially deep-throw reliability continued to decline to a point where he is one of the worst league-wide.

This downward trend appears to have carried into 2025. Through thirteen games, his completion rate dipped to just 63.1%, with 3,398 yards, 22 TDs, and 10 INTs.

With all that being said, I have major concern to his card value. What used to be baked in as virtually guaranteed. MVP honors, record-breaking seasons, Super Bowl wins now seems increasingly speculative. Unless there’s a dramatic turnaround, the long-term value are likely to face continued downward pressure. And that’s where things get even more concerning.

The reality is that this roster likely needs a minimum of two full years of rebuilding, not minor tweaks. The cap is tight, the core pieces aren’t getting younger, and outside of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, the long-term offensive weapons are huge question marks. Travis Kelce is nearing the end, the WR room still lacks a true WR1, and Andy Reid’s future is uncertain. A multi-year rebuild wouldn’t just hit the team, it risks dealing a major blow to Mahomes himself. Going from “the unquestioned face of the league” to grinding through 9–8 or 10–7 seasons and fighting for wildcard berths could shake even a player of his caliber. When you combine that with clear statistical regression, lower deep-ball accuracy, declining yards per attempt, and back-to-back seasons with double-digit interceptions. The psychological impact becomes part of the equation.

And the league isn’t waiting around. Josh Allen has arguably taken the lead in the best-QB-in-football conversation, and the next wave of talent isn’t slowing down. Justin Herbert continues to put up elite numbers, Jordan Love is ascending faster than expected, and rookies like Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are already flashing top-tier potential. The competition that Mahomes once seemed miles ahead of is now closing that gap rapidly.

So as bleak as it sounds, this isn’t just a temporary slump. This could be the beginning of a two-year identity reset for the Chiefs, and Mahomes may no longer be able to rely solely on raw talent to keep Kansas City afloat. The NFL is getting younger, faster, and deeper at QB, and unless the Chiefs overhaul their roster and offensive philosophy, they could easily slide from perennial No. 1 seeds to borderline wildcard contenders.

Originally Posted by TheKnicksRule

I think you may be overstating how likely Mahomes is to win another Super Bowl, especially in the near term. Even if he’s clearly the best QB of this generation, the actual probability of winning a ring in any given season is still extremely low. You mentioned that no team is meaningfully better than around 1-in-10 to win it all each year and that math works both ways. If you give Mahomes a generous ~10% chance per season, even over the next five years he’d still be more likely to win zero than to win one, just based on base rates.

Plus, the AFC is deep, margins are tiny, and Mahomes’ regression definitely doesnt help

Originally Posted by TheKnicksRule

People act like Allen has been some postseason disappointment when the truth is he’s been one of the best playoff quarterbacks of this era, period. The only reason anyone even questions him is because he keeps running into Mahomes and even then, he’s gone punch-for-punch with the guy in games where most QBs would’ve folded.

Jackson has his narrative. That’s separate. But putting Allen in that same bucket ignores everything he’s actually done when it matters. He’s not the guy holding Buffalo back, he’s the reason they’re in the conversation every year.

Originally Posted by TheKnicksRule

Honestly, with Mahomes looking a little more human lately, it feels like Allen is the one who’s actually primed to take that “next in line” crown if anyone does. Stafford’s résumé is solid, and another ring + an MVP would be huge for him, but he’s also at the tail end of his career.

Allen is the guy who still has the age, the ceiling, and the overall talent profile to stack big seasons if things finally break right around him. If Buffalo ever gives him a consistent run game and a defense that doesn’t collapse at the worst moments, he’s got as much upside as anyone in the league. He just needs those postseason signature wins.

So yeah, Stafford’s story would be great, but looking forward, Allen feels like the one best positioned to take over that “best QB of the generation not named Mahomes” slot if Mahomes really is entering a slower stretch.

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Hi, Delta!

NAILED IT lol. No one joins blowout anymore, let alone comes straight into the Mahomes thread right away and starts talking like they've been here for years lol. Welcome to the blocked list!

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Hi, Delta!

I am on the fence but leaning yes.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am on the fence but leaning yes.

It's so weird because their online disposition doesn't suggest Delta at all, but factoring in the date of membership, it has to be.

[bluebirds987]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

It's so weird because their online disposition doesn't suggest Delta at all, but factoring in the date of membership, it has to be.

It's Delta, probably from his laptop or home computer instead of his cell phone

[jjrpilot]

Delta is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack baby lol! He couldn't stay away...the addiction is strong.

A brand new user who joined 2 days ago...jumps into the Mahomes thread praising Josh Allen. LOL.

Gosh I love Blowout hahaha