📈Is the correction over? What cards look attractive with an upside potential?📈

[gomiamigo]

Hell, just buying Optic Megas of the Luka class - which you could get on sale after the following season began! - you could have made 10-20x your money just flipping them.

Could have bought them online by the case as well.

Those days are long gone I suspect.

[gomiamigo]

True collectors care about price, rarity, and for lack of a better term, some level of 'grail-ness' or maybe that's just desirability.

I bot a KDurant rookie TC white/99 in mint last year. That card will always be in demand, for several reasons, but it's not like anyone says 'price doesn't matter' when they buy it.

I'm happy to own it forever, but I strongly suspect in 10 years it will have at least doubled, maybe more [same for his Exquisites in 8.5/9 and up]. When Seattle gets an NBA team again, I also think his rookies in Sonics unis will go up strongly. We'll see.

[Nomad]

Dang, that's a $8,499.99 card. Would you look at that.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

True collectors care about price, rarity, and for lack of a better term, some level of 'grail-ness' or maybe that's just desirability.

I bot a KDurant rookie TC white/99 in mint last year. That card will always be in demand, for several reasons, but it's not like anyone says 'price doesn't matter' when they buy it.

I'm happy to own it forever, but I strongly suspect in 10 years it will have at least doubled, maybe more [same for his Exquisites in 8.5/9 and up]. When Seattle gets an NBA team again, I also think his rookies in Sonics unis will go up strongly. We'll see.

Yea sure as the value of your USD has halved

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

You're not 100% wrong in the fact that it's no longer about buying wax, ripping, grading, and immediately selling for 4x what you paid, or getting out in front of the right rookie QB or basketball superstar and having any sort of good chance that they 5x during the season (a lot of this is because of the new late release schedules, though), but here's how I've seen the ability to profit morph:

The game is now about having connections, knowing people, and identifying who are weak hands looking to sell and who are strong hands willing to pay. From there it's about finding cards of top level players that are almost to find and are being offered by sellers who are either interested in just getting a quick buck, or just are looking to get out of the card ahead. From there it's about knowing the big money PC buyers who are willing to pay more for it than what you have in it.

This is the method that still works. It's not easy and sometimes you go a long time without finding any moves to make... but when it works I can pay off big.

If you can do this, great but 99% of people can't and you can't scale this or do it with any consistency.

If you're flush with cash and can swoop in to get dirt cheap deals from people who need the money...

[Retired hobbist]

The economy in Canada is clearly tumbling into a recession and the US will show similar markers to indicated the same economic situation.

Housing sales are abysmal and new starts aren't happening and condos are being converted into rentals which are safer bets in tight housing markets but it slowly drops rental values.

So what does that mean for non essential items such as trading cards?

See the tanking of the card market in the mid 90's...

[Nomad]

I think that's what one of those sports card bloggers said recently. Knowing how high Ja was and how desperate some are to get off positions, they just buy $1700 mojo Prizm rookies all day. Those can almost not help rising. as nostalgia is a thing eventually.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by eastbayak

Can't forget about Bol Bol, Kyle Guy and THT.

Great times.

Bol Bol you could like punch yourself in the eye and maybe see how he could be a hobby hit but THT was probably the dumbest hype of all time.

There's an 11 page thread about a guy who's averaged 9ppg over his career. Mind blowing

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1430641

[Nomad]

I am just going to freely quote this. People knew even then.

Originally Posted by abidtsteele

Had a big preseason game. Lebron hyped him.

Thats all it takes these days (he was very solid in G league last year fwiw)

Originally Posted by jcardstore

All he needs to do is to keep having greater than prime LeBron/MJ usage rates to average 20ppg. Seems pretty realistic

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If you can do this, great but 99% of people can't and you can't scale this or A. do it with any consistency.

B. If you're flush with cash and can swoop in to get dirt cheap deals from people who need the money...

A. I'd say I've been doing in consistently for 7 years. What's changed is that while it used to be about finding deals on COMC, winning forgotten about auctions or BINs on eBay, or spending $150 on wax at Target, it's now about keeping my eyes open for opportunities that come just a few times a year and watching 1 or 2 of them turn into absolute grand slams.

B. And yes, the way you do this is to have cash ready for the next opportunity. The way you have cash ready for the next opportunity is to not blow all your money after you make a sale, and have a few hard to find cards ready to sell whenever you need to.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Retired hobbist

The economy in Canada is clearly tumbling into a recession and the US will show similar markers to indicated the same economic situation.

Housing sales are abysmal and new starts aren't happening and condos are being converted into rentals which are safer bets in tight housing markets but it slowly drops rental values.

So what does that mean for non essential items such as trading cards?

See the tanking of the card market in the mid 90's...

Have you seen what prices of top 90s cards are these days?

[Nomad]

Originally Posted by tjforce

A. it used to be about finding deals on COMC, winning forgotten about auctions or BINs on eBay... it's now about keeping my eyes open for opportunities that come just a few times a year and watching 1 or 2 of them turn into absolute grand slams.

So basically you're saying you could have taken an approach now relegated to marginal players like Nesmith, with stars like LeBron or Curry. Cause I do still recognize this playbook.

[Retired hobbist]

Yes it's higher but the new tank will be new flat price of various cards. Housing is similar sellers in my neighborhood are asking for prices from last year.

