Please Help Me Understand These WAR Numbers

[BennyA]

Traditional statistic guy here- AVG, HR, RBI-is what matters to me but can a WAR expert please explain this to me as I can't make sense of it:

Mike Trout
2012 Season--10.5 WAR .326 avg, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 182 hits, 49 SB, 129 R
2016 Season--10.4 WAR .315 avg, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 173 hits, 30 SB, 123 R

Aaron Judge
2022 Season--10.8 WAR .311 avg, 62 HR, 131 RBI, 177 hits, 16 SB, 133 R
2024 Season--10.8 WAR. .322 avg, 58 HR, 144 RBI, 180 hits, 10 SB, 122 R

How are Judge's two seasons not way above Trout's in WAR? Were the average players comparing to just that trash in the 2010s? Is there that much of a WAR bump between just playing CF over RF even though both are extremely average defensive outfielders? Big fan of both guys just wondering what is going on with WAR. Mickey Mantle only having a WAR of 11.3 in 1956 when he went .353/52/130, is absolutely crazy also when compared to the two Trout seasons of 10.5 and 10.4 above.

Disclaimer--I got these stats and WAR numbers from baseball reference if there is any mistakes.

[teosdesserts]

In 2012 Trout had a very good defensive year and across his career has been a very good baserunner. Judge is an all-time hitter but bad defensively and a bad baserunner. Simply put, WAR accounts for each part of a player's game and Trout being a decent defensive center fielder and a good baserunner made up the difference you see in the box score.

[bub838]

@Stifle

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BennyA

Traditional statistic guy here- AVG, HR, RBI-is what matters to me but can a WAR expert please explain this to me as I can't make sense of it:

Mike Trout
2012 Season--10.5 WAR .326 avg, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 182 hits, 49 SB, 129 R
2016 Season--10.4 WAR .315 avg, 29 HR, 100 RBI, 173 hits, 30 SB, 123 R

Aaron Judge
2022 Season--10.8 WAR .311 avg, 62 HR, 131 RBI, 177 hits, 16 SB, 133 R
2024 Season--10.8 WAR. .322 avg, 58 HR, 144 RBI, 180 hits, 10 SB, 122 R

How are Judge's two seasons not way above Trout's in WAR? Were the average players comparing to just that trash in the 2010s? Is there that much of a WAR bump between just playing CF over RF even though both are extremely average defensive outfielders? Big fan of both guys just wondering what is going on with WAR. Mickey Mantle only having a WAR of 11.3 in 1956 when he went .353/52/130, is absolutely crazy also when compared to the two Trout seasons of 10.5 and 10.4 above.

Disclaimer--I got these stats and WAR numbers from baseball reference if there is any mistakes.

You are using all offensive numbers to compare a metric that includes defense and baserunning as well, in addition to the fact that WAR compares the player to the league. So variance is the rest of the league performance will affect the WAR.

[SaveMeTheGum]

WAR isn't just about a player's overall stats, but the player's overall stats that year. The "R" is variable year to year, position to position, etc.

[49ersSF]

WAR is completely flawed. That's the simple answer. It puts way too much emphasis on a player simply playing a position (in this case, centerfield) and inflates the numbers based on that.

The irony is how Trout's greatness was often justified by his WAR, and his defenders often utilized WAR and only WAR to back up their argument. Now that Trout has moved to DH and his current WAR of 1.1, they now claim it's because he is a DH and it is not reflective of how he has played this year, which completely undermines their original argument.

I should point out that Trout never won a Gold Glove. At his best, he was just average on the defensive side and for most of his career he was below average in the field.

[tjforce]

How dare you people question WAR or Mike Trouts greatness!!!!!!

Since WAR and Mike Trout are both worshipped and hated at the same time around here, I propose a new metric derived by Blowout Forums, called BLOW:

Baseball
Lacks
Obvious
Wisdom

Each player is arbitrarily given a BLOW score between -5 and 20 based on whatever selected analysis you want to use to further the agenda you'd like to see.

Think Trout's the greatest player you've ever seen and you have tons of his 2011 Topps Updates sitting around that were bought at Pandemic Prices? Then his BLOW score can be 19.7 based on his baserunning and lack of teammate production at home from 2011-2016.

Think Trout is a dime store Dale Murphy and should have to buy a ticket to ever get in the HOF, while you pray for your Julio Rodriguez stash to make a comeback? Then Trout's lack of production in the 2020 season justifies his BLOW rating of 3.1 which places him right above Adam Dunn and below Felix Fermin all time.

