Bobby Witt Jr. is he legit?

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Mahomie

It's interesting - Bobby Witt Sr. has a pretty wide gap between his career bWAR and fWAR tallies:

Career bWAR: 14.6
Career fWAR: 27.8

I did some research, and the TLDR is:
- He had decent raw stuff (Ks, HR suppression) = higher fWAR.
- He struggled with walks, sequencing, and contact management = lower bWAR.

fWAR is particularly useless for pitchers as it uses FIP and completely ignores unearned runs.

[Mahomie]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

fWAR is particularly useless for pitchers as it uses FIP and completely ignores unearned runs.

I agree, I like how bWAR uses RA9 instead of FIP (especially when comparing retired pitchers).

From my understanding, if the defense makes an error and an unearned run scores:

- fWAR treats it as an isolated defensive error, and the pitcher isn't dinged.

- bWAR says hold up, the pitcher still played a small part in that. If the pitcher made the batter whiff instead, then there wouldn't have been a ball in play for an error to occur in the first place.

They're both good tools though with their own utilities.

[tjforce]

All-Star Reserve....

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Mahomie

I agree, I like how bWAR uses RA9 instead of FIP (especially when comparing retired pitchers).

From my understanding, if the defense makes an error and an unearned run scores:

- fWAR treats it as an isolated defensive error, and the pitcher isn't dinged.

- bWAR says hold up, the pitcher still played a small part in that. If the pitcher made the batter whiff instead, then there wouldn't have been a ball in play for an error to occur in the first place.

They're both good tools though with their own utilities.

Exactly. Or worse, ball is grounded to pitcher and he throws it away. 10 unearned runs score. fWAR says, meh, all good.

[Skipscards]

Meanwhile…

19/7 to go!!!

[mudder35]

Originally Posted by tjforce

All-Star Reserve....

I'm really struggling to understand how Bobby Witt loses in a fan vote to Jacob Wilson. I get that the Royals fan base isn't exactly fired up like the Tigers might be, but I'm pretty sure the homeless A's aren't exactly lighting up the ballot box either. I also know Wilson has a better batting average, but I thought people didn't really care about average anymore and Wilson certainly isn't a slugger even though he has 9 hr's this year (and he seems more likely to end the year with 15 hr's then 20).

I just can't wrap my head around who is voting for Wilson over Witt? Bobby has a little bit of name recognition and star power, had a moment on the national stage at the hr derby, was scorching hot in the 2nd half of last year, led a historically hapless team to the postseason, and doesn't play for a broadly disliked franchise like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Astros. Wilson is a rookie contact hitter for the 2nd worst team and possibly the least recognizable roster (Miami?) in MLB. Maybe he's got a strong Instagram following that I don't know about? Someone please explain this to me.

Also, why didn't MLB reveal the voting number in final vote like they did in the initial round. Not claiming any conspiracy or anything, just thought it was weird.

[ObanMontecristo]

Everyone loves rookies. It’s also not a birthright. KC isn’t exactly NY or LA, either.

Wilson’s not undeserving. He’s hitting .339 and will likely get 200 hits… as a rookie. That doesn’t happen too often. Witt’s not having a great year, and only has 2 more HR than Wilson, and a lower OPS. Last year was last year.

[hermanotarjeta]

Maybe Witt’s hobby presence isn’t as prominent as we may think.

[ObanMontecristo]

More people vote for the ASG than the people here.

And they don’t give a crap about card values.

Who cares that there’s some competition at AL SS? Witt will be just fine. Soto’s also having a mediocre year by his standards and didn’t make it, but he’s still going to be hobby relevant.

[ThoseBackPages]

lol Jacob Wilson

[JCTaylor]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Maybe Witt’s hobby presence isn’t as prominent as we may think.

Hobby and broader MLB fandom are not really the same thing, and hobby presence is not indicative of how MLB fans might vote and I don’t think one has much bearing on the other.

Witt’s hobby presence is still pretty decent, but Wilson has clearly had the MLB media narrative so far this season for SS based on his early season hot streak. (The return to earth for Wilson is gonna be brutal in the second half though).


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[tjforce]

Plus ya gotta remember that All star voting started in the middle of Witt's May slump.

But hey: July has started out great through 2 games: 4-7 plus 2 walks, 2 SBs. Last July was the monster month that set him apart.

[mudder35]

Originally Posted by tjforce

Plus ya gotta remember that All star voting started in the middle of Witt's May slump.

But hey: July has started out great through 2 games: 4-7 plus 2 walks, 2 SBs. Last July was the monster month that set him apart.

I could maybe squint and justify Wilson over Witt in phase one based on hot start or the vote being diluted over the entire league, but he just lost head to head over 2.5 days. Casual mlb fans just looked at the two of them side by side and said I'd rather see Jacob Wilson start at SS for the AL than Bobby Witt. I follow baseball pretty close and I get the idea of rookie buzz, but Wilson isn't Roman Anthony, Jac Caglianone, or even Nick Kurtz. No one projects him to be a superstar or franchise pillar.

I just can't wrap my head around it. I'll be conservative and say Witt is a top 20 player in MLB. It's like Yandy Diaz beating Vlad Guerrero, or choosing Kyle Stowers over Acuna or Kyle Tucker. Nothing wrong with those guys or the season their having, but they aren't winning a popularity contest against recognizable names.

Is there anybody out there that isn't a Wilson/A's fan that looked at the two of them and chose Wilson and can explain why? I genuinely curious. I'd even be interested in a "I chose Wilson because I hate Witt because..."

