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#101 |
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This right here is the biggest issue in the grading space. If you read the grading standards, they are all almost identical. It use to be because of the registry, but we are in an age where registry matters very little. The fact is, PSA has done a great job leveraging their slab with the hobby and platforms. They provide financial support to big content creators to promote their slabs. Every tracking platform uses them as the standard. If the market viewed Gem Mint as Gem Mint for the major players, it doesn’t, PSA would likely not be at the top based on slab, TAT and CS. The red and white label is like a badge of honor for most. I am just glad I know how to maximize my grading play using them and BGS and CGC.
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#102 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: CA
Posts: 5,198
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#103 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 1,174
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I'm a collector for the most part, but since most people are talking about selling/flipping and focusing on PSA 10s, you have to also factor in that PSA's 3-4 month actual turnaround can make other grading companies a far better "value" for flippers or frequent sellers, especially for cheaper modern cards. Napkin math, but if a raw $10 modern baseball card in a PSA 10 sells for $100, and the same card in an SGC 10 sells for $85, then most will think the PSA offers "more value". However, look at it this way, the PSA 10 actually doesn't offer more value since the flipper can sell the same SGC 10 3-4 times before you even get the single lone PSA 10 back from PSA. Ignoring shipping costs to/from (and PSA’s return shipping is more expensive too): PSA 10: $10 Raw + $22 grading - $100 Value - $32 costs = $68 value. SGC 10: $10 Raw + $15 grading - $85 Value - $25 costs = $60 value. Yes, the PSA 10 has +$8 in value above, but the PSA card takes 3-4 months to get back. In that same time, the SGC seller has sold that card and submitted another two or even three more times and gotten it back from SGC before PSA has even returned your original sub in the same time frame. (And that assumes PSA doesn't give you an inexplicable grade due to their ridiculous inconsistency, much more than the other companies, largely due to PSA's huge volume). So take the SGC 10 net value, and multiply it by 3 or 4 because you can flip it again and again, and have sold it three times before PSA even emails you that "estimates are just estimates" etc., because you reached out to customer service after 4 months. And that's the best case scenario when you hit 10s on each submission. The lack of a PSA 9.5 grade also means that you have one chance to make money, where PSA 9s often sell for less than raw, and with SGC you still have an SGC 9.5 chance, which can hedge your risk a bit too, all with a cheaper grading fee. And even though PSA technically has an 8.5 grade, they almost never issue it. Making the step down from a PSA 9, an 8 in the vast majority of scenarios. Even more reason to gets screwed on a submission. When PSA (far more than any other grading company) gives you inexplicable grades like 6s and 8s, you're toast, and you paid a higher grading fee and 3-4x longer turnaround time to even find out you're toast. Cheap modern cards are the vast majority of most bulk flipper submissions, so "value" is completely relative, and varies based on quite a few things. PSA also announcing increased turnaround times along with a price increase, and not fixing the huge issue of taking a full month in most cases to even enter your card into the system (and only then the clock starts) makes other grading companies even more of a value over PSA, not less in this type of scenario.
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#104 |
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For ultra-modern, SGC can't compete. For example, here is a 2023-24 Panini Prizm #136 Victor Wembanyama.
Raw - Averages 15-$20 SGC 10 - averages around $50 (Most recent sales have been $40) PSA 10 - averages over $80 Not only that, but PSA still has a higher gem rate. PSA 10 - 58.6% SGC 10 - 37.4% Maybe PSA has a lower gem rate now with their new standards, but they are at least 10% higher than SGC. This is also giving PSA 10's more value compared to SGC for recently graded modern cards. For 1980's and before, SGC is the only way to go. Even SGC 10's are gaining traction against PSA 10's for 80's cards. I love SGC, but there is no value for modern cards right now. Edit: The only opportunity for SGC is to have the first cards graded. If a set just comes out, send to SGC immediately, and get on eBay before the PSA slabs start coming.
