Who's the next 100 WAR guy?

[redauto5]

Pujols was the last guy to do it. Until a few years ago Trout was a shoe in to exceed 100 career fWAR, but here he sits at 86.5 in his age 33 season with a whopping .5 WAR collected this year. Does Trout make it or does his body not let him?

If not Mike, who? Mookie is 32 with 72.8, collecting 2.5 WAR so far this year. Seems to be a long shot but possible, as we may be seeing Betts get old before our eyes. Or maybe it was just that crazy stomach bug at the beginning of the season and he throws a couple more 8 WAR seasons at us in quick succession, making his case seem much more winnable.

If not Mike or Mookie, who? Machado? Nope. Judge? 58.4 at age 33. Maybe Aaron just rips 4 more 10 WAR seasons and makes us bow down to his supreme greatness. Ramirez, Harper, Lindor? Nope nope nope.

Could Shohei actually do it? 8 more seasons of 8 WAR a year get him close. Shohei is my dude, but thats asking a heck of a lot.

The answer very well might've been Juan Soto if he could play defense. Sorry Juanie, your batters eye just isn't enough man.

Acuna, Tucker, Tatis? I just dont see it for any of them, much less Vlad or Yordan.

Julio, Bobby, Gunnar? Lots of crazy projection needed to get any of these baby boys to 100 but all 3 play at a premium defensive position and can hit. They have the tools, but can one of them do it? Judging by the names of really good baseball players I've already rattled off, probably not.

Best odds based on my gut:

Trout
Judge
Shohei

Trout just needs 3 or 4 years of decent production to get there. He's so close but so far. Superheroes Judge and Shohei can leap over 8-10 WAR seasons in a single bound, they just need to do it consistently until they are old. But they ARE superheroes so don't count them out.

Thoughts, BO?

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[Biohazarddfl]

Agree with your assessment. I'd say maybe Witt just based on his floor for defense and how he should keep progressing with the bat, but I wouldn't bet on anyone. Judge and Ohtani feel like they do have a shot based on work ethic and level-headedness. Cool topic

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[nowiamsad]

Hoping Mookie gets there, but that’ll depend on how his 30s go.

[johnlocke36]

Skenes could def do it if he stays healthy, assume he'll miss at least 1 season for TJ at some point but a few 8-9 WAR seaons before he turns 25 will add up pretty quickly

[livfreely]

Judge! He will get it along with the highest WAR season ever.

I don’t believe Soto has even hit his prime yet. I’d put money on him.


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[brewtown107]

Soto is the correct answer. Look at the names on the 100+ WAR list and then lie to me, telling me defense actually matters. Plenty of the names on that list were butchers on defense.

[hammertime]

Funny I was just thinking about this since someone mentioned Frank Robinson in the Soto thread. He seems like the most logical choice.

[Archangel1775]

Juan Soto unless he gets bored with baseball

[AnthonyCorona]

Cal Raleigh or Lazaro Montes

[Ewing33]

Bobby Witt Jr possibly

[SleepyWill]

Right now, the likely bet is Mookie.

Plays shortstop, hopefully next year won't have rare gastro issues that have him drop 20LBs to start the year.

Judge is 33 and not likely to continue mashing the way that he has. People also tend to forget that big bodies don't age well.

[Twalk1975]

If we get a shortened season in 2027, I think that's really going to hurt the guys already in their 30's. Soto might have the best chance of anybody currently playing.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

If we get a shortened season in 2027, I think that's really going to hurt the guys already in their 30's. Soto might have the best chance of anybody currently playing.

This will devastate baseball and especially a lot of resumes. Most of these folks will have covid and a strike shortened season. Brutal

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[base set]

Every RC in the 2026 Series One $400 jumbos will achieve this.

[Twalk1975]

We may see expansion teams at some point. I'm guessing that might also help the upper tier of the younger guys?

[Bosoxfan5990]

Emil Morales.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Juan Soto unless he gets bored with baseball

If he averages 4 WAR the entire contract he will be right around 100, but I think he really needs a few more 8 WAR seasons as those last years he could be negative like Miggy.

[towerymt]

J-Rod.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by JRX

If he averages 4 WAR the entire contract he will be right around 100, but I think he really needs a few more 8 WAR seasons as those last years he could be negative like Miggy.

It would be difficult to bet against him with where he is at being only 26. I'd have said Acuna too but he seems to always be injured.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

This will devastate baseball and especially a lot of resumes. Most of these folks will have covid and a strike shortened season. Brutal

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What will a lockout/strike do to baseball card values? We haven't had a significant work stoppage since the '94 strike.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

What will a lockout/strike do to baseball card values? We haven't had a significant work stoppage since the '94 strike.

It’s another roadblock for guys trying to reach major milestones. A lot of them will have already lost games due to the covid stoppage. Freeman and Altuve going for 3,000 hits come to mind. Giancarlo will need every at-bat possible to try and drag his corpse to 500 HRs. There are others too. Missing out on those milestones could impact card values.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

It would be difficult to bet against him with where he is at being only 26. I'd have said Acuna too but he seems to always be injured.

Actually it would be easy since getting to 100 WAR is really really hard. He has to basically never drop off oh and never get hurt.

[Raleigh504]

The excuse with a short COVID season and a possible short season due to strike is crazy. How many of those guys had to enlist in actual WAR and still put up those numbers (some in the prime of their career). The biggest thing to is just accumulating years of playing.

Yes once expansion occurs it will lift a lot of these guys WARs up since you will have 2 AAA teams up in the majors for some time until the talent can adjust to that level.

My guess is Soto or Acuna but I doubt a pitcher in the modern era will get it unless they go into their 40s and still effective.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by JRX

Actually it would be easy since getting to 100 WAR is really really hard. He has to basically never drop off oh and never get hurt.

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

The excuse with a short COVID season and a possible short season due to strike is crazy. How many of those guys had to enlist in actual WAR and still put up those numbers (some in the prime of their career). The biggest thing to is just accumulating years of playing.

Yes once expansion occurs it will lift a lot of these guys WARs up since you will have 2 AAA teams up in the majors for some time until the talent can adjust to that level.

My guess is Soto or Acuna but I doubt a pitcher in the modern era will get it unless they go into their 40s and still effective.

In general, it will be extremely hard for any modern player to accumulate 100+ WAR since it was just inherently easier for superstars of the early 1900’s to distance themselves from the common everyday player back then.

From Wikipedia:

Bill James states that there is a bias favoring players from earlier eras because there was greater variance in skill levels at the time, so "the best players were further from the average than they are now".[2] That is, in modern baseball, it is more difficult for a player to exceed the abilities of his peers than it was in the 1800s and the dead-ball and live-ball eras of the 1900s.

[JRX]

Also depends on which War you're using. Fangraphs has only 20 batters over 100 last 2 were Bonds and Arod so use steroids I guess.