Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[NickyCards]

Originally Posted by StellaBlue71

Hofstra Show?

Yes on Saturday

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Fanatics purchased Topps in January 2022, and people here have been saying the bolded nonsense since day 1. So we’re 4 years into this now. How long is your short-term window? The hobby feels bigger than ever. By participation and dollars. You can’t continue to say this indefinitely.

And by what metric is the hobby not going to 10x? Active participants might be tough. Revenue and income won’t be. Not for Fanatics at least.

They're just now releasing their first fully-licensed NBA product -- they're still technically in the early stages.

The market has been able to fend off a decline due to the resiliency of group breaking and repacks. Topps is now all in on gambling. It's a great way to maximize revenue in the near term, but long term you're going to steadily lose end-users. And the gamblers in the hobby will graduallu lose interest because it's a crappy form of gambling -- there are only so many times you can sucker people into wasting their money.

Pokémon is already siphoning off Topps' customers -- its popular with younger generations. Topps relies heavily on middle-aged consumers who grew up collecting sports cards. That'll gradually shift to Pokémon as the younger generations enter their prime earning years -- if they ever get there.

But I feel like this is all won't matter because AI is going to transform the economy and society. Trading cards are old-fashioned -- the future is the virtual world.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

How can you say this when they just released their flagship basketball product to the market in pallets and every store was fully stocked with affordable retail? They made sure there was plenty of $24.99 blasters on the shelves for lower-spending hobbyists with good odds of hitting at least some base and inserts of the top rookies.

$500 jumbo boxes may be out of reach, but that wasn't Fanatics price. The market drove those up. But considering the money can be spent on 20 blasters instead, that's probably the better bang for your buck.

They are absolutely going to 10x, and it's going to happen because they've fixed the problems with retail. Those SKUs are good enough to sell what they need to sell, but not so great that flippers are camping out. Mega Boxes have become the new hobby box for the budget-conscious collector. Basketball will prove that they nailed the formula.

Yes, Flagship is the one accessible Topps product. The value is still poor, but it's widely available in different formats and prices.

But Topps Chrome will be very different -- lower spenders will be priced out.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I wonder if the long term retention rate is actually better than its ever been? Almost no one i knew who collected as a kid in the junk wax era stuck with it more than a few years. Same with TCGs in the mid 90's, almost everyone i played with was in for a few years, then dropped out. I know more people who've gotten back into cards in the past ten years, and stuck with it than I have at any time in the last thirty years. I guess we'll have to look back 5-10 years from now to see if it holds this time.

The pandemic boom made sports cards mainstream again. A large percentage of those currently participating in the hobby grew up collecting trading cards during the 90s boom and are in their prime earning years. The current hobby is sustained largely by these consumers. That's gradually shifting to Pokémon as younger generations represent more and more the buying power in the trading card space.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Yes, Flagship is the one accessible Topps product. The value is still poor, but it's widely available in different formats and prices.

But Topps Chrome will be very different -- lower spenders will be priced out.

Not if they stick with the formula. People may not like this, but if you create a $29.99 Topps Chrome blaster with a blaster-exclusive parallel, retail-exclusive inserts, and throw some relics and autos in the mix, you could print to demand. A.) This satisfies the 10x goal, and B.) It ensures that even Topps Chrome will be available for lower spenders.

I know that people want both. They want a product with lower production for a cheaper price point that still packs a lot of value. But that product doesn't exist and never will. If it's too good, the flippers buy it out and drive up the prices regardless. If it's too bad, nobody wants it.

Someone's job at Fanatics is to figure out where the sweetspot is. Print enough TC to satisfy everyone who wants it but don't print so much that there are tens of thousands of leftover boxes a year after release.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The pandemic boom made sports cards mainstream again. A large percentage of those currently participating in the hobby grew up collecting trading cards during the 90s boom and are in their prime earning years. The current hobby is sustained largely by these consumers. That's gradually shifting to Pokémon as younger generations represent more and more the buying power in the trading card space.

I'm seeing a lot of younger people at card shows. Probably a lot of them are the kids from my generation who loved cards in the late 80s and 90s. The hobby is in a good spot and also growing internationally.

Topps should look into reobtaining the Pokémon license they had from 1999 to 2007 to produce non-TCG versions. Imagine an Ohtani with Charizard SP. Or Judge with Blastoise. People would shat bricks over that.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

The pandemic boom made sports cards mainstream again. A large percentage of those currently participating in the hobby grew up collecting trading cards during the 90s boom and are in their prime earning years. The current hobby is sustained largely by these consumers. That's gradually shifting to Pokémon as younger generations represent more and more the buying power in the trading card space.

