Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Earlsnake07]

Game played out exactly as I thought it would. KC's offense this year has been a shell of itself. PM will have a good stats game against weak opponents, but be mediocre against higher ranked defenses.

Ive been a season ticket holder since KC hired Reid and still love my Chiefs, but the product we have seen all year is not the same.

Reid going for it on 4th down (IMO) showed that he doesn't trust his own style of coaching anymore. The way the defense was playing the 2nd half and to make that decision at that time was brutal.

KC will have a top 15 pick, a 3rd place schedule and a massive chip going into next season.

[Scottish Punk]

Brady was great, no doubt. He did have the advantage of being a really sad sack division for long stretches. I don't think the AFC West (aside from the Raiders) are going to get that bad. Flip side is that Patriots were consistently getting first place schedules for non division games so it does even out a bit.

Assuming Mahomes is just going to win 5-6 Super Bowls is just folly from the beginning. He is 30, so he does have some good years left even though the athleticism is probably peaking. Chiefs desperately need to overhaul the RB room. Might be the worst in football. They are all free agents so I would expect a whole new tandom next year. They need a RB that can get more than 3 yards.

[pinnacle06]

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

This season could possibly be the worst for Chiefs led Mahomes, but time will tell. Brady led his Patriots and Bucs to 10+ wins 19 years out of 23 and the “worst” Brady year (aside from his injury season) was his final season. Brady dominated the NFL for nearly 2 decades, losing 7 games 1 time (2002) and never missed the playoffs as the starter. (wasn’t starter in 2000 and injured in 2008). Again, Brady’s worst team year as a starter was 2022 but they still made the playoffs.
People can compare Mahomes to Brady and it’s fair but Mahomes possibly missing the playoffs in only year 9 will certainly hurt. Mahomes is amazing no doubt, and I get the “he needs weapons” but he did throw 3 picks yesterday in a must win game.


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The Brady Mahomes comparison is pretty much a mute point at this point in time no?

[Tea10]

I keep seeing the RB points. This team is not 6-7 because of RB. And RBs don't dictate the majority of running success. That would be the OL and scheme/coaching/passing threat. There's a reason why Barkley rushed for 2k+ yards last year in PHI despite it being year 7 after a torn ACL and meniscus, after 6 seasons where his best was 1,300 yards twice and barely over 1k yards to make it three times breaking the 1k mark before.

You can put your favorite RBs on a team with a bad OL and a crap offense/scheme and they won't do anything. Put Derrick Henry or Barkley on the Raiders or Titans 2025 and they'll look like bums or just average. Ashton Jeanty is averaging 3.5 yards a carry and is 21st in the league in rushing. I guarantee. If you put him on the Ravens or Bills or even maybe Patriots (mediocre run blocking OL) he would be considered some elite star RB in his rookie season.

The problem is not RB. Mahomes has looked terrible all year per his standards and objectively awful last night. The only solution here has to be OL and receiving corps. The Chiefs OL has been mediocre this season. Not top 5-10 like they were for the dynastic run prior (minus catastrophic injuries). And the receiving corps is filled with WR2-3s and an aging, washed TE. There is not a single star or stud receiver.

I said this months ago here but: Worthy is a great WR3, maybe a good WR2 if your TE is your 1st/2nd best target. Rice came back, he's looked good, but is he a WR1? A plus WR1? I don't think so. He would be a good WR2 on a good roster. Brown has done a lot, and so has Thornton suprisingly, but they both are WR3-4s on any team. Kelce has put up nice counting numbers, yardage, but he looks like molasses. He's lost a step. He can't win and get open. No one on this roster is threatening. Worthy is fast yeah, so was Mecole Hardman, he's a rich man's Hardman basically.

At the end of the day, that is the problem. Reid likely cannot run the offense he wants to without his Hill or DeSean Jackson type, there's no T.O. or Vincent Jackson for him, and the star TE isn't a star anymore.

I've seen this before, multiple times, with Brady and the Patriots. So at the end of the day, it is definitely the issue in my mind. But it's also somewhat excuse making here on behalf of Mahomes. Rice-Worthy-Hollywood + Kelce and a mediocre OL isn't justification to be that bad and sit at 6-7.

