Better buy right now -- Ohtani or Vladdy Jr?

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by thoughtfreeze

Yea, that catch in the 4th inning over the foul line was amazing.

that diving catch was clutch, so was that one double play in the 7th or 8th.

[ThoseBackPages]

its over johnny

[blackbears86]

I'm surprised the vote is as close as it is.


Short term? Sure Vladdy. But now that the Jays lost the WS, that window is closing fast. I'm not a buyer. Is anyone else here? I don't have it in me to search ebay for bargains and risk selling for a meager profit now that the Jays have been bounced.


Long term? Not even close. Vlad has never won an MVP, never won a world series and is on a small market team compared to the Dodgers.


It's Ohtani. All day, every day. He will be remembered as a legend. Vlad? Great player, but not in the same ballpark.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by blackbears86

I'm surprised the vote is as close as it is.


Short term? Sure Vladdy. But now that the Jays lost the WS, that window is closing fast. I'm not a buyer. Is anyone else here? I don't have it in me to search ebay for bargains and risk selling for a meager profit now that the Jays have been bounced.


Long term? Not even close. Vlad has never won an MVP, never won a world series and is on a small market team compared to the Dodgers.


It's Ohtani. All day, every day. He will be remembered as a legend. Vlad? Great player, but not in the same ballpark.

To be fair to Vladdy, he's only 26 years old. Ohtani didn't win his first MVP award until he was 27. Likewise, he didn't win his first championship until he was 30.

[BigL7370]

Vladdy ends up more as a regional superstar but is anyone going to a pay a premium to have his cards shipped from the US to Canada at this time?

[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

To be fair to Vladdy, he's only 26 years old. Ohtani didn't win his first MVP award until he was 27. Likewise, he didn't win his first championship until he was 30.

Good point. He has age on his side, but still a lot of "if's" that need to happen.


It's hard to win MVP's and world series. Ohtani already has a bunch.

[Triple B]

There are a few of us who started collecting Vlad before anything happened. His 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto was $70 at release. His Blue Auto was $125-$150 (those are prices I was buying them at). Since then, there were a few cash out opportunities and speaking for myself, I took advantage. Within that time, everything I have is paid for (meaning, I'm not sitting back hoping I make back my money).

Ohtani came out hot right out of the gate (as everyone does since 2017-2018). His Bowman Chrome autos were largely unaffordable, BUT, they have exploded since he established himself as the GOAT.

Bottom line, if you got in early on either guy, you did well, especially with Ohtani. Vlad was more affordable than Ohtani, but both made people money, and anyone getting in now will be hard-pressed to make as much. My vote went to Vlad because Ohtani has easily established himself as a HOFer and Vlad is on his way.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by Triple B

There are a few of us who started collecting Vlad before anything happened. His 2016 Bowman Chrome 1st Auto was $70 at release. His Blue Auto was $125-$150 (those are prices I was buying them at). Since then, there were a few cash out opportunities and speaking for myself, I took advantage. Within that time, everything I have is paid for (meaning, I'm not sitting back hoping I make back my money).

Ohtani came out hot right out of the gate (as everyone does since 2017-2018). His Bowman Chrome autos were largely unaffordable, BUT, they have exploded since he established himself as the GOAT.

Bottom line, if you got in early on either guy, you did well, especially with Ohtani. Vlad was more affordable than Ohtani, but both made people money, and anyone getting in now will be hard-pressed to make as much. My vote went to Vlad because Ohtani has easily established himself as a HOFer and Vlad is on his way.

I am glad you enjoy your Vladdy Jr. collection, and it has all been paid for by profit!

My perspective is different than yours. I started collecting during Covid. During 2021 I bought a ton of both Ohtani and Vladdy jr. as both were having breakout years. The only difference is, every Ohtani RC I bought has gone up in value, and every Vladdy Jr. RC I bought has gone down in value (dramatically).

Ohtani is a generational player and his cards will continue to go up in value. Vladdy Jr. is an all star player (with a chance of being a HOF one day) and his cards likely peaked in 2021 and are unlikely to move much in value going forward.

[ThoseBackPages]

$ean we should see if the mod can add "COVID Buyer" under your username

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

Ohtani is a generational player and his cards will continue to go up in value.

