Luis Gonzalez: cheat? - Page 4

TeeBee12 · 08-31-2025, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

You know being juiced and having an anomaly year don't have to be mutually exclusive, right? If anything, it'd just make a possible anomalous performance be even more anomalous.

This is also true.

And if that pic is of the year in question, then it would prolly swing my “benefit of the doubt” vote from 60/40 back down to 52/48. Still, circumstantial evidence resulting in a not guilty (yet) verdict.

- Partly Cloudy

ninjacookies · 08-31-2025, 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeeBee12

This is also true.

And if that pic is of the year in question, then it would prolly swing my “benefit of the doubt” vote from 60/40 back down to 52/48. Still, circumstantial evidence resulting in a not guilty (yet) verdict.

- Partly Cloudy

There are multiple exhibits to present to the BO jury if needed.

IMO, his season always drew red flags for me. And it being right dead smack in the middle of the PED era makes it a no brainer for me.

Though at this point it's strictly a judgement call. Even Rafael vehemently denied and lied under oath before getting popped just a few months later (lol).

johnlocke36 · 08-31-2025, 02:09 AM

I think the real question is not do you think Luis was on steroids, but why do you think everyone else wasn't? If you took any player from 2000 and asked me if I think they took steroids the answer is yes, with the exception of maybe Jamie Moyer, and even then my answer would be probably.

Everyone that took steroids didn't look like McGwire or Bonds but given the risk/reward for taking steroids in that time period (especially for Latin America players) you would be crazy to not have experimented. Not to mention the fact that once every other person is on them, if you don't do the same you are likely just gonna be out of baseball

daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipscards

The Astrodome absolutely affected Bagwell. Though Bagwell was probably the greatest power hitter in Astros history, so he’s hitting HRs in any park. However, he was still affected. He hit .19 HRs per game in the Astrodome and .22 per game in Minute Maid/Enron/Astros Field.

Gonzalez didn’t “get progressively better on his 30s”. He had his best season at the age of 33 just like a bunch of other players. Most of his 30s he got progressively worse as he entered his decline phase.

In Arizona:
Age 31 - 26 HRs
Age 32 - 31 Better
Age 33 - 57 Better
Age 34 - 28 Worse
Age 35 - 26 Worse
Age 36 - 17 Worse
Age 37 - 24 Better
Age 38 - 15 Worse

The historical prime years for MLB players is Ages 26-32; meaning most players have their best season during those years. But several players had their best season at age 25 (Beltre, Goldschmidt) and Age 33 (Killebrew, Luis). And fewer, but some, even have it at age 24 (Foxx, Alonso) and age 34 (Mays, Mize). And once in a while someone has their best year in an even further outlier (Bryce Harper Age 22) (Hank Aaron Age 37).

So, in their 30s, Killebrew, Mays, Mize, and Aaron all had their best HR season in their 30s, past the standard “prime” seasons.

Not everyone ages exactly the same way. But Luis Gonzalez’ age curve as it relates to HRs is about as normally distributed as it gets.

This right here.

this is why we cannot use the statistical record as evidence for PED use. everyone ages differently. there are lots of players who had crazy late career seasons/stretches.

daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 07:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Love the sanctimony in here. Is this a court of law? The burden of proof "falls on my shoulders"? It's my opinion, which I supported with real statistics.

the statistical record is not PROOF of PED use.

oldgoldy97 · 08-31-2025, 08:07 AM

I need to see the age to ability to statistical results formula.

jhssketchcards · 08-31-2025, 09:14 AM

Plenty of examples even now of guys setting career marks years after debuting. But Im certain no player uses PEDs anymore. I was told they are just bigger, faster, stronger.

If people think players today aren’t using some and of magic sauce they are fooling themselves. Too much money on the line to not want an edge.

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rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

This right here.

this is why we cannot use the statistical record as evidence for PED use. everyone ages differently. there are lots of players who had crazy late career seasons/stretches.

Which part? Every player in this post cited as a rebuke had a 40-homer season (and often multiple) in their 20s. Gonzalez didn't even have a 20-homer season in all of his 20s.

Who had "crazy seasons/stretches" that wasn't on PEDs?

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

I need to see the age to ability to statistical results formula.

Shorthand just look at the homers.

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhssketchcards

Plenty of examples even now of guys setting career marks years after debuting. But Im certain no player uses PEDs anymore. I was told they are just bigger, faster, stronger.

If people think players today aren’t using some and of magic sauce they are fooling themselves. Too much money on the line to not want an edge.

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I would guess plenty are still as well. It's too tempting not to. Having a drug testing program is not foolproof by any means. Steroid use is rampant in the UFC and very few get busted for it.

daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Which part? Every player in this post cited as a rebuke had a 40-homer season (and often multiple) in their 20s. Gonzalez didn't even have a 20-homer season in all of his 20s.

Who had "crazy seasons/stretches" that wasn't on PEDs?