Let the nerds deal with multiple regression and analytics. We're in an era where the value of a Home Run needs to be compared with the value of a guy that pitches on stilts for the Savannah Bananas. Time to worry less about WAR and more about BLOW-ing or else let the Gen Alphas pass you by.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by tjforce

How dare you people question WAR or Mike Trouts greatness!!!!!!

Since WAR and Mike Trout are both worshipped and hated at the same time around here, I propose a new metric derived by Blowout Forums, called BLOW:

Baseball
Lacks
Obvious
Wisdom

Each player is arbitrarily given a BLOW score between -5 and 20 based on whatever selected analysis you want to use to further the agenda you'd like to see.

Think Trout's the greatest player you've ever seen and you have tons of his 2011 Topps Updates sitting around that were bought at Pandemic Prices? Then his BLOW score can be 19.7 based on his baserunning and lack of teammate production at home from 2011-2016.

Think Trout is a dime store Dale Murphy and should have to buy a ticket to ever get in the HOF, while you pray for your Julio Rodriguez stash to make a comeback? Then Trout's lack of production in the 2020 season justifies his BLOW rating of 3.1 which places him right above Adam Dunn and below Felix Fermin all time.

Let the nerds deal with multiple regression and analytics. We're in an era where the value of a Home Run needs to be compared with the value of a guy that pitches on stilts for the Savannah Bananas. Time to worry less about WAR and more about BLOW-ing or else let the Gen Alphas pass you by.

I love it. Great new stat! I calculated Jazz Chisholm’s BLOW at 11.2, which is slightly up since he moved back to 2B after a rough go playing OF for the Marlins and 3B when he first got to the Yankees.

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

WAR is completely flawed. That's the simple answer. It puts way too much emphasis on a player simply playing a position (in this case, centerfield) and inflates the numbers based on that.

The irony is how Trout's greatness was often justified by his WAR, and his defenders often utilized WAR and only WAR to back up their argument. Now that Trout has moved to DH and his current WAR of 1.1, they now claim it's because he is a DH and it is not reflective of how he has played this year, which completely undermines their original argument.

I should point out that Trout never won a Gold Glove. At his best, he was just average on the defensive side and for most of his career he was below average in the field.

Gold Gloves are largely useless. Rafael Palmeiro won one at 1B for appearing in a grand total of 28 games at the position. He thought it was a literal joke when told he had won.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You are using all offensive numbers to compare a metric that includes defense and baserunning as well, in addition to the fact that WAR compares the player to the league. So variance is the rest of the league performance will affect the WAR.

And WAR also accounts for ballpark effects....Yankee Stadium's short porch in RF devalues power numbers accrued there somewhat.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

WAR is completely flawed. That's the simple answer. It puts way too much emphasis on a player simply playing a position (in this case, centerfield) and inflates the numbers based on that.

The irony is how Trout's greatness was often justified by his WAR, and his defenders often utilized WAR and only WAR to back up their argument. Now that Trout has moved to DH and his current WAR of 1.1, they now claim it's because he is a DH and it is not reflective of how he has played this year, which completely undermines their original argument.

I should point out that Trout never won a Gold Glove. At his best, he was just average on the defensive side and for most of his career he was below average in the field.

A centerfielder that can actually hit is way more valuable than a 1b that can actually hit because playing center is much harder. There's no grand conspiracy to create a WAR formula to make Trout look better. Hate to break it to you but every front office outside of maybe the White Sox is using WAR or similar metrics to evaluate players and determine contracts.

[BennyA]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

You are using all offensive numbers to compare a metric that includes defense and baserunning as well, in addition to the fact that WAR compares the player to the league. So variance is the rest of the league performance will affect the WAR.

Thanks for all responses thus far. So you are telling me that twice as many--29 more HR, 44 more RBI and a higher batting average (Judge 2024) is only deserving of less than 1 more WAR point due to 20 more SB (Trout 2016) and playing I guess a little better average outfield, because neither are great fielders? How does that make any sense?

Or was it the average 2010s players were just absolute trash thereby inflating the few good players WAR numbers over those years?

WAR seems extremely unreliable.

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by BennyA

WAR seems extremely unreliable.

