2024 GPK Battle of the Bands - Green Day - Page 11

eastbayak · 08-26-2025, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LondonGames

Those seem like really great pulls from 3 boxes! I like the value even when you don't hit a relic or Auto. Seeing 2 /25s hit in the 4 boxes opened so far, I like the chances of hitting a 1/1 from this stuff.

Bummer on a box with 1, but you're still ahead of the game with 7 in 3 boxes I suppose.

That crumpled has to be huuuuuge

Appreciate it! Unsure how I did from a value perspective but I don't follow the GPK market at all.

Just gonna set aside a complete base set + Tribute to East Bay insert set (and maybe a couple other inserts if I'm close enough), decide on what parallels to keep (if any), and list the rest (as well as help others with set needs).

eastbayak · 08-26-2025, 01:13 AM

Here's my set needs for anyone who wants to trade (I have a lot of duplicates):

Base:
4b
5b
6b
22a
23a
24a
31b
32b
33b
41b

B SIDES
BS-1a
BS-3b
BS-5b
BS-6a

BATTLE OF THE BANDS
BB-5

DOOKIE 30 YEARS
D-1
D-3
D-4
D-6
D-8

ALBUM ART:
AA-1
AA-2
AA-3
AA-7
AA-8
AA-11
AA-13

kakarot12 · 08-26-2025, 03:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Lastly, I noticed some collation issue (you hit 2 "Tribute to East Bay" cards per box

Definitely not always 2 per box as my box had zero.

TimBuckTwo · 08-26-2025, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Definitely not always 2 per box as my box had zero.

Thanks @Flopps

tevans333 · 08-26-2025, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Definitely not always 2 per box as my box had zero.

Maybe your 2 extra numbered cards came at the expense of these inserts? I'd take that trade off.

kakarot12 · 08-26-2025, 08:38 AM

Video is up of my second box. Check it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXlUBycoi9A

tevans333 · 08-26-2025, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Video is up of my second box. Check it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXlUBycoi9A

Thanks for posting the video, nice work. Looks like 3 numbered, you came out ahead again. That standing room only /10 is a sweet hit!

justin80 · 08-26-2025, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Video is up of my second box. Check it out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXlUBycoi9A

Thanks for posting the video. Good stuff!

bub838 · 08-26-2025, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bruin7

Not necessarily true. I remember one of my Ohtani 50/50 boxes yielded 4 numbered cards which included 2 gold refractors /50 along with 2 base refractors one of which was HR #50. Suffice to say we went to Sizzlers that night.

In the Ohtani 50/50 case that was because there were a lot of boxes that had no numbered hits. They may have said they would be in there but they weren't. Your box was an extreme outlier.

Bruin7 · 08-26-2025, 10:14 AM

The crumpled parallels are awesome looking. Way more eye appeal than the colored bordered cards. Definitely want an East Bay set. That Mt Diablo card reminds me of my childhood in Danville, CA.

Bob Ross · 08-26-2025, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Definitely not always 2 per box as my box had zero.

Contact those morons for missing hits.

tevans333 · 08-26-2025, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Contact those morons for missing hits.

He’s taking about inserts, not hits. He got 7 hits out of 2 boxes instead of the 4 he should have gotten.

hotcalsun · 08-26-2025, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Ross

Contact those morons for missing hits.

I think in this case it is a collation issue rather than a missing hit issue.

His two boxes had 4 numbered parallels and 3 numbered parallels respectively.

His boxes had zero of the insert set "Tribute to the East Bay" which are not guaranteed whereas AK's had 2 of those insert cards per box.

(just saw Tevans post and adding for clarity on Tribute to the East Bay)

tevans333 · 08-26-2025, 10:41 AM

Just for the fun of speculation until we have official odds. When I calculated ~1800 cases, that didn't account for Topps holding back 10% for defects and replacements, which is the common percentage they hold back. If in addition to that, we change the assumed number of numbered hits per box from 2 to 3, we get a hair over 1k cases.

I'm really looking forward to seeing some case breaks to see how the autos and relics fall. That guitar string relic was outstanding.

hotcalsun · 08-26-2025, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tevans333

Just for the fun of speculation until we have official odds. When I calculated ~1800 cases, that didn't account for Topps holding back 10% for defects and replacements, which is the common percentage they hold back. If in addition to that, we change the assumed number of numbered hits per box from 2 to 3, we get a hair over 1k cases.

I'm really looking forward to seeing some case breaks to see how the autos and relics fall. That guitar string relic was outstanding.

Me, too -- I'll break one of my 2 cases tomorrow night and post any interesting results here!

eastbayak · 08-26-2025, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kakarot12

Definitely not always 2 per box as my box had zero.

Ah, sorry for jumping the gun on that one. Ripped 7 loose boxes and hit 2 per so I thought it was safe to assume.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bruin7

The crumpled parallels are awesome looking. Way more eye appeal than the colored bordered cards. Definitely want an East Bay set. That Mt Diablo card reminds me of my childhood in Danville, CA.

Fully agreed, the crumpled parallels are incredible (especially in-hand)!! The East Bay set will be easy to complete since they're not rare, which is awesome because they're so cool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

I think in this case it is a collation issue rather than a missing hit issue.

His two boxes had 4 numbered parallels and 3 numbered parallels respectively.

His boxes had zero of the insert set "Tribute to the East Bay" which are not guaranteed whereas AK's had 2 of those insert cards per box.

(just saw Tevans post and adding for clarity on Tribute to the East Bay)

Yeah, that was my mistake. Assumed they were guaranteed when they're not.

