Patrick Mahomes Prices

[pejc300]

And for all the greatness that Drew Brees was, he went to 1 Super Bowl in 20 years. And he had a playoff record of .500.

What's my point? I'm not sure.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by pejc300

And for all the greatness that Drew Brees was, he went to 1 Super Bowl in 20 years. And he had a playoff record of .500.

What's my point? I'm not sure.

Indeed, and the MVP everyone wanted him to win Patrick Mahomes took and rightly so in 2018. I am the biggest Brees fan ever but I was never overly confident with the ball and a chance to win that he was going to seal the deal. Felt good? Yea..... overly confident like Brady/Montana/Mahomes...... not even close.

Brees also had some pretty bad luck during the latter years on the really talented Saints teams..... but ultimately what happened is history and that is the resume. The super elite just find a way more often than not and are in opportunities more often to have luck go their way. With half of the career TD passes of Brees and less than half the years of play...... the clutch play and MVPs put Mahomes way ahead of Brees for me, sadly

[TSonn]

Just want to point out... who did Mahomes throw to twice on that final drive when they needed something big? Rice both times.

2nd and 13 from their own endzone? Hits Rice on a slant for 47 yards.
4th and 3 with the game on the line? Hits Rice on a slant for 19 yards.

That dude was suspended the first 6 weeks when they went 3-3 with one-score losses to LAC, PHI, and JAX.

[imbluestreak23]

Nobody should be upset about where KC is at. This is shaping up to be an incredibly advantageous year to run through the playoffs.

Likey playoff games:
-At Denver
-At Indy
-At NE/Jacksonville/Bal/Buff

Compare that to having to go through a guaranteed 2/3 between facing Lamar/Allen/Burrow, there is a reason why they are #3 in SB favorites despite being 10th in the AFC

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by TSonn

Just want to point out... who did Mahomes throw to twice on that final drive when they needed something big? Rice both times.

2nd and 13 from their own endzone? Hits Rice on a slant for 47 yards.
4th and 3 with the game on the line? Hits Rice on a slant for 19 yards.

That dude was suspended the first 6 weeks when they went 3-3 with one-score losses to LAC, PHI, and JAX.

Rice might not be good at driving but he's a great receiver

[Tea10]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

Indeed, and the MVP everyone wanted him to win Patrick Mahomes took and rightly so in 2018. I am the biggest Brees fan ever but I was never overly confident with the ball and a chance to win that he was going to seal the deal. Felt good? Yea..... overly confident like Brady/Montana/Mahomes...... not even close.

Brees also had some pretty bad luck during the latter years on the really talented Saints teams..... but ultimately what happened is history and that is the resume. The super elite just find a way more often than not and are in opportunities more often to have luck go their way. With half of the career TD passes of Brees and less than half the years of play...... the clutch play and MVPs put Mahomes way ahead of Brees for me, sadly

Might be a hot take, but I think MVP awards are a bit of a joke. On some level.

[tjforce]

First time checking in since the game yesterday.

On the Chiefs front, I'll still hold my take on the season until after Thursday's game.

On the Mahomes front: leading the NFL in passing yards per game and total yards per game. It aint always pretty but man this guy carries a heavy lead.

On the Blowout front reading through the last few pages: A few of you are just embarrassments.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by tjforce

First time checking in since the game yesterday.

On the Chiefs front, I'll still hold my take on the season until after Thursday's game.

On the Mahomes front: leading the NFL in passing yards per game and total yards per game. It aint always pretty but man this guy carries a heavy lead.

On the Blowout front reading through the last few pages: A few of you are just embarrassments.

Takes one to know one

[wiper]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

The bolded comment is starting to get really annoying. If people really think passing the football in the NFL today is more difficult than 5,10,15,20 years ago I'd suggest they stop posting in this forum or any other football forum.

Passing yards are down first and foremost because the players today and over the past 10 years through college are not elite pocket passers for the most part, period.

The passing ability from the likes of peak Peyton Manning/Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees do not compare whatsoever to the likes of Allen/Jackson/Mahomes/Hurts. This is not meant to upset anyone, it's pure fact. It's exemplified in the fact that suddenly everyone wants to talk about QBR.... the wonderful stat that takes rushing into account. Great, so now we have an excuse as to why overall passing volume stats are down....... yet plain ole QR rating which takes into account completion percentage/yards per attempt/tds/int as a gross cumulative formula somehow isn't meaningful anymore. Rating as a gross metric is perfectly fine over time, unlucky int's or poorly thrown td's even out over time.

