24-25 The Cup is coming

[Nutcracker33]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

Seems he is in a 5 case break with 3 shield auto's, Celebrini RPA 71/99, Cossa 03-04 1 of 1 and another Celebrini auto /25.

UD may have juiced up more than just the personal today.

I need to get on the UD free love program

just saying, i dont think he hit a Bedard until like 15 cases in last year. not defending the guy, but just putting things in prespective.

But I DID forget he pulled the bedard true shield lol at the end.

[FatButcher]

Honestly he opens so much of this, the law of averages should dictate he gets some massive cards.

Apparently before the run he was on with shields there was an 8 case run with a few Hutson's and not much else at all.

[Nutcracker33]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

Honestly he opens so much of this, the law of averages should dictate he gets some massive cards.

Apparently before the run he was on with shields there was an 8 case run with a few Hutson's and not much else at all.

plus the shield/ shield autos arent that big anyway, Halonen, Boeser, Kyle Connor ????

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Nutcracker33

plus the shield/ shield autos arent that big anyway, Halonen, Boeser, Kyle Connor ????

I think he pulled another one later, Eklund. Not like Backyard Breaks (why are they doing hockey?) apparently pulling Ovi and Celebrini 03-04 shields.

[Ianhatcher]

Hit a Celebrini Rookie Gold Spectrum Auto /36 and a Rookie Gear Auto /24 in a case break with Mojo Breaks. Have the Sharks in one more break but I'm good with this product.

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by Grave252

Backyard pulled both the Ovi 1/1 record inscribed auto as well as the Celebrini shield auto today. Two of the biggest chases gone.

Not true shield apparently - the Exquisite

[gorillaz]

Idk if it’s an unpopular opinion or not, but I really can’t stand the way the true RPAs look.

[ThatGuyPal]

I truly don’t care enough to continue pushing the narrative but if you believe you have the same odds of pulling all these from one break yourself (not joining one break buying boxes)and can afford it I implore you to test your luck lol I have a feeling it won’t go as well. We are talking one break here not 7 days cumulative hits after him breaking daily lmao


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[FatButcher]

This was a 5 case break, but all of that was from the first 4 cases. I can't imagine anyone else getting this kind of run.

[Nutcracker33]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

I truly don’t care enough to continue pushing the narrative but if you believe you have the same odds of pulling all these from one break yourself (not joining one break buying boxes)and can afford it I implore you to test your luck lol I have a feeling it won’t go as well. We are talking one break here not 7 days cumulative hits after him breaking daily lmao


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again, the only thing that is worth a damn is the Celebrini, nothing else. yea is cool to pull 3 or 4 shield auto in 5 cases, but they are all pretty much B or C tier guys, and it would take away your case hit spot. Stankoven doesnt sell for crap, and would hardly cover 2 boxes IMO.

Also, even if I want to test my luck and can afford it, would I rather drop 45K on just the Sharks in all the case breaks I find?

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Nutcracker33

again, the only thing that is worth a damn is the Celebrini, nothing else. yea is cool to pull 3 or 4 shield auto in 5 cases, but they are all pretty much B or C tier guys, and it would take away your case hit spot. Stankoven doesnt sell for crap, and would hardly cover 2 boxes IMO.

Also, even if I want to test my luck and can afford it, would I rather drop 45K on just the Sharks in all the case breaks I find?

Not sure why you don't think the non-star shield autos are "worth a damn"? I sold the Kyrou non-auto shield for just under $1k last year, I would think all but the rookie would cover a box+.

Since Ovi patch autos don't cover a box, I'd say those shields are still very solid pulls.

[Nutcracker33]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

Not sure why you don't think the non-star shield autos are "worth a damn"? I sold the Kyrou non-auto shield for just under $1k last year, I would think all but the rookie would cover a box+.

Since Ovi patch autos don't cover a box, I'd say those shields are still very solid pulls.

Of course they are cool pulls, but cases are now approaching 10k each, and the post was saying to see if I would get the same amount of “luck” by open 5 cases myself to see if I get near the same type of hit.

I am just saying is not all that, cause of the tier of players that was pulled. There are comps on comparable players and you will see what I mean.

In comparison, check out the 50 case break by Dave and Adam’s (they post the highlights on their fb page), and see what you would realistically get by spending the same amount of money on the Sharks.

I am sure the photo is used as marketing to promote his breaks, but value wise, outside of the Celebrini, I would think, 5-6k total?

But he beat the odds for sure, not denying that.

[FatButcher]

Originally Posted by Nutcracker33

Of course they are cool pulls, but cases are now approaching 10k each, and the post was saying to see if I would get the same amount of “luck” by open 5 cases myself to see if I get near the same type of hit.

I am just saying is not all that, cause of the tier of players that was pulled. There are comps on comparable players and you will see what I mean.

In comparison, check out the 50 case break by Dave and Adam’s (they post the highlights on their fb page), and see what you would realistically get by spending the same amount of money on the Sharks.

I am sure the photo is used as marketing to promote his breaks, but value wise, outside of the Celebrini, I would think, 5-6k total?

But he beat the odds for sure, not denying that.

The real problem, is the pricing of the product makes everything short of the "product hits" a loss. The buy in to the case means getting a common shield auto and some good rookie RPA means its still a massive L in terms of ROI.

I know it's not unique to hockey, but still not fun.

[rizzeedizzee]

Everyone is panic buying, fearing prices will go up more and more. And they might. But will they keep selling, both alone and as part of breaks? Everyone thinks prices will stay high or go higher, until they don't. The tier B and C breakers I messaged are saying they're using this to make $$ on what they prebought, but will not touch it now.

