Gunnar Henderson

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

He’s been about as 180 degree turn as any player from last season to this.

What happened?

Pretty much the entire Orioles MLB team has been covered in a layer of suck this season.
That being said, Gunnar's just 1 2-week hot stretch away from being right where he was last season, minus a few dingers.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

What are you talking about? His average and OBP are both actually up from last season. OPS+ is only 10 points lower. And he's done that without a real hot streak, which he'll certainly have at some point if he stays healthy.

He's gotten unlucky in general - lots of hard hit contact all season and a few fly balls that could have been home runs hitting near the tops of walls. It's completely normal variance.

He's chased more this season to his detriment, but that's something he can adjust. He also started the season slow after missing a month (a few weeks of spring training and one week of the season) with an oblique injury.

I love players like Gunnar and Bobby Witt Jr. who can still be productive when they're getting unlucky or scuffling a bit.

From the hobby perspective, nobody at shows asks for his cards and prices are down from his hobby run last season.

A case of unrealistic expectations?

[DRey226]

Love seeing the Gunnar thread pop back up. Posting some of my collection in hopes he gets hot.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Pretty much the entire Orioles MLB team has been covered in a layer of suck this season.
That being said, Gunnar's just 1 2-week hot stretch away from being right where he was last season, minus a few dingers.

That’s a good point.

Big things were expected from the orange team this year.

They could be an offensive juggernaut if all the hitters clicked at once.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

From the hobby perspective, nobody at shows asks for his cards and prices are down from his hobby run last season.

A case of unrealistic expectations?

He’s still way overpriced in my opinion. It’s not particularly fun to collect him because his on-field production doesn’t seem to line up with what sellers are asking for. A lot of it based on how much WAR he’s accrued for someone who just turned 24, which is true, but again, not compelling.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

He’s still way overpriced in my opinion. It’s not particularly fun to collect him because his on-field production doesn’t seem to line up with what sellers are asking for. A lot of it based on how much WAR he’s accrued for someone who just turned 24, which is true, but again, not compelling.

Yeah, his hr totals thus far, which probably moves cards hobby wise more than anything, like Bobby’s, just aren’t sexy enough this season.

[DRey226]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Yeah, his hr totals thus far, which probably moves cards hobby wise more than anything, like Bobby’s, just aren’t sexy enough this season.

Cal has the most HR all-time from shortstop position, 345. Not out of the realm of possibility that Gunnar passes that number. Although, I would venture a move to 3B before that is more likely. Still an interesting chase to watch.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by DRey226

Cal has the most HR all-time from shortstop position, 345. Not out of the realm of possibility that Gunnar passes that number. Although, I would venture a move to 3B before that is more likely. Still an interesting chase to watch.

We’ve really been spoiled by power expectations at that position in recent years.

Gunnar may stay under the radar hobby wise until he gets close to that career mark.

[seanrs1]

At this point if you don't produce like Ohtani or Judge the hobby will pass you by. Seems like if you are not putting up MVP numbers year in and out then card prices will go down. No one seems to care about 6 WAR seasons anymore. If you don't put up at least 8 WAR+ you are now a hobby failure.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We’ve really been spoiled by power expectations at that position in recent years.

Gunnar may stay under the radar hobby wise until he gets close to that career mark.

Maybe Gunnar will take a Manny Machado-esque career track in most people acknowledge he's good, but he sorta flies under the radar every year eclipsed by the megastars.

Then one day he's closing in on a huge benchmark (500 HR in Manny's case) or possibly the SS HR record for Gunnar, and you're like "Oh wait, this guy actually is really freaking good!".

[Skipscards]

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We’ve really been spoiled by power expectations at that position in recent years.

Gunnar may stay under the radar hobby wise until he gets close to that career mark.