This is a classic fallacy many collectors/investors make. They assume the GOATS' cards only go up. This is false. Every single GOAT has gone through periods of downturns in their prices. Go back and buy Griffey cards in 2010, or Jordan cards in 2003. The list goes on and on. The chart might generally head up and to the right, but there are ALWAYS ups and downs. 100% of the time. Ohtani's cards WILL be cheaper at some point than they are today. Mark it down.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This is a classic fallacy many collectors/investors make. They assume the GOATS' cards only go up. This is false. Every single GOAT has gone through periods of downturns in their prices. Go back and buy Griffey cards in 2010, or Jordan cards in 2003. The list goes on and on. The chart might generally head up and to the right, but there are ALWAYS ups and downs. 100% of the time. Ohtani's cards WILL be cheaper at some point than they are today. Mark it down.

Ohtani's cards did seem to dip ever so slightly after his bonkers NLCS game 4. For example, his 18 BC batting PSA 10 peaked just shy of $3.5k, but most recent sales are more in the $3-3.1k range.

Though now that he and the Dodgers have repeated as WS champs and he'll soon officially be named MVP for a 4th time, we'll probably just see a steady march upwards from here till the beginning of next season. And if he and Japan do well in the WBC, may very well be another big spike.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Ohtani's cards did seem to dip ever so slightly after his bonkers NLCS game 4. For example, his 18 BC batting PSA 10 peaked just shy of $3.5k, but most recent sales are more in the $3-3.1k range.

Though now that he and the Dodgers have repeated as WS champs and he'll soon officially be named MVP for a 4th time, we'll probably just see a steady march upwards from here till the beginning of next season. And if he and Japan do well in the WBC, may very well be another big spike.

All probably true. Doesn't change the fact that there WILL be a dip as he reaches the last few years of his current contract.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

All probably true. Doesn't change the fact that there WILL be a dip as he reaches the last few years of his current contract.

The last 2-3 years of his career, there likely won't be any huge spikes like we've seen this year, but unless his performance completely falls off a cliff the last few years, I can see his values at least staying steady. If he becomes a shell of his former self (see Miggy) I can see a dip happening towards the end. But then once he announces his retirement, his cards will never be cheaper than at that moment in time.

[Trueblue]

I do agree that non-rookie Ohtani cards cannot sustain this level unless they are from iconic insert sets. 8 more years of brrrrrrr at the presses will dilute any player market.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

The last 2-3 years of his career, there likely won't be any huge spikes like we've seen this year, but unless his performance completely falls off a cliff the last few years, I can see his values at least staying steady. If he becomes a shell of his former self (see Miggy) I can see a dip happening towards the end. But then once he announces his retirement, his cards will never be cheaper than at that moment in time.

Even Jordan had a dip. It's inevitable.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This is a classic fallacy many collectors/investors make. They assume the GOATS' cards only go up. This is false. Every single GOAT has gone through periods of downturns in their prices. Go back and buy Griffey cards in 2010, or Jordan cards in 2003. The list goes on and on. The chart might generally head up and to the right, but there are ALWAYS ups and downs. 100% of the time. Ohtani's cards WILL be cheaper at some point than they are today. Mark it down.

It happens when sustains a midcareer injury and/or when a player starts fading late in career... before achieving certain milestones. There can be a retirement bump then a year or two of doldrums before Hall talk takes over. Pujols comes to mind. Ohtani will not keep raking forever and is bound to have some slump time. Hopefully little or no injury time as that can derail a career in a hurry. Trout was GOAT-like for eight years and now his rookie card can be had at 20% of the peak.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I do agree that non-rookie Ohtani cards cannot sustain this level unless they are from iconic insert sets. 8 more years of brrrrrrr at the presses will dilute any player market.

I've already noticed a slight but noticeable pullback for his low-tier rookie cards the past week. Those really were at unsustainable levels with the Ohtani FOMO rush at its peak a couple weeks ago.

[seanrs1]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This is a classic fallacy many collectors/investors make. They assume the GOATS' cards only go up. This is false. Every single GOAT has gone through periods of downturns in their prices. Go back and buy Griffey cards in 2010, or Jordan cards in 2003. The list goes on and on. The chart might generally head up and to the right, but there are ALWAYS ups and downs. 100% of the time. Ohtani's cards WILL be cheaper at some point than they are today. Mark it down.

You sort of took this sentence out of context...it was meant to compare and contrast to my experience of buying both Ohtani and Vladdy Jr. in 2021 when both had peaks in card prices.


"Ohtani is a generational player and his cards will continue to go up in value. Vladdy Jr. is an all star player (with a chance of being a HOF one day) and his cards likely peaked in 2021 and are unlikely to move much in value going forward."

I never said Ohtani cards will never have a dip in the future (in terms of buying opportunity). Or that they will go up in value forever.

At this time though his cards (and I should of clarified RC cards) will go up in value because demand is going to increase as time goes on.