Longevity of PSA

[newfiesig]

Been back in the hobby for 4 years now, and since I've been back, PSA has dominated the grading market.

From what I understand, it wasn't that long ago when people were cracking PSA slabs to send to Beckett. Coming out of the boom, and with PSA grading more than all other companies combined, do we think that PSA will remain king? Or do we think someone will replace them as the industry standard?

[mjohnatgt]

The market has already spoken.

[bub838]

BGS had their chance and fumbled the bag. PSA owns SGC. PSA has no real contenders.

[KPOD]

PSA will be king indefinitely

[discodanman45]

The biggest threat to PSA is BGS. They have the name recognition and nostalgia for people like me who used their magazines. If anyone with any business sense and pulse on the hobby took over that company, they would see huge growth. If someone like Peter from SGC was in charge over there, they would be a strong #2. However, I think TAG grading will pass them as #4 very shortly...

[ophion]

I can't see any company dethroning PSA. It sucks because I think PSA label looks ugly... but BGS has fallen behind CGC and SGC, and likely TAG in the near future.

[thenightman]

If PSA goes down, the entire grading industry goes down. That’s how much of a market share they have, and how much other companies don’t matter.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by ophion

I can't see any company dethroning PSA. It sucks because I think PSA label looks ugly... but BGS has fallen behind CGC and SGC, and likely TAG in the near future.

Yep, ugly label, but still number one with a long shot. Now that Collector's bought SGC, their growth may be stagnant or shrinking. That is like 94% of the sports card market in terms of grading. CGC has a large share of TCG but still lags behind PSA.

Originally Posted by thenightman

If PSA goes down, the entire grading industry goes down. That’s how much of a market share they have, and how much other companies don’t matter.

It is likely the other companies would go down before PSA, but your point is valid. If it got to the point where PSA is struggling, that would be an industry problem more than a PSA problem. PSA has survived every known scandal and doesn't lose a beat.

[Redbirdgrad]

PSA is the only one that can defeat PSA... and if they didn't have such a gigantic lead they would have already run themselves into the ground.

If startups did what PSA currently does, they'd go down in flames...

- whiff on their promised turnaround times, sometimes by months
- no FIFO method whatsoever, which causes unrest from their clients when they see orders in the same cost-category pass by theirs for no communicated reason
- completely obvious population control for certain cards (sometimes entire years/genres)
- customer service which is automated and unhelpful, and sometimes non-responsive at all
- a "higher than acceptable" damaging of cards from their own company during handling periods

And those are just the major ones. I know I left a lot of complaints I've read on here out.

The market has definitely spoken about what type of slab they desire though, despite the mismanagement of the company for the past decade.

[newfiesig]

Originally Posted by Redbirdgrad

PSA is the only one that can defeat PSA... and if they didn't have such a gigantic lead they would have already run themselves into the ground.

If startups did what PSA currently does, they'd go down in flames...

- whiff on their promised turnaround times, sometimes by months
- no FIFO method whatsoever, which causes unrest from their clients when they see orders in the same cost-category pass by theirs for no communicated reason
- completely obvious population control for certain cards (sometimes entire years/genres)
- customer service which is automated and unhelpful, and sometimes non-responsive at all
- a "higher than acceptable" damaging of cards from their own company during handling periods

And those are just the major ones. I know I left a lot of complaints I've read on here out.

The market has definitely spoken about what type of slab they desire though, despite the mismanagement of the company for the past decade.

Agree with all your points. I'm wondering how many of those problems seem worse than they are due to:

1. The crazy number of slabs graded each month (i.e. 0.01% would still be a lot)
2. People rarely post about good experiences, only the bad

I know they messed up an oder by me a couple of years ago, but they quickly fixed it by providing arguably .ore credit than the issues were worth.

Interesting that everyone thinks they are locked in, but also good to know.

