First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps NBA basketball cards

[vollybal]

Well the Fedex truck dropped off the pre Sell 3x Hobby boxes I ordered around noon and I opened them up. Sorry for the side way photos, did not have the time to correct.


Crap ton of inserts and RCs. Nothing really big numbered wise.

In the 1st box I got an auto and relic(both of Ayo Dosunmu)...


2nd Box had Egor Demin CONTEMPORARY MARKS RC Auto and 2 Cooper Flagg Cards(1980-81 and Base)





3rd box was the winner:



COOPER FLAGG MOJO BASE FROM SILVER PACK!!



And Then This Popped out of a pack...



COPPER FLAGG CONTEMPORARY MARKS RC AUTO!!!



So yeah I think I did just fine with the Pre-Order.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

You're right, people will always take the top 5 cards in the product, dream big on beating the million to one odds of pulling it, and buy it.

To "properly evaluate" a product you have to look at how many high end cards there are. The amount of 5 figure cards in here is staggering. The second thing you have to look at is how many cards are SELLING for over the price of a box. Lets just use jumbos as an example because its the most expensive. Take a quick peak at ebay and see how many cards have sold for over $400 already. You might be surprised. And that doesn't count the ones that are listed for sale. As well as the ones that the breakers have shredded through that people do not have in hand yet. This also does not count any grading at all.

I have already stated the prices cards are going for is nuts. Like truly nuts. Almost all of them are going to see a very steep decline. But that doesn't mean the wax is going to fall. There are far too many good cards in here for this release to just fade away with lack of demand after there has been no Topps Basketball cards for over a decade.

I will say this, those that know me on the baseball side know that I have previously ripped more flagship cases than any other individuals minus just a couple people. I pulled away from doing that with baseball because the wax and content value do not line up with each other. But there are cards in here that can cover multiple cases by themselves. It makes me want to rip through a couple cases again. But I'm fighting the urge because I don't have the time to list the singles right now. These big cards are going to continue to feed the demand for these hobby and jumbo boxes. The majority of people opening are going to get destroyed. But there will be enough fire cards pulled to keep people coming back. Just like those scratcher tickets that people can't stop buying.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by premium1981

To "properly evaluate" a product you have to look at how many high end cards there are. The amount of 5 figure cards in here is staggering. The second thing you have to look at is how many cards are SELLING for over the price of a box. Lets just use jumbos as an example because its the most expensive. Take a quick peak at ebay and see how many cards have sold for over $400 already. You might be surprised. And that doesn't count the ones that are listed for sale. As well as the ones that the breakers have shredded through that people do not have in hand yet. This also does not count any grading at all.

I have already stated the prices cards are going for is nuts. Like truly nuts. Almost all of them are going to see a very steep decline. But that doesn't mean the wax is going to fall. There are far too many good cards in here for this release to just fade away with lack of demand after there has been no Topps Basketball cards for over a decade.

I will say this, those that know me on the baseball side know that I have previously ripped more flagship cases than any other individuals minus just a couple people. I pulled away from doing that with baseball because the wax and content value do not line up with each other. But there are cards in here that can cover multiple cases by themselves. It makes me want to rip through a couple cases again. But I'm fighting the urge because I don't have the time to list the singles right now. These big cards are going to continue to feed the demand for these hobby and jumbo boxes. The majority of people opening are going to get destroyed. But there will be enough fire cards pulled to keep people coming back. Just like those scratcher tickets that people can't stop buying.

The best way to evaluate a product is to look at the average return. The reason so much wax is criminally overpriced is because of the number of cards that can pay for a case.

If wax prices for Flagship stay the same, even with everything released after the season, we are talking 2018-19 level prices at the very least. Unless you think Cooper is the next Luka, that doesn't make sense.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by vollybal

Well the Fedex truck dropped off the pre Sell 3x Hobby boxes I ordered around noon and I opened them up. Sorry for the side way photos, did not have the time to correct.


Crap ton of inserts and RCs. Nothing really big numbered wise.

In the 1st box I got an auto and relic(both of Ayo Dosunmu)...


2nd Box had Egor Demin CONTEMPORARY MARKS RC Auto and 2 Cooper Flagg Cards(1980-81 and Base)
Attachment 568186

Attachment 568187 Attachment 568188


3rd box was the winner:


Attachment 568189
COOPER FLAGG MOJO BASE FROM SILVER PACK!!



And Then This Popped out of a pack...


Attachment 568190
COPPER FLAGG CONTEMPORARY MARKS RC AUTO!!!



So yeah I think I did just fine with the Pre-Order.

Victory!

[boxbuster7]

product hit pulled before people even get their topps.com orders

y'all never learn

[mudder35]

Anybody else annoyed that the card backs aren't uniform between horizontal and vertical cards?

