The Official Options Thread

[Blazed]

Employment report dropped this morning

Nonfarm payroll gains were sharply revised down: May's total dropped from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000—a combined cut of 258,000 jobs.

Uh oh

U.S. INTEREST RATES FUTURES SHOW HIGHER RISK OF FED CUT AT NEXT MEETING AFTER PAYROLLS DATA

FUTURES IMPLY TRADERS SEE 75 PCT CHANCE FED EASING 25 BP AT SEPT MEETING, VS 45% BEFORE JOBS REPORT

Revised down by about 75%. In order to keep interest rates high and access to affordable borrowing options out of reach, this is what you have to do

Average hourly earnings are up I'm guessing because the lower paying jobs are going away

Looking to see if SPX can reclaim and hold 6300. Didn't have any put positions so missed the move

See how long it takes the market to bounce back

Watching FNMA today, shares going for $9 - $9.25 pre, employment data put the skids on everything for now lol


SPX: 6210 bottom / 6350 top - Got a nice range off data so should be a good day

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX: 6210 bottom / 6350 top - Got a nice range off data so should be a good day

SPX: 6210 bottom✅- grabbed 5 2027 620 SPY leaps when target hit

Heavy buying @ key level




Next week should be just as fun

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX: 6210 bottom✅- grabbed 5 2027 620 SPY leaps when target hit

Heavy buying @ key level




Next week should be just as fun

Hahaha. Grabbed me one 625 SPY Leap, 9/31/26 expiry. When as Far out as my capital allowed me to.

My this song and dance works out for us this time. Hahaha. 570 Puts we hardly knew ye.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

Hahaha. Grabbed me one 625 SPY Leap, 9/31/26 expiry. When as Far out as my capital allowed me to.

My this song and dance works out for us this time. Hahaha. 570 Puts we hardly knew ye.

Nice!

Flow was buying strong enough @ the bottom it made sense to do some leaps

Everything is looking good except the cooked books and one Fed board member resigned already

Whose next

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Nice!

Flow was buying strong enough @ the bottom it made sense to do some leaps

Everything is looking good except the cooked books and one Fed board member resigned already

Whose next

I bought off the open because the price had dropped to my 625ish level. However as I looked throughout the day I did see 620 holding very well. I would expect a test of 600 possibly if there is more bad news. However I imagine one rate cut and BOOM. Not to mention it appears retail traders don't fall the drop ever since the April tariff drop, therefore any sudden pullbacks get bought up more quickly, think it would have to be a slow melt down for the market to move and stay down.

[Blazed]

While the market pumped today, still watching for any reversal signals. If the markets decide to do what they were supposed to do in June there could be some more downside which is why I got 2027 leaps just in case

Originally Posted by Blazed

SPX: 6210 bottom✅- grabbed 5 2027 620 SPY leaps when target hit

Heavy buying @ key level




Next week should be just as fun

Heavy buying @ key level✅




grabbed 5 2027 620 SPY leaps✅- super easy trade to see




-------------------------------------------------

SPX is right in between whole psych #'s 6250 / 6300

Watching to see which one gets hit first before considering any trades

Quiet week for data, but will be watching for any tariff news/tweets this week

Also going to see if the Thurs/Fri sell off had any impact on leveraged traders

[ajlaxmn]

SPY tomorrow, we break 634 (Positive Gamma) we see 640 (Negative Gamma up to 640), bounce at 626 (positive Gamma).

650 is the larger reject point, positive gamma here on multiple expiries.

8/15 has biggest % of Gamma Expiring, 32%.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by ajlaxmn

SPY tomorrow, we break 634 (Positive Gamma) we see 640 (Negative Gamma up to 640), bounce at 626 (positive Gamma).

650 is the larger reject point, positive gamma here on multiple expiries.

8/15 has biggest % of Gamma Expiring, 32%.

Correct

There was also a significant amount of gamma added to 6000 until Friday, which now hints that support needed to be reinforced down there - about 300 points from here

Depending on how SPX moves up here above 6300 will decide if we get down there

Just watching flow and volume for now and staying long until I see something in flow/charts that says otherwise

[Blazed]

Continuing to push higher on low volume with no data today, however we have tariff news looming at any time off-calendar

Technicals are showing a slowdown in upside momentum so I'll keep this on watch

Need a strong break below 6300 for a test of 6250 to see more downside

I'll be watching for put entry if there's a strong break below 6300 (volume + flow)

SPX: 6300 key / 6250 (6248) bottom / 6350 top > break above > 6380

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Continuing to push higher on low volume with no data today, however we have tariff news looming at any time off-calendar

Technicals are showing a slowdown in upside momentum so I'll keep this on watch

Need a strong break below 6300 for a test of 6250 to see more downside

I'll be watching for put entry if there's a strong break below 6300 (volume + flow)

SPX: 6300 key / 6250 (6248) bottom / 6350 top > break above > 6380

Target hit, 6380 (probably not today) is the next one after a break and hold of 6350

Trading made easy and stress free just by watching levels

Take all the trash off the charts and simplify it

[ajlaxmn]

Lots of Positive Gamma on SPY tomorrow 625 to 630, see if this causes SPY to hold 630. Tomorrow biggest negative pull is 630. Thin Negative Gamma, and even thinner positive Gamma up to 641, would not expect to get there tomorrow, however Friday has biggest negative Gamma at 645.

