2025 Topps Chrome Baseball Logofractor: Excited about buying?

[cbeauch87]

Originally Posted by Chrominator

What did these cost 1st year? 50?

Yessir. Still have my 10 collecting dust in the closet.

[evileddie]

If anybody gets any cool Matt Shaw and wants to sell hit me up.

[ewokpelts]

Originally Posted by evileddie

If anybody gets any cool Matt Shaw and wants to sell hit me up.

It's not from this set, but I have a matt shaw topps now parallel from the japan series.

[Badgers0821]

Still available!

[Boredlawyer]

Some napkin math for your entertainment as the odds have been published.

300 base cards -- let's consider any red /5 a win and any 1/1 rose gold a win. Obviously most red veterans won't pull $100, but let's say they do, to off-set Shohei/Judge higher numbered cards:
1.6% of boxes have a winning base parallel

50 variations - consider any orange /25, black /10, red /5, rose 1/1 a win:
1.8% of boxes have a winning variation parallel

100 total inserts - let's consider any orange /25 or rarer a win. Judge/Shohei higher parallels will do better, but let's consider Seager/Lindor oranges players a wash:
3.6% of boxes have a winning insert parallel

Autographs:
65 card autograph, categorize 10 as good. Autographs fall 1:4 boxes. Let's consider any auto of these 10, and any auto of orange tier or rarer a win:

10/65 * 22.8% (chance at any base to gold auto) = 3.4%
Any auto orange or rarer = 2.2%

So roughly 1:8 boxes should be considered a win.

[dantheman514]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Some napkin math for your entertainment as the odds have been published.

300 base cards -- let's consider any red /5 a win and any 1/1 rose gold a win. Obviously most red veterans won't pull $100, but let's say they do, to off-set Shohei/Judge higher numbered cards:
1.6% of boxes have a winning base parallel

50 variations - consider any orange /25, black /10, red /5, rose 1/1 a win:
1.8% of boxes have a winning variation parallel

100 total inserts - let's consider any orange /25 or rarer a win. Judge/Shohei higher parallels will do better, but let's consider Seager/Lindor oranges players a wash:
3.6% of boxes have a winning insert parallel

Autographs:
65 card autograph, categorize 10 as good. Autographs fall 1:4 boxes. Let's consider any auto of these 10, and any auto of orange tier or rarer a win:

10/65 * 22.8% (chance at any base to gold auto) = 3.4%
Any auto orange or rarer = 2.2%

So roughly 1:8 boxes should be considered a win.

Thanks for the math; this means if you spend a thousand dollars, you should get one box that would be considered a win.

[JAM061200]

It makes me happy to still see Logofractor readily available on the Topps site. Once a sought after product in 2022 for $50 per box. Now $120!!! Are you kidding me?!?!?! The people are really starting to hold back on buying these ridiculous priced boxes. Only available in MLB NYC. Then the people asked "why not on the Topps site for ALL?" Topps obliged. The people then responded, "Take your Logofractor and your prices and SHOVE IT!" Love to see it!

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by JAM061200

It makes me happy to still see Logofractor readily available on the Topps site. Once a sought after product in 2022 for $50 per box. Now $120!!! Are you kidding me?!?!?! The people are really starting to hold back on buying these ridiculous priced boxes. Only available in MLB NYC. Then the people asked "why not on the Topps site for ALL?" Topps obliged. The people then responded, "Take your Logofractor and your prices and SHOVE IT!" Love to see it!

How great is that!

[Osfan81]

Originally Posted by JAM061200

It makes me happy to still see Logofractor readily available on the Topps site. Once a sought after product in 2022 for $50 per box. Now $120!!! Are you kidding me?!?!?! The people are really starting to hold back on buying these ridiculous priced boxes. Only available in MLB NYC. Then the people asked "why not on the Topps site for ALL?" Topps obliged. The people then responded, "Take your Logofractor and your prices and SHOVE IT!" Love to see it!

Last year, they put insert autos in. I got 2 gold Rafaella /50 insert autos. It was weird and random but the odds seem worse of getting an auto this year. I made the mistake of buying 6 boxes this year. Way too much money, I know. Best card I got was a red /5 Manea. Next best was a Shohei buyback. So yeah, when 2nd best card out if $700 is a $20 card, don’t buy.

[CTSportsboy57]

I got 3 parallels and it was still a bloodbath.

Zebby Matthews /99
Manaea /150
Del Castillo /250
no auto. no MVP buyback.

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Some napkin math for your entertainment as the odds have been published.