Also, not a huge fan that the insert segregation. Definitely understand the idea of having a couple insert sets that are product exclusive especially if they're rare, but why make virtually all of them that way when they don't look or feel special? I don't think anyone is really motivated to buy more hobbys or jumbo in pursuit of completing their "New School" or "No Limit" sets. Then you've got the "Stars of NBA" set that is hobby/jumbo exclusive after Topps has spent several years conditioning us to despise seeing them in our packs. Just seems strange...

[Asian62150]

Regardless of what these are going for, I'm selling what I can to save up for Chrome.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

The best way to evaluate a product is to look at the average return. The reason so much wax is criminally overpriced is because of the number of cards that can pay for a case.

If wax prices for Flagship stay the same, even with everything released after the season, we are talking 2018-19 level prices at the very least. Unless you think Cooper is the next Luka, that doesn't make sense.

The average return does not matter to this current market. It may matter to you when you are evaluating if you want to open or not. But not to the overall market. Go take a peak at something like Topps Dynasty and see what the average return on a box is. Then look at what a case costs. I completely agree that if I am opening something I want to know the average. I actually went a step further when I would open in mass. I liked to price out the worst possible return on something like flagship. A baseline for me to know how much additional value I needed to break even on the worst possible boxes. But again, this is 2025 and this market does not work like that. Too much emotion involved in purchases.

[oldgoldy97]

Looking at prices on eBay makes my head hurt.

10X what they are worth in a lot of cases.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by jfan2024

You're right, people will always take the top 5 cards in the product, dream big on beating the million to one odds of pulling it, and buy it. Fanatics should just put out a 500k bounty on the Flagg/Harper/Knueppel triple auto 1/1 and all of a sudden jumbos will be $600+.

The reality of opening a hobby/jumbo is that after the rip high, realizing you have a stack of worthless base, deciding whether it's even worth using an entire pack of sleeves and toploaders to sleeve up rookies like Fears and Maluach, and maybe 2 cards that are worth listing and selling to get like $40 back. This is my rinse and repeat reality, and hence I'll just open one jumbo, hopefully that will be enough to complete a base set, and sell the rest. As a Nets fan, I've been trying to buy Egor Demin singles but he falls into the category I mentioned. His bonus pack mojo only sells for $2, so it's not even really worth listing by the average person. But god bless all the people who do bother listing and shipping sub-$5 cards

Just wait until they hit COMC, should be a month or two tops.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by mudder35

Anybody else annoyed that the card backs aren't uniform between horizontal and vertical cards?

Also, not a huge fan that the insert segregation. Definitely understand the idea of having a couple insert sets that are product exclusive especially if they're rare, but why make virtually all of them that way when they don't look or feel special? I don't think anyone is really motivated to buy more hobbys or jumbo in pursuit of completing their "New School" or "No Limit" sets. Then you've got the "Stars of NBA" set that is hobby/jumbo exclusive after Topps has spent several years conditioning us to despise seeing them in our packs. Just seems strange...

Horizontal can get bent and the card backs are horrible.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by premium1981

The average return does not matter to this current market. It may matter to you when you are evaluating if you want to open or not. But not to the overall market. Go take a peak at something like Topps Dynasty and see what the average return on a box is. Then look at what a case costs. I completely agree that if I am opening something I want to know the average. I actually went a step further when I would open in mass. I liked to price out the worst possible return on something like flagship. A baseline for me to know how much additional value I needed to break even on the worst possible boxes. But again, this is 2025 and this market does not work like that. Too much emotion involved in purchases.

That's what I meant, I see now that you are talking exclusively about box prices regarding supply and demand.

I agree 100% with you, I don't think the ROI here is much better than anything Panini has released in the last year or so. But people are excited about Topps return and that's going to keep driving prices up.

[RainCityShecks]

Busted my single jumbo pre-order - fun rip at that price point!




Love that black Magic

Rainbow foil Coop -



Was gonna open the two hobbies I ordered yesterday but after a few hours now (from opening the jumbo) I’m not so sure.


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[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Looking at prices on eBay makes my head hurt.

10X what they are worth in a lot of cases.

The sold listings are way funnier IMO

[Bob Ross]

Flagg autos for everyone!

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

The sold listings are way funnier IMO

Chances they are propped up by the big company behind it?

[oldgoldy97]

I mean, we all know the NBA is the new age boxing. Ripe with fraud.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Flagg autos for everyone!

umm , what line do I need to stand in?

I think I am in the Davion Mitchell redemption line.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

The sold listings are way funnier IMO

Won’t be so funny when the breaker johns get their cards back to list.

[boxbuster7]

flagg autos are barely cracking 1k

pretty surprised

[Bob Ross]

Haha I missed that the Flagg base 1/1 was hit already.

Good times!!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

flagg autos are barely cracking 1k

pretty surprised

Mostly sticker autos and the fact that 20,000+ more autos will hit the market over the next 12 months will do that!

[glassofwater]

I just opened my 2 pre order jumbos. 1 jumbo I hit this. Is this a good auto?




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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

I just opened my 2 pre order jumbos. 1 jumbo I hit this. Is this a good auto?




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Nice on card hit!

[boxbuster7]

thats from the silver packs which are extras, right?