Hidden value in rare parallels. Do these just get lost in the sea of too much?

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

PSA has only graded 357/2024 topps updates Paul Skenes gold cards.

That’s less than 20% of the print run. Plus, we’re talking about a good product. Imagine how many sealed cases of 2023 tops series 1 are still out there? A TON.

There is a TON of sealed product still sitting out there. May not be on the level of the 90’s, but there is still a TON of unopened product.

Over 85% of 2024 topps gilded has been cracked. There are not a whole lot of sealed cases of that product left and that’s why 85% of the Skenes have surfaced in that product.

To be fair, it's because you have to look at 100 Skenes cards to find 1 that is gradable. There are probably 200 people who submitted a Skenes that shouldn't have, and the rest of the owners are smart enough to save their money. There are many of those out there not slabbed

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

To be fair, it's because you have to look at 100 Skenes cards to find 1 that is gradable. There are probably 200 people who submitted a Skenes that shouldn't have, and the rest of the owners are smart enough to save their money. There are many of those out there not slabbed

My point was, the hobby and breakers don’t crush through any flagship Topps product these days to the point where over 80% of all sealed boxes have been opened.

Many “scarce” parallels remain stuck in mountains of sealed cases that the hobby has never and likely will never touch.

[callou2131]

2024 Update stratospheric stars are pretty rare, but i think the elly sells for like $10

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by callou2131

2024 Update stratospheric stars are pretty rare, but i think the elly sells for like $10

That insert set has green/gold/orange/black refractors, so the base becomes irrelevant at that point.

[SaveMeTheGum]

They've pretty much jumped the shark on parallels. Limited availability does not = demand. Just waiting for the skid marks refractors...

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Supply might be low, but so is demand.

This.....for may SSP's and SSSP's demand is not just low, it's non-existent.

To start with, 99% of collectors don't even know that most SSP's/SSSP's even exist....Fanatics is releasing so many products, with so many parallels and variations, that nobody could possibly keep track of them all.

There are plenty of SSP's and SSSP's of major superstars with print runs <10 than can be had for less than $25 because nobody knows that they exist and/or nobody collects them.

[boxbuster7]

There are too many parallels

Parallelera

[theredmenace]

Aesthetics is more important than scarcity imo. The 2025 All Aces/All Kings inserts have a print run ~300 but they outsell scarcer insert sets because the cards look good. Also important, there's no parallel other that the super 1/1. Save parallels for the main checklist and autos!

[Tastybrisket10]

I just finished complete rainbow foil sets of 2024 S1 S2 and Update. I like these too much, I don’t think I’d ever sell. I collect as many as I can, I think they’re the best parallel.

[DylanPowers92]

it really seems to depend on the parallel honestly. for example, the topps chrome lightboard parallels are super rare and tough to find, so if one pops up of someone you want, you better jump on it. people like the numbering on cards all the way, that's why 99% of the time a topps heritage black chrome /73 will always out sell a paper black border that is announced as a print run of 50, but isn't stamped. I just wish topps would stamp everything versus wanting us to trust what they announce or trust the odds, which we know are sometimes way off. they are also starting to jump the shark on "rare" inserts and "case hits" some aren't as rare as they appear.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by mfw13

This.....for may SSP's and SSSP's demand is not just low, it's non-existent.

To start with, 99% of collectors don't even know that most SSP's/SSSP's even exist....Fanatics is releasing so many products, with so many parallels and variations, that nobody could possibly keep track of them all.

There are plenty of SSP's and SSSP's of major superstars with print runs <10 than can be had for less than $25 because nobody knows that they exist and/or nobody collects them.

If you're talking Topps Flagship and Topps Chrome image variations, that does not apply. Particularly the SSPs of major stars and rookies, where the demand is high but supply too low. Similar to OG Topps/Topps Chrome parallels, there is always going to be demand.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

PSA has only graded 357/2024 topps updates Paul Skenes gold cards.

That’s less than 20% of the print run. Plus, we’re talking about a good product. Imagine how many sealed cases of 2023 tops series 1 are still out there? A TON.

There is a TON of sealed product still sitting out there. May not be on the level of the 90’s, but there is still a TON of unopened product.

Over 85% of 2024 topps gilded has been cracked. There are not a whole lot of sealed cases of that product left and that’s why 85% of the Skenes have surfaced in that product.

What do the pop reports for flagship golds of top rookies from prior years look like? Say Ohtani, Acuna, and Soto from 2018 Update maybe. I'd think at least more than half of that product has been opened, maybe more.

[Twalk1975]

I wouldn't mind seeing base set wave refractors return as an SSP chrome parallel in Stadium Club this year.

[rogueriver]

I’ve pulled more 1/1 over the last year than I have Donruss elite cards from the 90s.

[bub838]

I miss the flagship SP/SSP/SSSP image variations. I liked those a lot more then the current unumbered parallels.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

What do the pop reports for flagship golds of top rookies from prior years look like? Say Ohtani, Acuna, and Soto from 2018 Update maybe. I'd think at least more than half of that product has been opened, maybe more.