Patrick Mahomes has a QR rating of about 93-94 for the past 3 years..... THREE YEARS. It was about 106 average for his first 5 years. As a reflection of that efficiency his QBR was an average of the mid 70's which is on the level of All Pro and MVP type play ... which is what we saw, and we know Patrick is a great athlete and can maneuver well and is willing to run. That is included in the QBR

Brady/Brees/Manning.... largely they were statues in the pocket, they didn't benefit any by running on QBR metrics. Brady had a season of 87, many many seasons in the 70's, and a season of 73 at 44 years old with the running ability of a 1000 pound statue.

Manning averaged a QBR of like 75 in the 10 years the stat went back..... had multiple in the 80's.... and he had the mobility of that same 1000 pund statue

Brees had huge volume stats, but just like the aforementioned, he had many seasons in the 70's and multiple in the 80's. Although a better athlete than the first two, he was never a threat to run ... so like the first two, these massive QBR's are as passers only.

These individuals had/have better QBR metrics than the likes of Allen/Jackson/Hurts/ and are better than Mahomes too for their best years....... while all of these guys now are either elite runners or are threats to take off for 20 plus whenever. You have to schematically plan for them, you have to spy or double spy them based on situations. This gives weaker coverage looks and ultimately they run so well they still get theirs on the ground.

And still............... with easier coverages to face and being far superior true athletes who score a bunch of rushing TD's and accumulate significant rushing yards....... they don't consistently have QBR's through the peak years that Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees did.

This isn't me bringing up ghosts to compare to players today. It's me telling you that QB development for players to be elite passers in the pocket is a shell of what it used to. It's easier to put an elite athlete at QB at younger age and have him rush for 80 yards and throw for 175 in middle school than it is to develop the likes of a Peyton Manning/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers/or Tom Brady and have that take a decade or more. Coaches want to win now and the dual threat QB is the easiest way to do that.

This isn't some secret..... and for people to keep ignoring it like it doesn't exist is inexcusable if you want to be taken seriously in a real debate/argument where actual context and facts matter.

Passing yards are down because players can't pass as well... period. Less attempts due to more rush attempts and rush TD means less pass yards....... In Mahomes case this year a lot of yards with his worst completion percentage of his career is indicative of being inferior as a passer compared to the other 4 guys mentioned from the 00s and 10s.......... that is indicative of having a rating of 93 this year.

Patrick Mahomes is a top 4-8 QB if he never played another down depending on what each individual values, I feel like most people understand that...... But such idiotic comments and ignoring common sense is why people like Delta and Johnny are here. Mahomes' fans bring this on themselves by not being objective

i pictured you smoking an old tobacco pipe while typing all this.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

The bolded comment is starting to get really annoying. If people really think passing the football in the NFL today is more difficult than 5,10,15,20 years ago I'd suggest they stop posting in this forum or any other football forum.

Passing yards are down first and foremost because the players today and over the past 10 years through college are not elite pocket passers for the most part, period.

The passing ability from the likes of peak Peyton Manning/Tom Brady/Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees do not compare whatsoever to the likes of Allen/Jackson/Mahomes/Hurts. This is not meant to upset anyone, it's pure fact. It's exemplified in the fact that suddenly everyone wants to talk about QBR.... the wonderful stat that takes rushing into account. Great, so now we have an excuse as to why overall passing volume stats are down....... yet plain ole QR rating which takes into account completion percentage/yards per attempt/tds/int as a gross cumulative formula somehow isn't meaningful anymore. Rating as a gross metric is perfectly fine over time, unlucky int's or poorly thrown td's even out over time.

Patrick Mahomes has a QR rating of about 93-94 for the past 3 years..... THREE YEARS. It was about 106 average for his first 5 years. As a reflection of that efficiency his QBR was an average of the mid 70's which is on the level of All Pro and MVP type play ... which is what we saw, and we know Patrick is a great athlete and can maneuver well and is willing to run. That is included in the QBR

Brady/Brees/Manning.... largely they were statues in the pocket, they didn't benefit any by running on QBR metrics. Brady had a season of 87, many many seasons in the 70's, and a season of 73 at 44 years old with the running ability of a 1000 pound statue.

Manning averaged a QBR of like 75 in the 10 years the stat went back..... had multiple in the 80's.... and he had the mobility of that same 1000 pund statue

Brees had huge volume stats, but just like the aforementioned, he had many seasons in the 70's and multiple in the 80's. Although a better athlete than the first two, he was never a threat to run ... so like the first two, these massive QBR's are as passers only.

These individuals had/have better QBR metrics than the likes of Allen/Jackson/Hurts/ and are better than Mahomes too for their best years....... while all of these guys now are either elite runners or are threats to take off for 20 plus whenever. You have to schematically plan for them, you have to spy or double spy them based on situations. This gives weaker coverage looks and ultimately they run so well they still get theirs on the ground.