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Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message! Last edited by discodanman45; 09-27-2025 at 04:31 PM. |
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#105 | |
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 2,237
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It’s true—but most people don’t realize it yet because they are still focused on their few 10 “thrills” in their order. It’s the combination of higher prices and lower gem rates that have flipped the scales to “the house” on most average orders over time. In 2019 when graders stuck to the grading scale and gem rates were what they were, bulk grading was $12/card. Typically, on a 100-card ultra-modern order, people could expect to spend $1200 and add $3500-4000 of value to their cards with the PSA grading service. That’s a +$2300-2800/order! THAT is a great ROI—even if you are holding that value as a collector. Those who graded in 2019 are still blinded by the above and have yet to fully acknowledge the following… Today, (assuming you’re sending in the same types of cards) that same 100-card bulk order will cost $2200. With gem rates at or around 30% and lower premiums for those gem cards, and the values of non-gems TANKED, that 100-card bulk order is returning around (slightly below) $2000 in added value once you factor in the losses that 70% of your cards in the order will take. We are now at -$200 on the return—(This is assuming you don’t take their 60% comp offers and give them another 40% of your “ROI” ceiling!) They have managed to milk every bit of that profit away from sellers through their 2 controllable variables (grading price and gem rates). Now they created a 3rd variable and have people selling cards back to them at under-market prices just to claw back some of those losses sooner. This is how the house is winning now. You could still possibly end up ahead on small orders, but the more cards you grade, the more that pendulum swings to PSA’s favor—not the submitter. |
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#106 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 1,174
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PSA 10: $20 Raw + $22 grading - $80 Value - $42 costs = $58 value. SGC 10: $20 Raw + $15 grading - $50 Value - $35 costs = $15 value. Even in your example above, that conclusion of "SGC can't compete" ignores time. After one month: PSA 10: $20 Raw + $22 grading - $80 Value - $42 costs = $0 value (PSA hasn't graded it graded yet) SGC 10: $20 Raw + $15 grading - $50 Value - $35 costs = $15 value. After two months: PSA 10: $20 Raw + $22 grading - $80 Value - $42 costs = $0 value (PSA hasn't graded it graded yet) SGC 10: $20 Raw + $15 grading - $50 Value - $35 costs = $15 value x 2 = $30 value (sold the second time) After three months: PSA 10: $20 Raw + $22 grading - $80 Value - $42 costs = $0 value (PSA hasn't graded it graded yet) SGC 10: $20 Raw + $15 grading - $50 Value - $35 costs = $15 value x 3 = $45 value (sold the third time) After four months: PSA 10: $20 Raw + $22 grading - $80 Value - $42 costs = $58 value SGC 10: $20 Raw + $15 grading - $50 Value - $35 costs = $15 value x 4 = $60 value (sold the fourth time) Time is a factor when the PSA submitter waits 3-4 months for a return, and the SGC submitter has sold that card 3-4 times and moved on to the next. Even the gem rate is misleading because SGC has a 9.5. When PSA 10s aren't 10s, the next available grade is a PSA 9 of that even that exact card, a PSA 9 typically sells for about the grading fee or slightly less (~$20-22). But SGC also has an SGC 9.5 which sells for about $22-30, aka more than the SGC $15 grading fee.. For ultra modern cards like this, time is of the essence. Typically these cards spike in value early, and there's a race to have the first graded cards available for peak value. As more cards get graded, graded prices overall go down and volume increases, making a 3-4 month turnaround a key factor in determining true "value". The difference in PSA value needs to be 4x if the turnaround of PSA cards is 4x as long.
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Sports Card Organizer Software for Mac & Windows www.InakaSoftware.com/SportsCardDatabase |
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#107 | |
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Let's say the card has a 50% chance for a SGC 10 and a 50% chance for a SGC 9.5. The reality for that card it is much more likely to get a 9.5/9. Shipping is not free and plays a role into the calculations. PSA could have less shipping if you drop at GameStop. SGC 10: $20 Raw + $17 grading - $50 Value - $37 costs = $13 value. SGC 9.5: $20 Raw + $17 grading - $25 Value - $37 costs = -$12 value This is not worth the risk to use SGC grading on a card like this. You will break even if you submit that card 4 times if you are lucky. PSA is worth the chance with their high gem rate for that card and set. I did edit before you replied and said, "The only opportunity for SGC is to have the first cards graded. If a set just comes out, send to SGC immediately, and get on eBay before the PSA slabs start coming." This is the only opportunity I would use SGC. Get cards on the market before PSA slabs are available. $20 cards should not be graded for ultra-modern period right now. It is not worth the risk. Vintage definitely is with SGC. You can turn a $10 card into a $70 card if you get a SGC/PSA collectors grade.
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Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message! Last edited by discodanman45; 09-27-2025 at 07:48 PM. |
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#108 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 1,174
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When you factor in turnaround time, the default that PSA offers more value is false in many cases, even with ultra-modern. Heck, I'd go so far as to say in most cases if other grading companies like SGC can return cards in one month vs. PSA's four months, that's a huge determining factor for "value". It's probably also why Collector's Universe killed the 1-2 week turnaround for SGC customers that we used to enjoy. It's the Jon Lovitzing of grading from the movie "Big": ![]() ![]() Since PSA's turnaround is currently 4x longer than SGC, the graded value difference from a PSA 10 to an SGC 10 would need to be 4x more for a PSA 10 over an SGC 10 for a default value upgrade, but it's not the case at all, even in ultra-modern. Are there really a huge amount of PSA 10s selling for $400 and SGC 10s of the same card selling for $100 in ultra modern? It's not the norm. Flippers want to well, flip cards quickly and move on. They don't want to hold them or tie up their $$$ in inventory. So waiting 4 months or more is a major factor that most people ignore for value. That's all I wanted to point out. When I read things like "Of course the other options don't provide the value" or how SGC can't compete, etc. Not to mention PSAs terrible grading inconsistencies, lack of a 9.5 grade, more expensive return shipping, more expensive grading costs, etc. I just think the turnaround time needs to be factored in big time. Along with grading inconsistencies, PSA's, higher grading fees, etc. Thus, I expect Collector's Universe to increase SGC's turnaround times and increase fees as well, Jon Lovtiz style in the (near?) future.
