First Buzz: 2025 Topps Allen & Ginter baseball cards

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by cardmike

I am a little unsure about this wording. You get two hits. Would vintage buyback be considered a hit? Is a rip card a hit? So potentially no auto?

Description is about as clear as mud.

Thanks as always, Fanatics! You're doing a great job!

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by cardmike

I am a little unsure about this wording. You get two hits. Would vintage buyback be considered a hit? Is a rip card a hit? So potentially no auto?

Auto per hobby box has NEVER been the case with A&G. I've heard others also claim that A&G has an auto in every box. I truly have no idea where people come up with this. The odds are printed right on the wrappers or boxes and generally are around 1:55 to 1:65 packs for the base autos and factoring in the reds and full size, generally works out to 1:50 to 1:60 packs.

Last few years autos fell slightly worse than 1 per 2 hobby boxes.

Yes RIP card is a hit. Buybacks in the past have been the framed original Allen & Ginter and that has also been considered a hit.

[Jboff73]

"Each Hobby Box packs two hits, on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful."

Some one needs to hire an editor. There's no way to parse this in a way that's clear.

I think it should read to be clearer:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits. Possible hits include on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

I don't think it means this, but it could be read as:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits, AS WELL AS on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

This later version could mean that two "hits" may be the chrome cards and everything else would be seeded randomly.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by Jboff73

"Each Hobby Box packs two hits, on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful."

Some one needs to hire an editor. There's no way to parse this in a way that's clear.

I think it should read to be clearer:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits. Possible hits include on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

I don't think it means this, but it could be read as:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits, AS WELL AS on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

This later version could mean that two "hits" may be the chrome cards and everything else would be seeded randomly.

Top tier talent working at Fanatics. Very stringent hiring process.

[cardmike]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

Auto per hobby box has NEVER been the case with A&G. I've heard others also claim that A&G has an auto in every box. I truly have no idea where people come up with this. The odds are printed right on the wrappers or boxes and generally are around 1:55 to 1:65 packs for the base autos and factoring in the reds and full size, generally works out to 1:50 to 1:60 packs.

Last few years autos fell slightly worse than 1 per 2 hobby boxes.

Yes RIP card is a hit. Buybacks in the past have been the framed original Allen & Ginter and that has also been considered a hit.

Thank you for this clarification. This helps a lot.

[Spinz]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Any word on autograph subjects non-baseball?

Check the Tracker post. There is 5 confirmed names as of now. I’m sure the next 2 weeks will give us a better look at what’s ahead

[Ajax1723]

Originally Posted by Jboff73

"Each Hobby Box packs two hits, on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful."

Some one needs to hire an editor. There's no way to parse this in a way that's clear.

I think it should read to be clearer:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits. Possible hits include on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

I don't think it means this, but it could be read as:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits, AS WELL AS on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

This later version could mean that two "hits" may be the chrome cards and everything else would be seeded randomly.

All they really have to do is add the word "including". I get this may be confusing if you dont know the brand or are new, but this is in-line with past Ginter releases.

"Each Hobby Box packs two hits, INCLUDING on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful."

[Boredlawyer]

Contents don't matter. Fanatics will juice these with some enormous chases. These boxes won't be cheaper than this price for at least 24 months.

Buy a case, if you hate it, sell it and turn a little profit.

[dodgerfanjohn]

Cases sold out on Topps. I imagine hobby boxes done by the end of the day.

[jjcan]

I hope the non sports cards are nice this year, state birds is not the best selling point for me. I wonder if they will put a Cooper Flagg or the NFl cards in this time?

[timber63401]

In for 2 boxes because the boy likes it. First time in a long time I'm not in for 1 or more cases.

[Boredlawyer]

Went back to the well and snagged the rest of the hobby boxes available during an allotment.

Is is reasonable to put out a Ginter product for $140 shipped, with reduced hits, and possibly no boxtoppers? No. But I learned my lesson in post-Covid times-market can remain irrational for an extended period of time with regard to wax. People are paying close to $300 for Topps Update jumbo right now, and that's a fairly weak product. Even if Topps completely kneecaps this product... desire to open wax will win out.

I have come to realize that a big enough chunk of buyers attribute an unbelievably high entertainment value to opening packs regardless of ROI. Ginter is going to have an enormous market, and this is the absolute floor for wax for this prospect cycle. Pretty sure you can't find an Allen and Ginter box of any year for less than $170 right now. And that's for the incredibly weak 2021 rookie class.

Just buy it, and sell your box for $190-200 after it comes in if you decide the product stinks. If the product doesn't stink, and you decide in a month you do want to open it, you'll have to pay a premium. Aside from allocating some funds for a few weeks, there's no downsize to this pre-order price. Ginter isn't a prospect-driven product, but at least you can rely on Kurtz, Wood and Sasaki being in this.

