Hall of Famers We Are Watching in 2020

[49ersSF]

de Grom is 37 years old with only 1418 innings pitched in his career. Guidrey retired at 37 with 2392 innings pitched. Saberhagen also retired at 37 with 2562 innings pitched.

de Groms career is nearly half the innings pitched than two pitchers who did not make the hall because they didn't have enough career innings pitched to justify entry.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I chose fip because I think it's the best stat to compare pitchers. What would you use? Why is that such a tough question?

Further, are you serious with this list? Pull out the juicers and what are you left with? You honestly could look someone in the eye and say that Saberhagen is on a level with Degrom? Eric Davis had one season, what are we even talking about??? Mattingly faded, unfortunately. Jake did not fade. He has always been a completely dominant force and must-watch through age 37.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

John’s list below is much better.

And yes, I’m serious with the list. All of those guys (and a bunch more) had HOF seasons but short careers. And none of them were juicers to my knowledge. These are guys who fit the classic high peak, but are out of the Hall because they don’t have the quantity the voters want.

Originally Posted by johnlocke36

there are lots of other good stats (modern starters only)

ERA: Degrom will be 1st all time soon (most likely)
ERA+: DeGrom is 1st all time
WHIP: DeGrom is 1st all time
K/9: Top 5 all time
K/BB ratiop: DeGrom is 1st all time
WAR/inning DeGrom is 1st all time

But we are comparing him to Ron Guidry and Brett Saberhagen

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

John’s list below is much better.



And yes, I’m serious with the list. All of those guys (and a bunch more) had HOF seasons but short careers. And none of them were juicers to my knowledge. These are guys who fit the classic high peak, but are out of the Hall because they don’t have the quantity the voters want.

I asked you. I know John is on point

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

de Grom is 37 years old with only 1418 innings pitched in his career. Guidrey retired at 37 with 2392 innings pitched. Saberhagen also retired at 37 with 2562 innings pitched.

de Groms career is nearly half the innings pitched than two pitchers who did not make the hall because they didn't have enough career innings pitched to justify entry.

I don't think that their problem was not enough innings. All due respect, they aren't even in the same solar system as Degrom

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[49ersSF]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I don't think that their problem was not enough innings. All due respect, they aren't even in the same solar system as Degrom

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

Guidry went 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA in 1978. He won the Cy Young. He led his team to a WS win. He was 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in the playoffs. Jacob de Grom never came close to that sort of a season as a pitcher.

Guidry's first 4 seasons he was 76-28 with a 2.67 ERA. Jacob de Grom's entire career he's got just 88 wins.

de Grom was great when he was healthy and able to pitch, but a large part of having a successful MLB career is actually being on the field and playing the game.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Guidry went 25-3 with a 1.74 ERA in 1978. He won the Cy Young. He led his team to a WS win. He was 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in the playoffs. Jacob de Grom never came close to that sort of a season as a pitcher.



Guidry's first 4 seasons he was 76-28 with a 2.67 ERA. Jacob de Grom's entire career he's got just 88 wins.



de Grom was great when he was healthy and able to pitch, but a large part of having a successful MLB career is actually being on the field and playing the game.

Degrom's 2018 and Guidrys 78 season by all measures of being able to compare across generations are virtually equivalent. Want to keep going? Pick his next best season, please. Luckily for all of us, only dinosaurs use wins as a relevant pitching statistic and for good reason. Degrom also has thrown 31 post season innings under a sub 3 era, which is not nothing, outside of Yankee land. Thanks for reminding me of another point. Degrom is pitching in close games or behind virtually every start. He could never take his foot off the gas and still made it look easier than anyone ever has.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[jhssketchcards]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

de Grom is 37 years old with only 1418 innings pitched in his career. Guidrey retired at 37 with 2392 innings pitched. Saberhagen also retired at 37 with 2562 innings pitched.

de Groms career is nearly half the innings pitched than two pitchers who did not make the hall because they didn't have enough career innings pitched to justify entry.

