Luis Gonzalez: cheat?

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Have you read this thread? I have said repeatedly I think Luis Gonzalez did steroids. At this point it is a joke.

The BO sanctity police are out in full force today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

so you are making a claim/argument.

based on your feelings...

[TeeBee12]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

I feel like Norm MacDonald apologizing on The View at this point.

Youre looking like Norm Macdonald on Weekend Update though.

Not. Your. Best. Work.

“Hey Norm! If you were a hotdog, would ya eat yourself?”

[TeeBee12]

Originally Posted by daveyc1

based on your feelings...

Stuart Smalley over there! ��

[BigL7370]

Fans and collectors gossip and say the most unsavory things about pro athletes all the time, with their own double standards and conditions, so I don’t see how it’s different in this case.

[JMStang]

A couple of guys who had good seasons at 30+ and did not play in the 90’s.

Davey Johnson - 43 hr in 1973. Only had 2 seasons of double digit HR before and had none after.

Roy Sievers - had his best seasons after age 30 including 42 at age 30 in 1957.

Hank Sauer - Didn’t make the majors until age 31 in 1948. Hit 41 in 1954 at aged 37.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[daveyc1]

Originally Posted by BigL7370

Fans and collectors gossip and say the most unsavory things about pro athletes all the time, with their own double standards and conditions, so I don’t see how it’s different in this case.

Does that make it right?

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by JMStang

A couple of guys who had good seasons at 30+ and did not play in the 90’s.

Davey Johnson - 43 hr in 1973. Only had 2 seasons of double digit HR before and had none after.

Roy Sievers - had his best seasons after age 30 including 42 at age 30 in 1957.

Hank Sauer - Didn’t make the majors until age 31 in 1948. Hit 41 in 1954 at aged 37.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Johnson's 43 HR at age 30 really sticks out.

Sievers had 24, 25, and 29 homers before 42 at age 30 so he didn't really come out of nowhere.

Sauer hit 37 at age 35 (MVP) and 41 at age 37. But he was a perennial 30 homer guy from his first full season at age 31. I'm guessing he lost time due the war.

Interesting cases for sure.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Wade Boggs maxed at 24. His next best was 11. Other than that, he was under double digits every year of his career.

Joe Mauer also had a similar aberration.

Boggs' 24 home runs was during the "rabbit ball" 1987 season: https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/r...aseball-season

Mauer's 28 home runs in 2009 was suspicious, though -- his second-highest season total was 13.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Gonzalez began his career in one of the worst HR parks in baseball history…the Astrodome. Most of his 20s were played there. He had a season and half at Wrigley then played a season in another notorious HR unfriendly park in Detroit. Then he went to a much better HR park in Arizona and started hitting more HRs. Like many players, he got progressively better, peaked with his best season at age 33 then had a steady decline.

His HR% was practically unchanged with the Cubs during his age 27 and 28 seasons -- typically a player's prime years:

Astros 1990-1995: 14.2 HR per 162 games

Cubs 1995-1996: 15.98 HR per 162 games

But it doubled with the D-Backs:

Diamondbacks 1999-2006: 30.4 HR per 162 games

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by 88horsepower

Reminds me of Terry Steinbach in 1996 who hit 35 home runs despite his next best season being the 16 home runs he hit in 1987, his rookie year. The dude was around Canseco and McGwire for years and never hit more than 16 home runs. I think if he were to have taken roids, it would have been when those two were in the clubhouse, not in 1996 for one single season. Outliers don't always mean PEDs were involved.

He was 34 years old, in his walk year, had the best offensive season of his career, and was teammates with known juicers like Big Mac and Giambi. He completely fell off the table with the Twins the following year -- use your brain.

[fabiani12333]

Gonzalez also won the 2001 Home Run Derby, beating A-Rod, Sosa, Giambi and Bonds: https://youtu.be/lcDMon5w2js

Haha -- you can't make this up.