Good luck in selling homes at those inflated prices, cards will be similar...

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

A. I'd say I've been doing in consistently for 7 years. What's changed is that while it used to be about finding deals on COMC, winning forgotten about auctions or BINs on eBay, or spending $150 on wax at Target, it's now about keeping my eyes open for opportunities that come just a few times a year and watching 1 or 2 of them turn into absolute grand slams.

B. And yes, the way you do this is to have cash ready for the next opportunity. The way you have cash ready for the next opportunity is to not blow all your money after you make a sale, and have a few hard to find cards ready to sell whenever you need to.

Throw out any comparison of pre and post covid prices.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to hit a couple grand slams every couple of years but it’s significantly less than it was the year before and the year before that and it’s only going in 1 direction.

It’s not really different than real estate. It’s something that people claim is easy and there are so many opportunities when the reality is: most people lost money and there are very few real deals to be had. Not to mention all the paper gains guys.

Yea every gain looks great on paper until you go to sell and realize it’s actually totally illiquid and you can’t actually sell it for what you think

If you can do it with consistency, awesome. I’m not saying you can or can’t I’m saying the 99% person absolutely cannot do that

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Nomad

So basically you're saying you could have taken an approach now relegated to marginal players like Nesmith, with stars like LeBron or Curry. Cause I do still recognize this playbook.

Maybe. Some thing's that come to mind:

-COMC seller prices a raw 2009 Topps Chrome LeBron /999 like any other Topps Chrome from that era... it grades out a 9.

-Noticing that Galactics are skyrocketing and getting a LeBron while people just begin catching on

-Paying $100 for a gem mint 2016 Optic Preview LeBron ($50 for Curry) because most people haven no idea how rare they are.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Throw out any comparison of pre and post covid prices.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to hit a couple grand slams every couple of years but it’s significantly less than it was the year before and the year before that and it’s only going in 1 direction.

It’s not really different than real estate. It’s something that people claim is easy and there are so many opportunities when the reality is: most people lost money and there are very few real deals to be had. Not to mention all the paper gains guys.

Yea every gain looks great on paper until you go to sell and realize it’s actually totally illiquid and you can’t actually sell it for what you think

If you can do it with consistency, awesome. I’m not saying you can or can’t I’m saying the 99% person absolutely cannot do that

I think it's pretty fair if we agree that it takes some level of expertise to be able to profit 10's or 100's of thousands in sports cards.... as it should

[WaiverWire]

Real estate flippers in 2009 - will all tell you it’s bad luck. Card flippers who bought pre covid and sold post covid - will tell you it’s all skill, baby. Reality is it’s somewhere in between, with a huge luck component.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I think it's pretty fair if we agree that it takes some level of expertise to be able to profit 10's or 100's of thousands in sports cards.... as it should

Expertise AND more importantly a significant amount of liquid capital you can deploy at any time.

You can be an expert all you want but if you don't have the cash it won't matter

[Blazed]

Another big consignment seller

This is why I stick to BIN's or COMC's eBay auctions

Almost every single high dollar card on consignment is shilled to set the stage for a record price lol

Yes, it's old news but now they don't even try to hide it

[Blazed]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I think it's pretty fair if we agree that it takes some level of expertise to be able to profit 10's or 100's of thousands in sports cards.... as it should

No expertise required

Just look at what sets/what players people are collecting and out bid or snipe BIN's of rare cards

Or you can do like a few members here and look at eBay completed listings and message sellers who listed a BIN way too low and cut a deal off eBay

Threads like "what are you looking for at the National" aren't just being read by people who want to help collectors find cards, they're read by flippers too

Posts on IG saying "I need XXXXX to finish a set or looking for my PC player XXXX" make flipping easy - Turner is one of the biggest targets for flippers who know what cards he needs

Don't act like flipping is rocket science and requires expert analysis to do

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Expertise AND more importantly a significant amount of liquid capital you can deploy at any time.

You can be an expert all you want but if you don't have the cash it won't matter

If you're an expert in this then the liquid capital part isn't a problem.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

If you're an expert in this then the liquid capital part isn't a problem.

If you're not using your own capital you’re just a broker. Which is a totally different thing and I think that’s probably a much better business overall

[WaiverWire]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If you're not using your own capital you’re just a broker. Which is a totally different thing and I think that’s probably a much better business overall

And if you are a broker, you don’t actually have much skin in the game. You are just match-making and collecting a fee.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

If you're not using your own capital you’re just a broker. Which is a totally different thing and I think that’s probably a much better business overall

That's not what I'm saying at all.

If you are good at this then there is no problem having $10k, $20k, $30k, or whatever you need to buy something when it comes up, sell that, and then have more than you started with.

If you can't come up with $10k of your own then you either aren't good at this or are just starting from scratch.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by tjforce

That's not what I'm saying at all.

If you are good at this then there is no problem having $10k, $20k, $30k, or whatever you need to buy something when it comes up, sell that, and then have more than you started with.

If you can't come up with $10k of your own then you either aren't good at this or are just starting from scratch.

This is just so out of touch.

Not everyone is a multi millionaire who can just throw five figures at any card when there’s an opportunity to potentially sell it in the future.