First Buzz: 2025-26 Topps NBA basketball cards

[yiguiri2002]

I think a conservative estimate is that there are 120K Hobby boxes and 60K Jumbo boxes (and that's a very conservative one). So, 10K Hobby cases and 7.5K Jumbo cases.

During the Panini era, 5K cases was considered a mass produced product. This is at least 3 times as big.

[mfisher27]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I think a conservative estimate is that there are 120K Hobby boxes and 60K Jumbo boxes (and that's a very conservative one). So, 10K Hobby cases and 7.5K Jumbo cases.

During the Panini era, 5K cases was considered a mass produced product. This is at least 3 times as big.

I'm not disagreeing with your numbers but is the 5k cases being mass produced a similar product like Base Donruss/Hoops or Prizm?

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by wxguy44

I don't think those odds are correct on the pdf. Respectfully, I also think the other calculations in this thread are off.

Assuming even distribution for hobby & jumbo, for an insert set like the Rookie Roundball Remnants Foilfractor, there are 20 total cards. So, even distribution would be 10 in hobby & 10 in jumbo.

Hobby: 10 cards x 246000 = 2,460,000 packs

2,460,000 packs / 20 packs in hobby box = 123,000 hobby boxes

Jumbo: 10 cards x 62785 = 627,850 packs

627,785 packs / 10 packs in jumbo box = 62,785 jumbo boxes

It's probably not exact, so you can play around with the other foilfractor insert sets to get an idea of print run ranges.

Right. This is what I roughly estimated in these two posts:

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Math time with Uncle Bob.

Using the "THE DAILY DRIBBLE" insert which is Hobby only, the Foilfractor 1/1 odds, and the assumption that the Hobby box makeup is identical to MLB Topps Hobby of 20 packs per box:

THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE checklist: 40
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE Foilfractor odds: 1:133,934
Packs per Hobby Box: 20
Hobby Boxes made: 267,868

For funsies, here is the same insert math for Jumbo boxes:
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE checklist: 40
THE DOUBLE DRIBBLE Foilfractor odds: 1:33706
Packs per Jumbo Box: 10
Jumbo Boxes made: 134,824

These are the only SKU's THE DAILY DRIBBLE INSERT is in so do what you will with these box numbers.

Your friend,
Bob

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Hence why I say do what you will.

If you wanna make it easy and assume this insert is split evenly odds wise between the two, I'd chop each box number in half-ish. Which still equals: a fvcking sh1tton of this junk is produced. Pardon my french.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by mfisher27

I'm not disagreeing with your numbers but is the 5k cases being mass produced a similar product like Base Donruss/Hoops or Prizm?

Either works, I actually think they printed more Prizm than Donruss/Hoops last season

[Tonic3]

The major sites now pre-selling the Hobby and Jumbos state that they come with Promo packs. 1 promo pack per hobby and 2 promo packs per Jumbo. Any idea what these will be?

Silver packs? Topps chrome preview packs? Hmmmmm

[glassofwater]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

The major sites now pre-selling the Hobby and Jumbos state that they come with Promo packs. 1 promo pack per hobby and 2 promo packs per Jumbo. Any idea what these will be?

Silver packs? Topps chrome preview packs? Hmmmmm

Pretty sure they mojo packs ie chrome packs of the 45th anniversary set.

[Americards]

Originally Posted by Mattsurewood

So about 6,100 hobby cases based on this.

Just enough for Layton

[glassofwater]

Those not familiar with mojo packs this what they are like. I like how they are on card in baseball they are sticker autos




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[bub838]

guy on reddit did a break down of the print run, jives with 10k hobby, 8ish jumbo
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseballcar...and_deep_dive/

[Mattsurewood]

Originally Posted by bub838

guy on reddit did a break down of the print run, jives with 10k hobby, 8ish jumbo
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseballcar...and_deep_dive/

This is excellent, thanks for sharing

Approximately 155 Golden Mirror Image Variations, I think these will carry weight for sure.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

Those not familiar with mojo packs this what they are like. I like how they are on card in baseball they are sticker autos




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That is awesome! I have always loved the silver pack cards, but the autographs in baseball have not looked great with those stickers slapped on them. On card will be huge.

