Is Kyle Schwarber a HOFer?

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

I think there's still a lot of olds that are HOF voters that still value batting average and the "traditional" stats more than the advanced analytics like OPS, wRC+, etc.

As more and more of the olds get phased out and younger voters replace them, things such as low BA will matter less and advanced metrics will matter more as far as HOF inclusion. But it will take a while for that transition to happen.

I believe when the older voters who discussed the “value” with the managers and players behind the scenes are no longer around, the younger voters will leave out older values such as : winning, batting in runners, the ability to remain in the lineup instead of utilizing less talented performers, post season or pennant run high leverage performance vs low leverage success on bad teams.

[LittleJimmies]

Originally Posted by green4407

Kyle Schwarber steps to the podium in Cooperstown, his burly frame filling out a suit, a grin spreading across his face as he looks out at the crowd. The sun shines on the rolling hills, and the crowd quiets, eager to hear from the slugging outfielder who powered his way into baseball immortality.

Thank you, thank you all. Wow, standing here in Cooperstown… this is something a kid from Middletown, Ohio, never dreamed of. I mean, I was just a guy who loved swinging a bat, eating wings, and maybe having a beer or two with my buddies. And now, I’m here. In the Hall of Fame. Unreal.

First off, I gotta thank my family. Mom, Dad, you guys were there from the T-ball days, driving me to practices, dealing with my stubborn streak when I insisted on swinging for the fences every time. My sisters, you kept me grounded, always reminding me I wasn’t that cool, even when I hit my first homer. My wife, Paige, you’re my rock. You’ve been with me through the minors, the trades, the injuries, and every crazy moment. I love you.

To my teammates—man, where do I start? From the Cubs to the Phillies, the Red Sox, the Nats, every clubhouse felt like home because of you guys. I’ll never forget 2016 with Chicago. That World Series? Breaking the curse? We were a bunch of kids playing like we had nothing to lose. Javy, Kris, Anthony, Jon, we made history. And Philly, you embraced me like I was one of your own. Citizens Bank Park roaring in October? Nothing like it. I’m proud to have bled red with you.

Coaches, trainers, staff—thank you for believing in me, even when I was a catcher who probably shouldn’t have been catching. You saw something in this big guy who just wanted to hit bombs. You taught me how to grind, how to compete, how to come back from a torn ACL and still swing like I meant it.

And the fans. Cubs fans, you’re the heartbeat of Wrigley. Phillies fans, you’re the loudest, most passionate crazies I’ve ever played for—and I mean that in the best way. You made every home run feel like a citywide party. I hope I gave you half as much joy as you gave me.

Baseball’s been my life. It’s taught me grit, heart, and how to get up when you strike out. I wasn’t the fastest guy, or the most graceful, but I gave it everything. If I could leave you with one thing, it’s this: swing hard, love harder, and never stop chasing what sets your soul on fire.

Thank you, Cooperstown. This is the greatest honor of my life.

Schwarber steps back, waves to the crowd, and wipes a tear as the applause thunders through the hall.

You forgot this part:

I'll be honest with you all, there was a time when I didn't think I would reach 1000 career homeruns. I remember one late summer afternoon when I was 32 years 177 days old and sitting on only 333 career homeruns, to think about 500 homeruns, let alone 1000, seemed a bit crazy. They used to say father time is undefeated, but that was before he met me.

[johnlocke36]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If Dunn got to 500, he absolutely would have been voted in. It might make no sense whatsoever that those 38 HR are the difference between a hall of famer and someone who just had a decent career, but that's the reality we live in.

I completely agree with this. Makes no sense but 100% correct

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

Good points. Chat GPT spit the above out. That said, it seems problematic to come up with a "clean" list, because you don't know who took PEDs.

There is a very good chance Gonzalez took PEDs given his late career power surge for one (never hit 30 homers in his 20s, or after his 57 homer season).

I've seen variations of this sort of argument. This is akin to suggesting we shouldn't arrest any criminals since we don't know who all the criminals are.