[Jeter1020]

I don’t think Brady should be in the conversation right now. Montana is the more realistic one and Patty just needs one more ring and he’ll be regarded as the second best qb


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[Tea10]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Brady was great, no doubt. He did have the advantage of being a really sad sack division for long stretches. I don't think the AFC West (aside from the Raiders) are going to get that bad. Flip side is that Patriots were consistently getting first place schedules for non division games so it does even out a bit.

Assuming Mahomes is just going to win 5-6 Super Bowls is just folly from the beginning. He is 30, so he does have some good years left even though the athleticism is probably peaking. Chiefs desperately need to overhaul the RB room. Might be the worst in football. They are all free agents so I would expect a whole new tandom next year. They need a RB that can get more than 3 yards.

I feel like that's a fallacy, I'd like to see someone crunch the numbers on that because I've seen it before in the 2017-2020 range and it just wasn't true. The Jets are one of the worst franchises in NFL history overall, but they did make the AFCCG twice during Brady's career. The Dolphins and Bills made some playoffs here and there, but I'd love to see the overall win% for the division ex-NE and for the AFC West ex-KC from 2018-2025.

The Broncos only just put up two good seasons, they were bad to terrible from 2018-2023. The Raiders have been atrocious. Chargers also haven't been "great", they've put up multiple 5 win seasons, 7-9, 9-8 in the new 17 game format. The AFC West has been pretty trash through Mahomes' career so far.

[KardsC1]

Initially yes, a lot of people bought into mahomes thinking he may get to 7 rings…but I assure you a lot of folks buying high end (6 figure cards) are not that stupid …mahomes does NOT need to surpass Brady’s rings…of course doing so would be nice (and still on the table as Brady didn’t win his 4th til he was 37)…but point is mahomes is already a widely collectable star…in nba it’s MJ, Kobe, LB, curry…in nfl it’s only Brady mahomes basically …his values will move up n down but not substantially..and he has 8 or more years left to add to his legacy

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Initially yes, a lot of people bought into mahomes thinking he may get to 7 rings…but I assure you a lot of folks buying high end (6 figure cards) are not that stupid …mahomes does NOT need to surpass Brady’s rings…of course doing so would be nice (and still on the table as Brady didn’t win his 4th til he was 37)…but point is mahomes is already a widely collectable star…in nba it’s MJ, Kobe, LB, curry…in nfl it’s only Brady mahomes basically …his values will move up n down but not substantially..and he has 8 or more years left to add to his legacy

the concerning thing when folks invest heavily into a player who is not a widely agreed upon GOAT of his sport is the risk of second half career let down. It can happen due to a team regressing, injury, skill degredation etc.

a perfect example would be Mike Trout. Rings in MLB are not nearly as important as in NFL/NBA when it comes to collectors and Trout was widely considered to be a future inner circle HOF member and then around age 30 the injuries started compiling. now he is an afterthought to Ohtani/Judge.

If the Chiefs/Mahomes slide continues, it will not take long for the next newest/greatest to slide in and take all of the air out of the room. It seems to be a cycle in the hobby.

Now, if people are simply collecting Mahomes because they love to watch him play, none of this matters. It really only will effect those heavily invested with an eye on future returns.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Initially yes, a lot of people bought into mahomes thinking he may get to 7 rings…but I assure you a lot of folks buying high end (6 figure cards) are not that stupid …mahomes does NOT need to surpass Brady’s rings…of course doing so would be nice (and still on the table as Brady didn’t win his 4th til he was 37)…but point is mahomes is already a widely collectable star…in nba it’s MJ, Kobe, LB, curry…in nfl it’s only Brady mahomes basically …his values will move up n down but not substantially..and he has 8 or more years left to add to his legacy

I do agree with this. In the hobby it’s Brady and Mahomes

Just like in the nba it’s Jordan, LeBron, Kobe and Curry


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[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

I don’t think Brady should be in the conversation right now. Montana is the more realistic one and Patty just needs one more ring and he’ll be regarded as the second best qb


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Nah, Joe never lost, let alone get his doors blown off, twice.

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by BostonNut

Nah, Joe never lost, let alone get his doors blown off, twice.