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#109 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 6,736
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#110 |
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Join Date: May 2024
Posts: 1,829
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I'm done with grading for the time being. Like others have said the incentive just isn't there anymore unless it's a super high end monster of Judge or Ohtani. I am just one touching everything and what I do sell is Raw. Let some other sucker lose grading fees + 60% on a card that comes back a PSA 9.
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#111 | |
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__________________
Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message! |
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#112 | |
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Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Somewhere In Time
Posts: 23,848
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#113 | |
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I am now trying to replace any card under $100 in a slab with a ungraded version that I am putting into binders or Zion Magpros. It is a fun project and is taking me away from the grading insanity!
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Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message! |
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#114 |
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I'll add this somewhat random point - Am I the only one finding myself grading way more $5 cards with PSA than $20-$50 cards lately? Meaning this - PSA 8 or PSA 9 value of a "$5 card" is still typically around $20 from what I'm seeing. But I also see PSA 8 or PSA 9 value of a "$20 card" seems to be around $20 lately too ... Whereas before a PSA 9 would add value to these mid-tier cards, I'm finding the value is minimal or non-existent right now for these. $5 cards are safer 'cause at least you can't lose too much with 9's & graded adds value no matter what. *Note not talking about generic/average low end stuff, but more specific type cards like 90's/2000's refractors or recent star type low end parallels/inserts. Higher grading fee making the $20 - $50 type cards way more risky in my opinion since market is showing 9's a lot of the time barely add any value.
Last edited by MavsRChamps; 09-28-2025 at 08:41 PM. |
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#115 | |
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Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 2,237
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Yes they are safer for sure. BUT…it appears that they are a lot tougher to sell. I see a lot of these cards available for long periods of time. People would rather buy a $5 raw copy to keep raw or try for a 10 in one of their own subs than a $20 copy of a $5 card in a “missed” PSA 9 slab or below. Hopefully your strategy works better on the 80’s-90’s cards. You are correct though—the old way would see you profiting on 9’s, breaking even on 8’s and making bank on 10’s. Grading & selling cards was a no brainer in that system. |
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#116 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 307
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#117 | |
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Join Date: Sep 2021
Posts: 1,174
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For ultra modern, once again, depends. For a brand new product released on June 1st for example, the SGC submitter will have many grading opportinutes (one SGC graded card back on July 1st, another SGC graded card back on August 1st, and another SGC graded card back on September 1st) where as the PSA cards won't go en masse on eBay until about mid-October when the PSA bulk graded cards appear on eBay. For ultra modern cards like this, time is of the essence. Typically these cards spike in value early, and there's a race to have the first graded cards available for peak value. So yeah, maybe in November, SGC slabs are now competing with PSA slabs that people would rather have, but in July-September, those PSA slabs don't even exist because they take forever to get back. So like everything it depends. But turnaround time s a huge factor that most people ignore when making value conclusions.
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#118 |
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Member
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,428
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Or...you just send in cards of the GOATS and it doesn't matter how long it takes for them to come back in your bulk order because odds are they went up substantially while you were waiting the 3/4 months to get them back! That's what I'm experiencing right now delays aren't always a bad thing guys!
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#119 | |
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Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Somewhere In Time
Posts: 23,848
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#120 | |
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I have boxes full of future HOFers like Altuve, Verlander, Kershaw, Lindor, Harper, Trout, etc. that simply are not worth the $22 grading cost right now. I can afford to sit on that stuff for a long time. The price increase is doing what it was intended to do which is kill submissions of that stuff for the time being. When demand for $22 slabs eventually falters, they will have no shortage of cards to fill the gap at a lower price point. |
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#121 | |
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Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Somewhere In Time
Posts: 23,848
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#122 | |
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__________________
Always looking for rarer Rik Smits cards and cards from the 2014-15 Spectra Global Icons set. Send me a message! |
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#123 | |
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Getting mad at PSA for serving the hobby what it wants at a macro level is a moot point. |
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#124 | |
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 2,237
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With this pricing, they are implying that as collectors, we should be buying slabs and not grading cards. The grading prices are going up because they are assuming that cards are being graded to be sold and they want a bigger cut of that sale. They need to understand that collectors who sub cards to them are grading cards to KEEP them and thus taking a straight loss on those costs—until the point in which they decide to stop collecting and start selling their collection. They are banking on collectors buying more cards that are already graded and cutting them out of the grading process. It’s funny that their whole company name is Collectors…but they are mainly pushing their core products/services to Resellers. |
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#125 | |
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I don't see why they couldn't rotate out limited specials on that stuff, say, 1970, 1980, and 1990 sets for two weeks, then 1971, 1981, and 1991... It wouldn't materially contribute to backlog while throwing a bone to set collectors. Or just maybe it's now such a small part of the business model that they just don't care. |
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