Under the radar? I just thought about maybe adding a Stadium Club auto to my Gunnar collection and was stunned by the asking prices. I don’t see him a value play. But maybe I’m just too used to collecting bums like Jazz, CJ, and Riley Greene to have a good gauge. Bobby was dirt cheap too while everyone was chasing Wander and Julio.

[DRey226]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

We’ve really been spoiled by power expectations at that position in recent years.

Gunnar may stay under the radar hobby wise until he gets close to that career mark.

Good point. I am sure somewhere in the annals of Blowout forum history, someone made a similar point about Hanley Ramirez. Long way to go for Gunnar.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Maybe Gunnar will take a Manny Machado-esque career track in most people acknowledge he's good, but he sorta flies under the radar every year eclipsed by the megastars.

Then one day he's closing in on a huge benchmark (500 HR in Manny's case) or possibly the SS HR record for Gunnar, and you're like "Oh wait, this guy actually is really freaking good!".

That’s what I see will happen.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

Under the radar? I just thought about maybe adding a Stadium Club auto to my Gunnar collection and was stunned by the asking prices. I don’t see him a value play. But maybe I’m just too used to collecting bums like Jazz, CJ, and Riley Greene to have a good gauge. Bobby was dirt cheap too while everyone was chasing Wander and Julio.

Seriously though, I haven’t heard a single person ask for any of his cards at a show or shop in a long time.

Ask any shop owner if they’ve sold a Gunnar card recently.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by seanrs1

At this point if you don't produce like Ohtani or Judge the hobby will pass you by. Seems like if you are not putting up MVP numbers year in and out then card prices will go down. No one seems to care about 6 WAR seasons anymore. If you don't put up at least 8 WAR+ you are now a hobby failure.

He’s just not sexy enough.

But it works out great if you are a collector.

You will get deals at shows for his stuff.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Seriously though, I haven’t heard a single person ask for any of his cards at a show or shop in a long time.

Ask any shop owner if they’ve sold a Gunnar card recently.

I bought a couple from my LCS the other day.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

From the hobby perspective, nobody at shows asks for his cards and prices are down from his hobby run last season.

A case of unrealistic expectations?

I wouldn't say unrealistic, but simply from a home run standpoint, he hasn't met expectations. Which as we all know causes prices to dip. If he has a July with 8-12 home runs, you'll see a lot more people asking for him.

Part of it is also that people are sheep. If they don't see the home runs, they don't care. But home runs are king in the hobby either way.

That's fine with me, I've been buying the dip and I'm confident that the home runs will come. And if they don't, that's fine, too. He's my favorite current player and I like buying his stuff at current prices.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

I bought a couple from my LCS the other day.

And the shop owner will deny it!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

I wouldn't say unrealistic, but simply from a home run standpoint, he hasn't met expectations. Which as we all know causes prices to dip. If he has a July with 8-12 home runs, you'll see a lot more people asking for him.

Part of it is also that people are sheep. If they don't see the home runs, they don't care. But home runs are king in the hobby either way.

That's fine with me, I've been buying the dip and I'm confident that the home runs will come. And if they don't, that's fine, too. He's my favorite current player and I like buying his stuff at current prices.

I just hope he doesn’t end up following the arenado/goldschmidt hobby trajectory. They hit bombs but are still considered lower tier guys.

Perhaps the decline of Adley will help Gunnar’s stardom. There can only be one hobby alpha male per team but the Orioles have many front runners.

I suppose it also matters how Jackson Holliday’s hobby trajectory develops.

[BoSoxFan1999]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

I wouldn't say unrealistic, but simply from a home run standpoint, he hasn't met expectations. Which as we all know causes prices to dip. If he has a July with 8-12 home runs, you'll see a lot more people asking for him.

Part of it is also that people are sheep. If they don't see the home runs, they don't care. But home runs are king in the hobby either way.

That's fine with me, I've been buying the dip and I'm confident that the home runs will come. And if they don't, that's fine, too. He's my favorite current player and I like buying his stuff at current prices.

