Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[nowiamsad]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Retail has hit that critical point where production is so high and the price is so high that the value of anything you pull out of retail has disappeared. Anything that is decent is impossible to pull and if you’ve pulled it, you’ve already spent too much money doing so.

Dynasty has also reached the point of living up to its name - die-nasty.

Degenerate gamblers are paying close to $1200 for the Ohtani player spot in a single 5 box case break. If the odds for any Ohtani are in the range of 1 in 30 cases, you’re spending $36,000 just to get one.

Going ten straight cases without hitting an Ohtani, which is very common, you’re out $12,000 with nothing to sho for it.

Don’t tell me it’s not degenerate gambling.

I’m thankful for it, means there’s less money/competition going towards singles. As fun as it is to land a hit (like I would know) I still enjoy hunting for singles.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Was at local show Sunday
Lots of people buying low end stuff
No wax

Saw Layton open 5 case dynasty break for 45000 dollars

Could not of been 10 k in cards

Also was at dicks and target yesterday. There had to be 200 blasters sitting

No clue how gambling keeps going. Such awful value

And for first time in 5 years. I feel that nobody wants most retail boxes

It is weird here in So Cal. I can go to some Targets and it's all wiped out Pokemon and Sports cards. You can buy panini stickers and Lorcana.

But if you go down the street to a Gamestop and a Barnes and Noble there are tons of blasters (similar to your Dicks and Targets in your area).

The only things gone are the WNBA products, and Optic and Select FB and of course Pokemon.

Seems some areas are still being FOMOd to buy and some places alot of people do not care.

Lot of transitioning it seems.

[anusinha]

What a world where pokemon and wnba are the 2 most in demand products

[Rage]

Target near me has been stocked up recently even with some Pokemon single packs still, the max of 2 of any TCG/Sports cards products per transaction probably helps slow down the buyouts. I can't complain

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by nowiamsad

I’m thankful for it, means there’s less money/competition going towards singles. As fun as it is to land a hit (like I would know) I still enjoy hunting for singles.

Singles are over the place right now....

I've been outbid on three different HOFers from a 2001 auto relic set I'm working on that's #/25, but Heritage Black Refractors of future HOFers are selling for bargain prices.

[pharmd19]

Has anyone been to the card show at the Ohio Valley Mall in St. Clairsville?

It looks like it's this weekend and I thought about checking it out, over 200 tables?

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

Was at local show Sunday
Lots of people buying low end stuff
No wax

Saw Layton open 5 case dynasty break for 45000 dollars

Could not of been 10 k in cards

Also was at dicks and target yesterday. There had to be 200 blasters sitting

No clue how gambling keeps going. Such awful value

And for first time in 5 years. I feel that nobody wants most retail boxes

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Retail has hit that critical point where production is so high and the price is so high that the value of anything you pull out of retail has disappeared. Anything that is decent is impossible to pull and if you’ve pulled it, you’ve already spent too much money doing so.

Dynasty has also reached the point of living up to its name - die-nasty.

Degenerate gamblers are paying close to $1200 for the Ohtani player spot in a single 5 box case break. If the odds for any Ohtani are in the range of 1 in 30 cases, you’re spending $36,000 just to get one.

Going ten straight cases without hitting an Ohtani, which is very common, you’re out $12,000 with nothing to sho for it.

Don’t tell me it’s not degenerate gambling.

I have to disagree regarding retail. I actually feel the exact opposite. Retail is closer in value to hobby now than it has ever been. There has been a steady shift of content and odds to retail that is evening the playing field. There was a time you couldn't pay me to suffer through Heritage blasters, and yet the last two releases I was opening multiple cases and made a nice ROI. Bowman retail is solid as well. Topps Chrome Baseball, while it doesn't have good resale value in either format, is still pretty loaded on the retail end.

Panini retail has been fantastic as well. Select and Optic retail, during Wemby's rookie year, were phenomenal compared to hobby. You could get twenty blasters for the price of one hobby box at that time and pull double the numbered cards along with all the extra base, inserts, and non-numbered Prizms. When WNBA exploded with Caitlin Clark, blasters were unreal. Select WWE wrestling (if you like WWE), has it's own #'d parallels and the popular gold flash prizms were just falling out of it.