The fact is, we know with 100% certainty that Mark McGwire took illegal steroids. We also know with 100% certainty that there is no evidence that Luis Gonzalez did steroids.

And Gonzalez didn't have a late career power surge. He was 33 years old. He isn't the first player in history to have an big power season in their early 30s.

Also, "chance" is a pretty low bar to convict.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If Dunn got to 500, he absolutely would have been voted in. It might make no sense whatsoever that those 38 HR are the difference between a hall of famer and someone who just had a decent career, but that's the reality we live in.

I, respectfully, disagree. Dunn could have hit 500 HRs and would have been the 1st player in history with 500 HRs not to make it. Just like Kingman was the 1st player in history with 400 HRs not to make it.

That being said, Kyle Schwarber has been better this year than either of those two. He'll just need to keep it up for a long time to make this all moot. That's what's working against him...time.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by Stifle

Adam Dunn’s best stretch for Run Production %
04 161 of the 750 : .2157%
05 168 of the 820 : .2049%
06 151 of the 749 : .2016%
07 167 of the 783 : .2133%

During this time period Dunn played in the NL where the vast majority of the games were without a DH. Run Production by pitchers is nearly futile therefore increasing the position players percentages by sizable increases.

Schwarber over the past 4 years with DH’s.

02 174 of the 746 : .2330%
03 165 of the 796 : .2073%
04 176 of the 784 : .2245%
05 164 of the 644 : .2547%

It’s like comparing Ted Williams batting average to Freddie Freeman’s. Dunn was one of the top producers to his team. Schwarber is one of the top producers in the entire league.

As I stated in one of my previous posts - if Schwarber has another 4-5 years of 2025 level production in him and crosses the 500 mark, maybe he gets in. Dunn was who Dunn was for 10 years. Has Schwarbers peak been better? Sure. But he's gonna have to do quite a bit as he's aging to reach Dunn's career numbers.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If Dunn got to 500, he absolutely would have been voted in. It might make no sense whatsoever that those 38 HR are the difference between a hall of famer and someone who just had a decent career, but that's the reality we live in.

In Dunn's case, he was basically done being a productive player at 30 and out of the game at 34. Voters had a choice to decide if his career and the 462 taters that went into it were worthy of inclusion. He stays healthy to 36-37 or even just more productive through 32-33, he crosses the magic number with ease. Voters knew this. And he got exactly 1 vote out of 397. I just have a hard time believing that those 38 extra homers would have swung 297 people to vote yes. If he would have gotten 35-40% of the vote and hung around for a few years, then I'd completely agree the missing 38 kept him out.

[49ersSF]

The Hall of Fame case for Schwarber is different from Dunn. While their careers to this point have similarities where they differ is accolades and acheivements.

Dunn spent his entire career never playing in a playoff game and earning two All-Star selections and never finishing higher than 21st on the MVP vote.
.
Schwarber is one of the greatest post-season players in the history of the game. He's made the all-star 3 times, and is now one of the front-runners for NL MVP. He'll probably finish as runner up. He has World Series Ring and has the potential of becoming only the 29th player in history to hit 500 home runs.

This is why Schwarber is a viable candidate for the Hall and Dunn in not.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I've seen variations of this sort of argument. This is akin to suggesting we shouldn't arrest any criminals since we don't know who all the criminals are.

The fact is, we know with 100% certainty that Mark McGwire took illegal steroids. We also know with 100% certainty that there is no evidence that Luis Gonzalez did steroids.

And Gonzalez didn't have a late career power surge. He was 33 years old. He isn't the first player in history to have an big power season in their early 30s.

Also, "chance" is a pretty low bar to convict.

We aren't convicting we are countering the argument that you know who is and isn't clean. When it comes to Gonzalez there is cause to be suspicious. There may not be definitive proof, but that doesn't mean he didn't do steroids. If you want to put him on a "clean" list, more power to you.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Schwarber is one of the greatest post-season players in the history of the game.