Working as a school counselor almost doubles as market research for me lol. I feel like I'm always on the front line of what's hot or what's popular or trending.

I'm not seeing any signs of a Pokemon boom or shift. There are different pockets of kids. Some are into Pokemon and other TCGs. Some are into sports. Some are more of a Marvel/DC/Star Wars, tv etc. collector. Some are still big into RPGs and have Dungeons and Dragons tournaments at the public library. Pokemon may be infiltrating sports shows but I'm not seeing it infiltrate schools in the way you would expect.

I'm not sure what this means for the future. Clearly Pokemon is trending right now but it doesn't seem to be to a degree where a wave is coming. I think sports, tcg, and non-sport tv/movie cards are all going to continue to hold significant space in the hobby at large.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm seeing a lot of younger people at card shows. Probably a lot of them are the kids from my generation who loved cards in the late 80s and 90s. The hobby is in a good spot and also growing internationally.

Topps should look into reobtaining the Pokémon license they had from 1999 to 2007 to produce non-TCG versions. Imagine an Ohtani with Charizard SP. Or Judge with Blastoise. People would shat bricks over that.

I think Pokemon license would cost Fanatics an arm, leg and tail, 100 billion vs ~35 billion valuation. They do not need Topps money perse.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

They're just now releasing their first fully-licensed NBA product -- they're still technically in the early stages.

The market has been able to fend off a decline due to the resiliency of group breaking and repacks. Topps is now all in on gambling. It's a great way to maximize revenue in the near term, but long term you're going to steadily lose end-users. And the gamblers in the hobby will graduallu lose interest because it's a crappy form of gambling -- there are only so many times you can sucker people into wasting their money.

Pokémon is already siphoning off Topps' customers -- its popular with younger generations. Topps relies heavily on middle-aged consumers who grew up collecting sports cards. That'll gradually shift to Pokémon as the younger generations enter their prime earning years -- if they ever get there.

But I feel like this is all won't matter because AI is going to transform the economy and society. Trading cards are old-fashioned -- the future is the virtual world.

You're not wrong that AI will transform the economy and society. And the future is indeed going to be much more virtual. But that won't necessarily adversely affect sports cards - otherwise NFT's in general and in sports cards in particular would have taken off, and that hasn't been the case whatsoever.

If anything, the failure of NFT's, Top Shot, Topps Bunt etc. to gain widespread acceptance and popularity proves that people value having a tangible, physical asset in their possession. I don't see that changing, and it could be one of the reasons sports cards and TCG cards maintain financial and sentimental value in a future dominated by AI and VR.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm seeing a lot of younger people at card shows. Probably a lot of them are the kids from my generation who loved cards in the late 80s and 90s. The hobby is in a good spot and also growing internationally.

Topps should look into reobtaining the Pokémon license they had from 1999 to 2007 to produce non-TCG versions. Imagine an Ohtani with Charizard SP. Or Judge with Blastoise. People would shat bricks over that.

I would like to see a partnership between Fanatics and TPC to produce a new Chrome set (for starters). I can’t even imagine the numbers that the superfractors would do.

[ThoseBackPages]

Fanatics has been showing off big Pokemon stuff lately on Twitter

[theredmenace]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I would like to see a partnership between Fanatics and TPC to produce a new Chrome set (for starters). I can’t even imagine the numbers that the superfractors would do.

This seems like an inevitability. Insert art cards (BC GPK, Bowman Anime, Finest Headliners etc) already sell really well and throwing TPC into the mix is the next logical step.

[solt0131]

Isn't the Dallas show this weekend?

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Isn't the Dallas show this weekend?

Yes, it is. I'm going on Thurs night/Fri morning for the first time since July 2024.

[Gatorsmld]

Went to a 200 table show in Pelham AL this past weekend. I usually have no problems finding dollar boxes to dig through, but it seems like the last 2 or 3 shows most everything has gone the way of the slab. Only found a couple this weekend. Anyone else see this?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Gatorsmld

Went to a 200 table show in Pelham AL this past weekend. I usually have no problems finding dollar boxes to dig through, but it seems like the last 2 or 3 shows most everything has gone the way of the slab. Only found a couple this weekend. Anyone else see this?

This is the trend. In my experience, the larger the show, the larger percentage of tables full of slabs, but by sheer volume of dealers, still the better chance of at least finding a few good bargain boxes (and other stuff). These shows attract your big regional and national dealers populating those more expensive tables. Many of these types are not going to bother hauling around bulk. My best bargain box experiences tend to come at smaller (~40-50 table) local shows that don't attract regional and national dealers. Not all are great though which makes driving a considerable distance to one a bigger risk than one of the big ones.