I already brought up randy Johnson. Prime example. Greatest seasons post age 35. Just like bonds. But i never hear anyone bring up his name. As well they shouldnt. There is zero evidence he used. Other than statistical "evidence"

And that, right there, is why we cannot use statistical "evidence"

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rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

I already brought up randy Johnson. Prime example. Greatest seasons post age 35. Just like bonds. But i never hear anyone bring up his name. As well they shouldnt. There is zero evidence he used. Other than statistical "evidence"

And that, right there, is why we cannot use statistical "evidence"

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For one he is a pitcher, so there is that. He was also already a Cy Young winner by the time he got to the Diamondbacks. He also was a teammate of Gonzalez during the steroid era..........

Clemens had some great late seasons as well.....

Not sure why you are so hung up on "evidence". Nobody knows for sure if Gonzalez used or not. There are a lot of indicators that he did.

oldgoldy97 · 08-31-2025, 10:42 AM

Someone going from 18 to over 40 seems like evidence, too.

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Someone going from 18 to over 40 seems like evidence, too.

Assuming you are talking about homers? Maybe. Was it a one time thing? How old were they when it occured? Did it occur during the steroid era? Hard to say without some context.

daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rfgilles

For one he is a pitcher, so there is that. He was also already a Cy Young winner by the time he got to the Diamondbacks. He also was a teammate of Gonzalez during the steroid era..........

Clemens had some great late seasons as well.....

Not sure why you are so hung up on "evidence". Nobody knows for sure if Gonzalez used or not. There are a lot of indicators that he did.

Because YOU are using the statistical record as your ONLY source of "evidence"

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daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 10:55 AM

Are you positing that PED does not effect pitchers?

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rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Because YOU are using the statistical record as your ONLY source of "evidence"
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It is the area I am focusing on in this thread, and the main reason I think Gonzalez used. Players do age in predictable ways which people seem to get offended by.

The change in his physique is also very telling. That's my opinion and many others in the thread.

That's enough for me to think Gonzalez used. You don't have to agree.

daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rfgilles

It is the area I am focusing on in this thread, and the main reason I think Gonzalez used. Players do age in predictable ways which people seem to get offended by.

The change in his physique is also very telling. That's my opinion and many others in the thread.

That's enough for me to think Gonzalez used. You don't have to agree.

That is very shaky ground you are hitching your wagon to.

Again, not "evidence" it is simply your personal opinion. Which is worth, well...

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daveyc1 · 08-31-2025, 11:06 AM

Slandering a players career because one "feels" like he may have used or believe he used or thinks he may have used is pretty low brow to me.

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Chrominator · 08-31-2025, 11:07 AM

According to Bowman, it was the change in his stance that helped him double-up on dingers.

oldgoldy97 · 08-31-2025, 11:27 AM

What helped Lebron, Jerry Rice, Hank Aaron maintain solid output in their later years?

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

Are you positing that PED does not effect pitchers?

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No I am not "positing" PEDs does not affect pitchers. The opposite. You didn't pick up on that huh?

A better comp for Gonzalez would be a position player, someone who actually hits homeruns.

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveyc1

That is very shaky ground you are hitching your wagon to.

Again, not "evidence" it is simply your personal opinion. Which is worth, well...

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It is worth as much as yours.

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

What helped Lebron, Jerry Rice, Hank Aaron maintain solid output in their later years?

"Maintain" is the key word. They were all superstars in their 20s. Gonzalez was not.

rfgilles · 08-31-2025, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrominator

According to Bowman, it was the change in his stance that helped him double-up on dingers.

Case closed.

08-31-2025, 02:09 AM	#78
johnlocke36 Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Southern California Posts: 2,751	I think the real question is not do you think Luis was on steroids, but why do you think everyone else wasn't? If you took any player from 2000 and asked me if I think they took steroids the answer is yes, with the exception of maybe Jamie Moyer, and even then my answer would be probably. Everyone that took steroids didn't look like McGwire or Bonds but given the risk/reward for taking steroids in that time period (especially for Latin America players) you would be crazy to not have experimented. Not to mention the fact that once every other person is on them, if you don't do the same you are likely just gonna be out of baseball

08-31-2025, 08:07 AM	#81
oldgoldy97 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 50,379	I need to see the age to ability to statistical results formula.

08-31-2025, 09:14 AM	#82
jhssketchcards Member Join Date: Jul 2014 Location: Louisiana Posts: 11,380 jhssketchcards2012	Plenty of examples even now of guys setting career marks years after debuting. But Im certain no player uses PEDs anymore. I was told they are just bigger, faster, stronger. If people think players today aren’t using some and of magic sauce they are fooling themselves. Too much money on the line to not want an edge. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

08-31-2025, 10:42 AM	#88
oldgoldy97 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 50,379	Someone going from 18 to over 40 seems like evidence, too.

08-31-2025, 10:55 AM	#91
daveyc1 Member Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: maine Posts: 1,936	Are you positing that PED does not effect pitchers? Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

08-31-2025, 11:06 AM	#94
daveyc1 Member Join Date: Dec 2014 Location: maine Posts: 1,936	Slandering a players career because one "feels" like he may have used or believe he used or thinks he may have used is pretty low brow to me. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

08-31-2025, 11:07 AM	#95
Chrominator Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Earth-616 Posts: 5,025 Chrominator	According to Bowman, it was the change in his stance that helped him double-up on dingers.

08-31-2025, 11:27 AM	#96
oldgoldy97 Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 50,379	What helped Lebron, Jerry Rice, Hank Aaron maintain solid output in their later years?