Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

Caring about the $ and making $ should not be confused with one another

You alleged things are different now. If all you mean is people care about the market to know what to pay for the cards they want, then your point that things are different is incorrect. People have always cared what the value of cards are compared to what sellers are asking. Heck, even the investor crowd is no different than it was for the last 40+ years.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This is the correct question to ask. The people who attend card shows are not representative of the majority of participants in the hobby. The fact that people keep using card show anecdotes just tells me they aren't looking at it properly.

There's a lot of truth in this.

Many collectors (like me) live in parts of the country where shows are few and far between.

The amount of money spent buying/selling cards online likely dwarfs the amount spent at card shows.

[shawnkrebs]

I know there's the occasional tangent, but I do appreciate and would encourage those posting their card show feedback.

I find it helpful when others detail their show experiences.

[volblorx8634]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I would guess 90% of people in cards today don't care about the money. But 90% on Blowout do. There are millions of collectors out there just collecting. The investor crowd is a very visible minority.

Sincerely, where, if at all, do you interact with this segment of collectors who do not care about the money? Blowout and Instagram at least seem to reflect the opposite as you alluded to. I feel like I’ve been coming up empty looking for places to engage with collectors that care about cards and not money, so any recommendations you have would be appreciated!


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[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by shawnkrebs

I know there's the occasional tangent, but I do appreciate and would encourage those posting their card show feedback.

I find it helpful when others detail their show experiences.

I will report on Chantilly in a few days

Here are my predictions based on the last 5 years of that show:

1. Good crowds
2. People spending $
3. Dealers happy about their $1 box volume
4. There will be more “Buying 85-90%” signs
5. There will be lines for those Buying stations
6. The Ultra Pro supply guy will be busy
7. The autograph guest announcer will be loud
8. The vintage dealers will have cards from 10 shows ago
9. Pokemon will be more present
10. The YouTube crowd will have their cameras

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I would believe 75-80%

My 90% might be high

The National will undoubtedly break attendance records for the 3rd year in a row

Those new people flocking to the National post-Covid are not there to look at sets or retail products

When people complain about the WiFi, it's because they cannot get Card Ladder, VCP, and 130 Point to work because it's all about those $100 bills

I would think the National attendance is a much higher percentage of collectors vs flippers, especially vintage and rare items.

[Chicosbailbonds]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

Sincerely, where, if at all, do you interact with this segment of collectors who do not care about the money? Blowout and Instagram at least seem to reflect the opposite as you alluded to. I feel like I’ve been coming up empty looking for places to engage with collectors that care about cards and not money, so any recommendations you have would be appreciated!


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Net54 forum is more hobby vs investor.

[jmarascojr]

But what about the smells

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I will report on Chantilly in a few days

Here are my predictions based on the last 5 years of that show:

1. Good crowds
2. People spending $
3. Dealers happy about their $1 box volume
4. There will be more “Buying 85-90%” signs
5. There will be lines for those Buying stations
6. The Ultra Pro supply guy will be busy
7. The autograph guest announcer will be loud
8. The vintage dealers will have cards from 10 shows ago
9. Pokemon will be more present
10. The YouTube crowd will have their cameras

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by jmarascojr

But what about the smells

That's just a given and doesn't need to be included with any show updates.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

Went to the National, and I bought one card. I don’t have the apps you all are talking about, but I was frustrated with the lack of WiFi because PayPal wouldn’t work. I’m not carrying $5-10k around in my pocket.

For me, no internet means I can't access my inventory website. I'd like to see whether or not I already have a card.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by volblorx8634

Sincerely, where, if at all, do you interact with this segment of collectors who do not care about the money? Blowout and Instagram at least seem to reflect the opposite as you alluded to. I feel like I’ve been coming up empty looking for places to engage with collectors that care about cards and not money, so any recommendations you have would be appreciated!


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I think if you can find groups specific to whatever niche you collect it tends to be a different vibe.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Chicosbailbonds

Net54 forum is more hobby vs investor.

I disagree. I know a lot of users personally.

They are no different than most folks in cards.

A lot of big wallets with big collections that view their items as an alternative asset class all while loving the history of the sport and baseball cards.

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I disagree. I know a lot of users personally.

They are no different than most folks in cards.

A lot of big wallets with big collections that view their items as an alternative asset class all while loving the history of the sport and baseball cards.

At least they love the sport and cards… can’t say that for a lot more of the cardboard money mercenaries around here

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by Twalk1975

I think if you can find groups specific to whatever niche you collect it tends to be a different vibe.

Was going to say this. There are player-specific collecting groups on Facebook as well as era-specific groups. If you're not finding one that is tailored to what you want, it's probably fairly easy to start one up. There will still be people in those groups that make the monetary aspect a focus, but my experience has been pretty solid as far as connecting with people more focused on collecting in the groups I joined.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

So when people say the market is strong, are they implying that the volume of transactions is insane, no matter if people are making or losing money?

In the real world, more people selling at a loss versus people actually making money implies a down market, or a bear market, right?

So there may be a ton of people attending shows and getting into breaks, but if most people are losing money when they sell or get nothing in breaks, isn’t that a negative trend?