I went to a puny ~20 table show about 45 minutes west of Minneapolis on Saturday and found a few decent bargain bins. I then hit the Fargo, ND one on way home Sunday and found more in spite of hitting that show half a dozen times in the past year. Maybe I make a drive for a couple in Minneapolis area on the 15th, otherwise my next local one is Dec 6th. Hopefully the weather is good for a drive to the big Sioux Falls on Jan 10th as that show has always offered a good mix of stuff.

[LVDan]

There’s a show at the Rio casino here in Las Vegas this weekend I may attend(time willing). I think it’s been about a year and half since my last one- that was about 20% non sports- so I’m expecting this time closer to a 50/50 split.

[metsandweezer]

Originally Posted by LVDan

There’s a show at the Rio casino here in Las Vegas this weekend I may attend(time willing). I think it’s been about a year and half since my last one- that was about 20% non sports- so I’m expecting this time closer to a 50/50 split.

I’ll be set up.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by metsandweezer

I’ll be set up.

Sweet- I'll definitely stop by and say hi. Our last deals were like 6-7 years ago at a mall show I think.

[metsandweezer]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Sweet- I'll definitely stop by and say hi. Our last deals were like 6-7 years ago at a mall show I think.

The good old days.

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by metsandweezer

The good old days.

Indeed my friend.
Me-searching for higher end stuff of Austin Meadows and Franimal Reyes while ignoring the millions of rookie year Ohtanis littering the landscape.
What a buffoon

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by solt0131

Isn't the Dallas show this weekend?

Doesn't sound like it went well.

[f2tornado]

There were two card shows just a few miles apart in suburban Minneapolis Saturday and one north of there in Brainerd. I git up early thinking it would be an entertaining day combining a long drive with some card shopping.

The show at Earle Brown was absolute chaos and I will not go out of my way to return. Overcrowded and overloaded with Pokémon. I managed to get to a few bargain bins that were not that great and got the hell out of there. Drove a few miles south to the church in Golden Valley and it was a much better atmosphere with around 40 tables. A few people there complained about the other show. I spent some money at a few tables then went up to Brainerd. Maybe 40 tables there as well but not really worth the $10 I paid to get in. Bought a few cards and drove back to Bismarck.

It's highly unlikely I found enough stuff to offset the IRS milage allowance making it a probable technical loss on paper. Further, the biggest of the three shows was zero fun; the absolute worst experience I've had at any show I've been at. I probably won't hit another out of town show until the big Sioux Falls one in January, weather permitting. And I'm not even that excited for that one.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

There were two card shows just a few miles apart in suburban Minneapolis Saturday and one north of there in Brainerd. I git up early thinking it would be an entertaining day combining a long drive with some card shopping.

The show at Earle Brown was absolute chaos and I will not go out of my way to return. Overcrowded and overloaded with Pokémon. I managed to get to a few bargain bins that were not that great and got the hell out of there. Drove a few miles south to the church in Golden Valley and it was a much better atmosphere with around 40 tables. A few people there complained about the other show. I spent some money at a few tables then went up to Brainerd. Maybe 40 tables there as well but not really worth the $10 I paid to get in. Bought a few cards and drove back to Bismarck.

It's highly unlikely I found enough stuff to offset the IRS milage allowance making it a probable technical loss on paper. Further, the biggest of the three shows was zero fun; the absolute worst experience I've had at any show I've been at. I probably won't hit another out of town show until the big Sioux Falls one in January, weather permitting. And I'm not even that excited for that one.

Even if audited, is someone from the IRS really going to go on Google Maps and calculate the exact distance between your house and the shows? Honest question from someone who just collects for fun.

[BabaORiley]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

You're not wrong that AI will transform the economy and society. And the future is indeed going to be much more virtual. But that won't necessarily adversely affect sports cards - otherwise NFT's in general and in sports cards in particular would have taken off, and that hasn't been the case whatsoever.

If anything, the failure of NFT's, Top Shot, Topps Bunt etc. to gain widespread acceptance and popularity proves that people value having a tangible, physical asset in their possession. I don't see that changing, and it could be one of the reasons sports cards and TCG cards maintain financial and sentimental value in a future dominated by AI and VR.

Panini Blockchain did $15m in sales a couple months ago. Every pack drop on the platform sells out within a couple minutes. It may not resonate as much with BO posters but there's a pretty vibrant market over there.