The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Mentioned this back in the stock market thread about 3 years ago

Don't really check my shares too much as I mainly focus on options for day trading

I think this 4 year term is going to be FNMA's release from conservatorship

When it's released FNMA should fly

Should have bought more back when it was a $1

Something to watch - it was over $7/sh the other day

FNMA finally hit $12

Still high risk high reward but looks like something will happen before EOY

I'm holding full pos but if you can't afford to lose and joined in it's smart to take a little profit here

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Back above 6400 and thought about adding to call position yesterday but didn't

6400 still a key level

I think the next touch of 6500/6505 I'll grab some puts unless flow says otherwise

Still holding remaining calls to 6525

Still have my one. Really should take profit at 6500, but really was going to wait for rate decision. These are 2026 expiry, so I have time to possibly let it ride even if rates aren't cut the next meeting. I'll see how market moves the next two weeks.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Still have my one. Really should take profit at 6500, but really was going to wait for rate decision. These are 2026 expiry, so I have time to possibly let it ride even if rates aren't cut the next meeting. I'll see how market moves the next two weeks.

Good idea depending on how deep ITM or how much time is left

If fed doesn't cut, not sure the market will drop as the dip was bought up pretty quick this week

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Good idea depending on how deep ITM or how much time is left

If fed doesn't cut, not sure the market will drop as the dip was bought up pretty quick this week

625 Strike, September 2026 expiry, so lots of time, hence why it really seems to make sense to possibly wait for rate cut and see.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

625 Strike, September 2026 expiry, so lots of time, hence why it really seems to make sense to possibly wait for rate cut and see.

Plenty of time and deep ITM. I was thinking early 2026

Unless something major happens it should play out nicely

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

FNMA finally hit $12

Still high risk high reward but looks like something will happen before EOY

I'm holding full pos but if you can't afford to lose and joined in it's smart to take a little profit here

Looks like $13 will get here faster than I thought

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

FNMA finally hit $12

Still high risk high reward but looks like something will happen before EOY

I'm holding full pos but if you can't afford to lose and joined in it's smart to take a little profit here

Well damn, $13

No clue on how the IPO will work or if the 2 will be merged at some point

But if they do it right and this shoots up to $30-$60/sh or more over time and they bring dividends back this will be a generational hold

Of course it could all go to $0 if they screw it up, so we shall see how it plays out

[Blazed]

Looks like cuts are coming

Staying long 6525 next target

US Job Growth Collapses To Just 22K, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% Putting 50bps Rate Cut In Play

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Looks like cuts are coming

Staying long 6525 next target

Trimmed @ target

2 calls remaining, keeping them until 6600 or break even

Trading is easy when you have a plan

[Blazed]

Big announcement today @ market close

No info leaked yet

Would be nice to get an AH's pump going into next week

[ajlaxmn]

SPY Gamma expiration tomorrow, 646/647 largest Negative gamma between 645 (positive gamma) and 650 (positive gamma). I would look at 645 for a bounce (possibly SPX 4500 bounce depending on open).

aggregate gamma, negative gamma to 641 (positive gamma), negative gamma all the way to 665 (positive gamma). Large draw is 653 (negative gamma).

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

SPY Gamma expiration tomorrow, 646/647 largest Negative gamma between 645 (positive gamma) and 650 (positive gamma). I would look at 645 for a bounce (possibly SPX 4500 bounce depending on open).

aggregate gamma, negative gamma to 641 (positive gamma), negative gamma all the way to 665 (positive gamma). Large draw is 653 (negative gamma).

Pretty cool. Watching this

[Blazed]

CPI & PPI this week

Staying long, still looking for 6550 > 6600 for now

Worth noting

US consumers with the highest credit scores are starting to fall behind in their debt payments, per Reuters.

August U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22k, badly missing expectations, while the unemployment rate hit a 4-year high of 4.3% - per Bloomberg

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Well damn, $13

No clue on how the IPO will work or if the 2 will be merged at some point

But if they do it right and this shoots up to $30-$60/sh or more over time and they bring dividends back this will be a generational hold

Of course it could all go to $0 if they screw it up, so we shall see how it plays out

I guess we will see $14 just as fast as $13

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Well damn, $13

No clue on how the IPO will work or if the 2 will be merged at some point

But if they do it right and this shoots up to $30-$60/sh or more over time and they bring dividends back this will be a generational hold

Of course it could all go to $0 if they screw it up, so we shall see how it plays out

Originally Posted by Blazed

I guess we will see $14 just as fast as $13

Crazy it got there that fast

Expect some profit taking and a pull back




------------------

SPX @ 6500 needs to break and hold to continue

CPI and PPI will be the next catalyst (Weds & Thurs)

Calling it a day here

Back at it tomorrow

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

I guess we will see $14 just as fast as $13

Picked up 100 shares of this back at 11, solely off what you said. Said heck, don't are if I lose $1000. It's in my Roth account, so I'll just hold for who knows what reason or how long. If it drops back to $10, I'll grab another 100 if I have it.