[wxguy44]

There's 4 cards per pack in the silver packs, right? I wonder how the print run shakes out for those.

[oldgoldy97]

I think people are so excited for this we might even see a break posted in the box break section.

[Tonic3]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

I think people are so excited for this we might even see a break posted in the box break section.

I'm sure we will which is a refreshing change of pace. People being able to buy direct from Topps at prices that are now less than the going rate may encourage people to rip some boxes.

As the hobby continues to adjust the hope is more and more boxes end up in the hands of actual collectors at "reduced" prices rather than being fed to breakers/flippers who only add cost to the hobby. One can only hope

[cms11]

Originally Posted by bub838

guy on reddit did a break down of the print run, jives with 10k hobby, 8ish jumbo
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseballcar...and_deep_dive/

"Base = 1,263,000 copies ea"

WOW.

[4mightyQuinn]

around how many did they print 2009-10?

[Kodiak10]

Originally Posted by 4mightyQuinn

around how many did they print 2009-10?

Not sure but total Pop graded for Stephen Curry:

BGS- 2600
PSA- 5600

So if that's about 50% graded you can figure on about 16.5K total

Topps Chrome is /999 with 575 graded between PSA & BGS for Stephen Curry


If you want to compare numbers I would lean towards 2003-04 Lebron Rookie year assuming this was the largest print run of the Topps era for base. Guessing here.....

03-04 Lebron Topps RC is around 16K graded between BGS & PSA. So maybe 30K total? This doesn't include 1st Editions which is probably another 1.5K produced. Spit balling here but you get the idea of the massive difference

[threepointplay]

Originally Posted by 4mightyQuinn

around how many did they print 2009-10?

I have not seen any analysis; but there is an excellent account on instagram called cardchannel that has been providing analysis on print runs for a historic basketball card releases for a while now. You can find it here:

https://www.instagram.com/cardchannel/

It will give you a feel to where this release sits with other ones historically.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by glassofwater

Those not familiar with mojo packs this what they are like. I like how they are on card in baseball they are sticker autos




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That card looks awesome.

[Bob Ross]

I haven't been following too closely. Can someone explain to me these silver packs? Are we getting them with the online orders of hobby and Jumbo?

Thanks,
Bob

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by cms11

"Base = 1,263,000 copies ea"

WOW.

Originally Posted by Kodiak10

Not sure but total Pop graded for Stephen Curry:

BGS- 2600
PSA- 5600

So if that's about 50% graded you can figure on about 16.5K total

Topps Chrome is /999 with 575 graded between PSA & BGS for Stephen Curry


If you want to compare numbers I would lean towards 2003-04 Lebron Rookie year assuming this was the largest print run of the Topps era for base. Guessing here.....

03-04 Lebron Topps RC is around 16K graded between BGS & PSA. So maybe 30K total? This doesn't include 1st Editions which is probably another 1.5K produced. Spit balling here but you get the idea of the massive difference

That is a crazy difference, if true.

You'd think Topps would juice up 2025 Topps to get the hobby excited about it. But instead, they are treating it like any other random mass-produced paper release while printing it way more than in the past.

[RainCityShecks]

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

I haven't been following too closely. Can someone explain to me these silver packs? Are we getting them with the online orders of hobby and Jumbo?

Thanks,
Bob

Per D&A - Jumbo listing

2 Promo Packs Per Box! (guessing these are the silver packs)

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Tonic3

The major sites now pre-selling the Hobby and Jumbos state that they come with Promo packs. 1 promo pack per hobby and 2 promo packs per Jumbo. Any idea what these will be?

Silver packs? Topps chrome preview packs? Hmmmmm

Do we know if these are also included in the preorders from Topps?

[bub838]

If it's structured like Flagship Baseball, which so far this product has been- you'll get one silver pack in hobby and two in jumbo. They're a box topper with four chrome cards with the mojo motif. Doesn't matter where you buy them from.

[wilsonsingles]

Originally Posted by bub838

If it's structured like Flagship Baseball, which so far this product has been- you'll get one silver pack in hobby and two in jumbo. They're a box topper with four chrome cards with the mojo motif. Doesn't matter where you buy them from.

would agree with this is the most likely scenario.
included inside the sealed boxes like Flagship baseball