Time to start prospecting Jasson Dominguez?

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Buying under-the-radar names, hoping they become prospects of note, and finally (and most importantly), selling right at call-up.

Yeah, im trying to figure out how to do that, lol. Do I just ignore anyone basically on the top 100 list already?

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Turnitin2004

He's only 22 though. He's 2 years younger than Aaron Judge was when he debuted. Could it just be as simple as Dominguez isn't ready, but by the time he's 24 he could be great? Let's just say that happens. Would his cards rebound significantly or would it be too late?

He's improved over last year but not coming to close to the once lofty expectations. He's been a defensive liability and now there's even trade chatter when he was formerly "untouchable" as a top prospect. Sure, if you find some rookie refractors in a dollar box, then maybe scoop them up, but not a player I'm throwing anything more than that at.

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He's improved over last year but not coming to close to the once lofty expectations. He's been a defensive liability and now there's even trade chatter when he was formerly "untouchable" as a top prospect. Sure, if you find some rookie refractors in a dollar box, then maybe scoop them up, but not a player I'm throwing anything more than that at.

I was never in on him at the super hype, my thought is just unless the yankees had absolutely know idea what they were talking about (as well as scouts) he should still be a very good player at some point. At 22 he could easily still be in the minors and mashing, and if that were the case his cards would still be going for a ton.

Adrian Beltré hit .215 with 7 homers in his first season, and .275 with 15 homers his second season. Turned out alright.

Im not saying thats what Jasson will become, just that 400 pro ABs doesn't tell us everything.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Turnitin2004

Yeah but those are current top prospects and their prices are super high already. Doesn't that kind of defeat the purpose of prospecting? You have to get them before they have the super hype. I think id rather turn a 50$ card into a 300$ card than risk $750 into $1500 even though its more money.

In that case, yes, you're better off looking into guys that have potential (have tools, are young for the level, maybe got hurt so people overlook them, have some tools but not others, etc).

Basically the cheaper you go with prospect cards the more willing you have to be to believe in the guy and have a reason for buying them. I'll use an example of a guy I like who is relatively cheap but I think you could be very good: Chase Harlan. He's young for his level (just turned 19), has a good build, and massive amounts of power that hasn't really come through in games yet. His cards are relatively undervalued because he hasn't had a meteoric rise a guy like Jesus Made or Konnor Griffin has, but I think he has potential to pop off next year.

That's the key behind prospecting: finding traits you value, weighing them against common consensus (card prices and prospect rankings) and then finding the mismatches. The best ones are where a prospect is highly regarded statistically, in the media, and has great tools, but is still undervalued. That's where you have huge opportunity. Alfredo Duno is a great example.

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by kipgen

In that case, yes, you're better off looking into guys that have potential (have tools, are young for the level, maybe got hurt so people overlook them, have some tools but not others, etc).

Basically the cheaper you go with prospect cards the more willing you have to be to believe in the guy and have a reason for buying them. I'll use an example of a guy I like who is relatively cheap but I think you could be very good: Chase Harlan. He's young for his level (just turned 19), has a good build, and massive amounts of power that hasn't really come through in games yet. His cards are relatively undervalued because he hasn't had a meteoric rise a guy like Jesus Made or Konnor Griffin has, but I think he has potential to pop off next year.

That's the key behind prospecting: finding traits you value, weighing them against common consensus (card prices and prospect rankings) and then finding the mismatches. The best ones are where a prospect is highly regarded statistically, in the media, and has great tools, but is still undervalued. That's where you have huge opportunity. Alfredo Duno is a great example.

Thanks very much for this detailed answer. Appreciate the advice. Funny I actually liked Duno when I was doing quick research, then I think I found out he was a catcher, and I always think catching prospects do poorly. But he is someone I had my eye on. If he moves off catcher and become like a DH or 1B might be great.

[base set]

Good thread everyone, thanks. No broken record never-have-I-ever-read-a-thread-yadda

I’m waiting on more of a price drop on one of his RCs because I enjoy the card, not to inve$t in it. Aside from straight prospect calculus, I figure there is still too much Yankee-fan-base built into his prices. Though I’m not particularly cogent on Yankee outfield depth, it feels like a cut-bait situation for JD, eventually.