Mahomes is past Joe if he gets his fourth due to Mahomes having more league MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs


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[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Tea10

The problem is not RB. Mahomes has looked terrible all year per his standards and objectively awful last night. The only solution here has to be OL and receiving corps. The Chiefs OL has been mediocre this season. Not top 5-10 like they were for the dynastic run prior (minus catastrophic injuries). And the receiving corps is filled with WR2-3s and an aging, washed TE. There is not a single star or stud receiver.

It's not the OL and WR room. It's everything. Just too many excuses here.

Josh Allen's roster (and WR room) is equally, if not more, terrible, and they're 9-4.

J. Love has no #1 WR or TE and the Packers are 9-3-1

A. Rodgers (who is 42, by the way), just dragged the Steelers to a win where they had 36 total rushing yards because he can't get under center with his broken wrist.

Who are Bo Nix's weapons, exactly?

Maye looks like Brady 2.0 with a past-his-prime Diggs and a cast of misfits.

Who can even name a player on the 9-4 Bears?

You get the point. The Chiefs are stale, and not even their superstars are performing well. Time to tear it down.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

Mahomes is past Joe if he gets his fourth due to Mahomes having more league MVPs and Super Bowl MVPs


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So now we're combining MVP's with SB MVP's for the all-time list? Hmmm...

[BostonNut]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

So now we're combining MVP's with SB MVP's for the all-time list? Hmmm...

Dayum…ain’t nobody catching Brady!

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

So now we're combining MVP's with SB MVP's for the all-time list? Hmmm...

I’m just combing accolades as a whole picture. And yes Boston is right. Not likely someone catches Brady soon


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[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Jeter1020

I’m just combing accolades as a whole picture. And yes Boston is right. Not likely someone catches Brady soon


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Ok. So, currently:

1. Brady - 8
2. Manning - 6
T3. Mahomes - 5
T3. Montana - 5
T3. Rodgers - 5

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Ok. So, currently:

1. Brady - 7
2. Manning - 6
T3. Mahomes - 5
T3. Montana - 5
T3. Rodgers - 5

Combing the whole picture. Which also means how they performed historically in the playoffs. Something manning did worse than Mahomes and Montana. Also Manning being down in rings to both.


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[pejc300]

The Chiefs (likely) missing the playoffs is not as big of a deal as people are making it in terms of Mahomes legacy. If they squeak into the wildcard and lose their first game it's not like somehow it makes the season better. At the end of his career no one will say "remember that one year that they didn't make the playoffs?" The only reason people might reference is if the say "remember that one year the Chiefs didn't make the playoffs? Man, that lit a fire in Pat and he never wanted to taste it again and it led him to 2 more championships."

I agree with what 2010GBPackers and others are saying...the really important part about this season is how the second half of his career goes. The trajectory has not been great. So, either's it's him (which would be a very not good thing for his hobby value long-term) or it's not so much him as the whole system and a reboot will get him right back where he needs to be. The question we all have to ask (or at least those of us with financial skin in the game), is if you were forced to bet $10,000 one way or the other, which way are you going? Are you betting that he is on a permanent downward trajectory and will never be a superstar again (a la Trout)? Or are you betting these last 2 years aren't telling the whole story and he's got a great second act ahead of him.


After seeing him absolutely dominate the league from 2018-2022 and after seeing him play super man in so many big playoff games, I think most of us are having a hard time believing he doesn't still possess those skills. My eye test is telling me he is headed downward - so many missed throws, terrible deep balls, bad decisions, etc. And yet, my soul just refuses to believe this is the end for him. He works his ass off in the off-season and still seems to want greatness. I think a little extra rest this season will do wonders. But time will tell!

[daveyc1]

Mahomes trajectory looks poor at this point. He has not led the league in a statistical category since 2022. the last 3 years should have been his athletic prime. about age 27-30. next year looks like it may be a bust because of the cap and roster weakness.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

It's not the OL and WR room. It's everything. Just too many excuses here.

Josh Allen's roster (and WR room) is equally, if not more, terrible, and they're 9-4...

You get the point. The Chiefs are stale, and not even their superstars are performing well. Time to tear it down.