This is a valid point. While I do see the dominance if deGrom as a point for many who believe he is one if the best all-time, the “all-time” has to be quantified.
He has some great career stats that are all-time, but when compared to say Sandy Koufax, who had a 5 year peak as a pitcher that no one can touch, deGrom’s per 9 stats are a little misrepresenting.
He has only 4 complete games in his 12 year career and only 2 shutouts. Whatever the thoughts are about how “the game has changed” for pitchers, it still comes down to outs, hits, runs etc.
Since some don’t like comparing deGrom to Saberhagen and Guidry, let’s use Koufax:

Koufax started 176 games from 1962-1966 and completed 100.
DeGrom started 267 his career and has 4 CG.

Koufax threw an astonishing 1,376 IP in those 5 seasons.
DeGrom has thrown 1,418 in his career.

Koufax faced 5,395 batters those 5 years.
DeGrom has faced 5.575 batters in 12 years.

Koufax won 97 games those 5 years.
DeGrom is 88-58 over 12 years.

DeGrom has had injuries for sure. Not his fault. It us certainly easier to rack up counting stats today than it is before because pitchers only go 5 innings or 6.
Had Koufax only had to face hitters 2 times in an order his stats would probably look even better as far as analytics. It’s certainly easier to qualify for tge per 9 stats and ERA/ERA+ when you’re facing less than half the batters former pitching greats did.
Someone also said deGrom may finish top 5 in Ks all-tine…
1. Nolan Ryan 5,714
2. Randy Johnson 4,875
3. Roger Clemens 4,672
4. Steve Carlton 4,136
5. Bert Blyleven 3,701

171. Jacob deGrom 1,719

At age 37 it’s unlikely he gets to 3,000 Ks.

Absolute beast for the time he’s healthy. Unfortunately its just not a lot of his career that can be said. He will definitely be a HOF though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Biohazarddfl]

If koufax pitched these days, no manager would be allowed to let him throw complete games. Sorry but these arguments get more and more ridiculous

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[mfw13]

DeGrom's best season (2018) was a 9.4 bWAR season....and that's one of only THREE seasons he's had >5 WAR.

He's at 43.8 bWAR for his career....that's 145th among all pitchers.

Pitching great is certainly important.....but being healthy and available to pitch is just as important.

Never say never, but I think it's highly unlikely that the writers are going to elect a starter with <2000 IP.

If he can stay healthy for 3-4 more seasons and pitch another 600+ innings, then he's got a shot.

[fabiani12333]

Jacob deGrom vs Johan Santana:

Santana:
ERA+: 136
IP: 2025.2
bWAR: 51.7
WAR7: 45.0
JAWS: 48.3
AS: 4
ERA Titles: 3
Cy Young Award shares: 2.72 (16th all-time)
Black Ink: 42 (45th all-time; 40 is average HoF score)
Championships: 0

deGrom:
ERA+: 156
IP: 1418.0
bWAR: 46.4
WAR7: 39.7
JAWS: 43.1
AS: 4
ERA Titles: 1
Cy Young Award shares: 2.44 (19th all-time)
Black Ink: 12 (250th all-time; 40 is average HoF score)
Championships: 0


Yeah, but deGrom is a lock, right?

[hatchd]

I think a lot of this argument can be summed up by saying it's hard for some people to watch someone that can be argued is the greatest ever at his position (degrom) and not put them in the HOF. The flip side of that is part of the HOF requirement is some sort of sustained greatness/goodness and deGrom doesn't have that IMO. I don't think he's in now but 2-3 more above average seasons would probably do it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

Jacob deGrom vs Johan Santana:

Santana:
ERA+: 136
IP: 2025.2
bWAR: 51.7
WAR7: 45.0
JAWS: 48.3
AS: 4
ERA Titles: 3
Cy Young Award shares: 2.72 (16th all-time)
Black Ink: 42 (45th all-time; 40 is average HoF score)
Championships: 0

deGrom:
ERA+: 156
IP: 1418.0
bWAR: 46.4
WAR7: 39.7
JAWS: 43.1
AS: 4
ERA Titles: 1
Cy Young Award shares: 2.44 (19th all-time)
Black Ink: 12 (250th all-time; 40 is average HoF score)
Championships: 0


Yeah, but deGrom is a lock, right?