8/15 Gamma expiry increased to 34%

[ajlaxmn]

Depending on open, going to grab one leap of FTNT, earnings caused drop, got below my 81 price level, going 10 months outs. Will look to cut at 200 Daily depending on how quickly it gets there.

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

grabbed 5 2027 620 SPY leaps✅- super easy trade to see



SPX is right in between whole psych #'s 6250 / 6300

Watching to see which one gets hit first before considering any trades

Quiet week for data, but will be watching for any tariff news/tweets this week

Also going to see if the Thurs/Fri sell off had any impact on leveraged traders

Originally Posted by Blazed

Target hit, 6380 (probably not today) is the next one after a break and hold of 6350

Trading made easy and stress free just by watching levels

Take all the trash off the charts and simplify it

Currently above it - still pushing off low volume

Staying long until I see strong signals saying otherwise

Watching for 6400 / 6450 (6456) / 6380 > 6350

[Blazed]

No data today

Will be watching for any off calendar news today

Not actively trading today unless any major news drops

Staying long until a break of 6300 then I'll look for possible put entry

[Blazed]

FNMA & FMCC popped today

Still have full position

Would be nice to get off OTC and back on NYSE

--------------------------------------

Added:

BREAKING: The Trump administration is preparing to sell stock in mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an offering it believes could raise around $30 billion and kick off later this year, per WSJ

[Blazed]

Looks like the IPO for FNMA FMCC will be in Nov based on Trump/Pulte's post

Potentially merging the 2 together to create the Great American mortgage Corp at some point

This could get interesting

[Blazed]

A lot of important data this week - CPI PPI jobs and retail sales. Also a lot of Fed speakers, interesting to hear what they have to say

SPX: 6400 key level

FNMA popped this morning close to $11 now. Finally getting some possible direction on the future

Just watching today, staying long going into data

Not looking at puts until a break below 6300

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

Mentioned this back in the stock market thread about 3 years ago

Don't really check my shares too much as I mainly focus on options for day trading

I think this 4 year term is going to be FNMA's release from conservatorship

When it's released FNMA should fly

Should have bought more back when it was a $1

Something to watch - it was over $7/sh the other day

FNMA popped and finally broke 11

Still high risk as anything can happen pre IPO

Can't IPO from OTC either so uplisting to NYSE before Nov

Target price is all over the place post IPO - $28 - $300+/sh

Crazy times but a lot of attention on GSE's at the moment

[Blazed]

I thought the Tariffs were supposed to make inflation go up lol?

Markets popped on inflation data, CPI hit right on expectations

Staying long and just watching today

[ajlaxmn]

Range tomorrow for SPY 637 to 646. Large Positive Gamma at 637. Major negative Gamma at 645, with Positive Gamma at 646. Think we push up to 645 but struggle to get over 646.

8/15 GEX expiry increased to 47%

[Blazed]

SPX: 6500 is the next target where I'll trim some more calls, 6400 remains the largest strike and is now support

With that change, I'll be watching for a break below 6400 for possible puts

No data today, just fed speakers

[Blazed]

PPI came in hotter than expected, the September FOMC Meeting is going to be fun to watch lol

Market pulled back a little but bouncing back

Staying long and watching 6400 > 6378 area to the downside and 6475 > 6490 > 6500 to the upside

Staying long, OPEX tomorrow

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by Blazed

PPI came in hotter than expected, the September FOMC Meeting is going to be fun to watch lol

Market pulled back a little but bouncing back

Staying long and watching 6400 > 6378 area to the downside and 6475 > 6490 > 6500 to the upside

Staying long, OPEX tomorrow

Nice reject off 6475

[Blazed]

BREAKING: Berkshire Hathaway adds $UNH, $NUE, $LEN, $DHI, $LAMR in Q2.

From the other thread

Originally Posted by Blazed

The same as in that post, 226 - 257

226 is the 200ma on monthly

234 was also a good area to bounce as that's been previous support back in 2019 when it was in that price range

257 was a previous recent support area as well, which it bounced there

Best entry is at a key moving avg or close to it, in this case 200ma or 226

Starter position @ a support area (257 or 234) if you don't want to completely miss the trade, and add full position @ key ma or close to it (226) then hold your position long term 1+ years (unless more bad news comes out or you're satisfied with the gains and exit full position)

I don't follow UNH so no idea how it moves or why it dropped other than the fraud headline, but even without following it the charts and technicals all work the same way that's why the range was and still is 226 - 257

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by Blazed

From the other thread

Was wondering what drove that UNH post market pump. Bummed. I missed this second shot at UNH Call entry, wasn't watching this one close enough, kept checking in on it, but didn't look close enough to enter. Oh well.