Patrick Mahomes Prices

[KardsC1]

If you’re a true Brady fan..I can see you have good points..but most people these days never liked Brady..they hate mahomes so much that they have to dig up a retired player to criticize mahomes based on a retired player

Now for Josh Allen fans, Allen has about the same chances going forward as mahomes to win a SB…you have no prediction power like anyone else does …but one thing is for sure, even Josh Allen and non delusional fans would sign up in a heart beat to have 3 rings at the conclusion of his career

[WillBBC]

Most non delusional fans would be thrilled to have a single ring during any eight year span, let alone three.

[Delta5]

1 TD in 44 attempts on deep ball lol. Oh and 2 INTs on it. Lightshow lol

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

They won every game last year that was close and some were freak occurrences. They have lost most of those types of games this year. Things tend to even out over time but there is a reason why the SB odds are the way they are for the Chiefs and Ravens. Ultimately I'm not prepared to count out the Chiefs

However... the concerning thing is having the weapons there for Mahomes.... when the past two years people are crying about no weapons.... and the offense still doesn't look like it should assuming you do have an all time great elite passer. Kelce can still maneuver in space and be productive, Worthy is still a dynamic game breaker...... Rice should be a 1400 10 TD guy with an elite QB.

I don't know if it's poor schematics, poor on field protections/audibles/being unprepared ........... but Mahomes does not seem to be doing what other top 5-10 QB's regularly were able to do through regular seasons in their prime. Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, other great pure passers and ridiculously high football IQ guys seemed to maneuver things much better than Mahomes has the past 2-3 years. I understand he has won a ton of games and even SB's...... but 27/28 TD passes in 17 game seasons the past two years and trending toward maybe a third sub 30 season in a row I feel like should be concerning. This is of course only contextualized by being compared to peak Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees statistically during regular seasons. Even if the Chiefs missed the playoffs this year but Mahomes started to look like 4-5 years ago it wouldn't matter. The Patrick who won MVP's and 1 SB early was a better and more exciting player than the Patrick who has since won 2 more SB's playing at what appears to be a lesser version of himself.


The problem with them missing the playoffs is that he doesn't look right either. Brady led the league in TD passes in 02 when they missed so nobody cares. Brees missed a bunch throwing 40 td passes because the defense was terrible, nobody cared. Rodgers missed in 18 and 19 and looked kinda bad too even with the TD/INT ratio, that's a stain on his resume.

At the end of the day though I wouldn't be betting against Mahomes if the game mattered; unless it was against Brady. Between the Ravens actively trying to lose playoff games, the Bills finding ways to lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs a new way each year...... and the Bengals actively trying to make their team worse each year since 2021........ I see no imminent threat if the Chiefs get in the playoffs (other than potentially the Patriots). The Broncos are not a really good team, the Colts are not a really good team, the Chargers are not a really good team. I think the Patriots and Bills could present real problems, but until someone actually beats the Chiefs before the final 4... I'll go ahead and stick with them

Just for clarification, Rodgers never missed the playoffs in his prime when non-injured. The first season he missed the playoffs was 2018 (age 35 season), which was the year McCarthy finally got fired - 4 years too late, IMO. They went 13-3 in 2019 and got the #2 seed. You may have meant 2017 and 2018, but Anthony Barr broke Rodgers' collarbone in 2017, and he only played 7 games.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by MFaulkCollector

They won every game last year that was close and some were freak occurrences. They have lost most of those types of games this year. Things tend to even out over time but there is a reason why the SB odds are the way they are for the Chiefs and Ravens. Ultimately I'm not prepared to count out the Chiefs

However... the concerning thing is having the weapons there for Mahomes.... when the past two years people are crying about no weapons.... and the offense still doesn't look like it should assuming you do have an all time great elite passer. Kelce can still maneuver in space and be productive, Worthy is still a dynamic game breaker...... Rice should be a 1400 10 TD guy with an elite QB.

I don't know if it's poor schematics, poor on field protections/audibles/being unprepared ........... but Mahomes does not seem to be doing what other top 5-10 QB's regularly were able to do through regular seasons in their prime. Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, other great pure passers and ridiculously high football IQ guys seemed to maneuver things much better than Mahomes has the past 2-3 years. I understand he has won a ton of games and even SB's...... but 27/28 TD passes in 17 game seasons the past two years and trending toward maybe a third sub 30 season in a row I feel like should be concerning. This is of course only contextualized by being compared to peak Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees statistically during regular seasons. Even if the Chiefs missed the playoffs this year but Mahomes started to look like 4-5 years ago it wouldn't matter. The Patrick who won MVP's and 1 SB early was a better and more exciting player than the Patrick who has since won 2 more SB's playing at what appears to be a lesser version of himself.