An absolute lock. What stat would you say is the best for comparing pitchers?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Skipscards

Yes, why FIP? That’s a question. No one uses FIP as the definitive definition of who the greatest pitcher is of All-Time.

FIP means nothing without adjusting for era and ball park:

Santana:
K%: 24.1% vs 17.3% MLB average (+39%)
BB%: 6.9% vs 8.6 league average (-20%)
HR%: 2.7% vs 2.7% MLB average (+/- 0%)

deGrom:
K%: 30.8% vs 22.0% MLB average (+40%)
BB%: 5.7% vs 8.3% (-31%)
HR%: 2.3% vs 3.0% MLB average (-23%)

So, when adjusting for era, they're even in strikeout rates, but deGrom was better in limiting walks and home runs -- even when subtracting pitchers.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

An absolute lock. What stat would you say is the best for comparing pitchers?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

I'm guessing S-JAWS (Starter JAWS): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

84% of the top 55 non-active starting pitchers on the list are Hall of Famers, with the nine starters not in the Hall including Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. The four active players are Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer. deGrom is 103rd on the list. Santana is 69th. Chris Sale is 75th.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I'm guessing S-JAWS (Starter JAWS): https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml



84% of the top 55 non-active starting pitchers on the list are Hall of Famers, with the nine starters not in the Hall including Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. The four active players are Verlander, Kershaw, Greinke and Scherzer. deGrom is 103rd on the list. Santana is 69th. Chris Sale is 75th.

Jaws isn't really a stat. It's an amalgamation of stats across an arbitrary time frame. Choose a statistic. Fip? Era+ ? Is this the first time you've had to judge a pitcher? What do you look at to determine if a pitcher is good this year? Why is Paul Skenes good?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

An absolute lock. What stat would you say is the best for comparing pitchers?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

Career WAR.....since it's the best stat out there that incorporates both quantitative success AND longevity.

DeGrom is currently at 43.8.....no starting pitcher with a bWAR <60 has been elected by the BBWAA in the past fifty years.

[corockies]

Cole Hamels
Adam Wainwright
Jon Lester

Which of these 3 are gonna make it? All? None?

[Rbradleigh]

Originally Posted by corockies

Cole Hamels
Adam Wainwright
Jon Lester

Which of these 3 are gonna make it? All? None?

My guess of BBWA is none and then by a Veterans Committee maybe.
Separately, my final memory of Wainwright is him somewhat shamefully holding on for Win #200 at a time where I wouldn’t consider him to be a major leaguer. When it goes, it really goes.

Hall of Very good and in same tier as the “Big 3; Mulder; Hudson & Zito.”

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

Jaws isn't really a stat. It's an amalgamation of stats across an arbitrary time frame. Choose a statistic. Fip? Era+ ? Is this the first time you've had to judge a pitcher? What do you look at to determine if a pitcher is good this year? Why is Paul Skenes good?

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

We live in the Statcast era -- I use xERA. But this is a discussion on the Hall of Fame prospects of certain candidates. That's why I use S-JAWS -- it strongly correlates with Hall of Fame induction.

[fabiani12333]

Judge and deGrom are pretty much in the same boat -- not enough full seasons and overall volume.

Judge has only had at least 500 PA in a season four times. Likewise, deGrom has only pitched 150 innings four times. Those would be unprecedented totals for non-Negro League Hall of Famers at their respective positions.

Both need like three more full seasons under their belts -- Judge less so if he can win his third MVP this season.

deGrom needs maybe 600 more innings and 15 bWAR. Judge needs to at least match the number of games Roger Maris played -- 1,463 -- which would require another 426. It should take his bWAR up close to the average for Hall of Fame right fielders -- 69.7.