There's definitely some collation issues. Once organizing my cards into a binder, I noticed a lot of (at least) 3 card patterns (vast majority of those 3-card patterns were sequential ones, like, 1-2-3, 4-5-6, etc, although not presenting in that exact order).

Quote:

Originally Posted by tevans333

Just for the fun of speculation until we have official odds. When I calculated ~1800 cases, that didn't account for Topps holding back 10% for defects and replacements, which is the common percentage they hold back. If in addition to that, we change the assumed number of numbered hits per box from 2 to 3, we get a hair over 1k cases.

I'm really looking forward to seeing some case breaks to see how the autos and relics fall. That guitar string relic was outstanding.

Because there's at least some 1-numbered box hits (I had 2), I think it's one of those 2 numbered cards (on average) per box instances.

IIRC, I hit 15 numbered boxes across 7 boxes (2.14 per box).

Quote:

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

Me, too -- I'll break one of my 2 cases tomorrow night and post any interesting results here!

Best of luck with your case rip! I'd be lying if I told you I wasn't tempted to rip mine.

dunquixote1 · 08-26-2025, 11:29 AM

Maybe it was already stated, but are the autos redemptions?

Bruin7 · 08-26-2025, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

Maybe it was already stated, but are the autos redemptions?

I hope not as that will protect the case value down the road.

eastbayak · 08-26-2025, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dunquixote1

Maybe it was already stated, but are the autos redemptions?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bruin7

I hope not as that will protect the case value down the road.

Although unsure, I'd like to assume that most are live because most are sticker autos.

From a logical standpoint, I can't see the hold-up unless they weren't able to get the stickers back in time (but assume it's easier to get those back then sending out cards to have signed on-card).

hotcalsun · 08-26-2025, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Although unsure, I'd like to assume that most are live because most are sticker autos.

From a logical standpoint, I can't see the hold-up unless they weren't able to get the stickers back in time (but assume it's easier to get those back then sending out cards to have signed on-card).

I had the same question given the Topps reel yesterday of the relic guitar strings. It was in the sort of holder you might get a redemption from Topps on, so I was curious if the relics / autos were live or not.

Time will tell.

anusinha · 08-26-2025, 12:08 PM

these will be easy to weigh if the thick hits are live

eastbayak · 08-26-2025, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

I had the same question given the Topps reel yesterday of the relic guitar strings. It was in the sort of holder you might get a redemption from Topps on, so I was curious if the relics / autos were live or not.

Time will tell.

Wouldn't be surprised if the relic autos are redemptions (being that they're the main chase hits) but can see a lot of the standard card sticker autos being live.

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

these will be easy to weigh if the thick hits are live

Relic autos might not be live but unsigned relics should be so there could be a weighing issue.

hotcalsun · 08-26-2025, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Wouldn't be surprised if the relic autos are redemptions (being that they're the main chase hits) but can see a lot of the standard card sticker autos being live.

Relic autos might not be live but unsigned relics should be so there could be a weighing issue.

Agreed on both, would also increase value of cases (given 20 boxes) if all are live and weighing is a concern.

kakarot12 · 08-26-2025, 01:05 PM

For what it’s worth, the side of the box says find Green Day autographs*

*may contain redemption cards with expiration dates.

Not sure if that’s just something generic they put all on their products or not.

LondonGames · 08-26-2025, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tevans333

Just for the fun of speculation until we have official odds. When I calculated ~1800 cases, that didn't account for Topps holding back 10% for defects and replacements, which is the common percentage they hold back. If in addition to that, we change the assumed number of numbered hits per box from 2 to 3, we get a hair over 1k cases.

I'm really looking forward to seeing some case breaks to see how the autos and relics fall. That guitar string relic was outstanding.

Not necessarily true. Ohtani gold.

08-26-2025, 10:14 AM	#260
Bruin7 Member Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 3,847	The crumpled parallels are awesome looking. Way more eye appeal than the colored bordered cards. Definitely want an East Bay set. That Mt Diablo card reminds me of my childhood in Danville, CA. __________________ UCLA CLASS OF 2002

08-26-2025, 01:13 AM	#252
eastbayak Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 16,000 eastbayak	Here's my set needs for anyone who wants to trade (I have a lot of duplicates): Base: 4b 5b 6b 22a 23a 24a 31b 32b 33b 41b B SIDES BS-1a BS-3b BS-5b BS-6a BATTLE OF THE BANDS BB-5 DOOKIE 30 YEARS D-1 D-3 D-4 D-6 D-8 ALBUM ART: AA-1 AA-2 AA-3 AA-7 AA-8 AA-11 AA-13

08-26-2025, 08:38 AM	#256
kakarot12 Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Ohio Posts: 1,127 jrc12	Video is up of my second box. Check it out https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXlUBycoi9A

08-26-2025, 10:41 AM	#264
tevans333 Member Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 84	Just for the fun of speculation until we have official odds. When I calculated ~1800 cases, that didn't account for Topps holding back 10% for defects and replacements, which is the common percentage they hold back. If in addition to that, we change the assumed number of numbered hits per box from 2 to 3, we get a hair over 1k cases. I'm really looking forward to seeing some case breaks to see how the autos and relics fall. That guitar string relic was outstanding.

08-26-2025, 11:29 AM	#267
dunquixote1 Member Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 297	Maybe it was already stated, but are the autos redemptions?

08-26-2025, 12:08 PM	#271
anusinha Member Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 13,565	these will be easy to weigh if the thick hits are live

08-26-2025, 01:05 PM	#274
kakarot12 Member Join Date: Jul 2015 Location: Ohio Posts: 1,127 jrc12	For what it’s worth, the side of the box says find Green Day autographs* *may contain redemption cards with expiration dates. Not sure if that’s just something generic they put all on their products or not.