The problem with them missing the playoffs is that he doesn't look right either. Brady led the league in TD passes in 02 when they missed so nobody cares. Brees missed a bunch throwing 40 td passes because the defense was terrible, nobody cared. Rodgers missed in 18 and 19 and looked kinda bad too even with the TD/INT ratio, that's a stain on his resume.

At the end of the day though I wouldn't be betting against Mahomes if the game mattered; unless it was against Brady. Between the Ravens actively trying to lose playoff games, the Bills finding ways to lose to the Chiefs in the playoffs a new way each year...... and the Bengals actively trying to make their team worse each year since 2021........ I see no imminent threat if the Chiefs get in the playoffs (other than potentially the Patriots). The Broncos are not a really good team, the Colts are not a really good team, the Chargers are not a really good team. I think the Patriots and Bills could present real problems, but until someone actually beats the Chiefs before the final 4... I'll go ahead and stick with them

This is a good post. I believe Mahomes has more than enough around him this year to be successful, but he has disappointed. Like you, I am not sure where the breakdown is...as you stated poor schematics, poor on field protections/audibles/being unprepared? Someone in this thread mentioned his back shoulder throw recently being one of the only times in his career to attempt it. Is that playcalling, personnel, scheme, lack of trust, lack of preparation…? Guys like Manning worked tirelessly with their receivers on route trees and preparation.

At times, it feels like watching a Navy football game only from a passing perspective versus a rushing perspective. When they have penalties/sacks/drops, it puts them behind the chains and kills drives. In years past, they would overcome the negative plays to keep drives alive. Yet as I say that I see they are averaging 2.6 punts per game, which is better than years past and 2nd best in the league behind Indy. Is it a result of fewer possessions, playing too slow and eating too much clock thus shrinking the game, the defense not getting off the field…? I am a big gambler and put a lot of weight in Vegas odds and line making. Obviously, the computer models and line makers still consider KC one of the best teams in the league based on spreads each week. On a neutral field, the oddsmakers have KC favored over almost everyone in the league and yet, the results don’t back that up. It is a fascinating situation.

Like you, I am not counting this team out yet, but something feels off and I am struggling to put my finger on it.

[dbpsooner]

Originally Posted by JohnnyHatesJazz

They are both bad looks.

Missing the playoffs in your prime as an NFL qb is bad.

Making the Super Bowl and getting crapped on in a one sided affair is also bad.

It's like writing a term paper in college. Not turning in a paper that is due is bad. Turning in a paper that is a concoction with no facts, no citations, tons of spelling and grammatical errors is also bad. The person writing it should be embarrassed.

OK I can't resist...In a place filled with stupidity, this analogy might take the cake, although not surprising given who it came from.

Like your analogy states, the person writing it should be embarrassed!

[Earlsnake07]

IMO these are the reasons for THIS team to be where they are. 100% factual that they are better on paper overall, but still some major issues.

A - poor running game - having Hunt as the #1 back is not a good idea (obviously). He is great for the short yards if/when needed, but he cant and shouldn't be the lead RB. IP wasn't exactly crushing when he was healthy either IMO. Which leads to....

B - many many issues on the o-line - injuries, personal reasons & simply not good - regardless of the reasons......the entire offense will not run if they cant run block or pass protect

C - d-line pressure - may just be me, but it doesn't seem that anyone on the d-line is "getting home" when it comes to pressuring other QB's. Typically Spag's d will look like Swiss cheese the 1h and then make adjustments and look dominant the 2h...hasn't been the case.

D - special teams - HB's kicking issues the first 6'ish games, kick OB or short of landing zone, holds on returns ------ST typically have been a positive for KC, not this year

E - PM just came out and said that quite a few teams are playing man...which is great if you can make plays/hit throws, but that hasn't been happening this year. Missing throws has been an issue - no question. PM has been running so much this year BECAUSE he is seeing the back's of the DB's and knows he can rack up running yards.