People need to recognize that choking the supply to the non-distro/non-breaker public creates a big opportunity. And you can freeroll a few Topps Now points, as well.

[YouTheManNick]

Originally Posted by Jboff73

"Each Hobby Box packs two hits, on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful."

Some one needs to hire an editor. There's no way to parse this in a way that's clear.

I think it should read to be clearer:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits. Possible hits include on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

I don't think it means this, but it could be read as:
Each Hobby Box packs two hits, AS WELL AS on-card autos, framed relics, rip cards, or vintage buybacks, making every rip a journey through the weird, wild, and wonderful.

This later version could mean that two "hits" may be the chrome cards and everything else would be seeded randomly.

I'm sure it's AI generated. Prompt. Copy. Paste. Send. Done.

[yoyosh]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Went back to the well and snagged the rest of the hobby boxes available during an allotment.

Is is reasonable to put out a Ginter product for $140 shipped, with reduced hits, and possibly no boxtoppers? No. But I learned my lesson in post-Covid times-market can remain irrational for an extended period of time with regard to wax. People are paying close to $300 for Topps Update jumbo right now, and that's a fairly weak product. Even if Topps completely kneecaps this product... desire to open wax will win out.

I have come to realize that a big enough chunk of buyers attribute an unbelievably high entertainment value to opening packs regardless of ROI. Ginter is going to have an enormous market, and this is the absolute floor for wax for this prospect cycle. Pretty sure you can't find an Allen and Ginter box of any year for less than $170 right now. And that's for the incredibly weak 2021 rookie class.

Just buy it, and sell your box for $190-200 after it comes in if you decide the product stinks. If the product doesn't stink, and you decide in a month you do want to open it, you'll have to pay a premium. Aside from allocating some funds for a few weeks, there's no downsize to this pre-order price. Ginter isn't a prospect-driven product, but at least you can rely on Kurtz, Wood and Sasaki being in this.

People need to recognize that choking the supply to the non-distro/non-breaker public creates a big opportunity. And you can freeroll a few Topps Now points, as well.

*insert the "he's right, you know" emoji*

[dodgerfanjohn]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Went back to the well and snagged the rest of the hobby boxes available during an allotment.

Is is reasonable to put out a Ginter product for $140 shipped, with reduced hits, and possibly no boxtoppers? No. But I learned my lesson in post-Covid times-market can remain irrational for an extended period of time with regard to wax. People are paying close to $300 for Topps Update jumbo right now, and that's a fairly weak product. Even if Topps completely kneecaps this product... desire to open wax will win out.

I have come to realize that a big enough chunk of buyers attribute an unbelievably high entertainment value to opening packs regardless of ROI. Ginter is going to have an enormous market, and this is the absolute floor for wax for this prospect cycle. Pretty sure you can't find an Allen and Ginter box of any year for less than $170 right now. And that's for the incredibly weak 2021 rookie class.

Just buy it, and sell your box for $190-200 after it comes in if you decide the product stinks. If the product doesn't stink, and you decide in a month you do want to open it, you'll have to pay a premium. Aside from allocating some funds for a few weeks, there's no downsize to this pre-order price. Ginter isn't a prospect-driven product, but at least you can rely on Kurtz, Wood and Sasaki being in this.

People need to recognize that choking the supply to the non-distro/non-breaker public creates a big opportunity. And you can freeroll a few Topps Now points, as well.

I mean all of this is true. 2024 hobby boxes go at what...$250-300? You have to enjoy setting fire to money at that price point yet apparently it still sells.

I've frequently pointed to the Sportscard Nonsense Facebook Group. Its not because I think highly of that group, but rather that it has a six figure following and its people who largely have no knowledge of the card market at all. And they are spending money on opening wax...its what they enjoy. Seriously one of the threads this morning, with hundreds of responses in agreement....are bitching because the "vintage" pack in the advent calendars is a junk wax pack. Literally complaining because they didn't get anything worth anything out of a $50 Advent box...a product entirely targeted at children. And complaining even more that the local card shop is charging $80-90 for it. Anyone reading about it might spend $50 as a fun rip type of thing. I have no idea why one would incinerate a couple extra $20's on this.

Point being, that I agree with you and there are in fact people buying these products, regardless of what the collective Blowout forums opinion is.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

I mean all of this is true. 2024 hobby boxes go at what...$250-300? You have to enjoy setting fire to money at that price point yet apparently it still sells.