[Cracktoast]

I do see a point and we may already be seeing signs where people slow down subs because anything less than a 10 is a loss money wise. Let the breakers and degenerates take the risk with grading. That said the secondary market for PSA 10's will increase significantly as a result. But your average blue collar collector can't sustain losing $15 on every non 10 they get back. The grading sector of the hobby is being propped up by TCG and when that crowd gets bored and moves on to something else the grading industry is going to take a huge hit IMO.

[newfiesig]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

I do see a point and we may already be seeing signs where people slow down subs because anything less than a 10 is a loss money wise. Let the breakers and degenerates take the risk with grading. That said the secondary market for PSA 10's will increase significantly as a result. But your average blue collar collector can't sustain losing $15 on every non 10 they get back. The grading sector of the hobby is being propped up by TCG and when that crowd gets bored and moves on to something else the grading industry is going to take a huge hit IMO.

Yea, it's hard to say. As you mentioned, less 10s will mean 10s will be worth more. The industry (especially today) is largely based around gambling (breaks, etc.), so I don't see the distribution of 10s being a game changer.

Also, PSA has become synonymous with grading, like how we often call tissues "Kleenex" and mac & cheese "Kraft Dinner". I know that a graded card feels less "official" to me when it's not in a PSA slab. If someone says they have a particular card "in a 9", we often assume they mean PSA 9; if it was a different company, they would have mentioned it.

For me, if a card is worth holding in my limited PC (300 cards, max), it deserves to be slabbed. Also helps sell when I choose to drop a card to add a other one.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by Cracktoast

I do see a point and we may already be seeing signs where people slow down subs because anything less than a 10 is a loss money wise. Let the breakers and degenerates take the risk with grading. That said the secondary market for PSA 10's will increase significantly as a result. But your average blue collar collector can't sustain losing $15 on every non 10 they get back. The grading sector of the hobby is being propped up by TCG and when that crowd gets bored and moves on to something else the grading industry is going to take a huge hit IMO.

People have been saying that grading is going to take a hit for about 3 years now, and they've all been wrong. I think you're wrong that grading will take a hit if TCG slows down.

I think the TCG explosion is simply a nuisance for sports card collectors grading their cards because TCG is the #1 reason for the most recent slowdown at PSA. I do think sports submissions at PSA are going to continue to slow down due to the incredibly slow turnaround times and lower gem rates, but IF TCG ever slows down over the next year or two (I think it inevitably will, but I'm also open to the possibility it doesn't slow down very much), sports submitters will simply increase the amount of cards they send in as soon as turnaround times improve.

I also think PSA will adjust back in the other direction after becoming more harsh on their gem rates and ultimately relax their grading standards a little from where they are now. As with everything in grading, there will be a lag with all of this, but I think it's inevitable.

[MFaulkCollector]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

People have been saying that grading is going to take a hit for about 3 years now, and they've all been wrong. I think you're wrong that grading will take a hit if TCG slows down.

I think the TCG explosion is simply a nuisance for sports card collectors grading their cards because TCG is the #1 reason for the most recent slowdown at PSA. I do think sports submissions at PSA are going to continue to slow down due to the incredibly slow turnaround times and lower gem rates, but IF TCG ever slows down over the next year or two (I think it inevitably will, but I'm also open to the possibility it doesn't slow down very much), sports submitters will simply increase the amount of cards they send in as soon as turnaround times improve.

I also think PSA will adjust back in the other direction after becoming more harsh on their gem rates and ultimately relax their grading standards a little from where they are now. As with everything in grading, there will be a lag with all of this, but I think it's inevitable.

Everyone who posts in the grading section or complains about PSA in general should print/frame this reply and read it over once every morning. I've submitted for 11 years at this point and every word spoken here is truth

[Redbirdgrad]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

I also think PSA will adjust back in the other direction after becoming more harsh on their gem rates and ultimately relax their grading standards a little from where they are now.