First off, to clarify, I am a Patriots fan who has lived in Boston or the Boston area my entire life. >50% of my collection is Tom Brady in cards. I actually have a PSA 10 Donruss The Rookies Mahomes' RC and listed it on eBay 1-2 weeks ago prior to this, unfortuantely didn't sell.

But I agree with you. My main point was that calling "RB" the issue is incorrect. PFF said RBs don't matter years ago, they weren't completely right but they're close. And at least you can definitely get a good+ RB in the 2nd-4th round or cheaply in trade/FA at any time. Hunt/Pacheco kind of suck but they aren't the reason why the run game or the offense sucks.

The Bills OL is top 3-5. They might be top 2-3 this year. But I totally agree between Keon bum-a-Coleman and Kincaid being out for awhile, even fully healthy it's like a C- to C level WR/TE room. It's worse than KC's. Agreed. But to respond to Davey and others:

1. Mahomes legacy has already been cemented. He's already a HoFer despite any outcome further.

2. I don't think he magically just sucks now, but I do think what I said years ago holds true - Reid/scheme/talent was a big part of what was happening.

3. 100% speculation even with Mahomes. Again he's cemented a floor as he is a top 5 QB of all-time already, arguably, probably. But his cards are priced in to compete for the GOAT spot or come close or beat that. Just like any current player/prospecting/speculating asset.

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Mahomes trajectory looks poor at this point. He has not led the league in a statistical category since 2022. the last 3 years should have been his athletic prime. about age 27-30. next year looks like it may be a bust because of the cap and roster weakness.

Yeah I don't know if that's fair. I think he was clearly the #1 QB in the league you'd choose to start a game/expansion team until this current moment and it's still a question. He has had a down year, terrible year per his standards. We saw a similar thing with 2019 Tom Brady Patriots last season.

Brady was threw 153 passes to Edelman with an arthritic knee that season for 1117 yards. His next best target was James White at 645 yards. And the 3rd best target and 2nd best WR was Phillip Dorsett with 397 yards.

That was the year with Sanu and Meyers as a UDFA rookie. Point being, I didn't believe Brady was finally done there. And I don't think Mahomes is done here or on some landslide trajectory down. But I do agree, and I saw this coming, that the Chiefs roster would have problems and it wouldn't be deep SB runs and appearances almost every year. Just like what happened to the Patriots on and off.

I absolutely do think Mahomes' probability risk for injury is high though. And it's cliche' to say he will get hurt, but the guy already subluxated his knee cap and got extremely lucky to have no real ligament damage. I don't think he will have the same longevity at all. But I do think the Chiefs will likely turn the roster around and they'll be a top SB contender again in a few years, why not next year either depending on some moves. The league has terrible QB talent currently and we can all see the parity levels now. Who knows who's winning the SB this year. There's like 5-10 credible predictions instead of 2-4.

[chompie99]

Originally Posted by Tea10

First off, to clarify, I am a Patriots fan who has lived in Boston or the Boston area my entire life. >50% of my collection is Tom Brady in cards. I actually have a PSA 10 Donruss The Rookies Mahomes' RC and listed it on eBay 1-2 weeks ago prior to this, unfortuantely didn't sell.

But I agree with you. My main point was that calling "RB" the issue is incorrect. PFF said RBs don't matter years ago, they weren't completely right but they're close. And at least you can definitely get a good+ RB in the 2nd-4th round or cheaply in trade/FA at any time. Hunt/Pacheco kind of suck but they aren't the reason why the run game or the offense sucks.

The Bills OL is top 3-5. They might be top 2-3 this year. But I totally agree between Keon bum-a-Coleman and Kincaid being out for awhile, even fully healthy it's like a C- to C level WR/TE room. It's worse than KC's. Agreed. But to respond to Davey and others:

1. Mahomes legacy has already been cemented. He's already a HoFer despite any outcome further.

2. I don't think he magically just sucks now, but I do think what I said years ago holds true - Reid/scheme/talent was a big part of what was happening.

3. 100% speculation even with Mahomes. Again he's cemented a floor as he is a top 5 QB of all-time already, arguably, probably. But his cards are priced in to compete for the GOAT spot or come close or beat that. Just like any current player/prospecting/speculating asset.