[SaveMeTheGum]

A lot of guys who never hit 20 HRs in their 20's hit 57 when they turn 33. Gonzalez and Brady Anderson deserve their own wing in the 'roid HOF.

[ScooterD]

This may be slightly off-topic, but does the WAR calculation for the “average replacement” include numbers from everyone in the league? If so, steroid users skew WAR for everyone. Couldn’t adjustments be made to take out all stats from KNOWN PED users?

[rats60]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Johnson's 43 HR at age 30 really sticks out.

Sievers had 24, 25, and 29 homers before 42 at age 30 so he didn't really come out of nowhere.

Sauer hit 37 at age 35 (MVP) and 41 at age 37. But he was a perennial 30 homer guy from his first full season at age 31. I'm guessing he lost time due the war.

Interesting cases for sure.

No it doesn't.Atlanta's stadium was the Coors Field of the 60s and 70s. Then the Braves moved the fences in at the end of the 1968 season to help Henry Aaron in his chase for the All-time HR record with Ruth and Mays.

Two years earlier Johnson hit 18 with only 8 at home at 10 on the road. He hit 26 home runs in Atlanta and 17 on the road, so it was only 7 HRs over his career high. Most of the increase came from playing in an extreme hitters park. The next season with Aaron assured of breaking the HR record, the Braves moved the fences back and Johnson only hit 7 HRs at home (and 8 on the road). He also had 111 fewer plate appearances that season.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by rats60

No it doesn't.Atlanta's stadium was the Coors Field of the 60s and 70s. Then the Braves moved the fences in at the end of the 1968 season to help Henry Aaron in his chase for the All-time HR record with Ruth and Mays.

Two years earlier Johnson hit 18 with only 8 at home at 10 on the road. He hit 26 home runs in Atlanta and 17 on the road, so it was only 7 HRs over his career high. Most of the increase came from playing in an extreme hitters park. The next season with Aaron assured of breaking the HR record, the Braves moved the fences back and Johnson only hit 7 HRs at home (and 8 on the road). He also had 111 fewer plate appearances that season.

Yes he probably never tried steroids. Just gonna throw out a quote from one of his teammates though:

"several teammates used amphetamines, and that he tried human growth hormone and "whatever steroid" he could find in order to keep up with the competition..."I pretty much popped everything cold turkey," ...
"We were doing steroids they wouldn't give to horses. "

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rats60

No it doesn't.Atlanta's stadium was the Coors Field of the 60s and 70s. Then the Braves moved the fences in at the end of the 1968 season to help Henry Aaron in his chase for the All-time HR record with Ruth and Mays.

Two years earlier Johnson hit 18 with only 8 at home at 10 on the road. He hit 26 home runs in Atlanta and 17 on the road, so it was only 7 HRs over his career high. Most of the increase came from playing in an extreme hitters park. The next season with Aaron assured of breaking the HR record, the Braves moved the fences back and Johnson only hit 7 HRs at home (and 8 on the road). He also had 111 fewer plate appearances that season.

Your explanation would make a lot more sense if his home run total didn't more than double.

Davey Johnson HR home/road split:

1971 (Orioles):
-Home: 8
-Road: 10
24% more on the road

1973:
-Home: 26
-Road: 17
53% more at home

1974:
-Home: 10
-Road: 8
25% more at home


The Orioles HR home/road split:

1971:
-Home: 44
-Road: 56
27% more on the road


The Braves HR home/road split:

1973:
-Home: 118
-Road: 88
34% more at home

1974:
-Home: 65
-Road: 55
18% more at home

His high home run totals in 1973 can't be explained by his home ball park.

[youseekyoda421]

[marl1220]

Well, I read on here that people think he did so he must have taken them.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Your explanation would make a lot more sense if his home run total didn't more than double.

His high home run totals in 1973 can't be explained by his home ball park.