And still............... with easier coverages to face and being far superior true athletes who score a bunch of rushing TD's and accumulate significant rushing yards....... they don't consistently have QBR's through the peak years that Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees did.

This isn't me bringing up ghosts to compare to players today. It's me telling you that QB development for players to be elite passers in the pocket is a shell of what it used to. It's easier to put an elite athlete at QB at younger age and have him rush for 80 yards and throw for 175 in middle school than it is to develop the likes of a Peyton Manning/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers/or Tom Brady and have that take a decade or more. Coaches want to win now and the dual threat QB is the easiest way to do that.

This isn't some secret..... and for people to keep ignoring it like it doesn't exist is inexcusable if you want to be taken seriously in a real debate/argument where actual context and facts matter.

Passing yards are down because players can't pass as well... period. Less attempts due to more rush attempts and rush TD means less pass yards....... In Mahomes case this year a lot of yards with his worst completion percentage of his career is indicative of being inferior as a passer compared to the other 4 guys mentioned from the 00s and 10s.......... that is indicative of having a rating of 93 this year.

Patrick Mahomes is a top 4-8 QB if he never played another down depending on what each individual values, I feel like most people understand that...... But such idiotic comments and ignoring common sense is why people like Delta and Johnny are here. Mahomes' fans bring this on themselves by not being objective

Great post.


Mahomes now compared to a few years ago isn't close. He's still good, but nothing like he was. And I can't blame it on his receiving core. He's gone to the SB with less.


He made some good plays yesterday, but clearly the defense won that game. They were fantastic in the second half.




I like Patty, have cards of his and people here know my unopened collection is 2017 heavy, but I can't look the other way. He has regressed.

[JWBlue]

Still 3rd in the NFL in QBR.

Last three years his RTG has been in the low 90s which certainly isn't elite.

Eye test says he hasn't been as good in the past.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Still 3rd in the NFL in QBR.

Last three years his RTG has been in the low 90s which certainly isn't elite.

Eye test says he hasn't been as good in the past.

Take all the top AFC QBs this coming into the year:

Mahomes
Allen
Lamar
Burrow

And you can say the same exact thing about every one of them. And I'd take Mahomes' performance over every other one of those 3 guys.

[CorndogWasp]

Now we're comparing Mahomes to Mahomes.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

Now we're comparing Mahomes to Mahomes.

Makes you wonder, right? Is his best already behind him

[CorndogWasp]

"His greatness isn't as great as it was!"

So hes still the best QB in the league but not as best as he was but still the best.

Must suck to be him and his fans.

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Mahomes now compared to a few years ago isn't close. He's still good, but nothing like he was. And I can't blame it on his receiving core. He's gone to the SB with less.


He made some good plays yesterday, but clearly the defense won that game. They were fantastic in the second half.


I like Patty, have cards of his and people here know my unopened collection is 2017 heavy, but I can't look the other way. He has regressed.

As most regulars in here remember, I've made it known over the years that I believe Mahomes is a better QB than Brady. Some of that has to do with the fact that I do not hold Brady in the same regard as most others, but nonetheless, after his first 5 seasons as a starting QB, it was indisputable that it was better than any 5-year span Brady put together at any point in his career.

I am now beginning to reconsider, as his worst 3 years are all smack dab in the prime years of his career. Shockingly, since that wonderous 5-year start, he's regressed. You can chop up and parse out statistics until you are blue in the face, but it's just true. Their entire offense is a sputtering mess, and he's not helping. He looks rushed, unsettled, and confused most of the time, which is strange considering he's had one coach, one system, and (essentially) one offensive coordinator his entire career. This is three straight years of mediocre play from the Chiefs, and I wonder if they're better off missing the playoffs. If they squeak in, win a game or two, they'll only prolong the slide. Their roster (considering cap restraints in the future), their coach (13 years at the helm), and their QB are all average, and it's disintegrating in real time.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

As most regulars in here remember, I've made it known over the years that I believe Mahomes is a better QB than Brady. Some of that has to do with the fact that I do not hold Brady in the same regard as most others, but nonetheless, after his first 5 seasons as a starting QB, it was indisputable that it was better than any 5-year span Brady put together at any point in his career.