Whether these boxes are collecting dust or not is a separate conversation. Maybe the misconceptions about retail have kept some folks away, but as someone who does this as a business, I am very happy with where retail is at right now.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I have to disagree regarding retail. I actually feel the exact opposite. Retail is closer in value to hobby now than it has ever been. There has been a steady shift of content and odds to retail that is evening the playing field. There was a time you couldn't pay me to suffer through Heritage blasters, and yet the last two releases I was opening multiple cases and made a nice ROI. Bowman retail is solid as well. Topps Chrome Baseball, while it doesn't have good resale value in either format, is still pretty loaded on the retail end.

Panini retail has been fantastic as well. Select and Optic retail, during Wemby's rookie year, were phenomenal compared to hobby. You could get twenty blasters for the price of one hobby box at that time and pull double the numbered cards along with all the extra base, inserts, and non-numbered Prizms. When WNBA exploded with Caitlin Clark, blasters were unreal. Select WWE wrestling (if you like WWE), has it's own #'d parallels and the popular gold flash prizms were just falling out of it.

Whether these boxes are collecting dust or not is a separate conversation. Maybe the misconceptions about retail have kept some folks away, but as someone who does this as a business, I am very happy with where retail is at right now.

I guess you haven’t tried opening bowman megas this year, lol.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I guess you haven’t tried opening bowman megas this year, lol.

Nope. I am well aware of how bad that product is for the value. I also view Bowman Mega as it's own product line. It isn't really a retail version of a hobby product other than the base packs they throw in. People are being expected to pay $50 for 10 mojos or whatever it is. That's nuts.

But if we are talking traditional retail, dollar for dollar, retail has become a great value compared to hobby SKUs in general.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Nope. I am well aware of how bad that product is for the value. I also view Bowman Mega as it's own product line. It isn't really a retail version of a hobby product other than the base packs they throw in. People are being expected to pay $50 for 10 mojos or whatever it is. That's nuts.

But if we are talking traditional retail, dollar for dollar, retail has become a great value compared to hobby SKUs in general.

Have you delved into any non-baseball panini products like 2024 football or 2024-25 basketball?

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Nope. I am well aware of how bad that product is for the value. I also view Bowman Mega as it's own product line. It isn't really a retail version of a hobby product other than the base packs they throw in. People are being expected to pay $50 for 10 mojos or whatever it is. That's nuts.

But if we are talking traditional retail, dollar for dollar, retail has become a great value compared to hobby SKUs in general.

No doubt getting $6 back from a $30 blaster is easier than getting $100 back from a $500 box.

However, trying to hit anything awesome out of a blaster is nearly impossible, the odds of getting something good out of hobby is still higher, though of course at a higher price point.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

No doubt getting $6 back from a $30 blaster is easier than getting $100 back from a $500 box.

However, trying to hit anything awesome out of a blaster is nearly impossible, the odds of getting something good out of hobby is still higher, though of course at a higher price point.

It's product dependent. There are still retail products returning value for the money, that's why they sell out while other products sit. Prizm WNBA is a good example. Yes, it's Caitlin Clark hype or nothing, but it's not impossible to pull a nice CC from a hanger or blaster. The value and floor on retail is also much better then a hobby box. For the price of a hobby box, you could open 30-40 hangers and easily pull some nice, valuable cards.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by bub838

It's product dependent. There are still retail products returning value for the money, that's why they sell out while other products sit. Prizm WNBA is a good example. Yes, it's Caitlin Clark hype or nothing, but it's not impossible to pull a nice CC from a hanger or blaster. The value and floor on retail is also much better then a hobby box. For the price of a hobby box, you could open 30-40 hangers and easily pull some nice, valuable cards.

But wnba?!!??

Hitting a red ink auto out of a heritage baseball blaster is no easy task.

[bub838]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

But wnba?!!??