300 base cards -- let's consider any red /5 a win and any 1/1 rose gold a win. Obviously most red veterans won't pull $100, but let's say they do, to off-set Shohei/Judge higher numbered cards:
1.6% of boxes have a winning base parallel

50 variations - consider any orange /25, black /10, red /5, rose 1/1 a win:
1.8% of boxes have a winning variation parallel

100 total inserts - let's consider any orange /25 or rarer a win. Judge/Shohei higher parallels will do better, but let's consider Seager/Lindor oranges players a wash:
3.6% of boxes have a winning insert parallel

Autographs:
65 card autograph, categorize 10 as good. Autographs fall 1:4 boxes. Let's consider any auto of these 10, and any auto of orange tier or rarer a win:

10/65 * 22.8% (chance at any base to gold auto) = 3.4%
Any auto orange or rarer = 2.2%

So roughly 1:8 boxes should be considered a win.

I like this exercise, but why are you using /5 or better for base and /25 or better for everything else? To be clear, I think using the all /5 assumption is already greatly overstating the odds of getting a winning box and using /25 for everything else is way out of line with reality.

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

I like this exercise, but why are you using /5 or better for base and /25 or better for everything else? To be clear, I think using the all /5 assumption is already greatly overstating the odds of getting a winning box and using /25 for everything else is way out of line with reality.

Because it's ultimately garbage and I didn't feel like spending too much time on it-ha

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Because it's ultimately garbage and I didn't feel like spending too much time on it-ha

Ha! That's a perfect answer. Used to be fun doing these exercises when the point was figuring out whether a given product was a good or bad buy. No it's just degrees of bad.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

Some napkin math for your entertainment as the odds have been published.

300 base cards -- let's consider any red /5 a win and any 1/1 rose gold a win. Obviously most red veterans won't pull $100, but let's say they do, to off-set Shohei/Judge higher numbered cards:
1.6% of boxes have a winning base parallel

50 variations - consider any orange /25, black /10, red /5, rose 1/1 a win:
1.8% of boxes have a winning variation parallel

100 total inserts - let's consider any orange /25 or rarer a win. Judge/Shohei higher parallels will do better, but let's consider Seager/Lindor oranges players a wash:
3.6% of boxes have a winning insert parallel

Autographs:
65 card autograph, categorize 10 as good. Autographs fall 1:4 boxes. Let's consider any auto of these 10, and any auto of orange tier or rarer a win:

10/65 * 22.8% (chance at any base to gold auto) = 3.4%
Any auto orange or rarer = 2.2%

So roughly 1:8 boxes should be considered a win.

You're doing the Lord's work, as usual. Thanks!

[imbluestreak23]

Topps Bob Ross > Topps Logocrapfractor

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

Topps Bob Ross > Topps Logocrapfractor

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ewokpelts]

Sold out on topps.com

[Moss84istheGOAT]

its flat out garbage

[bounty37h]

I was not going to buy a box, have bought a decent amount of basic topps chrome and megas and just didn't see the value in this. I was at the beach for the weekend and came home and my wife had bought me a box of it-I didn't want to ask why but I was concerned about hitting a dud. I need a lot of Chrome base to finish off my set so was at lest excited about that and only hit 2 cards I need. The logofractor packs were next-hit a James Wood in the first pack and assumed that would be my best hit. The other pack had a redemption for an autographed green refractor parallel of Hyeseong Kim! I am lucky to have the greatest wife, and she has also had some good hits from boxes shes picked lately for me-posted last one in the Witt post.

[Lonewolf]

Originally Posted by bounty37h

I was not going to buy a box, have bought a decent amount of basic topps chrome and megas and just didn't see the value in this. I was at the beach for the weekend and came home and my wife had bought me a box of it-I didn't want to ask why but I was concerned about hitting a dud. I need a lot of Chrome base to finish off my set so was at lest excited about that and only hit 2 cards I need. The logofractor packs were next-hit a James Wood in the first pack and assumed that would be my best hit. The other pack had a redemption for an autographed green refractor parallel of Hyeseong Kim! I am lucky to have the greatest wife, and she has also had some good hits from boxes shes picked lately for me-posted last one in the Witt post.

Your box was a lucky exception. Fanatics produced crap like this is a losing proposition 90% of the time at these inflated prices.

[bounty37h]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf

Your box was a lucky exception. Fanatics produced crap like this is a losing proposition 90% of the time at these inflated prices.

100%, that's why I would have never bought it myself. I started to tell my wife it was likely a bad buy but she was excited she got something for me and I didn't want to make her feel bad. If we had been at the shop together and she wanted to buy it I would have advised against. I definitely got lucky with the box and that pull. I have never sold a card before but she is trying to talk me into this one.

[hermanotarjeta]

Down to $99 a box here on BO.

That’s $20 lower than the initial cost of $120.

[bmann33]

Love it - regular chrome blasters sat at 34.99 not selling out for 2-3 weeks at DAs