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by base set

Good thread everyone, thanks. No broken record never-have-I-ever-read-a-thread-yadda

I’m waiting on more of a price drop on one of his RCs because I enjoy the card, not to inve$t in it. Aside from straight prospect calculus, I figure there is still too much Yankee-fan-base built into his prices. Though I’m not particularly cogent on Yankee outfield depth, it feels like a cut-bait situation for JD, eventually.

Would we agree that at 22 had he still be in the minors and was hitting like .295 with 20 homers each of the last 2 years his cards would be going for insane money still?

[ScooterD]

I have enjoyed buying post-hype “sleepers” in the last 15-20 years with mixed results. I can confirm the pitfalls discussed above:

People who bought high may continue to hold to avoid losses, so relatively limited buying compared to people still under the radar. The “fool my once” factor is real, so they have to have 3-4 productive season (instead of 1-2) before the needle substantially moves. Age is a big factor - the younger the better due to the possibility of continued growth with experience.

You can have success in this arena, but you won’t retire on it.

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I have enjoyed buying post-hype “sleepers” in the last 15-20 years with mixed results. I can confirm the pitfalls discussed above:

People who bought high may continue to hold to avoid losses, so relatively limited buying compared to people still under the radar. The “fool my once” factor is real, so they have to have 3-4 productive season (instead of 1-2) before the needle substantially moves. Age is a big factor - the younger the better due to the possibility of continued growth with experience.

You can have success in this arena, but you won’t retire on it.

Im definitely not looking to retire, just make some side money doing something that seems fun. Some people have the speculating stock market, I enjoy baseball, so trying to speculate on who's going to be good or bad is kinda fun. But similar to the stock market im not looking to buy at the top. I don't want to buy the Wanders and Miz's and Skene's when everyone knows about them. I'm trying to find the guys that people aren't aware of yet and see them become very good to great. Which I assume is harder.

[kipgen]

Originally Posted by Turnitin2004

Thanks very much for this detailed answer. Appreciate the advice. Funny I actually liked Duno when I was doing quick research, then I think I found out he was a catcher, and I always think catching prospects do poorly. But he is someone I had my eye on. If he moves off catcher and become like a DH or 1B might be great.

You're right, catchers need an outsized power tool in order to be appealing from a collecting point of view. But the same is also true of 1B or DH, it's just the nature of things. If you can't pad your WAR with defense, you have to be really good at offense. I wouldn't rule him out just based on that though, we've seen guys like Cal Raleigh and Samuel Basallo become valuable recently.

Something else to note, prospects don't necessarily need to make it all the way to the majors and do well in order for their cards to become more valuable. If a prospect that's already highly ranked (like Duno) can rise through the ranks of the minor leagues while maintaining their skill, they can become a top 25, top 10 prospect, and those are the guys that everyone sees, so they become more valuable. That's another challenge you face with unknown prospects; the call up to the majors has less of an effect on their prices because nobody knows who they are yet. It requires them to make an impact at the major league level in order for people to pay attention. Conversely, a guy like Roman Anthony making his debut gets a ton of eyeballs and headlines, which is good for prices.

[Turnitin2004]

Originally Posted by kipgen

You're right, catchers need an outsized power tool in order to be appealing from a collecting point of view. But the same is also true of 1B or DH, it's just the nature of things. If you can't pad your WAR with defense, you have to be really good at offense. I wouldn't rule him out just based on that though, we've seen guys like Cal Raleigh and Samuel Basallo become valuable recently.

Something else to note, prospects don't necessarily need to make it all the way to the majors and do well in order for their cards to become more valuable. If a prospect that's already highly ranked (like Duno) can rise through the ranks of the minor leagues while maintaining their skill, they can become a top 25, top 10 prospect, and those are the guys that everyone sees, so they become more valuable. That's another challenge you face with unknown prospects; the call up to the majors has less of an effect on their prices because nobody knows who they are yet. It requires them to make an impact at the major league level in order for people to pay attention. Conversely, a guy like Roman Anthony making his debut gets a ton of eyeballs and headlines, which is good for prices.

Great point, never thought of it that way. Though I was thinking usually if you find someone good they end up in the top 25-50 prospects before getting called up, but I guess thats true it's not always the case. Great point about them gaining value as they rise before they even do anything in the majors. Interesting insight.