Hitting a red ink auto out of a heritage baseball blaster is no easy task.

I know lol, but I'm just giving you an example of not all retail being terrible. I pulled a Clark silver from a $16 hanger I grabbed while grocery shopping. Gem'd it and sold it for almost $3000. Pulling a silver Clark isn't impossible either.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by bub838

I know lol, but I'm just giving you an example of not all retail being terrible. I pulled a Clark silver from a $16 hanger I grabbed while grocery shopping. Gem'd it and sold it for almost $3000. Pulling a silver Clark isn't impossible either.

Sure, you can make money betting on professional cornhole matches, but where’s the personal satisfaction in that, lol?

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

No doubt getting $6 back from a $30 blaster is easier than getting $100 back from a $500 box.

However, trying to hit anything awesome out of a blaster is nearly impossible, the odds of getting something good out of hobby is still higher, though of course at a higher price point.

This is where the math eludes some folks. The advantage varies from product to product, but in general, if you were to throw out an arbitrary number like $1,000, that same money spent on retail vs. hobby is going to favor retail the majority of the time over the past 2 years since the formats and odds have been adjusted.

$1,000 (at today's prices) buys you 24 hobby packs of 23/24 Select Basketball or 120 retail packs of 23/24 Select Basketball.

Even if the odds are better on hobby, you are getting 5x as much retail for the same price so you have to take the retail odds and divide by 5 to get the TRUE odds if you are comparing one SKU to the other. And that's just for the tougher #'d stuff. If you want to talk something basic like silver prizms which are the same odds in both SKU's, you are getting 5x as many in retail. 5x as many base sets. 5x as many inserts...all for that same $1,000.

It's not impossible to hit something awesome from a blaster at all. BUT you can't compare a single $30 blaster to a single $500 hobby box (using your example). That's not a fair comparison. The money has to match if you are going to compare the two. Figure out how many blasters you can buy for the price of a hobby box and then compare the two. That's the only valid way to do it and you will see that retail wins most times.

I've hit dozens of $100+ cards in blasters over the last two years. I pulled my Wemby Gold from a blaster that I sold for $3700 cash and the Purple I sold for $1,000. Luck plays a role obviously, but the odds of hitting those weren't tougher in retail when you factor in how much I was able to buy for the same price as hobby.

Even Heritage, where the price difference isn't as pronounced, was still far better in retail.

An ounce of gold is $3300. An ounce of silver is $36. If I offered you 125 ounces of silver for the same price as an ounce of gold, you wouldn't say "but gold is better". Yes, a single gold piece is better than a single silver piece but if you can get $4500 worth of silver for the same price as $3300 worth of gold, you are taking the silver 100/100 times unless you're a moron.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

This is where the math eludes some folks. The advantage varies from product to product, but in general, if you were to throw out an arbitrary number like $1,000, that same money spent on retail vs. hobby is going to favor retail the majority of the time over the past 2 years since the formats and odds have been adjusted.

$1,000 (at today's prices) buys you 24 hobby packs of 23/24 Select Basketball or 120 retail packs of 23/24 Select Basketball.

Even if the odds are better on hobby, you are getting 5x as much retail for the same price so you have to take the retail odds and divide by 5 to get the TRUE odds if you are comparing one SKU to the other. And that's just for the tougher #'d stuff. If you want to talk something basic like silver prizms which are the same odds in both SKU's, you are getting 5x as many in retail. 5x as many base sets. 5x as many inserts...all for that same $1,000.

It's not impossible to hit something awesome from a blaster at all. BUT you can't compare a single $30 blaster to a single $500 hobby box (using your example). That's not a fair comparison. The money has to match if you are going to compare the two. Figure out how many blasters you can buy for the price of a hobby box and then compare the two. That's the only valid way to do it and you will see that retail wins most times.

I've hit dozens of $100+ cards in blasters over the last two years. I pulled my Wemby Gold from a blaster that I sold for $3700 cash and the Purple I sold for $1,000. Luck plays a role obviously, but the odds of hitting those weren't tougher in retail when you factor in how much I was able to buy for the same price as hobby.

