We all know the Guardians and Reds aren't good teams, right?

[fabiani12333]

They both benefitted from epic collapses. The Guardians benefitted from the collapse of the Tigers, and to a lesser extent the Astros. The Reds benefitted from the collapse of the Mets, and to a lesser extent the D-Backs and Giants trading away key players at the deadline.

Here -- I'll prove it:


2025 Guardians:
Pythagorean W-L: 80-82, 643 Runs, 649 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 3.97 -- ranked 27th
xwOBA: .299 -- ranked 30th
Runs allowed per game: 4.01 -- ranked 7th
xERA: 3.98 -- ranked 11th

They have only two hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or more -- meaning, only two hitters who aren't at least average.

They have only one starting pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched and a ERA+ of 100 or more.

Their record prior to September was 68-67. They went 20-7 in September in large part because they beat up on crappy teams. They started the month losing 2 of 3 to the playoff-bound Red Sox, but then only played one other playoff team the rest of the month -- the cratering Tigers, who went 7-17 in September.

The Guardians aren't a bad team, but they're a .500 team pretending to be a good team.


2025 Reds:
Pythagorean W-L: 85-77, 716 Runs, 681 Runs Allowed
Runs per game: 4.42 -- ranked 16th
xwOBA: .306 -- ranked 27th
Runs allowed per game: 4.20 -- ranked 11th
xERA: 3.97 -- ranked 9th

They had no hitter with an OPS+ of 110 or better -- they had only 3 hitters with at least 150 PA and a 100 OPS+. Pretty pathetic, if you ask me.

They did have very good starting pitching, though -- 3 starters with at least 100 innings pitched an ERA+ of 137 or higher.

It took the Mets going a combined 21-32 in August and September for the Reds to be a playoff team. They were .500 all season long -- very consistently so:

March: 2-2
April: 14-13
May: 13-15
June: 15-11
July: 13-12
August: 12-15
September: 14-11

The Reds have good pitching, but they're not a good team.


If you ask me, I'd rather see the Mets and Astros in October, but sometimes middling teams get lucky.

[JustinVerlander07]

The Guardians are one of the most charmed teams in major league history. I believe there is a stat out there that they had 16 wins more than expected. However, I think most of their fanbase knows they played over their heads (they finished with a negative run differential to boot).

Doesn't matter anymore, though. Baseball playoffs are weird, anyone can make a run.

[Chris Lyle]

I don't know that anyone is trying to say either of these teams are juggernauts, but I'm not sure your point.

Is it wrong if the Guards ride their pitching to say the ALCS or even the World Series, because numbers say they're a pretender?

[AnthonyCorona]

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

[OhioLawyerF5]

It's not about who was better averaged over a season, it's about who's best now. Why would you rather see a Mets team that is playing horribly? Those numbers you posted are skewed significantly by stats put up in April and May. After 162 games, a team isn't the same team it was back then. I want to see who's hot and a better team NOW. Cleveland is a better team RIGHT NOW than the Astros, and the Reds are a better team RIGHT NOW than the Mets.

[SaveMeTheGum]

The NY Giants were horrible heading into the 2007 NFL playoffs...

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

The Guardians are one of the most charmed teams in major league history. I believe there is a stat out there that they had 16 wins more than expected. However, I think most of their fanbase knows they played over their heads (they finished with a negative run differential to boot).

Doesn't matter anymore, though. Baseball playoffs are weird, anyone can make a run.

Diehard fan here and I will be the first to admit this very same team could have been a 90-100 loss team, but alas here we are with a chance. Same goes for the Reds I believe.

Hopefully for the big market lovers the Guards and Reds will get taken out this week and it will all be over

[Bosoxfan5990]

It doesn't matter once the playoffs start.

[hammertime]

[DioBrando]

Trust me, no one in Cincinnati actually thinks the reds are a good team. They lucked into the playoffs and will most likely get swept by the dodgers.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by DioBrando

Trust me, no one in Cincinnati actually thinks the reds are a good team. They lucked into the playoffs and will most likely get swept by the dodgers.

That's what I assumed. I would rather have seen a Mets-Dodgers series, and I'm not a big-market snob -- I just don't think the Reds are a good or compelling team.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

It's not about who was better averaged over a season, it's about who's best now. Why would you rather see a Mets team that is playing horribly? Those numbers you posted are skewed significantly by stats put up in April and May. After 162 games, a team isn't the same team it was back then. I want to see who's hot and a better team NOW. Cleveland is a better team RIGHT NOW than the Astros, and the Reds are a better team RIGHT NOW than the Mets.