Perhaps the companies are primarily the ones making money if secondary market values for cards out of the packs continue to decline?

Originally Posted by f2tornado

The lingo isn't necessarily going to reflect the same for the S&P 500 or other index where strong gains accompanied by high volume is a strong market. Trading cards are different since not everyone is in it to make money, though, I'd venture to guess most participants hope to do so. High volume ideally with steady to rising prices is a strong card market to me. That's all the flippers need to make money. The most skilled ones can even do so in slowly falling market. More casual collectors can more easily sell and trade when volume is high even if prices in general are slipping a bit.

The danger is if a bunch of people ditch the hobby like what happened in the early to mid 90s. The products were better but there was far less money being spent. Singles prices stagnated and often fell dramatically. Shops closed. Card shows became challenging to make enough money to justify the time. The market went from an estimated $1.2 billion in 1991 to maybe $200 million twenty years later. I've read the global market was around $10 billion market in 2023 and growing at an estimated 10-13% per year. So long as that money is pouring in, the general market will be strong regardless of what certain singles prices are doing. The people with business acumen and intent on profit have multiple avenues for success.

Lots of people enjoy gardening as a hobby. Some save a little money by enjoying their own produce. Some setup stands in front of their house to sell it. Some may even get obliterated by deer or insects or a bad heatwave one season. But if you wanted to gauge the produce market, you would only look at the big farms and grocery stores.

There might very well be a ton of people selling off Zion at a loss but it matters little to the overall "business" of cards when Cooper Flagg is up next and those same people are gonna go back to the well again. The last paragraph above is paramount. People need to actually leave the hobby in order to see a market decline, AND those people need to leave at a higher rate than new entrants. Everything else is anecdotal.

[hammerva]

While I expect that 95% of the dealers at Chantilly will be the same ones as usual, I am hoping we see a few new ones. If not then hopefully the 3 dealers that I know have a good supply of wrestling cards is there and I get there before the repackers purge it

I know it won't happen but I would love to see someone try to pull a Liv Dunne or Cheslea Green and pull some choreographed sale with goofy acting in order to get clicks. But Fanatics isn't going to be there

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by hammerva

While I expect that 95% of the dealers at Chantilly will be the same ones as usual, I am hoping we see a few new ones. If not then hopefully the 3 dealers that I know have a good supply of wrestling cards is there and I get there before the repackers purge it

I know it won't happen but I would love to see someone try to pull a Liv Dunne or Cheslea Green and pull some choreographed sale with goofy acting in order to get clicks. But Fanatics isn't going to be there

I wonder if they’re going to continue to expand in the back area where the autographs used to be. That section has been slowly growing with new face in the last year. I was surprised to see the little section area on the right as soon as you walk in be filled with tables before you get to the concession area

[hammerva]

The problem with expanding the side area with more dealers is that it is currently being used for the trade nights. It is already getting too cramped on the trade nights and adding more tables will make it much worse. Also they are using that area for the 'Side signings" like that one Negro League player who has been there for what seems like 6 years straight. More dealers moves them out of the way

Maybe they can put a table or two where the SGC and CSG people would have been because it doesn't look like they will be there this show

[DylanPowers92]

I am setting up at a show for the first time at the KY Fieldhouse inaugural show this Sunday. Not sure what to expect but I am excited for it

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I would guess 90% of people in cards today don't care about the money. But 90% on Blowout do. There are millions of collectors out there just collecting. The investor crowd is a very visible minority.

I think the number of people who care about the money is closer to 100%. Even people who just collect want their collections to be worth $$$ in case they ever have to sell them.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by jkampis

I think the number of people who care about the money is closer to 100%. Even people who just collect want their collections to be worth $$$ in case they ever have to sell them.

That's not what I was referring to. Everyone wants to pay a good price, and wants things they collect to be valuable. People aren't pointing to that as some negative trend in the hobby. So that's not at all what they mean when they say the hobby has gotten full of people who just care about the money. The discussion is about those who ONLY care about the money.

[EBCollectibles]

The hobby isn't hurting. The ones that are complaining are the ones selling things at shows or wherever else trying to get 100-110% of ebay comps. The same people that have the same things over and over at shows and wondering why they don't sell anything.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

The discussion is about those who ONLY care about the money.

Believe it or not, that’s a key indicator of a blazing hot market. The bigger and hotter a market becomes the more money flows into it. The more money is available the more people will only want the money. This is true of any market. Money (and the people wanting it) wouldn’t present itself if the hobby wasn’t strong.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by EBCollectibles

The hobby isn't hurting. The ones that are complaining are the ones selling things at shows or wherever else trying to get 100-110% of ebay comps. The same people that have the same things over and over at shows and wondering why they don't sell anything.

A lot of the ones complaining don’t buy or sell anything.

[hermanotarjeta]

The money is going to Pokémon at the shows.

While the dealer I bought from was grateful for my $1000+ wax purchase at his table, he was telling me this sale which was his biggest of the weekend was nothing compared to the $22,000 cash deal he witnessed at the pokemon table just down the aisle the previous day.

It was funny he quipped “I guess I’m in the wrong business”.

People were only asking for James woods cards to flip.