Even Heritage, where the price difference isn't as pronounced, was still far better in retail.

An ounce of gold is $3300. An ounce of silver is $36. If I offered you 125 ounces of silver for the same price as an ounce of gold, you wouldn't say "but gold is better". Yes, a single gold piece is better than a single silver piece but if you can get $4500 worth of silver for the same price as $3300 worth of gold, you are taking the silver 100/100 times unless you're a moron.

I can see your point coming from a pure money standpoint, the breaker culture has lifted the price of hobby boxes to the point that tilts things over to retail for pure resale value.

From my perspective, I should clarify that many things I like to chase which I consider awesome, like prizm cherry blossoms in basketball, gilded gold storms in baseball, dynasty, flawless, national treasures rpas, etc, are cards that don’t exist in retail boxes, so I hope you can see my perspective.

I really don’t care about prizm silvers and gold waves and other ceiling hits out of retail, as there are in most cases superior versions in hobby that I’m drawn to.

[hermanotarjeta]

You would also need to spend double the money in order to pull a red ink auto in a hobby box versus a retail box, at least for 2024 heritage.

That’s another reason I avoid retail, from the treasure hunter perspective who doesn’t want to deal with reselling hundreds of $1-$3 singles.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

This is where the math eludes some folks. The advantage varies from product to product, but in general, if you were to throw out an arbitrary number like $1,000, that same money spent on retail vs. hobby is going to favor retail the majority of the time over the past 2 years since the formats and odds have been adjusted.

$1,000 (at today's prices) buys you 24 hobby packs of 23/24 Select Basketball or 120 retail packs of 23/24 Select Basketball.

Even if the odds are better on hobby, you are getting 5x as much retail for the same price so you have to take the retail odds and divide by 5 to get the TRUE odds if you are comparing one SKU to the other. And that's just for the tougher #'d stuff. If you want to talk something basic like silver prizms which are the same odds in both SKU's, you are getting 5x as many in retail. 5x as many base sets. 5x as many inserts...all for that same $1,000.

It's not impossible to hit something awesome from a blaster at all. BUT you can't compare a single $30 blaster to a single $500 hobby box (using your example). That's not a fair comparison. The money has to match if you are going to compare the two. Figure out how many blasters you can buy for the price of a hobby box and then compare the two. That's the only valid way to do it and you will see that retail wins most times.

I've hit dozens of $100+ cards in blasters over the last two years. I pulled my Wemby Gold from a blaster that I sold for $3700 cash and the Purple I sold for $1,000. Luck plays a role obviously, but the odds of hitting those weren't tougher in retail when you factor in how much I was able to buy for the same price as hobby.

I think it also depends on volume.....the more you open, the more likely you are to pull something big.

The real question is which format offers better value at the single box level....

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I think it also depends on volume.....the more you open, the more likely you are to pull something big.

The real question is which format offers better value at the single box level....

Again, this comparison only makes sense if the cost of the box is the same. You are arguing with a stacked deck if you tell me that a single Heritage blaster has less value than a single Heritage hobby box. Of course it does.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I can see your point coming from a pure money standpoint, the breaker culture has lifted the price of hobby boxes to the point that tilts things over to retail for pure resale value.

From my perspective, I should clarify that many things I like to chase which I consider awesome, like prizm cherry blossoms in basketball, gilded gold storms in baseball, dynasty, flawless, national treasures rpas, etc, are cards that don’t exist in retail boxes, so I hope you can see my perspective.

I really don’t care about prizm silvers and gold waves and other ceiling hits out of retail, as there are in most cases superior versions in hobby that I’m drawn to.

I can definitely understand your perspective. I wasn't responding to that part. My comment was strictly about retail and the value it provides.

I only fly first class because I hate lines and cramped seats. I want the ticket that allows me to go to the front of the bag line, the front of the security line, the private lounge, and the big seat. There is absolutely no monetary value in that ticket. It's an overpriced luxury but the experience is worth it to me.