Originally I agreed with not giving up a 3rd for Breece because more than likely it was going to be a half season rental - but not sure our RB room is scaring any team right now, therefore keying on the pass game.

I have many more thoughts....

[KardsC1]

I rewatched the game…I blame a lot of the loss by rice …he missed a short TD pass in the red zone…also before the half he missed a catch that would of yielded a FG…then the 2nd half he missed a crucial pass too…all of which the ball went thru his hands …mahomes wasn’t perfect but he played good enough ..catch the ball!!

[chompie99]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

OK I can't resist...In a place filled with stupidity, this analogy might take the cake, although not surprising given who it came from.

Like your analogy states, the person writing it should be embarrassed!

Couldn’t have said it better myself. The lack of self-awareness coming from his account is pretty astonishing, thinking that Brady somehow needs someone to protect him from the evil hordes of Mahomes/Chiefs supporters. Brady will be just fine, no matter what any of us think.

I’ve never understood the self-promotion stuff either. Why anyone would want to be the “DJ” of an obscure mostly obsolete forum is beyond me. And then the refs stuff is just loony town.

Regardless, I doubt he’s changed anyone’s mind about anything with all the clamor.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

I rewatched the game…I blame a lot of the loss by rice …he missed a short TD pass in the red zone…also before the half he missed a catch that would of yielded a FG…then the 2nd half he missed a crucial pass too…all of which the ball went thru his hands …mahomes wasn’t perfect but he played good enough ..catch the ball!!

Rice's drops..
Too many penalties...
A bad interception...
Giving up a 1st down on 3rd and 15 in the final drive.

Just too many key mistakes in important situations.

Read an awful stat yesterday:

The Chiefs defense is letting opponents complete over 70% of their passes on 3rd down, worst in the NFL. Just another example of poor situational football.

[chompie99]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Rice's drops..
Too many penalties...
A bad interception...
Giving up a 1st down on 3rd and 15 in the final drive.

Just too many key mistakes in important situations.

Read an awful stat yesterday:

The Chiefs defense is letting opponents complete over 70% of their passes on 3rd down, worst in the NFL. Just another example of poor situational football.

I do think the defense has been a tick or two down this year. Pass rush and as you mentioned, third down conversion stops. Chris Jones has been down too. Last game was better ironically despite the loss. Sutton has been the Broncos go-to receiver on third downs but they converted that third and 15 to him anyway. Regardless, they need to win next two games.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by chompie99

I do think the defense has been a tick or two down this year. Pass rush and as you mentioned, third down conversion stops. Chris Jones has been down too. Last game was better ironically despite the loss. Sutton has been the Broncos go-to receiver on third downs but they converted that third and 15 to him anyway. Regardless, they need to win next two games.

And overall the defense has been pretty good this year. They played great vs Baltimore and Detroit, and they shut down bad offenses vs Vegas, Washington, and New York.

They've just broken down in key situations:
-3rd and 15s late in the game vs Denver and LA
-Final drive vs Jacksonville

3 opportunities for the defense to do their jobs and get a win or give the offense a great chance to close it out.

[JohnnyHatesJazz]

Originally Posted by dbpsooner

OK I can't resist...In a place filled with stupidity, this analogy might take the cake, although not surprising given who it came from.

Like your analogy states, the person writing it should be embarrassed!

Originally Posted by chompie99

Couldn’t have said it better myself. The lack of self-awareness coming from his account is pretty astonishing, thinking that Brady somehow needs someone to protect him from the evil hordes of Mahomes/Chiefs supporters. Brady will be just fine, no matter what any of us think.

I’ve never understood the self-promotion stuff either. Why anyone would want to be the “DJ” of an obscure mostly obsolete forum is beyond me. And then the refs stuff is just loony town.

Regardless, I doubt he’s changed anyone’s mind about anything with all the clamor.

These posts from CHUMPie99 and dbpLOONer reek of defeatism. This is what it must feel like to be Matlock, F Lee Baily, Johnny Cochran, Vincent Bugliosi, Robert Shapiro, Alan Dershowitz and Clarence Darrow after you smoke the opposition in a courtroom.

The upper hand always goes to the guy who watches the games AND the coaches film AND understands the game of football.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by Earlsnake07

IMO these are the reasons for THIS team to be where they are. 100% factual that they are better on paper overall, but still some major issues.