[ajlaxmn]

SPY Gamma for tomorrow, largest positive strike is 641, doubt we get there, positive Gamma 647 and 649, probably sit there most of the day barring news. Largest negative strike is 650, thing positive gamma up to 653, which is also positive.


Aggregate SPY Gamma, Positive Gamma 641 and 651 with all negative gamma in between. 653 is largest Gamma strike, which is negative.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Picked up 100 shares of this back at 11, solely off what you said. Said heck, don't are if I lose $1000. It's in my Roth account, so I'll just hold for who knows what reason or how long. If it drops back to $10, I'll grab another 100 if I have it.

Nice!

Two things to look forward to - up listing and dividends

If everything goes smooth and as planned it should be a great trade

[Blazed]

If you were watching flow yesterday, it saved SPX 4 times yesterday from further downside

6500 is key level / 6450 > 6439 / 6550 > 6563

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Crazy it got there that fast

Expect some profit taking and a pull back




------------------

SPX @ 6500 needs to break and hold to continue

CPI and PPI will be the next catalyst (Weds & Thurs)

Calling it a day here

Back at it tomorrow

Pull back didn't last long hit $15

Expected IPO price is $30 area

I guess it's headed up there

Expecting some profit taking and sideways/dip trading, but might not get it the way it's being bought up fast on every pull back

[ajlaxmn]

SPY Gamma tomorrow, 648 big positive gamma, after that thin down to 640 (negative gamma), 648 might be a big strike to pin at, data tomorrow (CPI & PPI), might be the mover, however I feel it would need to be a real HIT or MISS to move in a significant direction.


Aggregate Gamma 641/642 biggest positive gamma, 655 largest gamma strike (negative), after 655 it's negative all the way up to 665. CPI/PPI and Rate decision could fuel this.

[Blazed]

Deflation

Looks like cuts are happening

PPI -0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.3%
PPI Core -0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.3%

PPI 2.6% YoY, Exp. 3.3%
PPI Core 2.8% YoY, Exp. 3.5%

[ajlaxmn]

Tomorrow SPY Gamma, Positive Gamma 645, 648, 650, 653 (653 Largest Positive Gamma). Largest negative Gamma between that positive gamma range is 651.

Aggregate Gamma (Gamma across all expirations), Positive Gamma cluster 640/641 and 649/650. Largest negative gamma is 655 with negative gamma all the way to 665 (which is thin positive gamma).

Still holding my one SPY Call, premium fill $57, now at $73. plan to hold through FOMC, even if they hold rates, I would anticipate market buying back up from whatever drop occurs the 2-3 weeks after.

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Crazy it got there that fast

Expect some profit taking and a pull back




------------------

SPX @ 6500 needs to break and hold to continue

CPI and PPI will be the next catalyst (Weds & Thurs)

Calling it a day here

Back at it tomorrow

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Picked up 100 shares of this back at 11, solely off what you said. Said heck, don't are if I lose $1000. It's in my Roth account, so I'll just hold for who knows what reason or how long. If it drops back to $10, I'll grab another 100 if I have it.

Picked up 100 shares via Roth the other day as well.

Don't know much but trust your judgment more than my own. Obviously won't hold anything against you if it trended towards $0 either, I understand the risk.

My brother-in-law has been getting into option trading and I've been reading more up on it as well as Forex trading. Occasionally reading this thread and appreciate what ya'll, (particularly Blazed, thread OP), do for the community.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Picked up 100 shares via Roth the other day as well.

Don't know much but trust your judgment more than my own. Obviously won't hold anything against you if it trended towards $0 either, I understand the risk.

My brother-in-law has been getting into option trading and I've been reading more up on it as well as Forex trading. Occasionally reading this thread and appreciate what ya'll, (particularly Blazed, thread OP), do for the community.

Good to see you posting in the thread

A lot of people prefer DM's which is cool too so I knew there's several ppl in FNMA and some in FMCC

FNMA should* be a big hit @ $15.30 right now, assuming things play out as planned. Of course the flip side is, the IPO never happens and it goes south

But with JPM adding 100 million to their position along with other funds/retirement plans I think it's pretty safe

As for options, its a lot easier when you have a plan and trade off whole psych levels (SPX) so if your BIL looks through this thread there's a ton of info on it

Options on other tickers works the same but instead of whole psych levels you'd use solid S/R (like UNH, most recent one posted)