I've frequently pointed to the Sportscard Nonsense Facebook Group. Its not because I think highly of that group, but rather that it has a six figure following and its people who largely have no knowledge of the card market at all. And they are spending money on opening wax...its what they enjoy. Seriously one of the threads this morning, with hundreds of responses in agreement....are bitching because the "vintage" pack in the advent calendars is a junk wax pack. Literally complaining because they didn't get anything worth anything out of a $50 Advent box...a product entirely targeted at children. And complaining even more that the local card shop is charging $80-90 for it. Anyone reading about it might spend $50 as a fun rip type of thing. I have no idea why one would incinerate a couple extra $20's on this.

Point being, that I agree with you and there are in fact people buying these products, regardless of what the collective Blowout forums opinion is.

I am wholeheartedly convinced that Topps could create a baseball card product which guaranteed that its contents never exceeded $80, and the public would bid it up to $100. There is an angle of market irrationality that I've missed for years, that I've finally come around to.

I'll buy it without a checklist. Fanatics is going to throw some wild chase cards which will capture the irrational market. They will spin a JD Vance propeller beanie hat relic and it whet some appetites. Buying pre-sale/directly from Fanatics for any hobby release is making a bet that an extremely profitable (albeit soulless) company knows how to capture a market of irrational gamblers. I'll roll with them until the margins take away my edge, or until the customers run out.

And sometimes I even like to open a spare box or two for fun, so I view it as:

Worst case scenario, I break even and get to have the fun of throwing Topps Now points on a raffle;

Best case scenario is I profit some car payments selling my boxes;

Either way I can probably get my dopamine rush from opening a box at MSRP or a couple Topps Now envelopes, and still make some money.

And if I fall in love with the product on release day, I can open it, and be one of the first to the market with any singles. There's very limited downside.

[phil]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

There's very limited downside.

Well, limited catastrophic downside anyway. Fanatics could delay it to double the print run while watering down the content enough where it's not worth ripping, and while tying up your money for 6+ weeks only to have it end up selling for $150-160 on eBay (breakeven or less) for the foreseeable future.

[BlowoutBuzz]

Framed buyback cards were hits in past. Autographs have never been guaranteed in every box here. Rip Cards also have been hits here.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by phil

Well, limited catastrophic downside anyway. Fanatics could delay it to double the print run while watering down the content enough where it's not worth ripping, and while tying up your money for 6+ weeks only to have it end up selling for $150-160 on eBay (breakeven or less) for the foreseeable future.

That's not their MO or pattern for non-EQL releases. It's:

-Pre-sale on nDay
-Open release @ slightly higher price on nDay + 1 month; pre-sold boxes are delivered ~ this day; can't purchase additional allotment if I've reached pre-sale limit.
-Funnel buyers to Fanatics Live.

As to the delay: Let's say a $2,000 case and my money is worth a 8% annual rate of return. If they delay it 2 weeks, that's a 0.3% loss, amounting to about $6.15.

[goin3d]

have they said when the actual release date is that the pre-orders should be delivered?

[Rememberthepast]

Originally Posted by jjcan

I hope the non sports cards are nice this year, state birds is not the best selling point for me. I wonder if they will put a Cooper Flagg or the NFl cards in this time?

If Cooper Flagg is in here, holy amazing!!

[Rememberthepast]

Originally Posted by goin3d

have they said when the actual release date is that the pre-orders should be delivered?

I read on Beckett’s site;

Release date (subject to change): December 3, 2025

[phil]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

That's not their MO or pattern for non-EQL releases. It's:

-Pre-sale on nDay
-Open release @ slightly higher price on nDay + 1 month; pre-sold boxes are delivered ~ this day; can't purchase additional allotment if I've reached pre-sale limit.
-Funnel buyers to Fanatics Live.

As to the delay: Let's say a $2,000 case and my money is worth a 8% annual rate of return. If they delay it 2 weeks, that's a 0.3% loss, amounting to about $6.15.

Agree a (short) delay would be minor thing for a good high demand product, but some mainstream 2025 MLB products are selling for what would barely net presell price if not under despite being much higher in 2024 (TC and Finest come to mind) so I wouldn't count on A&G being flippable for a profit out of the gate. Maybe worth sticking away as a hold until it dries up.

[goin3d]

Originally Posted by Rememberthepast

I read on Beckett’s site;

Release date (subject to change): December 3, 2025

Thank you!!!!

[YouTheManNick]

Originally Posted by dodgerfanjohn

I mean all of this is true. 2024 hobby boxes go at what...$250-300? You have to enjoy setting fire to money at that price point yet apparently it still sells.

Are people actually paying that? Or is it just price fixing? Fanatics forcing everyone to list at these prices regardless of whether anything is moving?

"List at our prices or lose allocation."

Most of my A&G related saved searches have been dry as a bone for a while. I feel like this stuff is just sitting. Not getting bought or ripped.

I could absolutely be wrong. But it just feels like hanky panky to me.