Seriously?

He's hit a lot of solo home runs in the postseason, but his career postseason slash line is .367/.539/.906.....good, but not even close to being one of the "greatest ever". To make the top ten in career post-season OPS (minimum 40 PA) you have to be above 1.167. He's nowhere close to that. Even if you raise the PA threshold to 150 PA (thus just about eliminating every pre-WC era non-Yankee), he's still be only 19th.

He's just benefitted from playing in an era of bloated playoffs structures where 5-6 teams a year make the playoffs in each league.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Stifle

You may value, a performer who puts up great metrical numbers for a team that thrives more in scoring runs but I value a performer who continuously is in the lineup producing for a team that requires him to produce more for the team’s success.

Griffey Jr, Albert Belle, Alex Rodriguez were on powerhouse teams that would score roughly a 1,000 runs. They would produce roughly 230+ runs per season. If a player such as Witt Jr. is 30 plus in less production but is far superior in the percentage he gives the team, who is of more value? A .272% runs production player vs a .232% player ?

You are all over the place, Griffey Arod, Witt Jr. Who are you referring to in the last sentence? You realize that the more runs a team scores the more likely they are to have more wins right?

Ohtani and Schwarber have produced basically the same amount of RP. Ohtani shouldn't be penalized because he plays with better players than Schwarber.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

We aren't convicting we are countering the argument that you know who is and isn't clean. When it comes to Gonzalez there is cause to be suspicious. There may not be definitive proof, but that doesn't mean he didn't do steroids. If you want to put him on a "clean" list, more power to you.

The analogy is just that; an analogy. Not knowing who did or didn’t do it doesn’t mean we ignore who we know did it and it doesn’t mean we need to grab our pitchforks because someone had a career year at 33.

Everyone falls into two categories:

1. Did PEDs
2. May have done PEDs

I’m not going to waste time guessing based on suspicion. Show me proof, and sure, a pox on them. But telling me someone had a career year at 33, really isn't anything. We’re now literally decades from 2001. If he did take PEDs, we would have almost certainly seen some evidence by now.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

The analogy is just that; an analogy. Not knowing who did or didn’t do it doesn’t mean we ignore who we know did it and it doesn’t mean we need to grab our pitchforks because someone had a career year at 33.

Everyone falls into two categories:

1. Did PEDs
2. May have done PEDs

I’m not going to waste time guessing based on suspicion. Show me proof, and sure, a pox on them. But telling me someone had a career year at 33, really isn't anything. We’re now literally decades from 2001. If he did take PEDs, we would have almost certainly seen some evidence by now.

May have done PEDs is not the same as "clean". We only know a fraction of the players who used PEDs.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by LittleJimmies

You forgot this part:

I'll be honest with you all, there was a time when I didn't think I would reach 1000 career homeruns. I remember one late summer afternoon when I was 32 years 177 days old and sitting on only 333 career homeruns, to think about 500 homeruns, let alone 1000, seemed a bit crazy. They used to say father time is undefeated, but that was before he met me.

34 is the dreaded age that I have held par with. Some players beat it but for baseball, hand eye to bat speed with just a fraction slowing down is detrimental.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

May have done PEDs is not the same as "clean". We only know a fraction of the players who used PEDs.

May have done PEDs includes clean. Anyone “may” have done something. Your neighbor “may” be a thief. That doesn’t mean you call the police.

This will be my last post on the subject. The list was provided as requested and a mistake ridden Chat GPT isn’t going to change it. Luis Gonzalez is as innocent as Derek Jeter.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

You are all over the place, Griffey Arod, Witt Jr. Who are you referring to in the last sentence? You realize that the more runs a team scores the more likely they are to have more wins right?

Ohtani and Schwarber have produced basically the same amount of RP. Ohtani shouldn't be penalized because he plays with better players than Schwarber.