Your post makes no sense. Johnson hit the same number of Home Runs in 1971 as he hit in 1974. The home road splits over a 162 game season were two home runs. That is a normal variance.

His peak was accomplished in the one season he played in Atlanta with the fences moved in. Those balls the next season were outs instead of over the fence. The lack of home runs in 1974 resulted in fewer at bats, further reducing his power numbers. Even his road numbers of 17 vs 10 are within a reasonable variance, just at a high end.

Look at Blowout favorite Kyle Schwarber. In 2024 he hit 18 HRs on the road. In 2023 he hit 24, a variance of 6. He is at 22 this season a variance of 4. He could easily reach 7 or more.

Johnson's HR totals more than doubled because he played 81 games in a stadium at altitude with the fences moved in when his previous seasons he played 0. A player's home park matters a lot in baseball.

[fabiani12333]

It's pretty noteworthy that Gonzalez and Steve Finley had very similar career arcs and were teammates for 10 seasons:

Steve Finley:
1989-1995 (ages 24 through 30 seasons): 102 OPS+; 6.7 HR per season (1.3 HR%)
1996-2004 (ages 31 through 40 season): 112 OPS+; 26.4 HR per season (4.2 HR%)
OPS+ increased 9.8%; home run rate increased 223%!

Luis Gonzalez:
1990-1998 (ages 22 through 30 seasons): 109 OPS+; 11.9 HR per season (2.4 HR%)
1999-2008 (ages 31 through 40 seasons): 125 OPS+; 24.7 HR per season (4.0 HR%)
OPS+ increased 14.7%; home run rate increased 66.7%

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by rats60

Your post makes no sense. Johnson hit the same number of Home Runs in 1971 as he hit in 1974. The home road splits over a 162 game season were two home runs. That is a normal variance.

His peak was accomplished in the one season he played in Atlanta with the fences moved in. Those balls the next season were outs instead of over the fence. The lack of home runs in 1974 resulted in fewer at bats, further reducing his power numbers. Even his road numbers of 17 vs 10 are within a reasonable variance, just at a high end.

Look at Blowout favorite Kyle Schwarber. In 2024 he hit 18 HRs on the road. In 2023 he hit 24, a variance of 6. He is at 22 this season a variance of 4. He could easily reach 7 or more.

Johnson's HR totals more than doubled because he played 81 games in a stadium at altitude with the fences moved in when his previous seasons he played 0. A player's home park matters a lot in baseball.

Didn't you look at the other stats I provided? Johnson's home/road HR splits mirror his teammates. His home run spike on the road in 1973 basically matched his overall team. They dropped a similar amount in 1974.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

This isn’t proof by any means, but there are two other facts that, for me, throw some doubt on Luis being clean - the simultaneous resurgences and successes of his teammates: Steve Finley and Jay Bell.

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

It's pretty noteworthy that Gonzalez and Steve Finley had very similar career arcs and were teammates for 10 seasons:

Steve Finley:
1989-1995 (ages 24 through 30 seasons): 102 OPS+; 6.7 HR per season (1.3 HR%)
1996-2004 (ages 31 through 40 season): 112 OPS+; 26.4 HR per season (4.2 HR%)
OPS+ increased 9.8%; home run rate increased 223%!

Luis Gonzalez:
1990-1998 (ages 22 through 30 seasons): 109 OPS+; 11.9 HR per season (2.4 HR%)
1999-2008 (ages 31 through 40 seasons): 125 OPS+; 24.7 HR per season (4.0 HR%)
OPS+ increased 14.7%; home run rate increased 66.7%

Is there an echo in here…?

[oldgoldy97]

Some guys get better.

Those guys must juice.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Some guys get better.

Those guys must juice.

I see you stirring the pot - what are your opinions on the substantive matter?

[Noles939913]

Is the reason his cards are worth so little is because there are next to no Diamondback fans? You could make a HOF case looking at the numbers and that’s without taking into account his World Series heroics.