[JCTaylor]

Originally Posted by mudder35

I could maybe squint and justify Wilson over Witt in phase one based on hot start or the vote being diluted over the entire league, but he just lost head to head over 2.5 days. Casual mlb fans just looked at the two of them side by side and said I'd rather see Jacob Wilson start at SS for the AL than Bobby Witt. I follow baseball pretty close and I get the idea of rookie buzz, but Wilson isn't Roman Anthony, Jac Caglianone, or even Nick Kurtz. No one projects him to be a superstar or franchise pillar.

I just can't wrap my head around it. I'll be conservative and say Witt is a top 20 player in MLB. It's like Yandy Diaz beating Vlad Guerrero, or choosing Kyle Stowers over Acuna or Kyle Tucker. Nothing wrong with those guys or the season their having, but they aren't winning a popularity contest against recognizable names.

Is there anybody out there that isn't a Wilson/A's fan that looked at the two of them and chose Wilson and can explain why? I genuinely curious. I'd even be interested in a "I chose Wilson because I hate Witt because..."

The people love batting average, lol.


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[NYRE2PECT]

The A's fan base hasn't had a lot to celebrate in the last five years! I could also imagine that he scooped in some of the Sacramento and Las Vegas vote with their being kind of all over the media for different things.

KC is in no man's land at the moment, to boot.

Congrats to Jacob, but it will likely look a lot different at year end.

[ObanMontecristo]

Originally Posted by mudder35

Is there anybody out there that isn't a Wilson/A's fan that looked at the two of them and chose Wilson and can explain why? I genuinely curious. I'd even be interested in a "I chose Wilson because I hate Witt because..."

I’m a Phillies fan, so not a fan of either team, but I like both players and chose Wilson.

You’ve already been given multiple reasons. ASG voting is done by a much broader audience, and neither player is on a team with a huge fan base like LA or NY to get tons of votes. When people vote, the players’ stats are right there to see, and a lot of people go with the guy who’s having the better year as opposed to the player’s history as a star (e.g. Soto, Trout not making the final cut).

Both players are good, but Wilson’s stats this year are better overall. Does that mean I think Wilson will have a better total career, or that I think he’s more hobby relevant than witt? Not necessarily, it’s just based on who’s had the better first half of 2025 so far. Witt’s great season last year actually tells me he can be MUCH better than he’s shown so far in 2025, so why hasn’t he been as good this year?

[fulltritty]

Originally Posted by ObanMontecristo

I’m a Phillies fan, so not a fan of either team, but I like both players and chose Wilson.

You’ve already been given multiple reasons. ASG voting is done by a much broader audience, and neither player is on a team with a huge fan base like LA or NY to get tons of votes. When people vote, the players’ stats are right there to see, and a lot of people go with the guy who’s having the better year as opposed to the player’s history as a star (e.g. Soto, Trout not making the final cut).

Both players are good, but Wilson’s stats this year are better overall. Does that mean I think Wilson will have a better total career, or that I think he’s more hobby relevant than witt? Not necessarily, it’s just based on who’s had the better first half of 2025 so far. Witt’s great season last year actually tells me he can be MUCH better than he’s shown so far in 2025, so why hasn’t he been as good this year?

This is exactly what I told my son when he asked why I didn't vote for Bo Bichette (his favorite player) who has more homeruns than Wilson.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Holy cow, don't have a meltdown over the All Star game.

[Biohazarddfl]

Hopefully, it puts a chip on Bobby's shoulder.

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[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Holy cow, don't have a meltdown over the All Star game.

It’s a moment of introspection for Bobby collectors.

Give them time to challenge their hobby existence.

They must ask themselves - “am I a true Bobby collector?”

[JCTaylor]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s a moment of introspection for Bobby collectors.

Give them time to challenge their hobby existence.

They must ask themselves - “am I a true Bobby collector?”

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[mudder35]

No meltdown and not concerned about card values. Actually just killing time while travelling. I'm just trying to make sense of how an outcome occurred. Most people are speculating as to why others would vote for Wilson over Witt and those that have said they voted Wilson over Witt did so because his batting average next to his name was better. I understand Trout and Soto being bigger names and losing out to enthused fan bases. But if it's just that his batting average is higher despite playing for a bad team and fan base, then why isn't Luis Arraez, for example, a multi-time All-Star starter?

[ThoseBackPages]

remember that they let people vote online.
that's never good

[LVDan]

Wilson has a big edge in avg but also small leads in OBP and OPS as well.
Witt has a small edge in HRs, big edge in steals but also has 45 more Ks.
Witt is the better defender and has accumulated more WAR.

I think valid arguments can be made for both players.

People get upset when "legacy names" get awarded the spots over players who may be more deserving based on 1st half performance.
Now people are upset because "hobby good" doesn't equate to more fan votes.

[ObanMontecristo]

Originally Posted by mudder35

No meltdown and not concerned about card values. Actually just killing time while travelling. I'm just trying to make sense of how an outcome occurred. Most people are speculating as to why others would vote for Wilson over Witt and those that have said they voted Wilson over Witt did so because his batting average next to his name was better. I understand Trout and Soto being bigger names and losing out to enthused fan bases. But if it's just that his batting average is higher despite playing for a bad team and fan base, then why isn't Luis Arraez, for example, a multi-time All-Star starter?

You’ve asked the same question 3 times now and got a multitude of reasons. You’re the only one who doesn’t seem to get it, probably because you’re not listening, you’re convinced you’re right, and nothing will satisfy you. I get it you’re pissed. Welcome to the ASG selection process.