Plus if you bake into his prices the very real possibility he eventually become a future Yankee or Dodger (since the Orioles simply refuse to hand out multi-year contracts to anyone not named Tyler O'Neil lol), that makes his current prices even more reasonable.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Plus if you bake into his prices the very real possibility he eventually become a future Yankee or Dodger (since the Orioles simply refuse to hand out multi-year contracts to anyone not named Tyler O'Neil lol), that makes his current prices even more reasonable.

A player’s hobby presence in recent years shouldn’t have to depend on a jersey change, does it?

It didn’t help Juan Soto much.

[Imnottheonly]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Seriously though, I haven’t heard a single person ask for any of his cards at a show or shop in a long time.

Ask any shop owner if they’ve sold a Gunnar card recently.

Thinking categorically there are three types of players that suck up most hobby attention:

- Hobby Darlings- Shohei, Judge, then maybe your Witt, Soto, Acuna tier of Players who’ve got big fan and collector bases that provide a floor to their prices and who other collectors want to pick up.

-Rookies- self explanatory, trying to catch the train on the ride up hoping to get these guys before they jump into the hobby darling tier

- Breakouts- Players in there second season or later having a statistical breakout, this year it’s Cal Raleigh & PCA. This was the group the Gunnar was in early last season. Players who are playing well above expectations that look like they could break into the darling tier.

Outside of those groups you get lost in the shuffle. Gunnar had a quiet second half last year and slower start this year and the entire Orioles team has underperformed so he didn’t jump into the darling tier and his market is stagnating accordingly. But he’s young, underlying metrics are still sound and he could easily jump back into a breakout tier next year again when expectations are lower.

More concerned with the fact the Orioles player development seems to be shitting the bed on the MLB jump with a lot of the prospects…

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Imnottheonly

Thinking categorically there are three types of players that suck up most hobby attention:

- Hobby Darlings- Shohei, Judge, then maybe your Witt, Soto, Acuna tier of Players who’ve got big fan and collector bases that provide a floor to their prices and who other collectors want to pick up.

-Rookies- self explanatory, trying to catch the train on the ride up hoping to get these guys before they jump into the hobby darling tier

- Breakouts- Players in there second season or later having a statistical breakout, this year it’s Cal Raleigh & PCA. This was the group the Gunnar was in early last season. Players who are playing well above expectations that look like they could break into the darling tier.

Outside of those groups you get lost in the shuffle. Gunnar had a quiet second half last year and slower start this year and the entire Orioles team has underperformed so he didn’t jump into the darling tier and his market is stagnating accordingly. But he’s young, underlying metrics are still sound and he could easily jump back into a breakout tier next year again when expectations are lower.

More concerned with the fact the Orioles player development seems to be shitting the bed on the MLB jump with a lot of the prospects…

Is it too late to jump to the darling tier by the fourth/fifth year?

Does a post-post-hype phenomenon really exist?

This hobby moves awfully fast and has the shortest attention span.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

He’s just not sexy enough.

But it works out great if you are a collector.

You will get deals at shows for his stuff.

I disagree strongly there. The "sexiness" factor is what gives Gunnar more upside than a lot of other players 1-3 years into their MLB careers. And there aren't many players that are in Gunnar's WAR tier to begin with. It's really only guys (25 years and younger) like Gunnar, Witt, Carroll, Elly, JRod, PCA, Wood who play premium defensive positions with 30+ home run power that can accumulate 5-10 WAR a season.

Gunnar has a lot of power, he's fast, and he plays the game hard. Good-looking kid too. He's not very extroverted or talkative, but that's not going to hurt how people perceive him as a player.

But the sexiness thing is one of the reasons to like him. For me, Gunnar, Bobby, and Elly are the future faces of baseball after Ohtani and Judge slow down. Gunnar might wind up being #3 of that group of shortstops, but all 3 are electric players. They ARE sexy.