[ThatGuyPal]

It doesn’t really matter if boxes sell alone, gamblers gonna gamble and will always enter breaks for a product like this. Don’t let the Sharks or Blackhawks make the playoffs there will be breaks like this was a new release again. Just look at GP’s site, the two breaks sold out, team random and player random because “what if I get Sharks/Hawks or Celebrini/Bedard?” Team select may dry up but breaks will always fill one way or another.

Prices aren’t gonna keep going up and I haven’t seen that really either, a lot of people just assumed and forget it’s 2025 not 2018 and boxes wouldn’t be as high but most pre-orders especially near the end are around what it’s at now. The reason tier B and C breakers are moving on is because like you said their tier B and C breakers most of them can’t fill breaks especially on a product like the Cup beyond the intial rush so why would they re-up at any price? Add in two weeks Engrained Icons is out they’ll move on to that and need customers to have money lol a product like that is much more up their alley but compared to guys used to just buying into S1/2 it’s also expensive so it’s a lot in one month if you’re a tier b or c breaker. Maybe our definitions are different but for me most tier b or c breakers just break their intial allocation etc or supply and move on. The only time I saw the little guys really scramble for more product even at higher prices was MAYBE some for Bedard S2

[Nutcracker33]

Originally Posted by FatButcher

The real problem, is the pricing of the product makes everything short of the "product hits" a loss. The buy in to the case means getting a common shield auto and some good rookie RPA means its still a massive L in terms of ROI.

I know it's not unique to hockey, but still not fun.

To be fair, that’s why breaking works on a product like this, buying a single team, even on a 5 caser, hitting a shield auto of those guys will be a win on the most part.

Also, if you have the disposable income to open a case or cases yourself, ROI will probably be the last thing on your mind.

I just dislike how breakers pump up their hits like they are worth millions but realistically they are only 4-500 bucks but I also understand breakers need to sell their breaks.

[ZappBrannigan]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Everyone is panic buying, fearing prices will go up more and more. And they might. But will they keep selling, both alone and as part of breaks? Everyone thinks prices will stay high or go higher, until they don't. The tier B and C breakers I messaged are saying they're using this to make $$ on what they prebought, but will not touch it now.

Nobody is panic buying.

[Soxrule111]

Originally Posted by ZappBrannigan

Nobody is panic buying.

I would say Panic buying the opposite way. (for a product like this) Get in now before secondary market goes down. First couple Rookies might go for $50-$100 and settle at $10-$25 for the scrubs

[rizzeedizzee]

Originally Posted by Soxrule111

I would say Panic buying the opposite way. (for a product like this) Get in now before secondary market goes down. First couple Rookies might go for $50-$100 and settle at $10-$25 for the scrubs

Considering the amount of this that's been broken, and the first break cards getting into recipients' hands today (or at least today is the first day I got mine), the markets are about to be flooded, and then the race to the bottom starts for the C and D RPAs, and even some Bs. Great deals will soon be obtainable.

What I wonder is if more than half of the entire print run will have been opened within a week of release. There are roughly 80 of the /249 RPAs, and then the seven /99 rookies, plus a /24 of each of the /249s and 99s. If - big if - my math is correct, that's roughly 23,000 tins.

[ThatGuyPal]

Celebrini RPA /24 sold for 51K Canadian lmao. I get he’s good but sheesh, he’s not exactly lighting up the stats beyond points. Just stupid money in the hobby now encouraging others to gamble the little money they have to try and get a sale like this

[stoopid]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Celebrini RPA /24 sold for 51K Canadian lmao. I get he’s good but sheesh, he’s not exactly lighting up the stats beyond points. Just stupid money in the hobby now encouraging others to gamble the little money they have to try and get a sale like this

In defense of his play -- he's a solid all around player with excellent offensive instincts. He's worthy of the praise with seemingly endless potential.

'Speculating' on rookies for past 40 years in card collecting has been the primary driver behind pricing in the hobby (all sports). I see no change in that trend.

It's almost never (or is it, indeed, NEVER?) a good idea to buy the top cards for the top players from the top set weeks within that set's release. It's a bit tough to gauge as the cards don't often come back up for sale in a short enough time to see the immediate trend, but if looking at cards for the same player that transact more often this is always the case.

The question here should be: is /24 low enough serial to warrant this price? That's an $888,000 USD market cap for just this /24 serial numbered card. No Hart, Ross, Cup, etc. One major injury away from all that money evaporating. <-- This isn't specific to Celebrini, as has been discussed endlessly here and Reddit, etc about buying into rookie/young player hype.

[ThatGuyPal]

Yeah but there’s a diff between speculating rookies and the stupid money in the hobby as I mentioned, not exactly the same thing. Hate to keep giving em promo but GP posted similar Cup cards of superstars and it proves me point exactly.

To his play he’s good, but again if this was back in the day he’d have to be literally breaking records to get sales like that. Congrats to the seller like I said now people can cut back on X-Mas presents for their kids and try gambling on a box themselves and see if they can turn a cup box into $51K Canadian or whatever that is American

[mclaw131]

Originally Posted by rizzeedizzee

Not true shield apparently - the Exquisite

The True shield auto has now been pulled, on Saturday night with Mamabreaks, a never-hockey breaker with a large eBay/Fanatics following. So the two shields pulled by Backyard and Mama...

[Satan]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

I get he’s good but sheesh, he’s not exactly lighting up the stats beyond points.

"Beyond points" lmao... what else do people care about, corsi?

He's 19 years old and 2nd in the league in points... and somehow the Sharks are in a playoff spot. Of course his market is on fire.

[odjickfan]

In my opinion, Celebrini is much better than Lafreniere. Anyone remember the 10k bounty on the YG HG during Covid?