The more runs a team scores does give the team much greater odds of winning. We both agree. Last season, the Yankees scored 815 runs and Judge had produced 208 or .2552% of those runs to make it into the playoffs. Bobby Witt Jr’s Royals team scored 735 runs and Witt produced 202 of those runs for a run production percentage of .2748. The Royals also reached the playoffs.

Anytime a player can be a quarter of the production in the DH era, that is huge. What I’m implying is that Judge helped his team by producing 208 runs which was more than Witt. The Royals relied upon Witt much more in production in helping the team win than Judge. If either player received the MVP I would have been good with the outcome.

I did the same breakdown with Ohtani and Schwarber. The season still has roughly a strong 1/6th of the games to go. So far Schwarber has produced a .2547 to .2349 production lead over Ohtani, but a long way to go.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

May have done PEDs includes clean. Anyone “may” have done something. Your neighbor “may” be a thief. That doesn’t mean you call the police.

This will be my last post on the subject. The list was provided as requested and a mistake ridden Chat GPT isn’t going to change it. Luis Gonzalez is as innocent as Derek Jeter.

The managing partner of the Diamondbacks alluded to the steroid rumors for Gonzalez, you can ignore that if you want.

Gonzalez also went from never hitting 30 homers in his 20s to hitting 57(!!) as a 33-year-old, during the Steroid era. Name any other player who had a stat profile like that, who didn't take steroids.

I don't recall Steinbrenner ever accusing Jeter of steroids

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Stifle

The more runs a team scores does give the team much greater odds of winning. We both agree. Last season, the Yankees scored 815 runs and Judge had produced 208 or .2552% of those runs to make it into the playoffs. Bobby Witt Jr’s Royals team scored 735 runs and Witt produced 202 of those runs for a run production percentage of .2748. The Royals also reached the playoffs.

Anytime a player can be a quarter of the production in the DH era, that is huge. What I’m implying is that Judge helped his team by producing 208 runs which was more than Witt. The Royals relied upon Witt much more in production in helping the team win than Judge. If either player received the MVP I would have been good with the outcome.

I did the same breakdown with Ohtani and Schwarber. The season still has roughly a strong 1/6th of the games to go. So far Schwarber has produced a .2547 to .2349 production lead over Ohtani, but a long way to go.

And the Yankees won more games than the Royals, in large part because they scored more runs than the Royals. You treat all teams run totals as being equal, they aren't.

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by Stifle

34 is the dreaded age that I have held par with. Some players beat it but for baseball, hand eye to bat speed with just a fraction slowing down is detrimental.

I'd even say 32 is the final peak year. Guys like Griffey, ARod, Thomas, Cabrera, Pujols all saw their production decrease.

Albert Pujols

pre 32 .328 BA .421 OB .617 Slug 1.037 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .313 OB .454 Slug .767 OPS

Miguel Cabrera

pre 32 .320 BA .397 OB .564 Slug .960 OPS
post 32 .272 BA .341 OB .416 Slug .758 OPS

Alex Rodriguez

pre 32 .306 BA .389 OB .578 Slug .987 OPS
post 32 .263 BA .353 OB .469 Slug .822 OPS

Ken Griffey

pre 32 .296 BA .379 OB .566 Slug .945 OPS
post 32 .257 BA .348 OB .477 Slug .825 OPS

Frank Thomas

pre 32 .321 BA .440 OB .579 Slug 1.018 OPS
post 32 .262 BA .376 OB .507 Slug .884 OPS

MLB came down on steroid users after 2008, so you see the drop in ARod as well. This is why it becomes much easier to suspect steroid use, as historically, almost every player in modern history sees a decline.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by rfgilles

The managing partner of the Diamondbacks alluded to the steroid rumors for Gonzalez, you can ignore that if you want.

Gonzalez also went from never hitting 30 homers in his 20s to hitting 57(!!) as a 33-year-old, during the Steroid era. Name any other player who had a stat profile like that, who didn't take steroids.