Based on what evidence? If a slowdown in TCG means an increase in sports card submissions, they have the same amount of cardboard coming through the door, so it doesn't matter what grades they hand out, the fools will continue to submit hoping their base 2025 prizm will 10 so they can make $15.

The issue here is exactly what you wrote. It's so subjective that a 10 in 2025 isn't a 10 from 2019 which isn't a 10 from 2008. Because they can control their % of 10's generally given their grading direction and standards, there's little objectivity left. Look at all of the submissions coming back getting absolutely hammered from users who didn't show up post-covid and have a historically solid track record when pre-grading.

At the end of the day, you have a for-profit company with very little regulatory requirements hiring barely over minimum wage hourly workers and expecting consistency. They're too big for their britches currently, and they have no idea how to handle their overall market success. Well, they do as they're continuing to make money hand over fist, but unless they fix things internally all they're doing is driving resentment from the hobby.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by Redbirdgrad

Based on what evidence? If a slowdown in TCG means an increase in sports card submissions, they have the same amount of cardboard coming through the door, so it doesn't matter what grades they hand out, the fools will continue to submit hoping their base 2025 prizm will 10 so they can make $15.

The issue here is exactly what you wrote. It's so subjective that a 10 in 2025 isn't a 10 from 2019 which isn't a 10 from 2008. Because they can control their % of 10's generally given their grading direction and standards, there's little objectivity left. Look at all of the submissions coming back getting absolutely hammered from users who didn't show up post-covid and have a historically solid track record when pre-grading.

At the end of the day, you have a for-profit company with very little regulatory requirements hiring barely over minimum wage hourly workers and expecting consistency. They're too big for their britches currently, and they have no idea how to handle their overall market success. Well, they do as they're continuing to make money hand over fist, but unless they fix things internally all they're doing is driving resentment from the hobby.

Agreed, I feel PSA has always ebbed and flowed with their grading based on how many cards are coming in. The grading standards have tightened in general across all TPGs in ultra modern. My guess is that printing standards are better in general and if using the "traditional" standards, there would be way to many 10s. The point of grading ultra modern is to create more artificial scarcity in the cards. Too many 10's waters down that scarcity. So now we nitpick even more on centering, print lines, touched corners, etc.

Some of this is our own fault as collectors. The thousands of posts on why this shouldn't be a 10 because it isn't perfect. Or the extra money we are willing to pay for a ultra modern 10. Full well knowing, it is coin flip between a 9 and a 10.

[LOTG1968]

Originally Posted by newfiesig

Been back in the hobby for 4 years now, and since I've been back, PSA has dominated the grading market.

From what I understand, it wasn't that long ago when people were cracking PSA slabs to send to Beckett. Coming out of the boom, and with PSA grading more than all other companies combined, do we think that PSA will remain king? Or do we think someone will replace them as the industry standard?

Depends on you definition of "long". From 2004 - approx 2010 Beckett and PSA were neck in neck and at times flipped flopped leader positions. Then Beckett made a ton of bonehead mistakes. Its 15-20 years since they perception among collectors that was at least equal to PSA. "long time" again that depends on definition of long.

Beckett only has themselves to blame for stupid ideas such as "collectors club grading" that had very low standards and tainted them in the minds of most collectors.

Now Beckett is in Third place. Dwarfed by PSA and trailing SGC by more and more each day. The only reason CGC is not in third is recent Pokeman scandal with pending lawsuits has caused TCG submissions there to plummet since late Feb and tainted in general any TCG in a CGC slab. Expect to hear much more about this end of year

[LOTG1968]

Originally Posted by Redbirdgrad

Based on what evidence? If a slowdown in TCG means an increase in sports card submissions, they have the same amount of cardboard coming through the door, so it doesn't matter what grades they hand out, the fools will continue to submit hoping their base 2025 prizm will 10 so they can make $15.