[49ersSF]

Judge also broke the rookie home run record. He broke the AL single-season home run record. Many would consider him now the all-time single-season home run record holder as Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa are all tainted by steroids.

These are heavy factors when you look at an individuals career as a whole. Additionally, he has the potential to break the record for post-season career home runs as well as hitting the 500 home run mark.

Jacob de Grom was definitely a great pitcher when able to play, but he has absolutely no historical achievements outside his 2 Cy Youngs. The problem for him is that Tim Lincecum, Corey Kluber, Bret Saberhagen, Denny McClain, Johan Santana, and Blake Snell all have 2 Cy Youngs as well, and none of them are in the Hall of Fame.

Getting into the Hall of Fame is a career achievement. Milestones, records, post-season achievements, and much more all factor into a person's career.

[Biohazarddfl]

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

We live in the Statcast era -- I use xERA. But this is a discussion on the Hall of Fame prospects of certain candidates. That's why I use S-JAWS -- it strongly correlates with Hall of Fame induction.

I like Xera as well. Where would Degrom's lifetime mark be, 2.7 ish? That's absolute domination. He's been dominant every year in the league. The voters know it when they see it. If he slid off like Saberhagen, then it would be a different story.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[Noles939913]

Originally Posted by Biohazarddfl

I like Xera as well. Where would Degrom's lifetime mark be, 2.7 ish? That's absolute domination. He's been dominant every year in the league. The voters know it when they see it. If he slid off like Saberhagen, then it would be a different story.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

He was absolutely dominant in 2024…for all 10 innings he was able to pitch.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Judge also broke the rookie home run record. He broke the AL single-season home run record. Many would consider him now the all-time single-season home run record holder as Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa are all tainted by steroids.

These are heavy factors when you look at an individuals career as a whole. Additionally, he has the potential to break the record for post-season career home runs as well as hitting the 500 home run mark.

Jacob de Grom was definitely a great pitcher when able to play, but he has absolutely no historical achievements outside his 2 Cy Youngs. The problem for him is that Tim Lincecum, Corey Kluber, Bret Saberhagen, Denny McClain, Johan Santana, and Blake Snell all have 2 Cy Youngs as well, and none of them are in the Hall of Fame.

Getting into the Hall of Fame is a career achievement. Milestones, records, post-season achievements, and much more all factor into a person's career.

Judge gets 500 HR, he's in. Will he? Probably, but it's not a lock.

Remember when we all "knew" that Mike Trout was a lock for 600 HR? Hell, at this point, he might not get to 400 (joking, but 500 really might not happen). Trout is still in, not debating that, just to be clear.

[fabiani12333]

Originally Posted by 49ersSF

Judge also broke the rookie home run record. He broke the AL single-season home run record. Many would consider him now the all-time single-season home run record holder as Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa are all tainted by steroids.

These are heavy factors when you look at an individuals career as a whole. Additionally, he has the potential to break the record for post-season career home runs as well as hitting the 500 home run mark.

Jacob de Grom was definitely a great pitcher when able to play, but he has absolutely no historical achievements outside his 2 Cy Youngs. The problem for him is that Tim Lincecum, Corey Kluber, Bret Saberhagen, Denny McClain, Johan Santana, and Blake Snell all have 2 Cy Youngs as well, and none of them are in the Hall of Fame.

Getting into the Hall of Fame is a career achievement. Milestones, records, post-season achievements, and much more all factor into a person's career.

But Roger Maris was the previous 162-game home run record holder and a two-time MVP winner, and he's not in the Hall of Fame. Judge also has performed poorly in the postseason -- .205/.318/.450 in 262 PA -- and, unlike Maris, doesn't have a ring.

It's a mix bag however you look at it. But if Judge can win a third MVP this season and have at least a couple of more full seasons under his belt, he should get in.

deGrom pitches in an era when hardly any starter goes 200 innings in a season anymore. I think he'll be viewed more favorably in that context. But he still needs to accrue more full seasons like Judge.