A lot of people feel that way about cards too. They just want the thrill of ripping into NT and pulling some six-figure logoman or whatever the chase is and don't care if the value is there. It's really hard to capture value and odds at the exact time. Play the value game, or play the odds game, but those are two very different games depending on what you're after.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

Again, this comparison only makes sense if the cost of the box is the same. You are arguing with a stacked deck if you tell me that a single Heritage blaster has less value than a single Heritage hobby box. Of course it does.

In 2024 heritage baseball, the odds for red ink autos are- 1:739 for hobby boxes and 1:1629 in blasters.

It would take 31 hobby boxes (cost $3100) to pull a red ink auto in hobby and 204 retail blasters (cost $6100) to pull a red ink auto in retail boxes.

So you see, it is twice as cost effective to open hobby boxes for the experience of pulling a red ink auto.

Sure, you will get twice as many packs which means twice as many high numbers, but as a treasure hunter, I don’t care about reselling $1 cards.

Plus, all the other hobby exclusive hits will take you over the retail break value much of the time.

For someone who cares more about hobby hits, that is the way to go for me. I don’t need thousands of unnumbered common cards.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

In 2024 heritage baseball, the odds for red ink autos are- 1:739 for hobby boxes and 1:1629 in blasters.

It would take 31 hobby boxes (cost $3100) to pull a red ink auto in hobby and 204 retail blasters (cost $6100) to pull a red ink auto in retail boxes.

So you see, it is twice as cost effective to open hobby boxes for the experience of pulling a red ink auto.

Sure, you will get twice as many packs which means twice as many high numbers, but as a treasure hunter, I don’t care about reselling $1 cards.

Plus, all the other hobby exclusive hits will take you over the retail break value much of the time.

For someone who cares more about hobby hits, that is the way to go for me. I don’t need thousands of unnumbered common cards.

But here's the thing...if you do spend $3100 to chase that red ink auto, you are still going to have thousands of unnumbered cards to deal with along with 1 very over-priced red ink auto. You aren't eliminating that problem. If your argument is purely that you can get a red ink auto for $3100 instead of $6100, then you win the argument.

The other hobby exclusive stuff won't exceed the value of the extra Base+SP sets. I can build double the 1-500 sets and sell them for $350-$400 for weeks after release.

At the end of the day, I practice what I preach. I'm not debating from the sidelines. I'm the guy who actually will open the 200 blasters and break everything down for resale. And from a purely monetary/value/business standpoint, that option provides the highest return for the majority of the time.

I'll concede that a red ink hunter is better off buying hobby if that's the only thing they care about, but that takes my original point so far off the rails into the niche world of red ink autos that it would no longer make sense for me to debate it. I'm not ripping 200 blasters in search of red ink.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

But here's the thing...if you do spend $3100 to chase that red ink auto, you are still going to have thousands of unnumbered cards to deal with along with 1 very over-priced red ink auto. You aren't eliminating that problem. If your argument is purely that you can get a red ink auto for $3100 instead of $6100, then you win the argument.

The other hobby exclusive stuff won't exceed the value of the extra Base+SP sets. I can build double the 1-500 sets and sell them for $350-$400 for weeks after release.

At the end of the day, I practice what I preach. I'm not debating from the sidelines. I'm the guy who actually will open the 200 blasters and break everything down for resale. And from a purely monetary/value/business standpoint, that option provides the highest return for the majority of the time.

I'll concede that a red ink hunter is better off buying hobby if that's the only thing they care about, but that takes my original point so far off the rails into the niche world of red ink autos that it would no longer make sense for me to debate it. I'm not ripping 200 blasters in search of red ink.

And I’ll concede that even at today’s elevated blaster prices, there can still be better value for resale by opening retail versus hobby.

However, I will take the 2x better odds at pulling a red ink auto in a single box of hobby over 3 blasters every day of the week from a treasure hunter’s perspective.

[Cavs16]

Originally Posted by anusinha

What a world where pokemon and wnba are the 2 most in demand products

You read my mine....pretty amazing indeed