I am now beginning to reconsider, as his worst 3 years are all smack dab in the prime years of his career. Shockingly, since that wonderous 5-year start, he's regressed. You can chop up and parse out statistics until you are blue in the face, but it's just true. Their entire offense is a sputtering mess, and he's not helping. He looks rushed, unsettled, and confused most of the time, which is strange considering he's had one coach, one system, and (essentially) one offensive coordinator his entire career. This is three straight years of mediocre play from the Chiefs, and I wonder if they're better off missing the playoffs. If they squeak in, win a game or two, they'll only prolong the slide. Their roster (considering cap restraints in the future), their coach (13 years at the helm), and their QB are all average, and it's disintegrating in real time.

*Sigh* Attention to detail is so undervalued, it's criminal. Brady/Manning, they see stuff on the field and adjust better than any quarterbacks that ever played.

The reason why this stuff is not taken into account is because most fans don't understand it and therefore put less emphasis in judging quarterbacks based on attention to detail. Not saying you don't know football.

[Jaysabz]

Originally Posted by pejc300

And for all the greatness that Drew Brees was, he went to 1 Super Bowl in 20 years. And he had a playoff record of .500.

What's my point? I'm not sure.

Know who's a big Brees fan and a die-hard Saints fan?

Delta5!! Yes, the one that always posts here. Check it out:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...79&postcount=3

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by Jaysabz

Know who's a big Brees fan and a die-hard Saints fan?

Delta5!! Yes, the one that always posts here. Check it out:

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showpo...79&postcount=3

Diehard Saints fan, with a Josh Allen profile pic who lives in the Mahomes thread


Makes complete sense

[JWBlue]

The sportsbooks are so afraid of KC/ Mahomes money.

Here are the Super Bowl odds at mine :

Football - Super Bowl (1)


NFC Conference EVEN
AFC Conference -120

The to four teams in the league are arguably Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, and Lions.

The Chiefs aren't even in the playoffs right now.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

The sportsbooks are so afraid of KC/ Spags money.

Here are the Super Bowl odds at mine :

Football - Super Bowl (1)


NFC Conference EVEN
AFC Conference -120

The to four teams in the league are arguably Rams, Eagles, Seahawks, and Lions.

The Chiefs aren't even in the playoffs right now.

Nobody's afraid of Mahomes. They're afraid of spags versus all these hybrid quarterbacks that he knows how to consistently shut down.

Spags seems to be barren of respect in this thread.

[boxbuster7]

Game against the Cowboys should be fun. Surprised KC is only favored by 3.

[Scottish Punk]

I always felt Mahomes is much closer to Favre than Brady/Manning as far as play style and temperament. I don't see the big regression some of the others are seeing. I view most of that in the lens that the offensive weapons are vastly overrated and they don't have any semblance of a running game. I do think there is a high probability that Mahomes won't age as gracefully because he relies on extending plays too often.

Brady/Manning have the best processors this game as ever had. They are already on the 3rd read before the ball is snapped. Just a matter of holding a safety or whatever before they throw it.

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

As most regulars in here remember, I've made it known over the years that I believe Mahomes is a better QB than Brady. Some of that has to do with the fact that I do not hold Brady in the same regard as most others, but nonetheless, after his first 5 seasons as a starting QB, it was indisputable that it was better than any 5-year span Brady put together at any point in his career.

I am now beginning to reconsider, as his worst 3 years are all smack dab in the prime years of his career. Shockingly, since that wonderous 5-year start, he's regressed. You can chop up and parse out statistics until you are blue in the face, but it's just true. Their entire offense is a sputtering mess, and he's not helping. He looks rushed, unsettled, and confused most of the time, which is strange considering he's had one coach, one system, and (essentially) one offensive coordinator his entire career. This is three straight years of mediocre play from the Chiefs, and I wonder if they're better off missing the playoffs. If they squeak in, win a game or two, they'll only prolong the slide. Their roster (considering cap restraints in the future), their coach (13 years at the helm), and their QB are all average, and it's disintegrating in real time.

The thing I saw with Brady that I don't see with Mahomes is he made his receivers around him better.

Deion Branch: SB MVP with Brady: Signs with Seattle. Nothing
David Givens/David Patten: SB winners then obscurity
Reche Caldwell: Chargers scrub, then best year of his career with Brady
Randy Moss: Had one of the best years in the NFL for any receiver in history with Brady
Brandon Lafell: good numbers with Carolina, best numbers with Brady
Danny Amendola/Chris Hogan: career years with Brady.
Mike Evans: Most td's (not yards) with guess who? Brady


I'd like to see how Patty does without Kelce which will likely be next year. Maybe it will force him to grow as a QB.

Should be very interesting.

[CorndogWasp]

Imagine how good Mahomes would be if his play callers filmed their opponents defense so they knew exactly whats calls to make. He would blow by that 50td record. I mean you know what the freakin defense is gonna do. Its easy mode.