This is a well-balanced perspective from a non-Chiefs fan. Appreciated.

I’m a Chiefs fan, not just Mahomes. Between Reid/Mahomes/Kelce/Jones, they helped change the trajectory of a team that had not won a title since 1970 (SB IV).

Definitely need to be changes sorry to say. Really thought once they got Rice and Worthy back it would help more than it did. So I missed that one. Obviously more complex than that.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by pejc300

The question we all have to ask (or at least those of us with financial skin in the game), is if you were forced to bet $10,000 one way or the other, which way are you going? Are you betting that he is on a permanent downward trajectory and will never be a superstar again (a la Trout)? Or are you betting these last 2 years aren't telling the whole story and he's got a great second act ahead of him.

This is where I'm at for two reasons:

1) See daveyc1's quote below. It is very, very odd for a top tier QB to flash his HoF potential early, then regress during his prime-aged years. It's especially true of a QB since you should be masterfully marrying your athletic skills with your game intellect.

2) He relies sooo much on his ability to extend plays and get crucial first downs and that will be diminishing in the near future. His inability to throw on-schedule passes consistently has me worried that I overrated him too early. He will not be able to get away with 1/5th of his spectacular plays 3 years from now. He needs to figure out how to play differently, which will be incredibly difficult to do after playing this style for 8 years.

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Mahomes trajectory looks poor at this point. He has not led the league in a statistical category since 2022. the last 3 years should have been his athletic prime. about age 27-30. next year looks like it may be a bust because of the cap and roster weakness.

The cap considerations and roster depth will take more than 1 year to reconstruct, IMO. This will have to be a long-term plan in order for it to succeed. No Band-Aid fixes.

Originally Posted by Tea10

1. Mahomes legacy has already been cemented. He's already a HoFer despite any outcome further.

2. I don't think he magically just sucks now, but I do think what I said years ago holds true - Reid/scheme/talent was a big part of what was happening.

3. 100% speculation even with Mahomes. Again he's cemented a floor as he is a top 5 QB of all-time already, arguably, probably. But his cards are priced in to compete for the GOAT spot or come close or beat that. Just like any current player/prospecting/speculating asset.

1. I agree wholeheartedly. The Mahomies should not be too depressed. Their current situation was always going to happen - though many held on to their irrational beliefs for far too long. There were some posters in here (who were not trolls) that could tell things were going in the opposite direction in mid-2024. Regardless, he's a first ballot, inner ring HoF if he drops dead tomorrow.

2. Mahomies may soon understand how much the Reid/Spags schemes and coaching played into all of the success the Chiefs had. Mahomes rightfully gets to claim his fair share, but IMO, he was dropped into the perfect scenario.

3. I'm not totally sure where his prices go from here, long-term. Obviously, yes, in the short-term, they're going to drop pretty hard. But long-term? I think he's still a solid buy if you're willing to hold for 10-20 years.

[daveyc1]

I think they should keep Spags. the defense is well coached i think. not sure if Andy has run his course or not. he made a really questionable call last night.

i still cannot believe he went for it 4th and 2 on his own 31

[pejc300]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I think they should keep Spags. the defense is well coached i think. not sure if Andy has run his course or not. he made a really questionable call last night.

i still cannot believe he went for it 4th and 2 on his own 31

I think he was feeling the pressure, to be honest. Over the past 2 years (minus a few exceptions this year), they have always made the conservative choice. Field goals inside the 5 time and time again, punting from the 50 on 4th and 2s over and over again despite Mahomes begging them to go for it. This ideology finally started to catch up with them, so they shifted a bit.

The finally started going for it again this year with some success, but I could tell that Andy did not want to go for it, and for the first time in a long time I was thinking "you've got to punt this." I think he caved to the idea that there was just no way Patrick was going to fail 3 times in a row, and probably felt bad that he was putting the game on his defense AGAIN, and it was absolutely the wrong call with the way the defense was playing. I honestly think he did not want to go for it, but was pressured into it (which is not an excuse because he's the head coach and has to live with it). The play they ran was absolute ass, and it was rushed. It was not what you wanted there.