About 450-650 of the big guys, with Acuna being highest graded.

There’s still a whole lot of sealed 2018 topps update out there - if about half has been ripped, how much 2023 topps series 1 is still left unripped out there? 80%?

[theshowandme]

The problem with many of the cards listed so far is it takes multiple sentences to explain what they are and why they might be rare/important.

That is no good for the long game.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by kipgen

The HFAs just don't look as good as the downtowns. They're these weird photoshop collages of things vaguely relating to the team/city the team plays in as opposed to a nicely designed drawing around the player. If they want the HFAs to catch on they should put more effort into them.

uhh, Panini has gotten pretty lazy with their recent Downtowns. They're just generic AI images, and some don't even sense (look at the field in the dual downtown)

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

About 450-650 of the big guys, with Acuna being highest graded.

There’s still a whole lot of sealed 2018 topps update out there - if about half has been ripped, how much 2023 topps series 1 is still left unripped out there? 80%?

I would guess its more than half for 2018 Update, but would not be surprised if 20-25% remains sealed. I want to say someone on here was attempting to track 2018 Prizm basketball and that was at like 65-70% opened a couple years ago? I have no idea on 2024 Update, but I think 80% still sealed is
probably high.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I would guess its more than half for 2018 Update, but would not be surprised if 20-25% remains sealed. I want to say someone on here was attempting to track 2018 Prizm basketball and that was at like 65-70% a couple years ago? I have no idea on 2024 Update, but I think 80% still sealed is
probably high.

A previous poster just mentioned “flagship”.

80% is probably high for the most popular flagship issues in history, but what about not so popular ones?

If only ten Mike trout hidden gems have ever surfaced out of 2023 topps series 1 baseball and only a handful have been graded, wouldn’t it make sense that the print run total of hidden gems could be 60-100 if only less than 15-20% of the product has actually been opened when considering all skus?

Sure hidden gems could be rarely seen, but they are primarily seeded in products that aren’t widely opened - the vast majority are still hidden in sealed wax, but they do exist - just not in the circulating hobby population.

Call it “circulating scarcity”, but the print run can still be higher than believed.

[MC99LBC]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The hidden gems print run is likely between 60-100 copies of each card.

Definitely no way it’s that high I have the entire set and have been watching g them like a hawk. I’ve never ever seen another copy of 2023 Pete Alonso or Mike Trout. I have the only copy’s that have ever been graded. Yes now everyone grades cards but I can assure you these are true ssp cards. Most have at best 10-20 copies

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MC99LBC

Definitely no way it’s that high I have the entire set and have been watching g them like a hawk. I’ve never ever seen another copy of 2023 Pete Alonso or Mike Trout. I have the only copy’s that have ever been graded. Yes now everyone grades cards but I can assure you these are true ssp cards. Most have at best 10-20 copies

But how can you be so sure if 85% of 2023 topps flagship remains in sealed form? Without serial-numbering, there is no way to tell.

Nobody is opening 2023 topps series 1 anymore, nobody.

That’s why you don’t see anymore Trouts - they are still stuck in wax, but it doesn’t mean they don’t exist.

[MC99LBC]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

A previous poster just mentioned “flagship”.

80% is probably high for the most popular flagship issues in history, but what about not so popular ones?

If only ten Mike trout hidden gems have ever surfaced out of 2023 topps series 1 baseball and only a handful have been graded, wouldn’t it make sense that the print run total of hidden gems could be 60-100 if only less than 15-20% of the product has actually been opened when considering all skus?

Sure hidden gems could be rarely seen, but they are primarily seeded in products that aren’t widely opened - the vast majority are still hidden in sealed wax, but they do exist - just not in the circulating hobby population.

Call it “circulating scarcity”, but the print run can still be higher than believed.

There is only 1 PSA 2023 trout graded I have it along with the Pete Alonso I have the only full PSA graded sets of 2023 and 2024 I am on the hunt for these like crazy I’ve never even seen another Alonso ever

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MC99LBC

There is only 1 PSA 2023 trout graded I have it along with the Pete Alonso I have the only full PSA graded sets of 2023 and 2024 I am on the hunt for these like crazy I’ve never even seen another Alonso ever

You help to show my point - you don’t see them surface because nobody is releasing them from sealed 2023 topps series 1 wax, nobody is opening this product to pull the cards.

But 60-100 total copies of each hidden gems card still exists, they are just still living in sealed product.

I believe the circulating print run is possibly less than 15 for many hidden gems, but their total print run is still in the 60-100 range.

[hermanotarjeta]

The initial claim that possibly only 5 of each hidden gems exists is completely bogus - the only way to show that is if 100% of the product is opened and all the cards have surfaced.

Without a serial-number, for the most part as there have been duplicate serial numbers made before, these hype claims are unsubstantiated.