1973 Bobby Grich

8.3 WAR .251 BA .373 OBA .387 SLG .760 OPS 12 home runs 50 RBIs **Didnt even make the all star team**

2012 Miguel Cabrera

7.1 WAR .330 BA .393 OBA .606 SLG .999 OPS 44 HR 139 RBI (first triple crown in nearly 50 years. MVP.

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by teosdesserts

In 2012 Trout had a very good defensive year and across his career has been a very good baserunner. Judge is an all-time hitter but bad defensively and a bad baserunner. Simply put, WAR accounts for each part of a player's game and Trout being a decent defensive center fielder and a good baserunner made up the difference you see in the box score.

Um. No.

[Absknicks]

Because Trout is benefitting greatly from the defensive components of WAR, specifically the overadjustment for CFs.

Its been widely understood for a long time now that the defensive component of WAR is complete nonsense (the guy who created it said as much).

Obviously Judge far surpassed anything Trout ever achieved in a single season.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BennyA

Thanks for all responses thus far. So you are telling me that twice as many--29 more HR, 44 more RBI and a higher batting average (Judge 2024) is only deserving of less than 1 more WAR point due to 20 more SB (Trout 2016) and playing I guess a little better average outfield, because neither are great fielders? How does that make any sense?



Or was it the average 2010s players were just absolute trash thereby inflating the few good players WAR numbers over those years?



WAR seems extremely unreliable.

It's unfair and inaccurate to say that because Trout was that much better than the league that the rest of the league was trash. They were the best players in the history of the world at the time. The way to look at it is to appreciate what Judge is doing against the best players in the history of the world now. It doesn't take anything away from what Trout did and what the quality of the other players were. Seems to me WAR is pretty reliable when you actually think about it. It's not designed to be an exact stat. It's a relative measurement to give a general idea of how someone performs compared to their peers. When you take all baseball history, there are a few outliers, but for the most part, WAR, stats, and the eye test all agree.

[asujbl]

Nerds

[ottobord]

Blowout should ban the guy that said Judge is bad defensively.

[teosdesserts]

Originally Posted by marl1220

Um. No.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aa...ts?position=OF

Please actually look at his base running and defensive stats and explain to me how I'm wrong. I don't care about the eye test or feelings.

[teosdesserts]

Originally Posted by ottobord

Blowout should ban the guy that said Judge is a bad defensively.

What is a better word for a below average fielder for 5 consecutive seasons? Poor?

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by teosdesserts

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aa...ts?position=OF

Please actually look at his base running and defensive stats and explain to me how I'm wrong. I don't care about the eye test or feelings.

It's called watching the game. Obviously you don't watch Judge play very much. And the bolded is just, well, very telling.

Just how in the world did the teams in the past ever get by without defensive metrics? Those poor slobs probably never got anything right.

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by ottobord

Blowout should ban the guy that said Judge is a bad defensively.

But the stats say....

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by tjforce

How dare you people question WAR or Mike Trouts greatness!!!!!!

Since WAR and Mike Trout are both worshipped and hated at the same time around here, I propose a new metric derived by Blowout Forums, called BLOW:

Baseball
Lacks
Obvious
Wisdom

Each player is arbitrarily given a BLOW score between -5 and 20 based on whatever selected analysis you want to use to further the agenda you'd like to see.

Think Trout's the greatest player you've ever seen and you have tons of his 2011 Topps Updates sitting around that were bought at Pandemic Prices? Then his BLOW score can be 19.7 based on his baserunning and lack of teammate production at home from 2011-2016.

Think Trout is a dime store Dale Murphy and should have to buy a ticket to ever get in the HOF, while you pray for your Julio Rodriguez stash to make a comeback? Then Trout's lack of production in the 2020 season justifies his BLOW rating of 3.1 which places him right above Adam Dunn and below Felix Fermin all time.

Let the nerds deal with multiple regression and analytics. We're in an era where the value of a Home Run needs to be compared with the value of a guy that pitches on stilts for the Savannah Bananas. Time to worry less about WAR and more about BLOW-ing or else let the Gen Alphas pass you by.

What was Dwight Gooden’s BLOW?

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

What was Dwight Gooden’s BLOW?

It was very high all throughout the 80’s.

[paparoke]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Each player is arbitrarily given a BLOW score between -5 and 20 based on whatever selected analysis you want to use to further the agenda you'd like to see.

I gave my wife a BLOW score of 10 and she immediately bumped my COUCH score to 20.