The issue here is exactly what you wrote. It's so subjective that a 10 in 2025 isn't a 10 from 2019 which isn't a 10 from 2008. Because they can control their % of 10's generally given their grading direction and standards, there's little objectivity left. Look at all of the submissions coming back getting absolutely hammered from users who didn't show up post-covid and have a historically solid track record when pre-grading.

At the end of the day, you have a for-profit company with very little regulatory requirements hiring barely over minimum wage hourly workers and expecting consistency. They're too big for their britches currently, and they have no idea how to handle their overall market success. Well, they do as they're continuing to make money hand over fist, but unless they fix things internally all they're doing is driving resentment from the hobby.

PSA most certainly grades to the census pop percentage with highest grades reserved for 4 Sharp Corners and other large interest. Meaning the grade depends on the submitter not the card. Yet PSA market share's geometric increase continues unabated.

Is what it is...

P.S. Since CGC messed up gigantically with Pokeman and the just getting off the ground massive lawsuit, PSA is receiving nearly all that TCG business - to the point that have been hiring and hiring in NJ where they grade most of those TCG's.

PSA may eventually be dethroned but could take 20,25,30 years for that to even begin.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by LOTG1968

Now Beckett is firmly in Third place. Dwarfed by PSA and trailing SGC by more and more each day.

Need to fix this!

Now Beckett is firmly in fourth place. Dwarfed by PSA and trailing SGC and CGC by more and more each day.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by LOTG1968

Now Beckett is in Third place. Dwarfed by PSA and trailing SGC by more and more each day. The only reason CGC is not in third is recent Pokeman scandal with pending lawsuits has caused TCG submissions there to plummet since late Feb and tainted in general any TCG in a CGC slab. Expect to hear much more about this end of year

If I remember the gemrate numbers for the past two months. CGC's TCG numbers have been up for both April and March. We do know a chunk of those are going into Pokemon retail repacks. I saw some at my local Meijer this weekend. It doesn't look like any lawsuits have impacted their monthly numbers yet. We will get May data in another week.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

If I remember the gemrate numbers for the past two months. CGC's TCG numbers have been up for both April and March. We do know a chunk of those are going into Pokemon retail repacks. I saw some at my local Meijer this weekend. It doesn't look like any lawsuits have impacted their monthly numbers yet. We will get May data in another week.

CGC will be over 500,000 cards graded this month. They had the 180,000 pop report addition due to some type of partnership drop in early May. They are also now grading right at 100,000 cards per week right now.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

CGC will be over 500,000 cards graded this month. They had the 180,000 pop report addition due to some type of partnership drop in early May. They are also now grading right at 100,000 cards per month right now.

Do you mean 100K per week?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

Do you mean 100K per week?

Yup, was only on my second cup of coffee. I changed it.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Yup, was only on my second cup of coffee. I changed it.

Figured. ha ha. I am still torn between SGC and CGC.

SGC: I have a ton of already SGC slabs, so switching seems like a big process. Looks great for vintage. More respected in sports cards side. I very rarely see any CGC youtube reveals that aren't pokemon. Turn around is normally really good. But, SGC holders are less protective. Some modern stuff doesn't look that great. Not a fan of the auto grade on the top. Dark cloud of Collectors Group over them. I have worked in corporate world for 25 years and been on both sides of buyouts. The buying company almost always absorbs the other and the other one disappears.

CGC: Holders are rock solid. Cheaper especially with membership. JSA authentication (have a sub in now). Like their auto grades better. Better holders for modern stuff. Thicker cards I think work better as well. Registry to keep track of cards. But, nearly non existent in sports cards. Disappointing "slabs" for tallboys.

I could do SGC for Vintage - up to 99. CGC for all modern, autos, patch cards. etc. Not sure if the ocd will kill me.

[Snowcat]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

CGC will be over 500,000 cards graded this month. They had the 180,000 pop report addition due to some type of partnership drop in early May. They are also now grading right at 100,000 cards per week right now.

Mystery Gems repack for retail