A - poor running game - having Hunt as the #1 back is not a good idea (obviously). He is great for the short yards if/when needed, but he cant and shouldn't be the lead RB. IP wasn't exactly crushing when he was healthy either IMO. Which leads to....

B - many many issues on the o-line - injuries, personal reasons & simply not good - regardless of the reasons......the entire offense will not run if they cant run block or pass protect

C - d-line pressure - may just be me, but it doesn't seem that anyone on the d-line is "getting home" when it comes to pressuring other QB's. Typically Spag's d will look like Swiss cheese the 1h and then make adjustments and look dominant the 2h...hasn't been the case.

D - special teams - HB's kicking issues the first 6'ish games, kick OB or short of landing zone, holds on returns ------ST typically have been a positive for KC, not this year

E - PM just came out and said that quite a few teams are playing man...which is great if you can make plays/hit throws, but that hasn't been happening this year. Missing throws has been an issue - no question. PM has been running so much this year BECAUSE he is seeing the back's of the DB's and knows he can rack up running yards.



Originally I agreed with not giving up a 3rd for Breece because more than likely it was going to be a half season rental - but not sure our RB room is scaring any team right now, therefore keying on the pass game.

I have many more thoughts....

It's always someone else's fault when they lose but credit all goes to QB when they win... Seems legit

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

I rewatched the game…I blame a lot of the loss by rice …he missed a short TD pass in the red zone…also before the half he missed a catch that would of yielded a FG…then the 2nd half he missed a crucial pass too…all of which the ball went thru his hands …mahomes wasn’t perfect but he played good enough ..catch the ball!!

What about the INT on redzone? missing 2 deep ball first drive when the receiver got the corner beat? It's never mahomes fault is it lol

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Delta5

What about the INT on redzone? missing 2 deep ball first drive when the receiver got the corner beat? It's never mahomes fault is it lol

what about the 0-4 record josh allen has against mahomes in the playoffs ya doofus

[Baraka]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Click on the name - view public profile.
Then under User Lists - Add to Ignore list

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

what about the 0-4 record josh allen has against mahomes in the playoffs ya doofus

People here love to shift argument elsewhere when they know it's a lost cause isnt it lol

[Selanne00008]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

what about the 0-4 record josh allen has against mahomes in the playoffs ya doofus

Most normal ppl would admit allen is in god mode and his D hasn’t been able to do any to g to help out the offense. I realize you’re getting baited by who you’re replying to, but at least give better arguments.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Baraka]

Yikes!

[boxbuster7]

Originally Posted by Selanne00008

Most normal ppl would admit allen is in god mode and his D hasn’t been able to do any to g to help out the offense. I realize you’re getting baited by who you’re replying to, but at least give better arguments.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

4-0 in the playoffs is as good of a argument as there is. At the end of the day people don't remember stats. They remember super bowl rings and Mahomes has 3 of them and Allen has...zero

[KardsC1]

Hate to be that guy but chiefs and bills fans might have to wait for next year…there is no way bills can win this year playing like they did today …bills ans chiefs both have been very streaky this year

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Hate to be that guy but chiefs and bills fans might have to wait for next year…there is no way bills can win this year playing like they did today …bills ans chiefs both have been very streaky this year

Meh... one of those teams has 3 Super Bowl wins to fall back on if it's a retooling year. The other one keeps losing in the AFC Championship game or earlier.

[KardsC1]

Delta, you know it and the world knows it..bills are not winning past the divisional this year..the 13 seconds game was the window

[Zauron]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I don't think 10 wins does it. The problem is they lost the tiebreaker against Buffalo and Jacksonville. They also are down 0-1 vs LA as well, but will get a chance to rectify that.

Realistically, check back in 10 days to see if they have a shot at the playoffs or not. Indy is going to be tough coming off the bye week, but at least it's at home. Cowboys are a team they should beat, but on the road on a Thursday game is always tricky. *If* that happens, then the end of the season is very winnable:

Home vs: Texans, Chargers, Broncos
Away vs: Titans, Raiders.

So these next two are must wins if you want any slack down the stretch.

10 wins was the baseline last year.

I don't see all of these teams getting to 10 wins:

Houston
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Jacksonville
Chargers

The big game probably will be vs Houston coming up for a playoff spot. If they win that, good chance that knocks Houston out.