I don't recall Steinbrenner ever accusing Jeter of steroids

You are making an argument based on a false premise. The owner of the DBacks didn’t say or even suggest Gonzalez used PEDs. He said there had been whispers about suspicions. That’s not evidence. That’s trying to create some sort of evidence on nothing.

Here’s his quote where he mentioned Gonzalez in his interview…

"I'll be blunt with you and say there have been certainly whispers about Luis Gonzalez. Because he's such a high-profile guy and you can make a case of his numbers five years ago versus his numbers today and therefore he must have
been doing something. Well, he's also five years older.”

All that is, is offering an opinion as to why people would question his big season. There’s nothing there. But if you look at his actual career trajectory, he had a breakthrough age 31 season, peaked in age 33, and began a normal decline.




This is a Kyle Schwarber thread. Let’s take it back to him.

[rfgilles]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

You are making an argument based on a false premise. The owner of the DBacks didn’t say or even suggest Gonzalez used PEDs. He said there had been whispers about suspicions. That’s not evidence. That’s trying to create some sort of evidence on nothing.

Here’s his quote where he mentioned Gonzalez in his interview…

"I'll be blunt with you and say there have been certainly whispers about Luis Gonzalez. Because he's such a high-profile guy and you can make a case of his numbers five years ago versus his numbers today and therefore he must have
been doing something. Well, he's also five years older.”

All that is, is offering an opinion as to why people would question his big season. There’s nothing there. But if you look at his actual career trajectory, he had a breakthrough age 31 season, peaked in age 33, and began a normal decline.




This is a Kyle Schwarber thread. Let’s take it back to him.

That is what I said, the managing partner alluded to steroid rumors. Pay attention.

57 homeruns at age 33 is far from normal, when you never hit 30 homers in your 20s. Name others in the non-steroid division who peaked at 33.

"innocent as Jeter" is one of the most amusing things I have heard on BO in a while.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

If Dunn got to 500, he absolutely would have been voted in. It might make no sense whatsoever that those 38 HR are the difference between a hall of famer and someone who just had a decent career, but that's the reality we live in.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tzQKHVklkk8

[jlzinck]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I'll die on the hill that if Dave Kingman got to 500 HR he would have been voted into the Hall of Fame. He didn't, so he wasn't (and frankly, he was 58 HR short, which isn't insignificant). I believe McGriff would have been voted in quite quickly had he gotten there, and he was MUCH closer than Kingman to 500. I believe Delgado doesn't fall off the ballot and gets in had he gotten there. And whether I agree with it or not, I am confident that if Schwarber (or anyone else) gets to 500 HR, he will be voted in as well. People can argue there is no magic number all they want. None of us can prove it either way. But until I see a 500 HR hitter who isn't kept out for other issues not get in, I will continue to assume they will.

When he retired every player on the HR all time list was in the HOF.

[jhssketchcards]

If a player’s career stats were

15 years
52.0 WAR
1,905 hits
356 HR
1,234 RBI
.293 BA
.406 OBP
.537 SLG
.943 OPS
144 OPS +
1,146 Runs
422 2B
30 3B
1,300 Ks
4x Top 5 MVP finishes
1x WS Champ
6x AS
28th AT OPS
40th AT SLG
43rd AT OBP

Vs

11 years
19.7 WAR
1,030 hits
333 HR
771 RBI
.249 BA
.347 OBP
.501 SLG
.848 OPS
127 OPS+
172 2B
13 3B
785 Runs
1,486 Ks
1x WS Champ
0x Top 10 MVP finishes
0x BA over .300

Based on those numbers it wouldn’t be close to saying who is a HOF and overall better player.
But because Scwarber (bottom stats) has a chance at 500 HR he is a lock???
Thats hilarious.

BTW the stats on top belong to Lance Berkman.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HeritageKing]

Plenty of guys here talking smack who have never watched a Phillies game. Schwarber has been 10 times better than Harper for the past 2 years and I’m a HUGE Harper fan.

Plenty of room in Cooperstown for both Harper and Schwarber.