That means no World Series titles for the 2000 Yankees (13-17 in September) or 2006 Cardinals (25-31 combined in Aug and Sept).

And the Reds haven't been hot -- they went 3-3 in their last 6 games, which they needed badly to win.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That means no World Series titles for the 2000 Yankees (13-17 in September) or 2006 Cardinals (25-31 combined in Aug and Sept).

And the Reds haven't been hot -- they went 3-3 in their last 6 games, which they needed badly to win.

You're taking what he said a little out of context. He didn't say anyone that overcame a cold streak like your examples and still made the playoffs should be out or something.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

Is it wrong if the Guards ride their pitching to say the ALCS or even the World Series, because numbers say they're a pretender?

Out of all the past Indians/Guardians playoff teams, this has got to be the weakest. Pray they don't make a deep playoff run, because it will need to be ugly -- I'm talking key injuries to opposing teams and such.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Chris Lyle

You're taking what he said a little out of context. He didn't say anyone that overcame a cold streak like your examples and still made the playoffs should be out or something.

He said more recent play should dictate who is the better team and who should get the last playoff spot. The Reds -- who have consistently been .500 this season and have played better than the Mets recently -- should get the last playoff spot. You can't make the argument the Reds are a good team -- they haven't been all season, including now.

[Twalk1975]

The best players sometimes don't show up in the playoffs, and sometimes the best teams don't either. I'll be pleased with good games.

[hammertime]

Having some scrappy, small market teams make it in is good for the game. It may even save the 2027 season.

[jdandns]

No one knows anything about any of this.
The results of the upcoming games are all that matters and will contain the only useful information.

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Out of all the past Indians/Guardians playoff teams, this has got to be the weakest. Pray they don't make a deep playoff run, because it will need to be ugly -- I'm talking key injuries to opposing teams and such.

I never said they're strong. You just seem really bent on they have no chance unless people get hurt and it's going to be ugly. You don't understand playoff baseball if that is the case.

I'm a fan so won't be praying they don't make a run and I really don't get your end game here. You act like they don't qualify somehow and it's a travesty if they make some sort of run

Hopefully for you the Reds get beat by the Dodgers and the Guards get beat by the juggernaut Tigers and you can say see I told you

For the record checkout the year 2007 for the then Indians. A lot of the same make up as a team. Maybe not statistically as bad, but that team played over their head.

Or the 2013 Indians who had to basically win out the last week of the season to make the one game wild card and they lost.

2016 even statistically not as bad but remember guys like Marlon Byrd, Juan Uribe, Tommy Hunter and a few others help this team be good at the right times and the pitching was out of their minds until the ran out of gas in the last of the World Series. Better team yes, were they the best team in the AL on paper (probably not) but if they win game 7 doesn't matter they still would've gotten the trophy.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Having some scrappy, small market teams make it in is good for the game. It may even save the 2027 season.

Oh sir that's where you're wrong. Nothing is saving the 2027 season.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Having some scrappy, small market teams make it in is good for the game. It may even save the 2027 season.

But at the end of the day, the small-market, low-budget teams don't win championships -- the numbers are conclusive on this. You've got to be in the upper half of payroll to have a shot.

Having token small-market teams like the Brewers, Reds and Indians make the playoffs -- with the help of 6 Wild Card spots now -- doesn't mean the game is particularly balanced competitively. It just means some big spenders like the Mets and Astros can crap the bed sometimes and let the scrub teams sneak in.

[ClevelandIC]

The only thing I would mention about the Reds is they are prime to upset the Wild Card Round. They have the pitching to win exactly two games. Hunter Greene and some combo of Nick Lodolo and maybe Chase Burns out of the pen can steal another game. Not predicting it, just saying the path is there.

[StlBen]

And when the Reds beat the Dodgers?....

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by StlBen

And when the Reds beat the Dodgers?....

Most of the Dodgers were hurt or something horrible happened

[Chris Lyle]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

But at the end of the day, the small-market, low-budget teams don't win championships -- the numbers are conclusive on this. You've got to be in the upper half of payroll to have a shot.

Having token small-market teams like the Brewers, Reds and Indians make the playoffs -- with the help of 6 Wild Card spots now -- doesn't mean the game is particularly balanced competitively. It just means some big spenders like the Mets and Astros can crap the bed sometimes and let the scrub teams sneak in.

Tell me again how you're not a big market snob as you put it.